Media

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Expert Observer

One of the greatest causes of confusion for real estate consumers is the way research companies compile data on prices - and the way media outlets report the results of that research.

Media tends to report price information from each individual research firm as fact, without making any reference to the reality that it’s simply one firm’s view of the situation, based on their individual methodology.

Media will report, for example, that Canberra house prices have increased 14% in the past year. Fact. Because CoreLogic has published a press release saying this is the case. And therefore the Canberra market is booming

But the latest figures from the ABS claim that Canberra house prices have increased around 6% over 12 months. Therefore, the Canberra market is showing solid growth but you wouldn’t classify that as a boom.

But, wait. The latest data from SQM Research suggests that Canberra house prices are up just 0.4% in the past year. According to those figures, the Canberra market is hardly moving at all.

So Canberra is either stagnating, rising moderately or booming, depending on which research source you use.

But mainstream media doesn’t reveal that to real estate consumers. It reports each data release from sources such as Domain, CoreLogic, the ABS and SQM Research as gospel. 

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And then publishes commentary pieces making all kinds of assumptions and conclusions based on the premise that the published figures are fact. 

For example, “Canberra houses are growing beyond the reach of many buyers, with prices up 14% in the past 12 months”. That’s based on CoreLogic data. But other sources disagree, including one that says Canberra prices haven’t moved at all in the past year.

I’ve put together a compilation of the latest price growth figures from three different sources – SQM, the ABS and CoreLogic - which shows the annual percentage growth in house prices and apartment prices in each of the capital cities.

According to two sources, Sydney apartment prices overall have shown small growth in the past year, but the third source suggests prices are still down 5%.

Melbourne house prices, in annual terms, are recovering and starting to grow again, according to two sources, but are still down based on the data published by the third source.

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According to CoreLogic, Darwin is leading the nation on growth in its house prices, up 16% in the past year. But the ABS and SQM Research record annual rises of 2-3%, well below the levels of other cities.

SQM claims Darwin apartment prices are up almost 20% in the past year, but CoreLogic says the growth is around 10% and the ABS says it’s just 1.1%.

Mainstream media never highlights these discrepancies, but simply reports each new set of figures as a fact.

There are many reasons why these anomalies in the price data occur. 

You might think that the question of whether prices are rising or not, or by how much, is a matter of fact.

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But it isn’t. Each research entity has its own individual methodology and parameters. There are also different time frames involved: the latest data from the ABS is up to the end of 2020, while the CoreLogic figures are up to the end of March 2021 and the SQM figures extend into the current month.

But the biggest problem is that the research firms are attempting the impossible. They’re seeking to distil all the thousands of property transactions in a city as large of Sydney down to a single figure, which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% or 5.3% or 2.5%. 

What’s happening in Bondi is very different to Penrith, and Vaucluse sits in stark contrast to Blacktown. They’re putting sales in suburbs where typical houses cost $5 million into the same melting pot as locations where the average home is $650,000 and expecting it to deliver a meaningful figure for “Sydney houses”.

According to the latest CoreLogic data, the annual growth in median houses in specific suburbs is as follows:-

Manly up 2.5%

Burwood down 8.8%

Cronulla up 21.3%

Blacktown up 7.1%

Rose Bay down 7.2%

Kensington up 3%

Kellyville up 13.2%

Gordon up 9.2%

Mt Druitt up 5%

Vaucluse up 2.5%

Putting all those differences, and hundreds of others, into the algorithm delivers a result which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% in the past year.

Fact.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder

Contrasting property statistics sets buyers back: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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I think we all need to have a cold shower, a few aspirin and a wee lie down.
Then, having calmed down a bit, conduct a rational assessment of our property markets, without the emotion, the self-serving hyperbole and the publicity-seeking rhetoric.
We seem to have arrived at a point where any price rise anywhere in Australia is deemed a crisis. We're also at a point where the argument (it doesn't deserve to be called a debate) about real estate is driven by the people who make the most noise, rather than those with the most knowledge.
And, saddest of all, Australia in 2014 is a place where few people who work in or use the media give a damn about fairness, accuracy or balance. The only thing that matters is the headline or the political points scored or the amount of publicity achieved.
There was a time when journalists performed a worthwhile role. They were the filters through which information and comment had to pass. Claims were challenged, information was checked and alternative views were sought.
No one got to write about a subject unless they had credentials.
Today employees of media organisations are often mere conduits for propaganda. The public is asked to accept that if it's in a press release, it's valid. If someone describing themself as an economist makes a statement, it's likely to be fact. If an offshore "analyst" makes an observation, it's news.
The outcome is a melting pot of extreme views. The missing ingredients are objectivity, scrutiny and balance.
Many journalists no longer feel the need to support their statements with evidence.
A writer from a major media company (not a property specialist but apparently a "personal finance writer") this week stated as fact that Australia has "inflated house prices" and "surging property prices across the country". And that was just the first sentence.
No evidence was presented to back those big statements; we were expected to accept them as truth, despite the writer's lack of expertise and the reality that all the research data contradicts the notion we have "surging property prices across the country". According to the numbers I see every day, it's simply a lie.
On the same day, a writer from a different media company, with even flimsier credentials, sought to justify a pre-conceived attitude that investors exploiting the tax system drive up property prices. He presented graphs which he claimed showed that "whenever investor activity increases, house prices go up".
He saw what he wanted to see but, in reality, the graphs showed nothing of the sort. They showed, in fact, that investors do not lead price rises – they follow them. In every step along the graph line, a change in investor activity came after a change in prices.
My three decades researching real estate has taught me that investors never instigate property booms - they follow them. The biggest force in real estate, always, is the sector comprising home buyers other than first-home buyers, who dominate most markets numerically and have the financial capacity and motivation to pay high prices.
Meanwhile, another columnist with a bee in his bonnet about Asian investors tried to argue that "an influx of murky money from China" had been distorting and inflating our property markets "for years".
There was little in the way of research evidence, just a convoluted set of statements that led to no apparent conclusion.
So there we had, on the same day, three writers, all of them working for major media organisations but none of them with any real estate expertise, all claiming "Australian property prices" were unreasonably high, but each blaming a different bogeyman – one claiming it was foreign investors, another pointing the finger at local investors boosted by negative gearing, and the third blaming slack lending standards.
The one thing they had in common is that they all got it wrong. And probably don't give a damn because the headline is the thing.
So, setting aside all the ego-driven noise, here's a reality check.
Sydney remains the only city to have produced boom growth to date. The figure so many misguided commentators keep quoting – and describing as "the surge in Australian property prices" – is nothing more than the average increase across the capital cities, greatly inflated by Sydney's growth.
The key thing is this: Sydney's upturn follows 10 years of under-performance. Even with the rises of the past year or so, Sydney's average growth over the past decade is still below par. As a number of the more rational observers have commented, Sydney has been playing catch-up. But, despite the recent increases, it still hasn't caught up.
Here are some examples of what I mean. The median house price for <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Vaucluse</a> has increased 17% in the past 12 months, according to Australian Property Monitors, but the average annual rise in the past five years is just 1.4%. The 10-year growth average is 3% per year.
The median unit price for <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Point Piper</a> is up 17% in 12 months, but the 10-year average is 1.5% per year. In real terms, they've lost value over the past decade.
In <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Darling Point</a>, the median unit price today is lower than it was 10 years ago, despite the recent growth. They've lost money, even without allowing for inflation.
Heading out west to a more mainstream and affordable market, the suburb of <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Blacktown</a> (Sydney's most popular suburb in terms of sales volumes) has recorded 18% median price growth in the past year, but it's 10-year average is just 3% per year.
You'll find similar numbers right across the Sydney metropolitan area. Even when you examine above-average performers, the numbers are still modest. Balgowlah's five-year growth average is 5% per year; its 10-year performance is 4.1% per year.
All the froth and bubble in the media is being caused almost exclusively by Sydney's growth, but in reality Sydney's long-term performance remains decidedly poor.
Take the recent Sydney growth out of the equation and the average growth in the past year across the other seven capital cities is 4-5%. And that follows several years of price decline.
But, amid the prevailing atmosphere that any price rise is a national disgrace, even that number would be described by some as a bubble.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can reach Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Headline obsessed writers need a reality check

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The many positive market indicators 
Here are some questions that go to the heart of how mainstream media reports residential property:- 
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li3">Why does most of the media ignore the data from the ABS, realestate.com.au, Domain, SQM Research and the REIA? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are growth figures for Regional Australia markets seldom published? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are alternative measures of property markets - like vacancies, rents and land prices - seldom published? </li>
</ol>
The answer to all those questions is this: mainstream media is interested in negatives. They publish CoreLogic data because it’s the most pessimistic. Most other sources contradict CoreLogic figures, providing a different perspective on what’s truly happening in our markets. 
Mainstream media ignores Regional Australia because that’s where most of the big growth markets are – or because events outside of our major cities are deemed to be unimportant. 
Media seldom focuses on vacancies/rents because they tell a positive story. Vacancies are falling in most capital cities and rents are up in most city markets. 
According to recent price data published by Louis Christopher’s SQM Research, half of our capital city markets are up, compared with a year ago. In some cases, they are up only marginally, but they are up nevertheless. 
City markets with prices higher than a year ago are: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li3">Adelaide houses </li>
<li class="li3">Brisbane houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Darwin apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart houses </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Melbourne apartments </li>
</ul>
Most reports on prices exclude regional Australia, which means our most upbeat markets receive little or no airplay.
Regional Victoria is, I believe, the strongest market in the nation. Big price growth in being recorded in many of its markets, including Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.
Pretty much everywhere in Regional Tasmania has rising prices. In Regional New South Wales, 85% of locations have rising prices, according to our recent location-by-location survey. 
Parts of Regional Queensland have strong growth markets – with the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, including the Noosa precinct, up more than 20% in annual terms (the median price for Sunshine Beach has risen 36% in the past year).
This contradicts constant media claims that prices are falling across Australia. 
The situation is even more positive with the rental markets of the capital cities. 
Of the 16 capital city markets (each city has a house market and a unit market), 12 have rents higher than a year ago. Only four markets, those in Sydney and Darwin, have rents in decline, according to the SQM Research figures. The latest numbers from rent.com.au have similar conclusions. 
This reflects vacancy rate figures, which show that most of our major cities have vacancy rates lower than a year ago, with four of them - Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart and Adelaide - having vacancies below 1.8%. The capital city average is a little above 2%. 
Equally, the ongoing rise in residential land prices in our major cities receives little coverage in mainstream media. If it’s not negative, they’re not interested. 
Research shows that most households with mortgages are comfortably handling their repayments. There’s positive news on affordability from our biggest cities. There are growing signs that banks are moving to make borrowing easier. 
If journalists had a different mindset, they could be writing upbeat articles – rather than afflicting consumers with relentless negativity designed to generate clickbait headlines.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Mainstream media only interested in the negatives of property: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The significance of the property price data for March has been grossly underplayed and misinterpreted by the dismal media with which we are afflicted in this country.
Most mainstream media outlets dismissed the positive results achieved in March as largely irrelevant and focused their coverage instead on speculation about the potential outcome a month from now – which was, you guessed it, relentlessly negative although based on nothing more than a narky attitude.
This, rather sadly, perpetuates a pattern that has become evident increasingly as Australia deals with the health and economic consequences of the pandemic.
There is, by and large, a wave of “we’re all in this together” community spirit which has seen various sections of society rise to this very difficult occasion to do what’s best for the nation and its people – with the notable exception of our scurrilous media.
The Federal Opposition has essentially adopted a bipartisan approach (with some exceptions) to put minimal objections in front of the Government’s decisions to deal with a mind-boggling situation. The major banks have made it known that they will help struggling customers with responses such as mortgage payment holidays. Businesses that are thriving in these peculiar circumstances have extended new jobs to some of those who have been stood down from hospitality and other impacted sectors. Some of the nation’s wealthiest, such as mining magnate Andrew Forrest, have used their muscle to help with medical supplies or to sponsor medical research. With some exceptions, there are efforts by commercial landlords and tenants to reach a win-win accommodation.
There are plenty of other examples where normal commercial or personal practices have been suspended in a spirit of helping out in these unique times.
The great glaring exception to this has been mainstream media – our major newspapers and television news bulletins. Having been presented with the most sensational news story of our time, which requires no embellishment or need for beat-up, most forms of media have milked it for all its worth.
The relentless, hardline negativity of the coverage has been breathtaking to behold. Journalists have focused on every negative event or statistic with barely concealed glee and ignored the positives. There’s been a stark absence of balance.
We’ve had graphic depictions of the jobs lost and the Centrelink queues, but the considerable number of new positions being created by thriving businesses has been largely ignored. We’ve heard about the new coronavirus cases and each death is morbid detail but not about the numbers who have recovered nor about evidence of the curve flattening.
I’ve spoken to many people who say they have stopped tuning into news bulletins because they’re fed up with the negativity and the absence of any kind of helpful spirit in our media. I totally sympathize. I’ve stopped watching ABC television news, as one example, because of their tabloid mentality. The only place I can find balanced coverage is SBS television.
Australia is full of frightened people. No one has experienced anything quite like this and people are justifiably scared about the health issues, the economic consequences and the disintegration of normal life. And our media is making if worse – far worse than it needs to be.
One of the factors evident here is an absence of understanding by journalists of what their customers want from them. I don’t think the average journo spends a single moment of any day thinking about the needs of the people who buy their products. It’s all about the story, the headline - the more sensationally negative the better and to hell with the consequences.
And so we come the coverage of the property price data for the month of March, published last week. The raw data was a good news story amid the carnage. Every capital city and all the regional markets bar one recorded growth in house prices during March.
Given that the first share market meltdown occurred on 20 February and the event that’s causing the economic crisis is gargantuan, I would have expected some kind of adverse reaction in the housing market in March, but there wasn’t one. And that’s remarkable, but you wouldn’t know if from the miserable response of mainstream media.
Here’s a sample of the headlines:
• Ominous signs the property market is running out of steam – and fast. • Storms clouds roll over national house prices. • Frightening detail hidden in housing data. • Don’t expect property prices to rise this year. • It’s just a matter of time before coronavirus reduces property gains. • Housing market not immune as cracks show in Sydney and Melbourne. • Housing values slowing rapidly as virus weakens consumer sentiment.
The worst of the negativity has come from Fairfax newspapers, headed by the Australian Financial Review, which tends to regard residential real estate as something to be attacked rather than reported.
One Fairfax journo illustrated the mentality with this introduction to an article: “The news from CoreLogic that residential property values continued to climb in March looks positive at first blush – but a deeper delve shows signs are starting to emerge ….”
This is standard procedure for some journos: ignore the positives and keep digging until you find a negative and focus on that. And if you can’t find a negative among the facts, you can always call the usual suspects who are willing to make doomsday forecasts. Some property writers have them on speed dial.
We all know the analogy about those who see the glass half full and those who perceive it as half empty. There’s a third category for Fairfax journalists – those who see the glass as completely empty.
It’s beyond sad. If you had a friend or family member with this kind of mentality, you would be urging them to seek help from a mental health professional.
I’m not kidding myself that real estate is immune to a virus-induced downturn. It’s still early in the story and some markets will take a hit. But I do expect it to be short-term and I do expect a notable recovery.
And I do think it remarkable that real estate survived the March we have just had with values rising in virtually every market across the nation. It says something about the strength of our markets going into the crisis and resilience of real estate in times of adversity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Media is overlooking the positive and regurgitating negativity: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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An article by the Fairfax Media Domain executive editor on Australia's richest man, the property developer Harry Triguboff has been taken down from the Sydney Morning Herald Domain website.
But not before several thousand shares after its brief Saturday posting.
The article about a hospital attendance was uploaded <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/execute_search?text=triguboff&amp;ss=smh.com.au%2Fexecute_search.html" target="_blank">at around 7am Saturday morning</a>.  
Only a cached version is accessible.
The now unpublished Domain article, which came with two seemingly surreptitious waiting room photos of the billioniare, was headlined:
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<div>
<h1>Australia’s richest person, Harry Triguboff is in public hospital waiting room</h1>
</div>
</div>
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<div><img src="https://static.domain.com.au/domainblog/uploads/2016/05/27211336/2_gp63to.jpg" alt="Australia's richest person, Harry Triguboff, at St Vincents on Friday morning." width="750" height="421"></div>
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<div>The removed article noted just days after being named the nation’s richest person that the property developer Harry Triguboff was "mixing with the hoi polloi at St Vincents (sic) Emergency. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Emerging from his Mercedes, with the aid of an aluminium stick, Triguboff, 83, who has built more apartments in Australia than anyone else, walked slowly through the doors."</div>
<div>
<img src="https://static.domain.com.au/domainblog/uploads/2016/05/27211336/3_gp6a30.jpg" alt="Harry Triguboff has no plans to retire and will celebrate his top dog status on the Rich List with his many employees next week." width="353" height="465" style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">
“I’m just returning this boot, and I need to have some X-rays,” the article said he told the triage nurse in the Friday morning attendance.
He’d tripped over his little black four-month-old poodle, Susie, a week ago, and broken his toe.
“She was just playing,” he advised.
The SMH article author, Stephen Nicholls noted, "in the X-ray waiting room, I congratulated him on making it to the top of BRW’s list."
Triguboff topped the Fairfax Media's 2016 BRW Rich 200 list for the first time with $10.62 billion in wealth.
“Yes thank you, I’ve never been number one,” he said, again grinning broadly, the article noted.
“I’ve been number three a couple of times.”
What now for him, <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:DakGh3FCYtcJ:www.domain.com.au/news/australias-richest-person-harry-triguboff-is-in-public-hospital-waiting-room-20160527-gp6238/+&amp;cd=4&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=au" target="_blank">Nicholls said he asked?</a>
"Any plans to retire? “Retire – what would I do?” he said, adding he’s “now got so much money, I don’t know what to do with it all”.
The Australian's Margin Call business gossip column had written of Harry's busted foot mid-last week illustrated with a <a href="https://nicholsoncartoons.com.au/2016-05-26-harry-triguboff-broke-his-foot-is-the-week-before-announcement-of-australias-richest-person-cartoon" target="_blank">Nicholson cartoon</a>.
*Jonathan Chancellor was the SMH property editor from 1986 to 2011, and has been a News Corp Australia property columnist since 2015.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

SMH Domain unpublishes article on Harry Triguboff's broken toe

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Some 2.8 million Australians regularly read at least one magazine in the Home &amp; Garden category, according to a new report.
Roy Morgan noted a clear majority of seven of the 11 magazines in the category increasing their readership over the last year.
The largest increase was for Belle which increased its readership by 21% to 117,000 while Gardening Australia is now read by 545,000 Australians after an impressive increase of 20%.
Other Home &amp; Garden titles which grew their readership include Home Beautiful which was up 11% to 340,000, Real Living up 19% to 103,000 and House &amp; Garden up 1.5% to 543,000.
By far the leading magazine in the category remains Better Homes and Gardens, maintaining its leadership with a readership of 1,513,000 (down 11.1%).
Last August, Better Homes and Gardens had a readership of 1,671,000 (down 3.6%).
In August 2017, it had a readership of 1,728,000, down 6.8% on the 1,854,000 in August 2016.
Overall the Business, Financial and Airline magazines readership experienced a small decrease of 1.4% over the last year to 1,560,000 (7.6% of the population).
Performing strongly was the recently sold, leading finance magazine title Money Magazine which increased readership by 18% to 149,000.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Better Homes and Gardens readership slips to 1.5 million

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Over the past decade the profits of 160-odd regional and rural publications that make up the former Fairfax business division known as Australian Community Media (ACM) have <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/07/26/regional-newspapers-risk-nine-takeover-fairfax/" target="_blank">fallen steeply</a>.
In 2012 the division made a A$169 million profit. In 2018 it was A$67.5 million.
Nine Entertainment Co acquired the division with its $3 billion takeover of Fairfax Media last year. It has been keen to get rid of it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/nine-boss-flags-divestments-in-matter-of-months-20181209-p50l5b" target="_blank">ever since</a>.
There are grounds for some optimism about the long-anticipated <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-30/nine-sells-fairfax-community-newspapers-to-the-cat/11058066" target="_blank">sale</a>. It may signal better fortunes for regional publishing. But any optimism must be tempered by ongoing concerns about the viability of the local news business model.
What’s in the deal?
ACM’s new owner is a 50:50 partnership between real estate advertising mogul Antony Catalano and Thorney Investment Group. They are paying Nine A$125 million for the 160-odd mastheads and 130 associated websites. The deal involves Nine getting $10 million of advertising space, and content and printing sharing arrangements for a period of time.
Thorney Investment Group has established itself over the past 25 yeas as one of the most profitable investors in Australian property and resources. Its foray into local news may appear somewhat peripheral to its general investment profile, despite an ongoing investment in Domain, Fairfax’s real estate brand, which was listed as a separate entity on the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/DHG/details" target="_blank">Australian Stock Exchange</a> in 2017.
Catalano, on the other hand, has a long and colourful history with Fairfax’s real estate classifieds business. He is expected to chair the new company.
A one-time property editor at The Age, he was made redundant in 2008 and went on to found, with the backing of major real estate brokers, the free property magazine The Weekly Review.
The magazine took off, winning business away from The Age’s real estate pages. In 2011 Fairfax bought half of Catalano’s Metro Media Publishing business <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/14874-fairfax-pays-35-million-for-half-of-the-weekly-review" target="_blank">for A$35 million</a>. It bought the other half in 2015 (for <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/group/press_release/fairfax-acquires-100-interest-mmp/" target="_blank">A$72 million</a>). It then merged the business with Domain, putting Catalano at the helm.
He left his role with Domain in January last year, just two months <a href="https://mumbrella.com.au/antony-catalano-buys-nines-regional-newspapers-576941" target="_blank">after its successful listing</a> on the Australian Stock Exchange. Reportedly his resignation came amid complaints of a <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/antony-catalano-the-fall-of-a-party-boy-20180207-h0v13z">party-boy culture</a> in the Domain workplace.
Catalano’s successful bid for Domain is a particular coup. He <a href="https://mumbrella.com.au/former-domain-ceo-antony-catalano-makes-play-for-fairfax-media-552799" target="_blank">attempted to thwart Nine’s takeover bid</a> of Fairfax at the 11th hour by proposing to buy 19.9% of Fairfax shares.
Bidding against him and Thorney were private equity giants Anchorage Capital Partners and Allegro Funds. Seven West’s regional TV affiliate, Prime Media Group, and News Corp were also rumoured to have been interested.
Changing priorities
A few months ago Crikey labelled ACM’s impending sale a “<a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/02/28/nine-regional-papers-community/" target="_blank">blueprint for disaster</a>” regardless of who won the bid, describing closures and consolidation of some local papers as “almost certain”.
Catalano, on the other hand, has talked up the potential of the larger daily regional mastheads. These include The Canberra Times, The Newcastle Herald, The Border Mail (based in Albury), The Illawarra Mercury (in Wollongong), The Ballarat Courier, The Examiner (in Launceston), and the Bendigo Advertiser. Between them, these papers reach about half ACM’s total audience of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/how-will-antony-catalano-revive-regional-newspapers/11061236" target="_blank">up to eight million</a> people.
Catalano says he is looking to invest “<a href="https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/6098933/new-owner-vows-to-beef-up-mercury-after-buying-regional-newspaper-group-from-nine/" target="_blank">aggressively</a>” in these areas.
Without offering much detail, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/how-will-antony-catalano-revive-regional-newspapers/11061236" target="_blank">he has intimated</a> there were ways to monetise ACM’s audience that didn’t happen under Fairfax, due to it having “bigger priorities in the face of very significant structural decline in the newspaper business”.
“Under us, it’s our only priority,” he said.
However, when pushed on whether there would be efficiencies, including redundancies and closures, he conceded there was likely to be some “consolidation” <a href="https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/6098933/new-owner-vows-to-beef-up-mercury-after-buying-regional-newspaper-group-from-nine/?src=rss&amp;utm_email=b9ee389143&amp;utm_source=Illawarra+Mercury&amp;utm_campaign=5ada9e8bb5-NEWSLETTER_EDITORS_PICK_DAILY&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_63532331c1-5ada9e8bb5-65999933" target="_blank">in print operations</a>.
Such consolidation might echo Fairfax’s 2017 <a href="https://mumbrella.com.au/fairfax-to-shut-six-community-newspapers-11-jobs-to-go-482887" target="_blank">merger of six Western Sydney suburban newspapers</a> into a single North West Magazine.
The state of local journalism
It would be naive to be overly hopeful about a new dawn for regional newspapers given the broader context of the Australian news industry.
According to the journalists’ union, the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance, at least <a href="https://www.meaa.org/download/meaa-submission-to-public-interest-journalism-inquiry-170714/" target="_blank">3,000 journalism jobs</a> have been lost since mass redundancies began about seven years ago. Cutbacks, the union says, have seen “rural and regional audiences lose their "voice” and their access to local information".
At the regional daily with the largest readership, The Newcastle Herald, the editorial staff has been cut from about 100 to less than 24.
Workloads have escalated in consequence. Veteran journalist and union rep <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/newcastle-herald-cuts-hit-hard/9973134" target="_blank">Ian Kirkwood told ABC’s Media Watch</a> that journalists, perhaps once expected to produce one or two news stories a day, were now required to produce six, including headlines and photographs.
The New Beats study, a <a href="http://www.newbeatsblog.com/" target="_blank">comprehensive longitudinal study</a> of redundancies in Australian journalism since 2012, calculates the total revenue of Australian newspapers <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/19938/2/New%20Beats%20Submission%20to%202018%20Future%20of%20Work%20Inquiry.pdf">fell</a> from A$6.2 billion in 2007-08 to A$3 billion in 2016-17.
The New Beats researchers say the “market failure of regional journalism” is that local advertising is simply insufficient to make a local newspaper financially viable. How Catalano is going to change that, given his stated <a href="https://mainstreetwiththeabcspeterryan.blogspot.com/2019/05/antony-catalano-dismisses-paywalls-as" target="_blank">opposition to paywalls</a>, is an open question.
But given the unrelenting bad news faced by newspaper newsrooms over the past decade, it’s no surprise journalists are hoping for the best. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-30/nine-sells-fairfax-community-newspapers-to-the-cat/11058066" target="_blank">ABC reports</a> that sources within the Canberra Times regard the deal as the best of available options. The Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance has expressed cautious optimism, <a href="https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/6098933/new-owner-vows-to-beef-up-mercury-after-buying-regional-newspaper-group-from-nine/" target="_blank">tempered by concerns</a> investment in the larger regional mastheads will come at the expense of smaller publications.
Only time will tell whether it is the hopes or the fears that are the most prophetic.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116359/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Steinar Ellingsen, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Communication and Media, University of Wollongong
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-dark-decade-for-australias-regional-newspapers-a-hopeful-light-flickers-116359" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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