Jobs Growth

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<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""> <div>Source: Department of Employment</div>
 <div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
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<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
 <div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
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<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
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<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
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<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
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 <div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
 Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank (RBA) maintained its targets for the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.25 per cent (quarter of a per cent or 25 basis points). The Reserve Bank left the door open to further easing.
What has changed since the last Board meeting on September 1?
After slipping by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, the Australian economy contracted by 7.0 per cent in the June quarter (survey -6 per cent). It was the biggest quarterly decline in output since quarterly records began in 1959.
The NAB business confidence index improved from -8.2 points to -3.8 points in September. The business conditions index improved from -6.2 points to an 8-month high of +0.4 points.
The US President and First Lady both tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.
Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000). The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent). It was the biggest monthly fall in the jobless rate in 32 years (July 1988).
The US Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25 per cent. All but four policymakers expect rates to remain near zero through to 2023. The Fed will target an inflation rate a little above 2 per cent.
Retail trade fell by 4 per cent in August after rising by 3.2 per cent in July. Retail trade is up 7.1 per cent over the year.
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices fell by just 0.1 per cent in September. Prices were up 4.8 per cent over the year.
Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) was broadly unchanged in August (survey: -0.1 per cent) to be up 2.2 per cent on the year – the slowest annual growth rate in over 10 years.
Total household wealth rose by 1.5 per cent to $11,131.8 billion in the June quarter, a partial reversal of the 2.5 per cent fall in the March quarter.
The Aussie dollar has eased from US74 cents to US70-72 cents.
The assessment
The Reserve Bank has left the door open to more stimulus. But at present there is no reason to be contemplating options. The Reserve Bank may consider further ‘monetary easing’ but that may not mean more rate cuts, rather bond purchases.
Perspectives on interest rates
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 0.25 per cent after previously cutting rates on March 3 and March 19, 2020, each by 25 basis points. There have been 17 rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75 per cent. Previously rates rose seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.
What are the implications of today’s decision?
Interest rates will remain at record low levels until at least 2023. That is the good news for the business sector and home buyers. People can go about their lives and not have to worry about rates rising or falling.
The Federal Budget is handed down in a few hours’ time. The intention is to create and maintain jobs, and that is better achieved by fiscal measures rather than monetary policy. The Reserve Bank noted that ‘addressing the high rate of unemployment’ was a ‘national priority.’
There are actually two key factors that will influence economic recovery: jobs and confidence. And the best way the Reserve Bank can boost confidence is to leave interest rate settings unchanged. Consumers must have confidence to spend and business must have confidence to employ, spend and invest.
If the job market was to weaken markedly, the Reserve Bank could certainly contemplate a modest rate cut from 25 basis points to 10 basis points. Or increase government bond purchases. Discussion about negative interest rates would probably return as well. But it is clear that the Bank now can only do so much – stimulus is more a matter for federal, state and territory governments.
And of course, success at achieving solid economic recovery is to a large extent out of policymaker hands. It’s all about ‘flattening the curve’, virus treatments and vaccines.
Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
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RBA's focus is on jobs: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent). It was the biggest monthly fall in the jobless rate in 32 years (July 1988).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year. 
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending.
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What does it all mean?
There is no doubt that this is a stunning set of job figures – especially considering that nation’s second largest economy was in lockdown throughout the month. More people were looking for jobs in August, more people found jobs, and more employees reconnected to their workplaces. The jobless rate fell sharply and a six-digit gain in jobs was recorded.
More than 86,000 unemployed people found work. The cherry on top was a drop in the youth jobless rate from 16.3 per cent to 14.3 per cent. The job programs are clearly working as intended.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/UNEMPLOYMENT%20RATE.png" alt="">
JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been instrumental in supporting the job market, spending and the broader economy. But the programs have made it more difficult in working out what is going on, specifically in the job market. But these are extraordinary times and the job programs are similarly remarkable.
There will still be bumps on the road ahead. But the federal, state and territory governments, Reserve Bank, unions and businesses can all claim credit for today’s stunning job figures.
However the hope is that the unemployment rate will now peak well below official forecasts of near 10 per cent. In fact, for this to occur at least 400,000 jobs would have to be shed by year-end – unlikely with Victoria’s restrictions being eased. And the aim has to be to be quickly get people back in jobs because the longer that people are out of work, the less employable they become.
The data shows a return to work of sole traders but fewer job gains for employees. That makes sense in that the economy is still only gradually re-opening. But it is an encouraging trend. 
Australia may be technically in recession like most of the globe, but it continues to be a non-typical recession. Consumer spending continues to rise as Kogan confirmed yesterday. Home prices are rising in many parts of the country. 
Home sales are lifting, underpinned by HomeBuilder. And infrastructure projects support commercial and engineering construction sectors. Despite tensions with China, our largest trading partner is hoovering up record volumes of iron ore and gold exports are expected to hit record highs, courtesy of pandemic demand.
The latest job data coincides with more data on job ads from SEEK, showing (ex-Victoria) another 1.8 per cent lift in vacancies in August.
What do the figures show? 
Labour force – August
Employment rose by 111,000 in August (survey forecast: -35,000) after rising by an upwardly-revised 119,200 jobs in July (previously reported as an 114,700 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 36,200 and part-time jobs rose by 74,800.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/EMPLOYMENT%20COMMSEC.png" alt="">
The unemployment rate fell from a 22-year high of 7.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent in August (survey forecast: 7.7 per cent).
Hours worked rose from 1.682 million hours to 1.683 million hours (up 0.1 per cent) but were down 5.1 per cent over the year.
The ABS noted: "Employment rose almost 1 per cent but hours worked rose by a more modest 0.1 per cent. Hours fell by 4.8 per cent in Victoria, compared to a 1.8 per cent increase across the rest of Australia.”
The weaker increase in hours worked has also been reflected in the strength of the increase in part-time employment between May and August, which has been almost eight times greater than the increase in full-time employment.”
The participation rate rose from 64.7 per cent to 64.8 per cent in August.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/PARTICIPATION%20RATE.png" alt="">
In August, the underutilisation rate fell from 18.7 per cent to 18.0 per cent. The underemployment rate was broadly steady at 11.2 per cent.
Unemployment across states and territories in August: NSW 6.7 per cent (July 7.2 per cent); Victoria 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent); Queensland 7.5 per cent (8.8 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 7.0 per cent (8.3 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.0 per cent); Northern Territory 4.2 per cent (7.5 per cent); ACT 4.2 per cent (4.6 per cent).
In August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people except for Victoria. The number of employed people in Victoria decreased by 42,400. In contrast, New South Wales recorded an increase of 51,500 employed people and there was an increase of 32,200 employed people in Western Australia.
Over the three months to August 2020, all states and territories recorded increases in the number of employed people, led by gains in NSW (+188,100), followed by Queensland (+90,300), Western Australia (+73,400), South Australia (+33,400), Tasmania (+15,800), ACT (+11,900), Victoria (+9,500) and Northern Territory (+2,800).
ABS: “The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 0.3 pts to 65.7% in August 2020. Employment for 15-24 year olds increased by 28,800 people (1.6%). The unemployment rate for this group decreased by 2.0 pts to 14.3%.”
The ABS highlighted the gains in jobs by sole traders: “In original terms, there was a 44,500 net increase in employment between July and August. This growth in original employment can be attributed to an increase in the number of owner managers (self-employed people) without employees, most of whom working in an unincorporated enterprise (e.g. a sole trader), which increased by 50,200 (Chart 1). In contrast, there was minimal growth in the number of employees (up 2,600).”
What are the implications for investors?
Australia continues to do well. The ABS notes that the US jobless rate was 8.4 per cent in July and the jobless rate was 10.2 per cent in Canada. Estimates for Australia on a similar basis were 7.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent.
The “effective” rate of unemployment is estimated at 9.3 per cent, so there are no grounds for complacency.
The resilience of the Aussie job market continues to provide support for retailers and the housing market. While challenges lie ahead, many retailers have adapted well to the new environment, especially the focus on online sales. 
Aussies need to collectively take a deep breath ahead of the wind down of JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes over the next six months. The hope is that stronger operating conditions and reduced support payments will encourage workers to re-join the job market. Today’s virus case numbers in Victoria also offer reasons to be positive.
As noted Australia continues to do well, but challenges lie ahead. Note other data today showed the New Zealand economy contracting by 12.2 per cent in the June quarter – much more than 7 per cent Aussie decline. Getting the right balance between health and economic issues will be critical in the months ahead. NSW is showing the way with the most jobs created or reinstated in the past three months while keeping its borders open for business and implementing effective virus testing and tracing to keep the virus in check.
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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"Stunning" August jobs data as employment rose 111,000: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Employment rose by a record 210,800 in June after falling by 264,100 in May (previously reported as 227,700 decline). Full-time jobs fell by 38,100 and part-time jobs rose by 249,000.
The unemployment rate rose from 7.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent in June. It was the highest jobless rate in 21½ years (since November 1998).
Hours worked rose by 4.0 per cent in June after falling by 0.7 per cent in May. Hours worked are down by 5.7 per cent over the year.
Participation rate: The participation rate rose from a 19½-year low of 62.9 per cent in May to 64.0 per cent in June.
Spare capacity: In June, the underutilisation rate fell from 20.1 per cent to 19.1 per cent. The underemployment rate decreased from 13.1 per cent to 11.7 per cent.
Unemployment across states in June: NSW 6.9 per cent (May 6.4 per cent); Victoria 7.5 per cent (6.9 per cent); Queensland 7.7 per cent (7.8 per cent); South Australia 8.8 per cent (7.9 per cent); Western Australia 8.7 per cent (8.1 per cent); Tasmania 6.9 per cent (6.3 per cent); Northern Territory 5.7 per cent (7.4 per cent); ACT 5.1 per cent (4.1 per cent). Biggest job gains occurred in New South Wales (80,800); Queensland (52.900) and Victoria (29,500).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending.
What does it all mean?
The healing process is beginning – but no one said it was going to be easy. In fact health authorities warned about virus outbreaks and ‘hot spots’ as state and territory economies re-opened. The aim is to keep the virus suppressed rather than aim for elimination as there always is a balance of health and economics.
The lift in jobs in June reflects the re-opening of businesses as they move out of hibernation. It will be important to keep the virus suppressed (contained) so that more workplaces can re-open, more people get work, and there is a progression to relative normalcy.
We shouldn’t get too hung up on historical job market comparisons. The current situation is different to past recessions, being a health emergency rather than an economic emergency. The quick recovery of economies is dependent on a vaccine being found rather than a central bank rate cut or government tax or spending measure. Understandably the published unemployment rate may understate the ‘true’ rate but that is why JobKeeper was devised – to ensure people remain connected to their workplace.
Australia has done well in suppressing the virus and in responding to outbreaks. Vigilance is required. But we can be comforted in the fact that federal; state and territory governments as well as the Reserve Bank are doing all that it takes to support and stimulate the economy.
As well as today’s data on jobs, SEEK reported that job advertisements lifted 41.5 per cent in June. And the Federal Government is unveiling a $2 billion JobTrainer skills package to assist job seekers in returning to the workforce.
We continue to expect the jobless rate to peak around 8 per cent, well short of the generational high of 11.2 per cent set in December 1992. We expect the JobKeeper package to be amended and extended to ensure that the job market and broader economy continue to heal. The hope is that job seekers find employment relatively quickly to ensure they are not ‘locked out’ of the job market. It took 7½ years for the jobless rate from 11.2 per cent to 6.0 per cent in the 1990s/early noughties.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Record lift in jobs as economy reopens: CommSec's Craig James

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The May unemployment rate increased by 85,700 people to 927,600, taking the unemployment rate up to 7.1 per cent, today's ABS figures showed.
It was now at an 18 year high.
The ACT has the lowest unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent.
New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania are the only other states under the national unemployment rate.
New South Wales has the lowest at 6.4 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent in April, and Victoria 6.9 per cent, up from six per cent in April. Tasmania's unemployment rate is 6.4 per cent.
Western Australia's unemployment rate is the highest at 8.1 per cent, then Queensland and South Australia and 7.9 per cent.
The Northern Territory has a unemployment rate of 7.4 per cent. 
In April it sat at 6.4 per cent, and 5.2 per cent in March before COVID-19 took over.
Seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 227,700 people between April and May.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said, "The drop in employment, of close to a quarter of a million people, added to the 600,000 in April, brings the total fall to 835,000 people since March." “In two months, the percentage of people aged 15 and over employed in Australia decreased from around 62.5 per cent to around 58.7 per cent.” As in April, the size of the increase in the unemployment rate in May was reduced by larger than usual numbers of employed and unemployed people leaving the labour force. 
This was reflected in a further fall in the participation rate, down 0.7 percentage points to 62.9 per cent. 
The last time the participation rate was below 63 per cent was in January 2001. Monthly hours worked fell 0.7 per cent in May, to be down 10.2 per cent since March (with the April fall revised up to 9.5 per cent). "The ABS estimates that a combined group of around 2.3 million people - around 1 in 5 employed people - were affected by either job loss between April and May or had less hours than usual for economic reasons in May," Mr Jarvis said.
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy now expects unemployment to reach eight per cent by September, when previously Josh Frydenberg said that the treasury expected in April the jobless rate would peak at 10 per cent in the June quarter before recovering.
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Unemployment reaches new high over 7%: ABS

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GUEST OBSERVATION
When it comes to the outlook for employment, there’s good news and bad news.
To begin with the good news: with a bit of luck, the next few months will see the fastest expansion of employment in Australia’s history.
The bad news? Well, there’s virtually no chance it will be enough to get employment to where it was in March, before the COVID-19 shutdown.
In fact, even on a best-case scenario it’s likely by the end of September we will only be back to the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions.
The best-case scenario
Other Bureau of Statistics data suggests that between mid-March and mid-April employment fell <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EEze6-rwkdcKgJ0iLWD7PfmWoMz8ob6Q/view">1.3 to 1.6 million</a>.
<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-hopes-850-000-back-at-work-by-july-20200508-p54r12">Treasury</a> estimates that the planned reopening of the economy will result in a bounceback of 850,000 jobs.
Suppose that a decrease of 1.3 million turns out to be the trough and recovery is uninterrupted.
Employment at the end of September would then be 440,000 below where it was in March, 3.4% lower.
The turnaround would be a considerable achievement.
But even if it happens, we will have only recovered to around the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, where employment decreased by about 4 per cent.
Employment won’t recover fully in this best-case scenario because some parts of the economy will still be shut down (including international travel) and COVID-19 will continue to cause many consumers to spend less than usual.
That best case is unlikely
There are several reasons to worry about whether the best-case can be achieved.
First, job gains from reopening businesses are likely to be offset by losses in employment in other industries suffering from reduced consumer demand and business investment.
While cafes and restaurants may start up again, Bureau of Statistics data shows that employment has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features5Week%20ending%202%20May%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6160.0.55.001&amp;issue=Week%20ending%202%20May%202020&amp;num=&amp;">begun to decline</a> in large industries such as construction and professional services.
Second, the effects of reopening may not be all we expect. Labour hoarding – where businesses retain more workers than needed during an economic downturn - might mean that reopening doesn’t translate into as many new jobs as expected.
This is likely to be particularly acute given that JobKeeper has effectively paid employers to subsidise labour.
Third, impacts from longer-run structural changes in the economy might begin to cause employment losses, especially as JobKeeper is partially unwound.
So what are we to do?
Even under the best-case scenario employment will be substantially lower than before COVID-19 well into the future. And we can’t presume the best-case will happen. A compelling case exists for substantial ongoing economic stimulus post-September 2020.
The labour market will not have fully recovered by then. To remove stimulus would only set back recovery. The question therefore should not be: is stimulus needed, but rather, what size and type of stimulus is needed.
Continuing JobKeeper beyond September 2020 could have an important role in providing income security to affected workers and macroeconomic stimulus.
It is a known policy, it operates effectively, and it appears to have community support. Replacing it with an alternative type of stimulus could risk harming confidence and the recovery.
We can’t simply end JobKeeper
An extra (and considerable) advantage of continuing JobKeeper is allowing time for a staged transition away from it. Stopping it will inevitably push up unemployment.
A staged transition would spread out that adjustment rather than creating a shock in September.
A transition from JobKeeper could be done via stepped decreases in the size of payment or progressively restricting eligibility as industries or businesses recover. The transition could begin at the end of September, or earlier if it is judged that employment is likely to have already recovered substantially before then.
An objection to retaining JobKeeper is that it is preventing adjustment in the labour market, and disrupting the normal process of businesses starting up and failing.
There are two responses.
First, the question is not about whether JobKeeper should be permanent, but about the timing of its removal.
Whenever it is (or starts to be) removed, labour mobility will return and any firms on life support will disappear. Having this happen via a staged transition is better than having it happen all at once.
Second, the potential economic losses from unemployment in a depressed economy swamp the potential losses from having inefficient firms operating for longer.
Our number one priority has to be maintaining and restoring employment.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139648/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Jeff Borland</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-even-the-best-case-for-jobs-isnt-good-well-need-more-jobkeeper-139648">original article</a>.
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Why even the best case for jobs isn't good, we'll need more JobKeeper

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Today we have run with three charts - Australian dwelling completions, commencements and approvals. The point of this is to illustrate that the current rate cuts are not going to be a job creator for the Australian housing construction industry anytime soon. Naturally it may help other parts of the economy. But not housing construction. To be clear the process of building a property starts at the approval stage. Once approved, building construction commencements normally occur between 6 to 18 months after approvals. And then finally, completions normally occur 18 months to 3 years after approvals.
 
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<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/69a3110b-3f74-4a58-843a-93ff0600815e.png">
Dwelling completions are only peaking now and so there are a whole bunch of projects that are on the verge of completion. Normally once a project is completed, workers move onto the next project. But as we can see on the commencements chart, there are now less commencements than completions. And so there is less work available, meaning more job losses are coming. To make matters worse, building approvals are still tracking south and are considerably lower than commencements. This means even more housing construction job losses are on the way over the course of 2020 and likely, 2021. This will happen despite the interest rate cuts, tax cuts and easier lending standards. As the building approvals illustrate, there has been no response as yet in the form of higher demand for new housing. The real jobs creation phase, where there are labourers and contractors on the ground, naturally happens at the commencements phase and gets slowly wound down as the building gets closer to completion. So with the fall off in building approvals, housing construction is going to be a detraction to GDP for many months to come. This must be quite the concern for the RBA and for the Federal Government for that matter. As you may have guessed, housing construction is not an insignificant proportion of total employment. The RBA places it at just under 6%. The last time this occurred was back in 2011 to 2013. However the country still had the mining boom as a major job creator at that time. For now, mining investment seems to have bottomed out and will moderately pick up over the next 12 to 24 months, therefore taking some of the slack. But no one is expecting a massive uplift in mining. There is of course infrastructure and that may help to an extent. Apparently for FY20 some $13 billion dollars has been estimated to be spent on Infrastructure which should at least keep climbing through to 2023. By comparison, there was some $42 billion dollars’ worth of dwellings approved over the 12 months to September 2019. Infrastructure better help with the offset. And perhaps with mining added, it will. The RBA is forecasting the unemployment rate to fall to 5% by 2021. But no-one really knows for sure. Let’s hope they are right. Otherwise Australian unemployment is going to keep rising in 2020 and that won’t be good for anyone.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research.
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Current rate cuts aren't going to be a job creator for housing construction: SQM's Louis Christopher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Employment rose for the eighth straight month, up by 25,700 in March after a revised 10,700 increase in jobs in February (previously reported as a 4,600 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 48,300, but part-time jobs fell by 22,600. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 15,000.
Hours worked rose by 0.7 per cent in the month to be up 3.0 per cent over the year.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.9 per cent to 5.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms the jobless rate remained steady at a 10-year low of 5.0 per cent.
Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 65.6 per cent to 65.7 per cent. In trend terms the 65.6 per cent participation rate remained at record highs.
Unemployment across states in March: NSW 4.3 per cent (February 4.3 per cent); Victoria 4.6 per cent (4.7 per cent); Queensland 6.1 per cent (5.4 per cent); South Australia 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Western Australia 6.0 per cent (5.9 per cent); Tasmania 6.7 per cent (6.5 per cent). In trend terms, Northern Territory 4.4 per cent (4.5 per cent); ACT 3.6 per cent (3.5 per cent).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.
What does it all mean?
Given the recent softening reported by a raft of business surveys, many analysts had been braced  for a weaker job result in March. But they needn’t have feared. Yet another month where more people were looking for jobs with more people finding work. The jobless rate ticked up from 4.9 per cent to 5 per cent. But that is part of the normal monthly volatility. In trend terms the jobless rate remains locked at a decade low of 5 per cent. Get used to seeing a jobless rate around 5 per cent – there isn’t sufficient positive or negative economic momentum to drive the jobless rate away from 5 per cent.
It is worth noting that the proportion of people in jobs or looking for work (participation rate) is at all-time highs in trend terms with the jobless rate at decade lows.
There was good news for Queensland with the trend jobless rate at 5½-year lows. And the West Australian trend jobless rate is at 15-month lows.
The Reserve Bank expects further tightening of the job market to lead to higher wages and higher prices. That expectation remains on track with SEEK today reporting that national wage growth had ticked up to 2.6 per cent.
Yet another bad month for the ‘gloomsters’. More people are finding work and more are people feeling secure in their positions. In turn, this will lead to stronger spending growth, boosting the outlook for consumer and housing-dependent businesses.
The Reserve Bank can rest easy for another month. Rate cuts are not on the near-term horizon, neither are rate hikes. The Reserve Bank believes the best contribution it could provide is to leave the cash rate steady at record lows. And we heartily agree.
The Aussie dollar rose from US71.70 cents to US71.93 cents before settling back near US71.75 cents. Currency markets are comfortable with the economic state of play.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist of CommSec
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Yet another solid month of job gains: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Over the next decade up to 40% of jobs could be replaced by automation. That’s according to a forecast from the <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/News-and-analysis/Media-releases/More-than-five-million-Aussie-jobs-gone-in-10-to-15-years" target="_blank">Committee for the Economic Development of Australia</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268519/original/file-20190410-2909-q5sxmn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268519/original/file-20190410-2909-q5sxmn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Risk of job automation by country. In New Zealand, for instance, the median worker has 39% chance of their job being automated. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 202
Other estimates are less dire. A report from the <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en" target="_blank">Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</a> says only 14% of jobs across its member nations are “highly automatable”, though another 32% are likely to change significantly.
Despite this <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610005/every-study-we-could-find-on-what-automation-will-do-to-jobs-in-one-chart/" target="_blank">uncertainty about the exact number</a> of human jobs that will disappear, it is certain the impacts of automation driven by artificial intelligence (AI) are potentially profound.
If the new jobs that emerge as a result are fewer and less rewarding than those lost, we face a period of social dislocation.
Yet there is little evidence of any strategic planning and forward thinking by Australia’s federal and state governments to minimise the potential downside. The recent federal budget, for example, was silent on this issue.
It is analogous to the lack of a strategic plan on climate change.
Our concern about the policy vacuum is based on an extensive search on government websites, the media and budget speeches, which disturbingly yielded very little.
We think AI should be an election issue, because there is virtually no <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/artificial-intelligence-automation-jobs-of-the-future/8786962" target="_blank">job</a> that won’t be affected by AI-driven automation. Being ready for this technological and social revolution should be at the heart of any government’s economic and educational reform agenda.
Workers that never rest
The activities at which AI is <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf" target="_blank">expected to outperform</a> humans by 2030 include translating languages, writing high-school essays and driving trucks. By mid-century it is expected AI could be capable of writing a bestselling books or performing surgery.
<a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf" target="_blank">Researchers believe</a> there is a 50% chance AI will outperform humans in all tasks in 45 years and that almost all current human jobs can be automated in 120 years.
 
The World Economic Forum may argue that AI and automation “<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-is-about-people-not-just-machines" target="_blank">is about empowering people, not the rise of the machines</a>” but there are good reasons to think some people will lose out.
Machines have many attractions to employers. They do not need rest, holidays or take sick leave. They will never complain about overtime or join a union.
A <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/australias-automation-opportunity-reigniting-productivity-and-inclusive-income-growth" target="_blank">report published last month</a> by management consultancy McKinsey Australia suggests, if proactive measures are not taken, the unemployment rate could increase by 2.5 percentage points, based on up to 46% of jobs being automated by 2030.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268511/original/file-20190410-2924-1qp6zpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268511/original/file-20190410-2924-1qp6zpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The industries likely to experience the greatest disruption are retail, administration and government, health and social assistance, construction, manufacturing, and accommodation and food services. Australia Statistics, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), ONED, BLS, Oxford Economics
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Inequality will also increase, the report says. To what extent depends on “how much Australia steps up its efforts to retrain and redeploy its surplus service, administrative and manual workers”. Without large-scale retraining, Australia’s Gini coefficient (the standard measure of income inequality) could increase from 0.32 to 0.41.
Questions for policymakers
The stakes are high. Employment is so much more than just an income. A decent job provides <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137437853_1" target="_blank">purpose and dignity</a>. It enables security, health and well-being. Joblessness hurts the individual, families and the wider community. If fewer people have work, and more people get paid less, the federal government will have to contend with falling income-tax revenue and rising welfare spending.
With intensifying global competition and rapid technological change, all governments need to be strategic. They need long-term policies to help business and workers gain the knowledge, skills and abilities needed to seize the opportunities and mitigate the threats.
There are three key questions for policy makers:
<ul>
<li>
To what extent will AI-driven automation increase unemployment and underemployment?
</li>
<li>
How can governments and employers take advantage of AI and create the jobs of the future?
</li>
<li>
How can government, employers and educators equip employees and graduates with the skills to have jobs alongside robots, instead of competing with them?
</li>
</ul>
The growth in AI and machine learning need not pose a threat to jobs and our standard of living, but without a strategic and shared effort, we will repeat the mistakes of previous technological revolutions, which imposed a terrible price on some in the name of progress.
<hr>
The authors of this article are working towards a book, The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Implications for Managers in the Asia Pacific, due to be published in September. It will include chapters from colleagues in Taiwan, China, India, Mauritius, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. For the Australian chapter we need more information from leaders and managers in industry about the impact of AI and the preparation and planning that is, or is not, occurring. We invite you to complete a short survey as part of this study. You can do so confidentially <a href="https://rmit.au1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_2ab546uXrDaSARf" target="_blank">here</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103764/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Alan Montague, Senior Lecturer/Program Director, masters program in human resources management, RMIT University
Alan Nankervis, Adjunct Professor of Management, RMIT University
John Burgess, Professor of Human Resource Management, RMIT University
Nuttawuth Muenjohn, Senior Lecturer, Business, RMIT University
Ros Cameron, Head of Discipline, Human Resources Management, Australian Institute of Business
Timothy Bartram, Professor, Management, RMIT University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-may-take-your-job-so-political-leaders-need-to-start-doing-theirs-103764">original article</a>.
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Artificial intelligence may take your job, so political leaders need to start doing theirs

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Not a week goes by without a news story (or a few) about people losing their jobs to robots, or the potential effects of a rapidly changing labour market. We are told repeatedly about how many jobs are going to be lost. Both unskilled and skilled jobs are predicted to disappear.
These risks are no doubt real, if uncertain in their magnitude. But these prognoses are largely the work of academics and economic forecasters. How do Australians feel about their job prospects in an age of automation? Rather than robots, the 25th ANUPoll finds our greatest concerns are the risks posed by poor management and jobs going overseas.
The ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods with the Social Research Centre recently asked a representative sample of more than 2,500 Australians about their anxieties related to the future of work. The ANUPoll finds that Australians are reasonably sanguine about their current jobs. However, we are concerned about finding employment in the future if we lose our job.
Pointedly, Australians are more concerned about the threats posed by poor business management and international workers willing to work for lower wages than about the prospect of our jobs disappearing through automation. To put this another way, we are more worried about the globalisation of employment and trade than about competition from robots.
What did we ask and what did we find?
A core question in this ANUpoll is: “Thinking about the next 12 months, how likely do you think it is that you will lose your job or be laid off/have to lay off employees or close the business?”
The overwhelming majority surveyed believe it is “not at all likely” (44.9%) or “not too likely” (42.8%).
Australian workers are quite comfortable with their current job security. But the level of comfort varies by sector of employment.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229681/original/file-20180728-106524-57rt3d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Workers in the arts and recreation sector feel the most secure: 62.5% believe it’s “not at all likely” they will be laid off or need to lay off employees. At the other end of the spectrum, only 25.8% of workers in the electricity, gas, water and waste industries think it’s not at all likely.
We also asked workers: “If you were laid off how easy would it be for you to find a job with another employer with approximately the same income you now have?”
More than half – 54.6% – say finding an equivalent new job would be “not easy at all”. Only 10% believe it would be “very easy”.
Responses to this ANUPoll suggest Australian workers feel largely comfortable about their current employment but are less optimistic about their prospects should they become unemployed.
Sources of job insecurity
Workers may feel insecure about their employment for many reasons. We asked Australian workers about their level of concern about six different potential threats to their job.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229682/original/file-20180728-106524-16s9nxv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The most common concern is that poor management of the company that employs them will lead to losing their job, with 14.7% “very concerned” by this threat and 27.6% “somewhat concerned”. This is followed by: their overall industry is shrinking; their employer might find someone else in Australia who is willing to do the job for less money; and their employer might finding someone overseas who is willing to do their job for less money.
People are least concerned that employers may use machines or computers to replace human workers. Only 8% are “very concerned” and 9.8% “somewhat concerned”.
This is followed by an inability to keep up with the technical skills needed to do their job, with 6% “very concerned” and 15.2% “somewhat concerned” about this.
Why should we be concerned about the future of work?
The labour market is no doubt changing. New occupations are being created as others become more precarious.
Occupations that rely on creativity or human-to-human interaction are both being developed and expanding their share of the labour market. Those based on routine tasks, even complicated ones, are set to employ fewer and fewer workers.
Labour markets have always adjusted to new circumstances. However, we can reasonably argue that the current transformation of work will be more comprehensive and more rapid than before. This is at least partially due to a confluence of significant trends: increased computing speed, decreased computing costs, greater network speed and capacity, increased availability of data, the lessening of some barriers to international trade, and political and economic change in countries with large skilled and semi-skilled workforces.
These changes are having political ramifications. Voters’ anxiety about the labour market and their job prospects was significant in the election of Donald Trump in the US, Brexit in the UK and the increased success of populist parties and platforms in many countries.
What to do about job security
Attention is increasingly shifting from merely describing trends in job security and the future of work to understanding the attitudes and anxieties of the current and future workforce. These attitudes will help determine the effect of labour market change (perceived and actual) on the subjective well-being of the population. Attitudes to job security and the future of work also may affect people’s receptiveness to related policy proposals.
How to respond to the public’s views on job security depends on how accurate you think those perceptions are. There are many suggested policy responses. Examples include a universal basic income and re-regulation of the labour market.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100728/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">If you think the perceptions identified in the recent ANUPoll are a reasonable assessment of the risks to people’s jobs, then the focus should be at least as much on outsourcing and management practices as on skills mismatch and automation. If you think the public is underestimating these latter potential threats and under-investing in the retraining and skills development that would reduce their negative consequences, then greater public attention might be justified.
Nicholas Biddle, Associate Professor, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University
Jill Sheppard, Lecturer, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University
Matthew Gray, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. 
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