Investment Yields

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">Low and falling investment yields from most major asset classes point to a constrained medium term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.9 percent on our projections.</div>
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<br>For investors the key is to: have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns aren’t down as much; focus on asset allocation; and focus on assets with decent &amp; sustainable income.</div>
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<div class="column">Introduction</div>
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<div class="column">While the high inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s was bad for investment returns at the time, it left a legacy of very high investment yields which helped set the scene for high investment returns through the 1980s and 1990s. Back in the early 1980s the RBA's "cash rate" was averaging around 14%, 3 year bank term deposit rates were around 12%, 10 year bond yields were around 13.5%, commercial and residential property yields were running around 8-9% and dividend yields on shares were around 6.5% in Australia and 5% globally. Such yields meant investments were already providing very high cash income. So for assets like property or shares only modest capital growth was necessary to give good returns. As a result, back then the medium term (5-10 year) return potential from investing was solid. In fact most assets had spectacular returns in the 1980s and 1990s. Australian superannuation funds saw returns average 14.1% pa in nominal terms and 9.4% pa in real terms between 1982 and 1999 (after taxes and fees). </div>
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<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-17%20at%208.14.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<p>But since the early 1980s the starting point in terms of investment yields has been moving progressively lower, resulting in slowing 10 year average nominal and real returns for superannuation funds as seen the chart above. Today the RBA cash rate is just 1.5 percent, 3 year bank term deposit rates are just 2.6-3 percent, 10 year bond yields are just 1.9 percent, gross residential property yields are around 3 percent and while dividend yields are still around 6 percent for Australian shares (with franking credits) they are around 2.5 percent for global shares. This note looks at the medium term return potential from major assets and the implications for investors. </p>
<p>Potential return drivers</p>
<p>In getting a handle on potential medium term returns from an asset class the key is its starting point valuation. For example, if current yields – say bond yields and dividend yields – are lower than “normal” then this will likely constrain returns relative to the past. Investment returns have two components; capital growth, and yield (or income). The yield is the most secure component and generally speaking, when you start your investment the higher it is the better. So our approach to assessing medium term return potential is to start with current yields for each asset class and apply simple and consistent assumptions regarding capital growth. We prefer to avoid a reliance on forecasting and to keep the analysis as simple as possible. Complicated adjustments just lead to compounding forecasting errors. </p>
<p>For equities, a simple model of current dividend yields plus trend nominal GDP growth (as a proxy for earnings and capital growth) does a good job of predicting medium term returns. This approach allows for current valuations (via the yield) but avoids getting too complicated.1 The next chart shows this approach applied to US equities, where it can be seen to broadly track big secular swings in returns. </p>
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<p> <a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-17%20at%208.17.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>For property, we use current rental yields and likely trend inflation as a proxy for rental and capital growth.</p>
<p>For unlisted infrastructure, we use current average yields and capital growth just ahead of inflation. </p>
<p>For bonds, the best predictor of future medium term returns is the current bond yield. If a 10 year bond is held to maturity its initial yield will be its return over 10 years. The close relationship between 10 year bond yields and subsequent returns from bonds is clear in the next chart. </p>
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<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-17%20at%208.19.43%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p>Projections for medium term returns</p>
<p>Return projections using this approach are shown in the next table. The second column shows each asset’s current income yield, the third shows their 5-10 year growth potential, and the final column their total return potential. Note that:</p>
<p>We assume central banks average around or just below their inflation targets, e.g. 2.5 percent in Australia &amp; 2 percent in the US.</p>
<p>For Australia we have adopted a relatively conservative growth assumption below nominal GDP growth potential reflecting the headwind from weak commodity prices &amp; the impact of this on resource sector profits &amp; sales growth.</p>
<p>We allow for forward points in the return projections for global assets based around current market pricing – which adds 1.8 percent to the return from world equities.</p>
<p>The Australian cash rate is assumed to average 2.75 percent over the medium term. Cash is one asset where the current yield is of no value in assessing the asset’s medium term return potential because the maturity is so short. So we assume a medium term average. Normally for cash this would be around a country’s potential nominal growth rate, but we have adjusted for higher than normal bank lending rates relative to the cash rate and higher household debt to income ratios which have pulled down the neutral cash rate.</p>
<p>Combining the return projections for each asset indicates that the implied return for a diversified growth mix of assets has now fallen to 6.9 percent pa and is shown in the final row. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-17%20at%208.21.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>Megatrends influencing the growth outlook</p>
<p>Several themes are allowed for in our projections: slower growth in household debt; the backlash against economic rationalist policies of globalisation, deregulation and small government; rising geopolitical tensions; aging and slowing populations; low commodity prices; technological innovation &amp; automation; the Asian ascendancy &amp; China’s growing middle class; rising environmental awareness; &amp; the energy revolution. Most of these are constraining nominal growth and hence investor returns. However, technological innovation is positive for profits and some of these point to inflation bottoming. (See “Megatrends ”, Oliver’s Insights, July 2016. </p>
<p>Key things to note </p>
<p>Several things are worth noting from these projections. </p>
<p>The medium term return potential using this approach continues to soften largely reflecting the rally in most assets of the last few years which has pushed investment yields lower. Projected returns using this approach for a diversified growth mix of assets has fallen from 10.3% pa at the low point of the GFC in March 2009 to 6.9% now. </p>
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<p><a href="/images/2016/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-17%20at%208.25.44%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>The starting point for returns today is far less favourable than when the last secular bull market in shares and bonds started in 1982, due to much lower yields.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Government bonds offer low return potential thanks to ultra low bond yields.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continue to come out well, reflecting their relatively high yields.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Australian shares stack up well on the basis of yield, but it’s still hard to beat Asian shares for growth potential.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>The downside risks to our medium term return projections are referred to endlessly by financial commentators: namely that the world is plunged into another recession or that investment yields are pushed up to more normal levels causing large capital losses. The upside risks are (always) less obvious but could occur if global growth improves but inflation remains low which could see a continuing search for yield further pushing up capital values.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Implications for investors</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>There are several implications for investors:</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>First, have reasonable return expectations. The combinatinofof low investment yields &amp; constrained GDP growth indicate it’s not reasonable to expect sustained double digit returns. In fact, the decline in the rolling 10 year moving average of superannuation fund returns (first chart) indicates we have been in a lower return world for many years.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Second, allow that this partly reflects very low inflation. Real returns haven’t fallen as much and are still reasonable. </p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Third, using a dynamic approach to asset allocation makes sense as a way to enhance returns when the return potential from investment markets is constrained. This is likely to be enhanced by continued bouts of volatility.</p>
<em><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"></a></em></em>
<p>Finally, focus on assets providing decent sustainable income as they provide confidence regarding future returns, eg; commercial property and infrastructure. </p>
<em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank"><br>SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</em>
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The constrained medium term investment return outlook: AMP's Shane Oliver

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<p>The sustained low interest rate environment in Australia continues to drive yield compression in investment property with sales pushing well below 5% and in some cases 4%. </p>
<p>While this is frustrating for local buyers looking for safe investment opportunities and great for sellers, the question is where is it all going?</p>
<p>Holden Capital’s Construction Finance Market Update for Spring/Summer 2017 tried to figure that out.</p>
<p>The consensus of opinion amongst most economic observers seems to be that for as long as Australia continues to be identified as a safe and stable economy, quality property assets will continue to attract foreign investment. Compared to other competing stable economies, our property sector provides solid returns for investors chasing reliable income with strong WALE’s. </p>
<p>As a consequence the short to medium term outlook appears to be more of the same with local investors forced to look for bargains amongst lesser investment grade stock and yields could potentially tighten further.</p>
<p>With strong competition for quality tenants driving yield compression in large format retail centres, regionals and the key commercial sectors, the prospects for investment outside of these prime assets is likely to be characterised by local investors targeting more affordable investments and the refurbishment/ gentrification of areas previously passed over in order to reduce capital costs. Volatile stock markets, low interest rates and continuing foreign investment will also continue to drive yield compression so the question is, is there a change on the horizon?</p>
<p>Recent press has seen some commentators forecast the potential for interest rate rises in 2018 on the back of easing concerns around the strength of the underlying economy.</p>
<p>"We take the view that while there continues to be pressures on SME profits, household income growth remains weak and general consumer confidence poor, interest rates are unlikely to show signs of increasing for some time to come," says the market update.</p>
<p>As the squeeze on development funding due to APRA's restrictions began to bite, banks turned their attention to what they could continue to lend against and that was property assets which are income producing.</p>
<p>Investment lending against offices, retail, industrial sectors, hotels, etc forms part of the “Commercial” loan portfolio of a bank and while the regulator would like to see overall exposures kept below 10% of their balance sheets, there was scope for them to in some cases actually grow their exposure and then maintain it in line with their balance sheet growth.</p>
<p>“The emerging challenge for them however, has been that many overseas investors who are acquiring property are chasing a positive yield differential as they view the returns more like annuities so their intention is to hold long term, while in some cities a number of commercial buildings are being converted into residential projects,” says the update.</p>
<p>The weight of this additional capital inflow and demand from these overseas property investors (pension funds, investors and sovereign funds to name a few) aided by local demand has been a key driver of strong commercial property sales in an already low yield investment environment and, has led to a dramatic level of yield compression across these investment sectors.” </p>
<p>This in turn has raised concerns about overvalued property prices relative to historical benchmarks leading to suggestions of value bubbles and the future sustainability of the values and as a consequence, the banks debt ratios. As to how this will resolve itself is difficult to predict with the extreme being a significant reduction in values at a future date but the more likely outcome is a smaller realignment combined with a significant period of stagnation in values. </p>
<p>Either way, the banks are playing close attention to these issues and will be looking to avoid a situation where a major realignment would adversely affect their clients but more particularly their ability to remain compliant with APRA’s lending guidelines. All of which serves to demonstrate how the combination of regulatory constraints and concerns around rapidly appreciating values has resulted in a slowdown in investment lending by the major banks. </p>
<h3>Guide to Commercial Investment Loans</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/03/HoldenGraph.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/03/HoldenGraph.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Funding options outside of that sector are somewhat limited. In the recent past, Mortgage Funds provided the bulk of non-bank investment loans however the GFC saw a large number of these players exit the market and the remaining funds have limited capacity and or appetite. Unlike the development finance space where many small private funds have emerged to take advantage of the increased returns (and risk) on offer, there have been few new significant funding sources emerge to fill this void.</p>
<p>As always, there has also been a flight to quality by banks and other lenders seeking to improve the risk profile of their loan portfolios, so while the strong sponsors are being serviced, the gap is widening between them and the rest of the market. </p>
<p>Investment banks, hedge funds and opportunistic funds have increased their presence as funders of development property transactions, however the very nature of their return hurdles means that term debt is not a strongly targeted investment class. There are options out there, however the challenge is to understand who can fund and what the terms are (pricing, tenure, etc) as the market evolves. </p>
<p>“So to sum up, the investment lending landscape is not dissimilar to the construction finance sector with similar pressures and again, they are pressures that are not going to change overnight so it pays to have the right advice and support when you are thinking of raising debt for a new acquisition or refinancing,” it says.</p>
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