International Students

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<h2 class="legacy">Opinion</h2>

Victorian universities <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/universities-hatch-desperate-plan-to-fly-students-in-quarantine-them-20210406-p57gvo">recently re-proposed</a> a previously conceived plan to get international students back under a similar model used to fly in tennis players for the Australian Open. Under the proposal, universities would help pay for around 1,000 foreign students to be flown into Melbourne every two to three weeks and placed into special lockdown arrangements.

Similar plans to get international students back have been considered in various states since borders closed in March last year – and then quietly shelved. So far, only the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/international-students-arrive-in-australia-coronavirus-nt/12933370">Northern Territory has been able to bring 63 students to Australia</a>.

But 63 students is an almost negligible number compared to how many visa holders are still stranded outside the country — an estimated 30% of 542,106 (or around 160,000) student visa holders were outside Australia as of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-15/international-student-ghost-tower-in-carlton/13058916">January 10 2021</a>.

In February, Phil Honeywood, the CEO of the International Education Association of Australia, expressed uncharacteristic desperation in his monthly email to members. He wrote:

When we directly lobby our federal politicians to promote student return plans, we are told that state/territory governments have full control of quarantine and we have to persuade them first. However, our discussions with state and territory politicians invariably produce the response that because the federal government controls Border Force, the ADF and international airport arrival caps, they are the ones actually in control!

Victorian Acting Premier James Merlino <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/universities-hatch-desperate-plan-to-fly-students-in-quarantine-them-20210406-p57gvo">last week also blamed Canberra for the lack of progress</a> to bring students back:

If you don’t get that from the federal government then it doesn’t matter what other ideas, whether it’s the City of Melbourne, SA, NSW or ourselves, doesn’t matter what idea you have to deliver it, if you can’t get people [students] on the flights, it’s a no-goer.

But Federal Education Minister Alan Tudge is on the other side of the blame game, <a href="https://www.studyinternational.com/news/australian-universities-2022/">saying, at the end of March</a>:

There is still the opportunity to bring students back in small, phased pilots. This could occur if an institution works with the state or territory government and presents a plan to us for quarantining international students […] I have discussed various plans with government and university leaders but to date have not received any concrete proposal.

This is all very confusing for the international education sector, which has come up with a number of concrete plans. Neither level of government seems to be able to either offer a sufficient explanation for why a plan it was considering was abandoned or, when an explanation is offered, when that plan may be resumed.

This creates the perception, among those working in the sector and international students, that no governments care about their fate.

South Australian and ACT plans shelved

The Australian Capital Territory and South Australia were the first jurisdictions to <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/international-students-to-fly-to-canberra-next-month-under-pilot-program-20200617-p553hb">announce plans</a> to bring back international students. In June 2020, they proposed pilots that would bring in 350 and 800 students to Canberra and Adelaide respectively. But both these plans were put on hold after Victoria’s second wave hit at the beginning of July.

The South Australian pilot was <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/international-students-set-to-fly-back-to-south-australia-from-these-nine-countries">resuscitated in November</a> — with preparations reportedly well advanced — before an outbreak later that month sent Adelaide into a snap lockdown and the pilot was again put on ice.

Not to be deterred, ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7051694/barr-wants-international-students-to-return-to-canberra-by-february/">announced in December</a> he had requested Commonwealth approval to bring students back by February this year, but this too was quietly shelved with no explanation given.

Victoria and NSW try and try again

In Victoria universities and student accommodation providers have put a series of proposals to the state government, the first of which were scuppered when Victoria went into extended lockdown from July during the second wave.

In <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/international-students-could-quarantine-in-hubs-from-january-20201210-p56mf7">December the Victorian government was considering</a> a plan to fly in up to 23,000 international students early in 2021, who would serve out their quarantine in student accommodation. By <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/15/victoria-plans-for-international-students-return-with-special-quarantine-housing">January the state government was upbeat</a> saying it was “working closely” with the federal government to finalise the plan.But that all changed in February. In a national cabinet meeting at which an international student return plan was to be agreed, Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.studyinternational.com/news/return-to-australia-2021/">instead said</a>:

Within weeks, a small number of cases of community transmission from a Melbourne quarantine hotel caused a snap lockdown and the cessation of incoming international flights, which only resumed in April.

It was agreed once again that the return of Australian residents is the priority in terms of arrivals to Australia. We must remember that our borders are actually shut. No one can just come to Australia.

Now that the dust appears to have settled once more, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/universities-hatch-desperate-plan-to-fly-students-in-quarantine-them-20210406-p57gvo">Victorian universities are trying again</a>, with a proposal to fly in 1,000 students each fortnight. The state government’s response so far appears lukewarm at best.

New South Wales has also had its share of pilot announcements. A well-developed scheme to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hard-to-see-a-safe-corridor-nsw-shelves-plan-for-return-of-international-students-20210107-p56scz">start returning 1,000 international students</a> to Sydney each week was shelved in January after the outbreaks in the northern beaches and Western Sydney.

The NSW government subsequently tried for <a href="https://www.examiner.com.au/story/7158868/tasmania-refuses-quarantine-request-for-overseas-students-in-nsw/">international NSW university students to quarantine in Tasmania</a> before coming to Sydney. Unsurprisingly the idea was quickly quashed by the Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein.

So, what now?

Only <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/international-students-arrive-in-australia-coronavirus-nt/12933370">63 international students have come to Australia</a> through the Northern Territory in November 2020. They were quarantined in the Howard Springs facility. In March 2021, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-05/howard-springs-covid-quarantine-returned-passengers-expanding/13220188">Scott Morrison announced</a> the Howard Springs facility’s capacity would increase to 2,000 people per fortnight. But there is no suggestion any of those places will be available for international students.

A <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-papers/enhancing-the-design-quality-of-purpose-built-student-accommodation">recent study</a> I was involved in identified nearly 12,000 beds in student accommodation facilities in the City of Sydney and nearly 19,000 in the City of Melbourne. Using some of these properties could <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-unis-can-use-student-housing-to-solve-international-student-quarantine-issues-150180">provide a parallel quarantine pathway</a> for international students – without taking hotel quarantine spaces away from returning Australians.

New South Wales recently launched the <a href="https://www.tenders.nsw.gov.au/?event=public.scheme.showClosed&amp;RFTUUID=3E178749-AECF-E64F-52BC8491F542DAEC">International Student Accommodation Quarantine program</a>. The NSW government has invited student accommodation providers to apply to be assessed for eligibility (based on things like location and building layout) to house international students.

This is promising. We all agree bringing Australians home is a priority. But we have the capacity to bring back both. We know costs will be borne by students and education providers, and students will be subject to the same quarantine requirements and testing regimes already in place for returning Australians.

It’s just not good enough for the education minister to keep parroting the line returning Australians “<a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6238700355001">remain the priority</a>” over international students. If the government refuses to continue plans to bring students back, it must show them respect by providing a clear reason.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158778/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" wu8tx1wxf="">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-ziguras-956941">Christopher Ziguras</a>, Professor of Global Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-keeps-shelving-plans-to-bring-international-students-back-to-australia-it-owes-them-an-explanation-158778">original article</a>.
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So far, only the Northern Territory has been able to bring 63 students to Australia, abysmal

jordan_55689

The government keeps shelving plans to bring international students back to Australia

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EXPERT INSIGHT

International students commonly share bedrooms so they can afford the rent. What is perhaps much more surprising is that our research suggests thousands are “<a href="https://www.apia.org.nz/apia-blog/hot-bedding-what-landlords-need-to-know">hot-bedding</a>” – their beds are available to them for only some hours of the day or night so others can use them the rest of the time. If <a href="https://internationalstudentsandhousing.files.wordpress.com/2020/09/international-students-and-housing-survey-report-final-report.pdf">our survey</a> of more than 7,000 international students renting privately in Sydney and Melbourne is representative of the <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/international-student-data/Documents/MONTHLY%20SUMMARIES/2019/Dec%202019%20MonthlyInfographic.pdf">758,154 international students</a> in Australia in December 2019, this equates to about 22,750 students hot-bedding.

In our survey, 3% of all students answered yes to the question, “Do you have to hotbed (i.e. our bed is only available for a few hours of the day/night)?”. The survey also found about four in ten of these hot-bedding students were going without meals. And this was before <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-one-would-even-know-if-i-had-died-in-my-room-coronavirus-leaves-international-students-in-dire-straits-144128">nearly two-thirds of international students</a> lost their jobs in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Another extraordinary finding is that 14% of hot-bedders said their employer had threatened them with visa cancellation (compared to 2% of non-hot-bedders). One in five (20%, compared to 5% of non-hot-bedders) answered yes when asked: “Has the landlord/real estate agent/property manager ever taken away your passport?”

These findings suggest a sizeable proportion of hot-bedders are struggling financially and in a vulnerable situation. Many said their circumstances were having a negative impact on their studies.

Despite this, almost eight in ten agreed or strongly agreed that they “enjoy living and studying in Australia”.

Who are the hot-bedders?

In our survey, 45% of hot-bedders were female. Just under two-thirds (65%) were university students, rather than studying at vocational or English language colleges.

Hot-bedding was spread across all age groups and countries of origin. Thus 4% were aged 18, a quarter were 19 to 21, 42% were 22 to 25, 18% were 26 to 30 and 11% were over 30.

Just under a third came from low-income countries, half came from middle-income countries and 15% from high-income countries.

How do they feel about rent costs?

Hot-bedders were generally satisfied with their rent – 23% disagreed with the statement, “I think the rent I pay is fair.”

However, one in two (51%) strongly agreed or agreed they worried about paying rent each week (compared to 35% for non-hot-bedders) and only 21% (36% non-hot-bedders) disagreed.

Most students (58%) living less than 40 minutes away from their education provider paid more than $250 a week in rent.

About four in ten hot-bedders agreed they “go without necessities like food so I can pay for my accommodation” and had failed to make a rent payment because of a lack of funds. The rates for students who didn’t hot-bed were two in ten.

Almost half (48%) of hot-bedders agreed concern about paying the rent was having a negative impact on their studies.

How do they view their accommodation?

Despite having to hot-bed, just under eight in ten (78%) of these students said they were satisfied or very satisfied with the home they are renting.

Just over seven in ten (72%) agreed with the statement, “The home I rent is suitable for my needs.” Only 7% disagreed.

Only one in ten hot-bedders agreed the person they rent from did not keep the property well-maintained.

Just over one in four (27%) hot-bedders felt their home was overcrowded compared to 12% of non-hot-bedders.

The cramped situation appeared to have a negative impact on their academic work. About one in three (35%) agreed or strongly agreed that “the condition of my accommodation has a negative impact on my studies”, compared to 13% of those who didn’t hot-bed.

Remarkably, just under one in four (23%) hot-bedding students answered “yes” when asked if the “balcony of the property is used as a bedroom”, compared to 5% of students who did not hot-bed. A similar percentage of hot-bedders (and 4% of non-hot-bedders) said the garage is used as a bedroom.

How secure do they feel?

Most hot-bedders reported they had a good relationship with their landlord or real estate agent. Only 6% said it was “bad” or “not very good”.

Close to half (45%) of hot-bedders said the person they pay rent to lives in the same accommodation. It’s unclear whether this is the actual landlord, or a person who sub-lets the property.

Two in three hot-bedders sensed they “could stay in this rental property as long as they want to”. Despite the seemingly good relationship of most hot-bedders with their landlord, just under one in three agreed that if they “complain about the standards of the property and maintenance problems [they] might be asked to leave”.

Although maintenance did not seem to be a major issue, just under four in ten hot-bedders agreed they were concerned the rent might be increased if they did ask for repairs. And 38% were anxious they “might be told to leave [their] property and be given a short time to leave”.

When asked, “In the last year, have you ever felt that you could become homeless?”, 37% answered yes. This compares to 17% of non-hot-bedders.

Just under four in ten hot-bedders agreed or strongly agreed that “stress around the possibility of losing my accommodation is affecting my academic studies”.

What is their employment status?

Half of the students who hot-bed had paid work at the time of the survey and of those employed 48% reported that their landlord employed them, compared to 17% of the other students in paid work.

A large proportion felt they were poorly paid and their job was insecure. Less than half of the hot-bedders felt they were well-paid. Only one in four disagreed with the statement, “My current job is insecure.”

Just over eight in ten said losing their job would cause them financial difficulties.

Financial stress is widespread

The chart below shows eight measures of financial stress adapted from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. We added an item on affordability of textbooks.

On every measure students who hot-bed were two to three times more likely to have answered yes to the question, indicating financial stress. Perhaps the most alarming statistic is that 39% of hot-bedders went without meals. So did 20% of non-hot-bedders.

One in ten hot-bedders suffered from all eight indicators of financial stress. A worrying 34% of hot-bedders reported five or more indicators of financial stress. Only 9% of non-hot-bedders reported five stress indicators. Less than one in 100 endured all eight.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alan-morris-13337">Alan Morris</a>, Professor, Institute of Public Policy and Governance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/catherine-hastings-1144685">Catherine Hastings</a>, Assistant Researcher, Institute for Public Policy and Governance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gaby-ramia-796813">Gaby Ramia</a>, Associate Professor in Public Policy, Department of Government and International Relations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-one-student-gets-out-of-bed-another-gets-in-thousands-are-hot-bedding-in-australia-156589">original article</a>.

<h2>Here are some listings you may like:</h2>

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In a survey, 3% of all students answered yes to the question, “Do you have to hotbed (i.e. our bed is only available for a few hours of the day/night)?”

As one student gets out of bed, another gets in: thousands are 'hot-bedding' in Australia

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2021 is shaping up as very difficult for universities, as well as the <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-papers/Documents/ValueInternationalEd.pdf">more than 130,000 people</a> whose jobs rely on the international education sector.

In October 2019 almost <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-arrivals-and-departures-australia/latest-release#arrivals-international-students">51,000 new and returning international students</a> arrived in Australia. In October 2020, this figure had fallen by 99.7% — to just 130.

The Mitchell Institute <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/issues-brief-international-students-covid.pdf">has previously estimated</a> about 36% of annual international student spending is on property and another 36% is on hospitality and retail. The large drop in international students inside Australia means the many businesses and property owners that rely on international students will continue to suffer.

Australian states had plans to trial the return of some students with quarantine arrangements in place. These <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">included returning</a> 300 international students to South Australia, 350 to the ACT, and setting aside up to 1,000 quarantine places per week in NSW for international students and temporary migrants. Other states hadn’t specified their plans.

But the NSW effort to bring back international students <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hard-to-see-a-safe-corridor-nsw-shelves-plan-for-return-of-international-students-20210107-p56scz">has stalled</a>, while the ACT is still waiting for approval from the Commonwealth and South Australia’s plan has not been finalised. Only the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">Northern Territory has succeeded</a> in bringing back 63 international students since the borders closed to temporary visa holders in March last year.

But even if all the states had progressed with their plans, there would be nowhere near the amount of international students needed to stem the economic shortfall.

<h2>Fewer students coming in than going out</h2>

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the international education sector differs to other parts of our economy. Employment in industries such as retail and hospitality <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">have recovered slightly</a> from the initial COVID-19 shock.

But the international education sector continues to decline and is yet to reach its lowest point.

While the situation is bleak, there are encouraging signs for renewal.

The concepts of stock (the number of current students) and flow (the number of new students) help understand the nature of the problems facing the international education sector.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the stock of enrolled international students has become smaller as they finish their courses.

In October 2019, <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">580,202 international students</a> were enrolled in Australian courses. By October 2020, this had reduced by 13% to 502,206.

The stock has shrunk because the pandemic has interrupted the flow of new international students. This means there are fewer new students replacing those finishing their courses.

There is still some flow of new students into courses. For instance, between July and October 2020 <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_CommencementsOctober2020.pdf">about 25,000 new international students started a course</a> in Australia. But this is much lower than the 100,000 during the same period in 2019.

And from now on, the stock of enrolled international students is likely to continue to fall much more quickly than the flow of new students.

According to <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">Australian government data</a>, about 120,000 international students, or 24% of the enrolled cohort, were due to finish their course between October 2020 and January 2021. With borders remaining closed there is unlikely to be enough students to replace them.

<h2>Students outside Australia aren’t spending in the economy</h2>

Compounding the problem is that many international student visa holders are outside Australia. In the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">2019 calendar year</a>, international education contributed more than $40 billion to the Australian economy. At the end of December 2020, 158,014 out of 543,522 visa holders were not in the country. This means they will not be spending in the wider Australian economy.

The graph below uses Australian government data to show the location of international student visa holders inside and outside Australia since the start of the pandemic. The number of international student visa holders inside Australia has steadily declined.

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<iframe class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" frameborder="0" height="400px" id="SrYXY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SrYXY/3/" style="border: none" width="100%"></iframe>

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The number of international student visa holders inside Australia at the end of 2020 (around 385,000) had dropped by almost 195,000 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/student-temporary-grad-program-report-june-2020.pdf">compared to October 2019</a>.

The trials to bring back international students were mostly addressing the issue of existing students (the stock) stranded overseas. Even if they were successful, they would not have had a substantial impact on restarting the flow of new international students into Australia.

<h2>What’s the economic impact?</h2>

Universities have been affected greatly by the crisis. In 2019, universities <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-publications/resources/2019-higher-education-providers-finance-tables">reported A$9.8 billion in revenue</a> from international students. Throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/melbourne-losses-not-bad-predicted">losses may have been somewhat contained</a> as international students were still finishing their courses.

However, the continued reduction in the stock of international students means 2021 should be the year the financial impact of the crisis will bite.

More than 40% of the sector’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">annual student revenue</a> now comes from international students.

Based on a reduction of 30% in higher education international students who have either <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">finished or scheduled to finish</a> their courses before 2021, the university sector can expect at least a A$3 billion reduction in international student revenue this year compared to 2019.

Modelling by Universities Australia shows by 2023, <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-what-australian-universities-can-do-to-recover-from-the-loss-of-international-student-fees-139759">universities stand to lose A$16 billion</a> due to the loss of international students. Previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">modelling by the Mitchell Institute</a> shows universities stand to lose up to A$19 billion by 2023.

It is not just a university problem. The graph below shows the enormous growth in the international education sector. It uses data from the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS) and breaks down the economic contribution into two groups, tuition fees, and goods and services.

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In 2019, the ABS estimates 57% of the A$40 billion that international education contributed to the Australian economy, or A$22.8 billion, came in the form of goods and services spent in the wider economy.

<a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/tertiary-education/australia-to-lose-half-its-international-students-by-mid-2021">Research from the Mitchell Institute</a> has previously estimated if borders remained closed by mid-2021 there would be a 50% reduction in the number of international student visa holders inside Australia. This would roughly equate to an annual reduction of about A$11.4 billion in spending in the broader economy.

<h2>Green shoots of renewal</h2>

Despite the extraordinary challenges, there are positive signs. Visa application data shows people are still applying for international student visas.

The graph below compares monthly student visa approvals between January 2018 and November 2020. It excludes those whose last visa was a student visa, to better capture new applicants instead of current students extending or changing their visa.

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<iframe class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" frameborder="0" height="400px" id="Vs9nA" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vs9nA/1/" style="border: none" width="100%"></iframe>

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This graph shows there has been a sharp drop in approvals since April 2020. In April, there was a 78% drop from the number of approvals the year before and an 83% drop in May. However, there has been some stabilisation. In November 2020, visa approvals were around 38% what they were the year before — a drop of 62%.

The fact there are still a significant number of applications and approvals in the current environment is a testament to how Australia remains an attractive prospect for many international students.

It suggests that if the international education sector can weather the storm of 2021, better times await in 2022 and beyond.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153180/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">original article</a>.
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max.kwok_55688

2021 is the year Australia's international student crisis really bites

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>Net permanent and long-term arrivals sat at +299,670 over the year to October 2019, pointing towards strong ongoing population growth. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EoVcdJyQ2XA/XfHkL_dhFYI/AAAAAAAAzVo/9GUyowwMG4A1DQCcZWrdwf39145Je7XWQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1408">
Short-term visitors
Short-term visitors from China and India have resumed their upwards trend.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S7qFu0ddQ2o/XfHkL86i2nI/AAAAAAAAzVs/Cd8rwjftgcwYecBVKAWoeGc8RvnFiPRSwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1450"></div>
And, as previously noted here, study is a big drawcard, with a record number of temporary visas on issue for international students. 
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I've been watching with interest to see whether there's been more action from Hong Kong, but if there is it's not evident in short-term visitor figures. 
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The main beneficiary of the student trend looks likely to be Victoria.
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Not much new here, except confirmation that more student visitors from Asia continue to come in record numbers, and that population growth looks likely to remain at around +1.6 per cent or thereabouts.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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International student surge ramps up: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Foreign students unable to get into Australia is a blow to Australia’s education sector with Universities Australia estimating that over the next three years, universities will lose over $16 billion due to COVID-19. With 25% of all tertiary students from overseas, this has flow on not only to university coffers but to the wider economy.
For property, the rental market was hit immediately as a result of COVID-19. The number of available rental properties jumped as students didn’t return to campus and short-stay listings were instead leased on the long-term market. Airbnb is slowly getting back to business with domestic tourism starting again but there are problems arising for investors. Particularly, in areas that already had weak rental demand (primarily apartments in western and south-western Sydney), as well as areas with high proportions of rental housing aimed at students.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/5/REA%20vacancy.JPG" alt="">
Not surprisingly, the areas that are most at risk are those that are close to large universities. Melbourne CBD, Clayton and Carlton have seen big increases in properties listed for rent on realestate.com.au, of which a number are aimed at students. In many of these locations we are starting to see a steady rise in properties for sale. Property owners may not yet be in distress but no doubt many are worried about the possibility of a continued deterioration of these rental markets. The potential for mortgage repayment relief stopping in September is problematic, particularly as it’s unlikely foreign students will be back before then.
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at the REA
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University suburbs’ are suffering from COVID-19: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
International students made up more than 30 per cent of the population in some Australian suburbs before borders closed to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
The Mitchell Institute mapped where international students lived using data from the ABS census and Department of Home Affairs.
The results show striking growth in capital cities, and in some regional areas.
The mapping highlights how international students have become intertwined in Australia’s social fabric. Not only do they contribute A$38 billion to the economy annually and support 130,000 jobs (at any one time), they are also important members of local communities.
The Mitchell Institute research helps illustrate how, beyond universities’ suffering at the loss of international students, local businesses and communities are also being negatively affected.
City areas and suburbs close to university campuses have the most international students.
The centre of Melbourne had the largest number of international students in the country – at almost 20,000, or 38 per cent of the resident population. The neighbouring suburb of Carlton has the next largest with 9,600 or 39 per cent of the population.
The Canberra suburb of Acton, where ANU is located, had one of the highest proportions of international students in the country – at about 44 per cent.
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1075/Canberra.gif?1592181779" width="100%">International students in Canberra.
Many international students have chosen to live in suburbs further away from university campuses, too.
We estimate more than 10 per cent of the population in the Sydney suburbs of Hurstville and Strathfield were international students.
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1074/Sydney.gif?1592181643" width="100%">International students in Sydney.
International students made up more than 5 per cent of the population in areas such as Dandenong and Laverton in Melbourne, Joondalup in Perth, and Regency Park in Adelaide.
Affordable property and good transport links may make these suburbs attractive options.
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1073/Adelaide.gif?1592181536" width="100%">International students in Adelaide.
Regional areas have also benefited from international students, especially those with university campuses. For instance, in Darling Heights and Gatton in regional Queensland, more than 5 per cent of the population were international students.
<h2>Wherever international students live they will be important parts of communities and economies.</h2>
We also examined Universities Australia’s student finance data to identify the type of businesses that benefit most from international education.
We found over 36 per cent of international student spending goes towards retail and entertainment. This is money that will be spent in Australian cafes, markets and other venues.
Another 36 per cent of spending went to property. As 65 per cent of international students rent, much of this income will support Australian property investors.
The benefits international students bring extend beyond the economy. They also volunteer, contribute to Australia’s cultural diversity and enhance our international standing.
This research helps illustrate the many different roles of international students. They are colleagues, friends, neighbours, tenants, customers, classmates and future world-leaders.
Many will also become future Australian citizens. Of 1.6 million international students who started their course between 2001 and 2014, 16 per cent were granted permanent residency and a pathway to citizenship.
<h2>Department of Home Affairs figures show over 120,000 current student visa holders are outside Australia.</h2>
We estimate this translates into about 13,000 fewer people living in inner Melbourne due to travel restrictions. In places like Sydney’s city and inner south, this translates into 7,000 fewer people. In Adelaide’s Central and Hills region we estimate this means 5,000 fewer people.
These losses will grow as travels bans stop new international students replacing those who have finished their studies.
Every six months international students cannot enrol due to travel bans, between 110,000 to 140,000 won’t start their courses.
Problems with the international education sector will also affect Australian students. Domestic students share in the perspectives students from around the world bring into classrooms and the extra resources education institutions can afford because of them.
Early reports suggest more school leavers will choose to study at university because of an impending recession.
But while universities have capacity, there are currently funding caps which effectively limit the number of domestic students who can enrol.
Uncapping domestic university places will help ensure our universities can properly meet the needs of school leavers.
Continuing to support international students will also be vital. International students are particularly vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic. As non-citizens they are ineligible to access Australian government supports such as JobKeeper.
Many have had to rely on support packages offered by universities and state governments.
It is important that Australia continues to support international students who are struggling. This will signal to current and future international students that Australia values them and the enormous contribution they make to our country.
Peter Hurley is a Policy Fellow at the Mitchell Institute Victoria University
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International students were over 30% of some suburbs population pre-Covid: Peter Hurley 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The university sector faces cumulative losses of up to A$19 billion over the next three years due to lost international student revenue.
Modelling from the <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">Mitchell Institute</a> shows the next big hit will come mid-year when $2 billion in annual tuition fees is wiped from the sector as international students are unable to travel to Australia to start their courses for second semester.
Such losses are not just a university problem. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5368.0.55.0032017-18?OpenDocument">ABS data show</a> for every $1 lost in university tuition fees, there is another $1.15 lost in the broader economy due to international student spending.
This means the Australian economy could lose more than $40 billion by 2023 because of reduced numbers of higher education international students.
We estimate each six-monthly intake missed due to closed borders will deliver an annual economic blow comparable to when Australia’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/automotive/report">auto manufacturing industry shut down</a> (worth around $5 billion), or the loss of Australia’s $4.1 billion <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/7503.0">annual vegetable crop</a>.
Our modelling shows there will be no quick return to pre-coronavirus normality either, or “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-morrison-dropped-the-snap-back-strategy-20200408-p54i3t">snapback</a>” as Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it.
Missed intakes disrupt the pipeline of international students – who usually study for two to three years – so lost revenue continues to impact budgets for several years.
Forecasts tell a disturbing story
We looked at <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/finance-publication">university finance data</a> and <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default_annual.aspx">enrolment trends</a>. We modelled two scenarios: one with a relatively quick recovery of international student enrolments beginning in 2021, and the other with an extended travel ban that meant no new international students until 2022.
Both scenarios were disastrous for the higher education sector.
The first showed the university sector losing about $10 billion, though international student revenue would largely return to normal by 2023.
But the second scenario, incorporating extended travel bans, had a longer-lasting effect. With the government announcing the borders are likely to remain closed for “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australians-may-not-be-able-to-travel-overseas-until-2021-due-to-coronavirus/news-story/5b29c380cef922d256fec79b85b261ab">quite some time to come</a>” the worst-case scenario seems more likely.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
<hr>
Over the Easter weekend, the government <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/covid-19/higher-education/higher-education-faq">announced a package</a> that guarantees funding for the estimated enrolments of domestic students in 2020, despite whether the actual enrolments are fewer than estimated. The package includes about <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/government-announces-coronavirus-higher-education-relief-package/12142752">$100 million</a> in waived regulatory fees and funding for an additional 20,000 short online courses in national priority areas such as nursing and IT.
This will fall well short of plugging the gap international students will leave behind.
Based on historical funding rates per student, the government would need to fund another 1.9 million short courses, and universities find the same number of students to enrol, to make up for the projected losses in international student revenue.
Financial position of universities
This modelling was part of the Mitchell Institute’s more in-depth <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">investigation into higher education funding</a>. Our analysis shows total university revenue from international students grew by 137% over the past decade. More than 40% of the sector’s annual student revenue now comes from international students.
International students delivered almost $9 billion in annual revenue to universities in 2018, accounting for around 58% of student revenue at two of Australia’s most prestigious universities, the University of Melbourne and the University of Sydney.
Despite the revenue windfall, growth has been uneven. Group of Eight universities experienced the biggest growth in international students, tripling their international student revenue over the past decade. For other universities, particularly smaller and regional universities, revenue grew at a much slower rate.
Even though some balance sheets are healthy, there is limited ability to weather a protracted downturn. University surpluses were only A$1.5 billion across the whole sector in 2018. The sudden and steep decline in international student enrolments is a significant economic challenge for universities.
The outlook for universities
Australia’s universities have <a href="https://meanjin.com.au/essays/the-australian-idea-of-a-university">relied on international students</a> as a source of growth for a long time. While the amount the universities receive per domestic student has been virtually flat in real terms over the past decade, fees each international student pays have increased by over 50%.
With this revenue stream suddenly threatened, the education experience of domestic students will suffer. Universities will need to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/12/australian-universities-warn-covid-19-relief-package-not-enough-to-stop-21000-jobs-losses">deep cuts to staff</a> and courses without further assistance.
This will come at a time when Australia will need its higher education sector as part of any COVID-19 recovery. It is likely demand from domestic students for university places will rise because of workers looking to re-skill and up-skill.
University enrolments from domestic students have increased <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/03/25/predicting-student-numbers-during-the-covid-19-recession-2021-could-be-an-unexpected-peak-year/">during previous recessions</a> and the federal education minister has encouraged those who are out of work to undertake study.
Also, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">one quarter of school leavers</a> usually take a gap year to work or travel. With those plans looking unlikely, there may be an increase in school leavers wanting to study.
But despite the extra funding for 20,000 short courses, universities are unable to respond fully to <a href="https://theconversation.com/demand-driven-funding-for-universities-is-frozen-what-does-this-mean-and-should-the-policy-be-restored-116060">any changes in demand</a>. Caps introduced in 2017 still remain that effectively limit the number of places universities can offer.
Increasing capacity in the tertiary sector by removing the caps on university places would assist universities to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
Universities play an important role in our society, and they will bring future revenue into the economy when international student numbers eventually recover. Australia will need to make further decisions about how much we want to support our universities during this crisis.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136251/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">original article</a>.
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Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years.

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s sad times for public universities as they fight for their survival. Most are reeling from a severe financial hit due to the loss of international students.
Universities are <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">estimated to lose</a> around A$3-4.6 billion in revenue from international student fees in 2020 alone, and more in 2021.
The government has locked universities out of JobKeeper – its COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme – despite the fact the sector is <a href="https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/investment-in-university-research-an-investment-in-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">projected to lose around 21,000 jobs</a>, of which 7,000 are estimated to be research-related.
International onshore <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://docs.education.gov.au/node/53363" target="_blank">student revenue</a> was, as a share of all universities’ revenue, 26.2% on average in 2018, just shy of A$9 billion. For some universities, the dependency on international students is even greater, at around 30-40%.
Many in the government criticise universities for relying so heavily on international students for revenue. For instance, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/e82a8a20-f72d-41d5-90fb-806930fffbba/&amp;sid=0178" target="_blank">Senator James Paterson recently</a> told the Senate:
Over the last few decades our universities have bet big on the international-student dollar. Their institutions have boomed from what has been a very lucrative business, but they have become badly overexposed […] Universities argue they have pursued this market by necessity. They argue insufficient government funding pushed them down this path. It’s a convenient story that attempts to absolve universities of responsibility for the decisions they have made, and it is a false one.
But such views are false. And they ignore the history of international students from Asia studying in our universities.
<h2>A history of international education</h2>
In 1923, Sydney University accepted its first Chinese overseas student, N.Y. Shah from Wuhan, who was studying to become a teacher back in China.
From the 1950s, children of Chinese diaspora parents from countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong began to arrive in Australia to study.
This rarely mentioned cohort of private overseas students studied alongside students supported by the well-known Colombo Plan – an intergovernmental effort to strengthen economic and social development of member countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
In fact, so prominent was the Colombo Plan’s efforts in bringing students to study in Australia, it is still incorrectly believed to be the first major source of overseas students.
Historian <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10314610708601233" target="_blank">Lyndon Megarrity estimates</a> the Colombo Plan brought less than one-fifth of overseas students to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s. The vast majority came as private overseas students.
They went to Australian schools, sat for university matriculation and for those who passed, proceeded to university either funded by the generous Commonwealth scholarship scheme or by paying substantially subsidised university fees, just like Australian citizens.
By 1966, archival research shows private overseas students constituted 8.9% of full-time university enrolments and their numbers were growing. Immigration restrictions were also loosened to mean citizenship was available to private overseas students who had lived in Australia for at least five years.
Most met the conditions after attending two years of high school and the three year minimum for a degree.
While some stayed, of those I interviewed for a UNSW survey of overseas students who studied at the university in the 1950s and 1960s, it seems most returned to their home countries where an Australian university degree promised excellent career prospects.
There was obviously something about Australian education and society that appealed to our Asian neighbours, and pulled them to Australia where they lived for five years and more.
<h2>An unofficial government policy</h2>
In 1990 the Australian government introduced full fees for all international students. John Dawkins, the then Minister for Employment, Education and Training, saw an opportunity to establish university education as an export industry.
The year 1990 is significant because the Australian government was in the process of implementing the Dawkins reforms which reorganised the once diversified public higher education sector into a single national system.
The aim of the Dawkins reforms was to encourage more Australian school leavers to attend university and, on graduation, become part of a highly-skilled and educated national workforce.
To help fund this vastly expanded system and rein in costs, the government introduced HECS. Students could postpone subsidised and interest-free fees until their salary reached a certain level when they would repay the loan through the taxation system.
International student fees at this stage were not a significant source of university income. But they became so from the early 2000s after a decade of reduced government funding and a significant expansion of local student numbers.
Since government funding no longer covered the full costs of expensive research or the strong growth in domestic students, universities had to find funds from elsewhere.
It can be said that international student fees have become an unofficial part of the funding policy of consecutive federal governments.
Government actions and inactions that led to such a reliance on international fee income have created a system that challenges a belief many of us hold dear – public universities should be able to draw on public funds for their operations.
Where in 1989 universities derived more than 80% of their operating costs from the public purse, now it is estimated to be less than 40% – a figure well below the OECD average for public investment in tertiary education.
<h2>Where to from here</h2>
Since the 2000s, the shortfall has been largely made up by international student fees which have enabled universities to punch above their weight. On a population parity basis we have <a href="https://www.dreducation.com/top-500-world-class-universities-rankings" target="_blank">more universities </a> in the world’s top 500 (by some metrics) than Canada, the United Kingdom and United States.
And 2018 figures show we have some of the highest participation rates of school leavers in the world, at least 30% higher than is the case in the United Kingdom. 
Our universities also contribute enormously to national research and development – international student fees help sustain this. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8111.0" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> confirmed this week more than half of the A$12 billion universities invest in research each year comes from a pool of funds that relies on international student fees.
International students, however, should not simply be measured by the fees they pay. Evidence shows while here, students contribute to the well-being of Australians by fuelling economic growth and prosperity that provides jobs for Australians.
University doctoral students and postdoctoral fellows are a large component of Australia’s research and development workforce. International students make up <a href="https://www.science.org.au/covid19/research-workforce" target="_blank">37% of this vital group</a>, working on important projects like breeding drought resilient crops, developing cures for diseases like COVID-19, and world-leading efficient solar and plastic recycling technology.
Some international students remain in Australia as our largest single source of skilled migrants. Others return to their home country to become leaders in business, politics and cultural industries with a respect and appreciation of Australian culture. We should nurture this good will, not trash it.
This essay is based on an episode of the University of Technology Sydney podcast series “<a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/projects/new-social-contract-podcast" target="_blank">The New Social Contract</a>”. The audio series examines how the relationship between universities, the state and the public might be reshaped as we live through this global pandemic.
The next article linked to the podcast will look at universities and the climate.
<a href="https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=649529" target="_blank">Context of the Crisis</a> was made by <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/partners-and-community/initiatives/impact-studios/about-us" target="_blank">Impact Studios</a> at the University of Technology, Sydney - an audio production house combining academic research and audio storytelling.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138796/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julia-horne-16152" target="_blank">Julia Horne</a>, University Historian and Principal Research Fellow, History, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-universities-came-to-rely-on-international-students-138796" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How universities came to rely on international students 

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian universities are suffering revenue and job losses due to the current and projected loss of international students. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">Mitchell Institute</a> report has estimated the sector may lose up to A$19 billion in the next three years, while modelling from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/universities-urged-to-bring-back-international-students-as-researchers-face-huge-job-losses-20200520-p54usd">Universities Australia</a> shows more than 20,000 jobs are at risk over six months, and more after that.
On April 3, Prime Minister <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-australian-parliament-house-act-030420">Scott Morrison said</a> international students in Australia could return home if they could not support themselves. Commentators <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-increases-risk-to-international-students-mental-health-australia-urgently-needs-to-step-up-137596">feared such a flippant attitude</a> would cause Australia to lose its world class reputation if it didn’t come to the aid of international students.
Months of tension with China (the biggest source of Australian university <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://docs.education.gov.au/node/53021">international students</a>, at a third of the total) threatened to further jeopardise our international standing.
On Monday, the Australian <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/20/australia-to-restart-granting-visas-to-international-students-to-lift-struggling-university-sector">government announced</a> it will restart granting international student visas and allow current students to count online study while overseas in a push to restart international education.
But how do we compare with some of Australia’s largest competitors?
Closed campuses
Australia imposed a <a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-132175">ban on travel</a> from China on February 1, stranding an estimated <a href="https://thepienews.com/news/aus-to-resume-student-visa-processing-among-measures-to-boost-sector/">87,000 students</a> abroad who were due to start their academic year in Australia in March.
By that time it was the middle of the second, or winter, semester for Australia’s big English language competitors in the northern hemisphere: the USA, UK and Canada. Most of these countries’ international students stayed to complete their semester, so universities did not suffer an immediate fall in revenue.
But universities in these countries did incur substantial <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6814099/Outlook-Higher-Education-US-18Mar20-1.pdf">additional costs</a> as many completed the semester by transferring teaching online at short notice.
While online education <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-54943-3_10">meets similar standards</a> to campus-based education, students <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">prefer face-to-face learning</a>. This is particularly true for international students, who see immersion in a different culture as one of the main benefits of studying overseas.
In May, many <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/article/2020/05/27/will-active-learning-be-possible-if-colleges-have-physically">US</a> and <a href="https://wonkhe.com/blogs/2020-a-space-and-timetabling-odyssey/">UK</a> universities announced bullish plans to teach their first semester in autumn, starting in September, face-to-face (or mask-to-mask). There were various provisions for plexiglass, physical distancing, masks and regular testing.
But even partial campus reopening plans <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.chronicle.com/article/Colleges-Aren-t-Reopening-in/248803">were never credible</a> in the US when they were announced. Still, many universities in the competitor countries <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.chronicle.com/article/Colleges-Aren-t-Reopening-in/248803">sought to maximise international enrolments</a> by maintaining at least a substantial part of their campuses would be open by September.
The US
US universities no longer seem to be nearly as strong competitors for <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/07/17/rescission-international-student-policy-directive-leaves-unresolved-questions-about">international students</a>. While the number of new COVID-19 cases has bumpily fallen in Australia, Canada and the UK, they have been <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us">increasing in the US</a>.
When it became clear US universities could not responsibly open their campuses, they started <a href="https://www.educationdive.com/news/colleges-walk-back-their-fall-plans-as-coronavirus-cases-spike/581785/">reversing their announcements</a> of opening fully in September.
By July 20 some 53% of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-List-of-Colleges-/248626?cid=RCPACKAGE">1,215 US universities surveyed</a> still planned to teach in person in September, 11% planned online education, 32% planned a mix of online and in person education, and 4% were considering a range of scenarios or had not yet decided their education mode.
US President Donald Trump sought to <a href="https://www.educationdive.com/news/trump-administration-amps-up-pressure-to-reopen-colleges/581166/">pressure universities</a> to open fully by making studying at least partly on campus a condition of international students’ visas. He soon reversed that order, but <a href="https://www.educationdive.com/news/colleges-brace-for-another-attempt-at-enrollment-limits-on-foreign-students/581662/">may issue an alternative</a> seeking the same effect.
US attractiveness as an international study destination is likely to be further reduced by the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.chronicle.com/article/Colleges-Hoped-for-an/249206">instability in universities’ plans</a>, the uncertainty of federal immigration conditions, and continuing restrictions on entry from China and elsewhere.
The United Kingdom
Australian universities are in a much more similar position to UK universities, which are long time and powerful rivals for international students. They are expecting to <a href="https://wonkhe.com/blogs/the-ifs-on-the-covid-19-risk-to-the-sector/">lose substantially</a> from COVID-19’s suppression of international enrolments.
<a href="https://theconversation.edu.au/article-138514">Unlike Australia</a>, the UK government has granted <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-support-package-for-universities-and-students">universities access to government-backed support</a> such as a job retention scheme which includes short-term contracts, and business loan support.
The UK government has also brought forward teaching payments and block research grants, and increased funds for students in financial difficulty.
Unlike Australia, the UK does not impose international travel restrictions but requires entrants from most countries including China and India to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Europe_3">self-isolate for a fortnight</a> after entry. It will therefore remain a more attractive destination for new students until Australia lifts or at least relaxes its travel restrictions.
Canada
Canadian universities and colleges have some distinct advantages over their competitors for international students. They enjoy considerable financial and other <a href="http://higheredstrategy.com/welcome-to-the-2020s/">support from their national and provincial governments</a>.
While Canada’s average proportion of new COVID-19 cases is similar to Australia’s and the UK’s, these are concentrated in the biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal and their environs. The Atlantic provinces have Tasmanian levels of COVID-19 cases, and some of their universities attract <a href="https://higheredstrategy.com/cape-breton-you-have-to-be-kidding-me/">very high proportions of international students</a>.
Canada’s biggest competitive disadvantage is that while it will admit returning international students, it currently is <a href="https://www.canadavisa.com/coronavirus-covid-19-impact-canada-immigration-visa-border-latest-news#gs.b2clmu">not admitting new students</a> for the foreseeable future.
The Canadian government will grant permits to international students who study online from abroad, and <a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/tudge/supporting-international-students-support-australian-jobs">like Australia</a> this will count towards their eligibility for a post-graduation work permit. The government has also introduced a <a href="https://www.cicnews.com/2020/07/canada-makes-huge-changes-to-help-international-students-0715032#gs.ave1np">temporary two-stage approval process for international students</a> to expedite their approval to enter to study on campus when this is permitted.
But Canada is not likely to be a desirable destination for new international students until the government and then institutions can give a firm timetable and clear plans for studying on campus.
So, what should Australia do?
To remain competitive <a href="https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/07/06/how-to-recruit-international-students-in-2020-communicate-communicate-communicate/">compared to the UK</a>, Australian universities should keep prospective students updated on the issues that affect their study decisions such as entry requirements, start dates, and study and accommodation conditions. This communication should be targeted towards education agents and their clients, and be specific to individual students.
Few students and their parents are convinced about the <a href="https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/07/06/how-to-recruit-international-students-in-2020-communicate-communicate-communicate/">value</a> and <a href="https://www.idp-connect.com/en-us/newspage/international-higher-education/international-students-willing-to-quarantine-if-they-can-start-f2f-learning-sooner/">quality</a> of online education. And they fear much of the benefit of immersion in an English speaking <a href="https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/07/06/how-to-recruit-international-students-in-2020-communicate-communicate-communicate/">university environment</a> would be lost if spatial distancing required social distancing.
Australian universities will have to be as clear as they can about the benefits of the study and living conditions students are likely to experience here.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142715/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gavin-moodie-6047">Gavin Moodie</a>, Adjunct professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-likely-are-international-university-students-to-choose-australia-over-the-uk-us-and-canada-142715">original article</a>.
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