Houses

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None of the capital cities are at the peak of the housing market cycle, according to property valuation firm Herron Todd White’s December Month in Review.
“2017 was the year some of our hottest markets decided it was time to take a breather,” according to HTW’s report.
Sydney remains at the start of decline on the property clock, like November. Same for Melbourne, which remains at approaching the peak of market position.
Brisbane has risen one notch from start of recovery and joins the other capital cites of Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra at the rising market position.
Meanwhile, Perth has slipped one notch to reach the bottom of market cycle, joining Darwin, which is the only other capital city at the bottom.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/5/HTWHousesDec.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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However, HTW writes that there were "those sectors that continued to lay dormant while a few even outdid expectations”.
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Hot Sydney takes a breather, with house prices in decline: HTW December 2017 property clock

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Houses in Newcastle, the New South Wales Central Coast and Coffs Harbour are still at the peak of market, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White’s July property clock.
Houses in those three regions were at the top of HTW's property clock <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/71414-newcastle-new-south-wales-central-coast-and-coffs-harbour-houses-at-market-peak-htw" target="_blank">last month</a>.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-13%20at%208.11.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Herron Todd White said finding a property with a lazy $500,000 is becoming increasingly difficult in the NSW Central Coast region as a result of market value increases over the past two years. The analyst firm said There are still some areas where the owner- occupiers and investors are looking to buy at this level and can be accommodated, however the pool of stock is shrinking.
"We think most buys in the housing market will be found in the older suburbs at the northern end of the region," HTW said.
"Some parts of Blue Haven, San Remo, Gorokan, Toukley, Budgewoi and Charmhaven are still offering properties at or below the $500,000 mark.
"These properties are mostly single level, 2- or 3-bedroom bro or brick and tile homes, mostly with garaging on average size blocks of land. If villas or townhouses are being considered, then reasonably priced stock is available within Mardi and Watanobbi.
"The middle of the region includes suburbs like Bateau Bay, Killarney Vale, The Entrance and Long Jetty. While still available, properties with a $500,000 price tag are becoming rare and will mostly be limited to villas, townhouses and units.
"There are a few dwellings seen at this level, however these properties will be older style and most likely in need of renovations or repairs.
"Killarney Vale and Berkeley Vale are good, solid suburbs with equally good facilities.
"There is a good vibe in these locations for younger buyers and families.
"Buys at the $500,000 mark are becoming limited, yet they are still around and it’s our recommendation to look here.
"Expect an older dwelling with 3-bedrooms and room to improve. 
"With the Newcastle market running hot for a lengthy period of time, first home buyers and growing families are looking at alternative and cheaper options in outer suburbs and nearby towns. Medowie and Raymond Terrace are two of these areas both around 35 minutes drive from the Newcastle CBD.
"Half a million dollars will get you quite a bit more house and land compared to the inner suburbs of Newcastle and for growing families it is just not practical to live in a 2-bedroom unit when you can get a modern 4-bedroom house on 1000 square metres for the same price.
"Medowie’s two major economy drivers and employers are the nearby airport and RAAF base.
"A current expansion of the RAAF base and the proposed upgrade to an international airport have created more job opportunities and a subsequent high demand for property. The Bower Medowie subdivision which recently opened stage one sold out all 31 lots in 48 hours with some buyers camping out to ensure purchase. "
 
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Houses in Newcastle, NSW Central Coast and Coffs Harbour still at market peak: HTW

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Nationally, 8.0 percent of houses and 12.7 percent of units were resold at a loss over the September 2016 quarter, according to CoreLogic's latest Pain and Gain report.
The property data firm says that splitting this out across the capital cities and regional areas shows that for houses, 5.6 percent resold at a loss in the capital cities and 11.7 percent resold at a loss outside of the capital cities.
For units, 10.2 percent resold at a loss in the capital cities compared to 18.4 percent across regional areas of the country.
Sydney was the only major region nationally in which the proportion of units sold at a loss over the September 2016 quarter was lower than houses.
In many of the regions analysed the difference was significant with Melbourne, Brisbane, regional NT and the Australian Capital Territory recording a proportion of loss-making resales for units that was more than double that of houses.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/30/Corelogic-05.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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The historical data indicates that it has been extremely rare for resales of houses to record a higher proportion of loss than units.
This is reflective of the fact that house values have typically increased at a more rapid pace than units.
It is also reflective of the fact that historically houses have recorded high buyer demand against a backdrop of constrained supply.
In a market like Sydney where more units have been built than houses over the past two decades - and the gap between house and unit prices is substantial - CoreLogic noted the trend had changed recently with units proving less likely to resell at a loss than houses.
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Units resold more often at a loss than houses everywhere but Sydney: CoreLogic Pain and Gain

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Despite a median house price of $706,000 and apartment price of $545,500, many of Melbourne’s desirable suburbs boast homes at $200,000-plus, the REIV pinpointing the inner north and south of the city.
Melbourne’s most affordable one-bedroom apartments are located in Carlton – which recorded a June median price of $207,750.
Carnegie, in Melbourne’s south-east, delivered a median for similar sized apartments of $292,500.
“Affordable property around Melbourne is not restricted to the outer suburbs," REIV chief Enzo Raimondo said. 
"Apartments allow first home buyers to get a foothold on the property ladder, especially in highly sought after areas such as Carlton,” he said. 
<a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/portal/search?rm=search&amp;journeyplanner=0&amp;jpwkend=0&amp;jpday=1&amp;jpdate=1&amp;jpstime=0&amp;jpetime=0&amp;P=1&amp;ptr=r&amp;con=D&amp;portalview=residential&amp;portalsection=sold&amp;bs=12&amp;sub=Carlton+VIC+3053%2C+&amp;sur=bord&amp;pt=uni&amp;prl=0&amp;prh=300&amp;bel=0&amp;beh=0" target="_blank">Realestateview.com.au </a>sales show a strong student accommodation presence.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Carlton's $207,000 apartment median 

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Ipswich houses are now in a rising market timeframe, according to the HTW August 2015 property clock.
And Mackay houses are now deemed by the valuers as in decline.  
 
<a href="/images/2015/08/10/Clock20-20August20201520Data-01.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Ipswich houses rising while Mackay is in decline: HTW August 2015 property clock

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Capital gains growth has returned to the highest level since April last year, according to CoreLogic RP Data's August 2015 Housing Market and Economic Update.
The review found house capital gains over the last 12 months was 11.6% and units 7.2%.
<a href="/images/2015/08/11/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-11%20at%206.35.31%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Annual property capital gain back to April 2014 highs: CoreLogic RP Data

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The latest capital city data relating to the average number of days it takes to sell a residential property shows that in May homes were selling at close to their fastest rate on record driven by record sales rates in Sydney and Melbourne.
Acacia Gardens in Sydney was the fastest sellling suburb for houses across Australia, according to CoreLogic RP Data's analyst Cameron Kusher.
Recent sales included a <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/50-wilson-road-acacia-gardens/Property-Details-sold-residential-8548856" target="_blank">three bedroom brick home for $765,000</a>, set five minutes drive to Stanhope Village Centre and 10 minutes to Rouse Hill Town Centre.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">The median price is at a record $678,000</a> having been at $515,000 in early 2013.
The average time on market figure is measured by the difference between the initial listing date of a property for sale and the contract date.
CoreLogic RP Data notes if the days on market are short it is typically indicative of a seller’s market where homes are selling rapidly and buyers have little time to ponder a purchase decision.
When the average selling time starts to rise, buyers will typically have more scope to deliberate their decision and negotiate on the purchase price.
Short selling times will typically coincide with rising prices and long selling times will generally see less upwards price pressures.
The latest combined capital city data showed that homes were on average taking 37 days to sell. The rate of sale was close to a record low and across the two largest cities homes were selling at their fastest rate on record at 26 days in Sydney and 32 days in Melbourne. It is important to note that these figures are focussed solely on private treaty sales and don’t include properties sold at auction.
The suburb level data to April also highlights a rapid rate of sale across certain capital city suburbs.
"The chart highlights that the suburbs with the shortest days on market have much lower figures in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the remaining capital cities," he said.
'The other point to note is that in most cities it is either the more affordable of ‘middle’ priced suburbs where the rate of sale is quickest.
"It reflects the fact that those areas with the largest pool of buyers are typically going to achieve sales quicker," Cameron Kusher said.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/property-pulse/article-graphs-img/2015-07-20--01--houses-top5-capital-city-suburbs-shortest-days-on-market-April2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
Houses | Top 5 capital city suburbs with the shortest days on market, April 2015
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/property-pulse/article-graphs-img/2015-07-20--01--houses-top5-capital-city-suburbs-shortest-days-on-market-April2015.jpg">
 
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Sold in 16 days - little known Acacia Gardens headlines Australia's fastest selling suburbs

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Melbourne house prices are tipped to fall 9%, while Sydney prices will climb further and then hold their value, analysis for an unpublished paper under review for the Economic Record has found.
It covers price forecasts for freestanding houses. 
Sydney prices would "continue to rise till the end of 2015 then start plateauing with no anticipated sharp falls".
But Melbourne prices could begin falling almost immediately, falling 9.2% in the year ahead, while Brisbane's prices will fall 8.1% and Perth's 5.2%, according to the analysis.
Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra will continue to climb slowly.
<div>The research by Abbas Valadkhani of Swinburne University, Ronald Ratti from the University of Western Sydney and Greg Costello from Curtin University looked at monthly house price data back to 1995.</div>
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<div id="adspot-300x250-pos3">"This doesn't predict every see-saw movement," Dr Valadkhani told Fairfax Media's economics editor Peter Martin.</div>
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<div>"It only predicts the general direction of prices. If it could predict exact movements we would be multimillionaires and wouldn't need to work in academia. The actual prices could be a little bit above or a little bit below the trend we are predicting."</div>
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<div>The authors believe their model is the first to be updatable each month, possibly providing advance notice of turning points.</div>
Asked by Peter Martin why Sydney house prices would keep climbing and then plateau while Melbourne prices fell, Dr Valadkhani said the model didn't give reasons. However, its predictions were consistent with  continuing shortages and oversupply.
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