Home Lending

EXPERT OBSERVER

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows that new lending in South Australia is at record levels as South Australian Senators look set to be the vital votes to save safe lending laws.

Home lending is booming in South Australia. We haven&rsquo;t seen such startling levels of lending since records began in 2003.

The ABS figures show:&nbsp;

- Lending for new South Australian owner-occupier loans is at the highest level since records began in 2003. Lending for new homes is 41% higher than in April 2020.

- Lending for South Australian first home buyers in April 2021 is 48% higher than April 2020.

- New lending for investor housing has increased 41% since April 2020.

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The general signs of economic recovery mask the strong risks for borrowers in a booming housing market.

The state faces the perfect storm of rising levels of household debt, ultra-cheap credit, flatlining wages, hidden underemployment and key government support tapering off.

Housing unaffordability is also reaching a crisis point in South Australia. Median house prices in Adelaide have ticked over half a million dollars. Families are having to take on increasingly larger debts to simply enter the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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The ABS data comes as the government struggles to garner enough support in the Senate to axe safe lending laws.

The laws were put in place in 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis to prevent reckless lending observed in the lead up and during the crisis.

The legislation has been slammed by key crossbench Senators, including Senator Jacqui Lambie and Senator Pauline Hanson.

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Safe lending laws are a critical consumer protection to ensure that banks do not lend recklessly to Australians.

Now more than ever, when credit is cheap and home lending is booming, we need strong safe lending laws to ensure banks don&#39;t sell people into loans they won&rsquo;t be able to afford down the track.

The Banking Royal Commission heard shocking stories of banks lending money to people who the lender knew would never be able to repay the loan, including people with disabilities, pensioners, and problem gamblers.

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If safe lending laws are axed, there won&rsquo;t be any penalties for this kind of behaviour. Banks won&rsquo;t be fined, and they won&rsquo;t have to pay compensation.

Rebekha Sharkie from Centre Alliance spoke out against the government&rsquo;s changes in the lower house, and independent Senator Rex Patrick has expressed strong concerns.

We encourage Senators Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick to continue to stand up to the banks and government, and vote down the government&rsquo;s changes when they hit the Senate.

People need protection from unsafe lending, as Senate vote imminent

max.kwok_55688

Home lending in SA at record levels: CHOICE

<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

It&rsquo;s been quite the week for the Aussie property market. National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs. Leading indicators of construction activity are also at the highest level on record, pointing to continued home price gains this year and next.

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect prices to lift by a combined 14 per cent in 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;

That said, home price growth and residential building activity could ease from elevated levels as affordability constraints for first home buyers, the HomeBuilder expiry, shortages of tradies, supply disruptions, rising building material costs and slower population growth combine to weigh on demand. Of course, a prolonged period of record low interest rates - as signalled by the Reserve Bank - remains a key support for new home building and &lsquo;renos&rsquo;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

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The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and Housing Industry Association&rsquo;s (HIA) Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from historic highs in April. But the underlying activity index climbed 5.1 points to a record high of 62.8 points as building work increased ahead of the HomeBuilder grant deadline on March 31. While house building activity is a smidgen below February&rsquo;s record levels, engineering construction lifted 2.3 points to an all-time high of 63.8 as infrastructure-related building cranked up a gear courtesy of state government spending.

And the pipeline of residential building work is expected to remain elevated in the near-term if leading indicators of activity, such as building approvals, are any guide. Council approvals to build new homes surged by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units. The value of alterations &amp; additions approved were up by 7.3 per cent in March to a record $1,072.5 million.

Western Australian building approvals - while down in March - were up a massive 129.2 per cent on a year ago. And the rolling annual number of Greater Perth building approvals hit a 4&frac12;-year high of 19,427 units in March. The building boom is also evident in Queensland and South Australia with March approvals up 82.2 per cent and 69.6 per cent, respectively, on a year ago. Rolling annual numbers are broadly at 2-year highs in both states. &nbsp;

New car sales have bounced back from their most recent cycle low in October 2020. Sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the most sales for an April month on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago &ndash; from the depths of pandemic lockdown.

While the global semiconductor chip shortage is weighing on the supply of new cars for eager car buyers, its boosting the profits of car dealerships with less price discounting due to low inventories and strong buyer demand. Peter Warren Automotive (PWA Holdings) made a successful Aussie sharemarket debut last week, joining Eagers Automotive and Autosports Group as the only car dealership groups on the Australian Stock Exchange.&nbsp;

What do you need to know?&nbsp;

Building Approvals &ndash; March

Council approvals to build new homes rose by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years.

Total house approvals rose by 1.2 per cent to a record-high 14,404 units in March to be up 62.2 per cent on a year ago. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units to be up 60.9 per cent on a year ago. Public sector house approvals surged 117.4 per cent in March to 287 units but were still up a massive 173.3 per cent on a year ago.

Apartment approvals jumped 59.4 per cent to a 2&frac12;-year high of 8,772 units in March to be up 28.1 per cent on a year ago.

Over the past year 198,439 new homes were approved - a 2-year high.

Dwelling approvals across states in March: NSW (+26.9 per cent); Victoria (+24.7 per cent); Queensland &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; (+12.1 per cent); South Australia (+3.5 per cent); Western Australia (-6.4 per cent); Tasmania (-4.8 per cent).

The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 36.3 per cent in March. Total residential approvals lifted 22.9 per cent with new building up 25.4 per cent and alterations &amp; additions up by 7.3 per cent to all-time highs. Commercial building umped 59.4 per cent.&nbsp;

New vehicle sales - April

New vehicle sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the highest number of sales for the month of April on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported:

&ldquo;The April 2021 market of 92,347 new vehicle sales is an increase of 53,421 vehicle sales or 137.2 per cent on April 2020 (38,926) vehicle sales. April 2021 had 23.6 selling days compared to April 2020 with 23.9 which resulted in an increase of 2284.3 vehicle sales per day.

The Passenger Vehicle Market is up by 8,906 vehicle sales (97.2 per cent) over the same month last year; the Sports Utility Market is up by 31,154 vehicle sales (172.9 per cent); the Light Commercial Market is up by 12,278 vehicle sales (130.1 per cent); and the Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market is up by 1,083 vehicle sales (46.9 per cent) versus April 2020.

Toyota was market leader in April, followed by Mazda and Mitsubishi. Toyota led Mazda with a margin of 10,156 vehicle sales and 11.0 market share points.&rdquo; &nbsp;

Sales across states and territories over the year to April: NSW (up 143.9 per cent); Victoria (up 142.0 per cent); Queensland (up 144.4 per cent); South Australia (up 134.7 per cent); Western Australia (up 139.0 per cent); Tasmania (up 157.6 per cent); Northern Territory (up 98.4 per cent); ACT (up 4.1 per cent).

In the 12 months to April, sales totalled 1,000,676 &ndash; a 13-month high &ndash; to be up 1.0 per cent on a year ago. In the year to April, SUVs accounted for a record 69.3 per cent of combined SUV and passenger car sales.

AiGroup &amp; HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) &ndash; April

The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from a record high of 61.8 in March to 59.1 in April. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, PCI activity rose 5.1 points in April to a record 62.8. But employment fell 3.9 points to 59.2. New orders lost 7.7 points to 57. Supplier deliveries were down 6.1 points to 56.0 &ndash; but all three readings are hovering just below historic highs in March. And input prices eased 0.4 points in April to 92.5. Selling prices rose 1.5 points to a record 73.3 and average wages fell 6.4 points to 65.4.

Ai-Group noted: &ldquo;The new orders index appears to have peaked in Q1 of 2021, reflecting the very successful HomeBuilders program. This is in line with recent house approvals and financing trends. Although approvals have already peaked, the pipeline of work created by this spike in demand is likely to keep home builders busy for many months to come.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Builders across all sectors continue to report shortages of skilled trades contractors, key supplies and components. They also report rising input prices, freight delays and high freight charges. Home builders remain wary of a post-HomeBuilder demand slump but are hopeful that low interest rates and other factors will help to support demand.&rdquo;

IHS Markit Purchasing Managers&rsquo; indexes (PMI) &ndash; April

The &lsquo;final&rsquo; IHS Markit services purchasing manager index rose from 55.5 in March to a record 58.8 in April. The composite index, which measures combined services and manufacturing output, rose from 55.5 to an historic high of 58.9. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity. Data collection began in May 2016.

IHS Markit economists reported, &ldquo;April PMI data signalled that business activity across the Australian service sector rose at the strongest pace since data collection began in May 2016, reflecting further moves towards recovery. This was aided by the further easing of COVID-19 restrictions which boosted customer confidence and demand alike.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Service providers were enthused by the upturn in demand and expanding their workforce numbers at the joint-fastest pace on record. Nonetheless, strains on business capacity remained evident and intensified amid ongoing supplier delays.&rdquo;

What are the implications for investors?

The HomeBuilder stimulus has been incredibly successful. Commonwealth Treasury data shows that 121,363 HomeBuilder applications have been received since June 2020 with Victorian applications highest at 35,169 as at April 9, 2021. The federal government has said that the scheme has supported around $30 billion of residential projects, supporting jobs and boosting building activity following the pandemic shock.

While there are concerns that the demand pull-forward of council building approvals ahead of the HomeBuilder expiry could ease, construction bottlenecks have seen the federal government recently announce the extension of the building commencement requirement of the program, supporting activity. That said, construction prices are lifting with the PCI selling prices up 1.5 points in April to 73.3, signalling that builders are passing on their cost increases to home buyers and renovators. With inflationary pressures building - and home prices and new investor lending lifting &ndash; housing credit growth appears set to accelerate. Given this backdrop, an eventual policy response from regulators appears likely. &nbsp;

National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs

jordan_55689

Home values to rise by combined 14% in 2021 and 2022: CBA's Ryan Felsman

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EXPERT INSIGHT

First homebuyers commitments hit the highest level since the Rudd stimulus of 2009 in November 2020, as Victoria rebounded strongly post-lockdown.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/fhb_commitments_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="329" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/fhb_commitments_jan.jpg?itok=YCZS6Qwy" width="580"></a></figure>Owner-occupier lending is exceptionally strong in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="338" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_jan.jpg?itok=NpRBYFsH" width="580"></a></figure>And, as expected, investment lending is now increasing, up by 6 per cent in November to be higher than a year ago, also driven by strength in New South Wales and Queensland. 

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_2_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="328" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_2_jan.jpg?itok=1JdKns_K" width="580"></a></figure>RBA research showed that a permanent 100 basis point decline in the cash rate would likely result in a 30 per cent increase in real housing prices after about three years, which looks eminently possible from these figures, with supply-constrained markets with a concentration of investors seeing the largest effect.
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First home buyer commitments hit the highest level since the Rudd stimulus of 2009 in November 2020

pwargent

Housing lending surges to record high off Victorian rebound post lockdown

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CBA currently has deferred repayments on 135,000, or eight per cent, of its home loans.
It covers $48 billion of loans.
It was 154,00 home loan deferrals at the COVID-19 peak.
There were 250,000 deferred loans all up, as 15 per cent of its business loans are also deferred totalling $14 billion in deferrals.
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But its recent home lending has proved resilient, rising by 1.3 times the average of the system, or $18.4 billion over the year.
There was $100 billion in new home lending, with just 25 percent going to investors.
It equated to four per cent volume growth.
The average home loan was at a record $352,000, up from $317,000 a year ago.
Home loan arrears sit at low levels.
Some 40 percent of CBA borrowers are one year or more in advance in their payments.
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The portfolio LVR remained stable.
It advised 70 percent of its book originated under tighter lending standards adopted in 2016.
The book has split 68 percent with owner occupiers; 30 percent investors and 2 percent with a line of credit.
Some 16 percent are on interest only loans, down from 22 percent a year ago.
Revenue was up two per cent over the year to $23.9 billion after CBA was flooded with new deposits, with deposits now providing 74 per cent of total funding, up from 69 per cent over the past year.
"We anticipate that lower credit growth and low interest rates will continue to put pressure on our revenue, requiring a focus on performance, efficiency and capital allocation," the CBA CEO Matt Comyn said.
"Despite the challenging environment, operational performance in the business remains strong. Combined with our strong balance sheet and capital position, this enables us to continue supporting customers and the economy."
Commonwealth Bank has announced an 11.3 per cent drop in full-year cash profit to $7.3 billion as it ramped up provisions against loan losses. 
It will pay a 98¢ final dividend.
The full-year dividend of $2.98 per share, fully-franked, is down 31 per cent on 2019.
Analysts had been expecting a final dividend of 92¢ cents, the lowest final dividend since 2006.
CBA’s shares have been trading at 6.5 per cent lower so far this year. 
The other banking majors will provide investors third-quarter updates over the coming week.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

CBA boosts home loan lending as home loans hits record $352,000

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Home buyers continued to take advantage of low interest rates with a greater proportion fixing their home loans in the first three months of the year, according to a report released by ASX-listed Australian Finance Group.
The start of calendar 2016 has seen lending for fixed rate products peak at 17.7 percent of AFG’s total volume for the quarter, according to the company's Mortgage Index.
By comparison, the percentage of those fixing their rates in the first quarter of the 2016 financial year was 11.4 percent. 
“With sections of the money market making the call of a rate cut in the coming months there are some very attractive fixed rates available. With rates being at historical lows the downside risk of fixing is relatively small so many borrowers are choosing to lock in now,” said Mark Hewitt, AFG general manager, Sales and Operations.
“Despite this month’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold at a record low 2% there are also no guarantees lenders won’t make their own moves outside the RBA cycle. Some are talking about increased funding and regulatory costs and locking the low rates in now is a way borrowers can insulate themselves against any out of cycle increases by the banks. This quarter has also seen investor numbers on the rise again, with an increase from 31 percent of AFG’s total volume to 33 percent as lenders return to the investor market having fallen below the growth cap set by the regulator last year.”
AFG’s overall volume was up 5.7 percent on the same quarter in 2015, with Victoria leading the states with an increase of 15.7 percent, followed by SA up 11.3 percent, NSW up 10.5 percent and Queensland recording a rise of 7.6 percent. The resources downturn has hit WA activity with that state recording a drop of 16.7 percent and NT dropping by 28 percent on the same time last year.
“In a positive message for the health of the lending market, the average LVR (loan to value ratio) of 68 percent is the lowest it has been for three years,” said Hewitt.
“This means homebuyers are continuing to borrow within their capabilities.”
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Fixed rates for home mortgage in favour: AFG index

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Figures from the ABS show a healthy rise in home lending finance during June, according to Shane Garrett, senior economist for the Housing Industry Association.
In June 2016, the number of loans to owner-occupiers for dwelling construction rose by 2.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, while loans for new homes grew 2.7 percent. 
New home lending volumes went up by 2.3 percent over the month and 6.3 percent higher than June 2015.
 Shane Garrett, HIA senior economist said the RBA cut its interest rate at the beginning of May so June’s housing finance results are the first month’s data to fully capture the effect of cheaper mortgage costs.
“Encouragingly, prospective homebuyers seem to have taken advantage of the lower interest rate environment as evidenced by today’s positive results for new home lending,” he said. 
“June was also dominated by the close federal election campaign which was the source of some uncertainty across the economy. Today’s data indicate that the benefits of lower interest rates trumped any reluctance by buyers to enter the market during the tight election race. It’s therefore likely that last week’s interest rate cut will help bolster activity on the new home building side."
<a href="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%2012.49.37%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%2012.49.37%20PM.png" alt="">
Loans to owner occupiers constructing or purchasing new homes increased in a number of states over the year to June 2016 when compared to the same period last year. The strongest growth was in Victoria (19.1 percent) New South Wales (10.8 percent) and Queensland (4.3 percent). Falls were recorded in Western Australian (20.7 percent), and the Northern Territory (17.7 percent) and Tasmania (3.5 percent). 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

June increase for new home lending: HIA

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate at 1.5% at its June policy meeting.
The Governor’s decision statement also showed little substantive change although there were some notable shifts in the discussion around housing and labour markets.
A subsequent speech by the RBA Governor added more colour, indicating that while the economy was still moving in the right direction, the outlook for consumers, labour markets and wages growth remained uncertain and progress towards the Bank’s expected lift in incomes and inflation would be slow.
With labour market updates continuing to show job gains moderating and the economy’s ‘full employment’ unemployment rate likely to have moved lower, progress could be very slow indeed – more ‘glacial’ than ‘gradual’.
The key parts of the June decision statement were unchanged from May.
The closing paragraph was identical, retaining the line that “Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual.” The core narrative of the statement was also essentially unchanged: a strengthening global economy with financial conditions expansionary (notwithstanding recent events and some increase in short term rates); an Australian economy tracking towards growth a little above 3%; consumers a continuing source of uncertainty but indicators pointing to a gradual reduction in unemployment and the outlook pointing to a gradual pick-up in inflation.
Where there were changes, these tended to be mainly ‘housekeeping’ in nature, either incorporating recent developments, rolling commentary to reflect the local data calendar or simply the passage of time.
Where shifts went a little further was around housing and labour markets.
The housing slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne was noted, as per May. More significantly, the statement notes a slowdown in investor housing credit, retaining a line that “APRA’s supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets” but adding that “while there may be some further tightening of lending standards, the average mortgage interest rate on outstanding loans is continuing to decline.”
Together this is a strong indication that, to the extent that we are seeing an additional tightening in lending standards weigh on housing markets, the Bank views this as part of an important ‘de-risking’ exercise that is likely to have few material spillover effects to the wider economy.
That looks to be an optimistic assessment in our view. Firstly, rates and conditions on the ‘marginal’ loan are more important for market conditions.
Secondly, the slight decline in the average mortgage rate ignores a likely rise in average repayments as borrowers shift from ‘interest only’ to ‘principal and interest’ loans.
And thirdly, the discussion ignores potential negative spillovers via confidence and wealth effects (see the ‘Aus consumer incomes, wealth and demand’ article in our latest monthly Market Outlook report for a more detailed discussion).
The Governor’s statement carried a little less conviction around the labour market, the unemployment rate described as “little changed at around 5½ per cent for much of the past year” compared to last month when it was described as having “declined over the last year but … been steady … for some months” with a comment contrasting the improving labour market with low wages growth cut back to simply observe “wages growth remains low”.
While we warn against ‘over-reading’ these sorts of language changes we note that the RBA’s official forecasts currently have only a modest decline in the unemployment rate – down 0.25% to 5.25% by mid 2020 – and that the ‘full employment’ level below which conditions would be expected to see wage inflation pick up is thought to be somewhat lower.
This more circumspect assessment of prospective labour market conditions showed through in a more recent speech from the Governor on June 13. This reiterated the Bank’s general view that the economy is moving in the right direction, noting the slightly stronger than expected March quarter GDP result.
The Governor also repeated the broad expectation that “the next move in interest rates will be up, not down”. However, that line was more heavily qualified, with particular respect to the focus of the speech: uncertainties around labour markets and wages. Many conditions need to be met before the Bank would contemplate a move: the economy would need to continue “moving in the right direction”; household incomes would need to be “growing more quickly than they are now”; labour market slack would need to be lessening; and the Bank would need to be reasonably confident that inflation is moving back towards target. Most of this would require wages growth faster than the 2% pace we are current experiencing.
The RBA is likely uneasy about the latest labour market data.
Official figures continue to show a loss of momentum in jobs growth with utilisation flattening at levels indicating significant slack. Private business surveys suggest hiring should hold up but the latest Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey showed a notable weakening in unemployment expectations.
On wages, growth may have troughed but evidence of a meaningful lift remains scant. Certainly, a return to 3% wage growth looks a long way off.
We continue to expect policy to be unchanged in 2018 and 2019 and suspect the Governor’s resolve will be sorely tested by a return to sub-par growth against a backdrop of little or no progress towards its labour market, wage and inflation goals. 
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA is optimistic about the spillover effects of tightening in housing lending standards: Westpac's Matt Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Today I will summarise the Bank's assessment of the various measures put in place to address the risks around housing lending. I will draw on Chapter 5 of the recent Financial Stability Review (FSR). I think it is important in terms of accountability that we provide our assessment of the effect the measures are having and continually review whether they are achieving the desired intent.
The motivation for implementing these various measures was to address the mounting risk to household balance sheets arising from the rapid growth of certain forms of lending, in particular lending to investors and interest-only (IO) lending. The strong growth in investor borrowing was increasing the risk that investor activity could be excessively boosting housing prices and construction and so increasing the probability of a subsequent sharp unwinding. This risk is greater for investor borrowing than owner-occupiers as investors can behave pro-cyclically, withdrawing from the market as it declines. The rise in the prevalence of interest-only borrowing for both investors and owner-occupiers increased the overall risk profile of household borrowing. No principal is repaid during the IO period, and the increase in required repayments can be large when the IO period expires.
I don't see the riskiness of the borrowing as being the source of the negative shock. My concern is for its potential to be an accelerator to a negative shock from another source. To put it another way, I don't regard it as likely that household borrowing will collapse under its own weight. Rather, if a negative shock were to hit the Australian economy, particularly one that caused a sizeable rise in unemployment, then the risk on the household balance sheet would magnify the adverse effect of that shock. This would have first order consequences for the economy and hence also for monetary policy.
To repeat the conclusion of the assessment in the FSR: the measures have helped to reduce the riskiness of new borrowing. In turn, this has stemmed the increase in household sector vulnerabilities and improved the resilience of the economy to future shocks. The measures have led to a slowing in credit growth but there is little evidence to suggest that the measures have excessively constrained aggregate credit supply. Housing credit growth has slowed, but it is still running at 5 per cent.
The various measures implemented to address the riskiness of housing lending fall into three categories:<a id="r1" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-dg-2018-11-15#fn1"> </a>
<ol>
<li>Lending standards or serviceability criteria. This includes tightening up the assessment and verification of borrower income and expenses, the discouragement of high loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) loans and ensuring that minimum interest rate buffers were being applied, including on existing loans.</li>
<li>Investor lending growth benchmark. A 10 per cent cap on investor lending growth was introduced in December 2014.</li>
<li>A cap on the share of interest-only loans in new lending of no more than 30 per cent.</li>
</ol>
These measures were introduced progressively over a number of years. The scrutiny on serviceability by both APRA and ASIC has been underway for over four years now. For example, in September 2015, APRA noted that by then, serviceability practices had been tightened, such as the haircutting of various forms of income, including rental income. At the same time, APRA reported that minimum interest rate buffers and floors were also being more consistently applied.
This means that these tighter lending standards have been in place for a while now. They are not a recent phenomenon. But this also makes assessing the overall impact difficult in some cases, though the effect of some of the measures has been obvious. There clearly has also been an interaction between them.
What Has Been the Effect of These Various Measures?
1. Different interest rates are now charged across the various types of mortgages. Interest rates are higher on investor lending and interest-only lending than they are on owner-occupier lending (Graph 1). Previously there was little, if any, variation in the interest rate charged on different types of loans, beyond the size of the discount that varied with borrower income and the size of the loan.
<div>Graph 1</div>
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<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-dg-2018-11-15-graph1.gif" alt="Graph 1: Variable Housing Interest Rates">
<div>Rather than use quantitative restrictions on the flow of new investor or interest-only lending to meet the requirements, banks chose to increase the interest rate on all loans of these types, both new <cite>and</cite> existing. Judging by what happened, it appears that the impact of the interest rate changes on borrower activity was difficult to calibrate. The banks seem to have increased rates by more than enough to achieve the requirements with most significantly undershooting the caps on both investor lending growth and the share of IO loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>2. Investor lending growth took a while to respond to the introduction of the growth benchmark, in part because banks didn't increase interest rates on investor loans until some time after its introduction (Graph 2). But there was a sharp and immediate slowing in response to the cap on IO lending. The share of IO loans in the flow of new lending declined sharply from 40 per cent in March 2017 to 17 per cent by September 2017 and has remained around 15 per cent since then. At the same time, the share of new lending with LVRs greater than 90 per cent has declined for both owner-occupiers and investors. In particular, there is now only a very small amount of loans to investors being written with LVRs over 90 per cent. Investor credit is now barely growing. Lending to owner-occupiers has slowed but is still growing at 6½ per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Graph 2</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-dg-2018-11-15-graph2.gif" alt="Graph 2: Investor Housing Credit Growth"></div>
<div>3. As a result there has been a sizeable shift in the composition of the stock of housing lending. In addition, in response to both measures, a sizeable number of borrowers switched from an investor and/or IO loan to a principal and interest (P&amp;I) owner-occupier loan reflecting the now significant interest differential. As a result of switching and weaker growth of investor lending, we estimate the share of housing loans to investors has declined by 5 percentage points to around one-third. Interest-only loans currently comprise 27 per cent of the stock, having been as much as 40 per cent (Graph 3). These changes decrease the riskiness of the stock of housing lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Graph 3</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-dg-2018-11-15-graph3.gif" alt="Graph 3: Interest-only Lending"></div>
<div>4. There has been a decrease in maximum loan sizes offered by banks to new borrowers in response to the tightening of the serviceability requirements. How big an effect might this have?<a id="r2" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-dg-2018-11-15#fn2">[2]</a> As any of you who have applied for a home loan may know, often the bank is willing to lend you much more than you want to borrow. Now they are willing to lend you less on average, by around 20 per cent. How much impact this actually has in aggregate depends on how many people are now constrained by this lower maximum loan size that weren't previously. Using data from the HILDA survey, we estimate that the share of borrowers who are near their maximum loan and so are affected by this change is small, though for those who are constrained the effect can be quite large. Our assessment is that the aggregate impact is less than it would appear on the face of it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>5. As a consequence of the greater scrutiny of interest-only lending and the tightening of serviceability requirements, some borrowers are no longer able to roll over their IO loan at the expiry of the IO period. The shift to a P&amp;I loan can cause their required payments to increase by as much as 30–40 per cent.<a id="r3" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-dg-2018-11-15#fn3">[3]</a> Liaison with lenders suggests that some borrowers have encountered repayment difficulties after switching to P&amp;I repayments at the end of their IO terms, but that many have subsequently been able to adjust to higher payments within a year. Loan-level data from the Reserve Bank's Securitisation Dataset supports this. It is also worth remembering that this process has already being going for quite some time, but we have yet to see it have a material effect on arrears rates. It still has a couple more years to run before the stock of expiring IO loans will have all been written under the current tighter serviceability criteria. But based on the experience to date, I don't see this is a material risk, particularly given the current favourable macro environment.</div>
Competition
Turning now to look at the effect on these measures on competition. (This is covered in more detail in the FSR Chapter). The investor lending benchmark did have a competitive impact for a time in that it constrained the ability of smaller lenders to gain market share by increasing their lending faster than 10 per cent. That said, with investor lending growing at or below 5 per cent since early 2016, it has not been a significant constraint on most lenders increasing their market share for some time now. Indeed, recently we have seen smaller lenders again gaining market share. Currently the major banks' share of new lending is at its lowest in a decade. At the same time, there was no constraint on the ability of smaller lenders to gain market share in the owner-occupier market. The interest-only cap did not obviously have an effect on competition. Again, with nearly all lenders well below the 30 per cent threshold, it is not a binding constraint on lenders from increasing their market share.
The tighter lending standards have seen an increasing share of borrowers obtain finance from non-ADI lenders. These lenders are subject to regulatory oversight but less than that of ADI lenders. They are subject to ASIC's responsible lending standards but not to prudential supervision by APRA. Non-ADIs' housing lending has been growing rapidly, over twice the rate of growth of ADIs. As a result, the estimated non-ADI share of housing credit has also increased, although it remains less than 5 per cent of the total.
Effect on the Housing Market
The integral relationship between debt and housing prices means that these measures have clearly influenced conditions in the housing market. The FSR analyses in detail the impact on the housing market of the investor lending benchmark in 2014. It uses the fact that the share of investors varies across different parts of the housing market. Differentiating between ‘high’ investor regions and ‘low’ investor regions, the analysis shows that high investor regions had very similar price growth to low investor regions before the benchmark was implemented. In contrast, after the benchmark was introduced, house price growth has been notably slower in the higher investor regions.
Other factors may have also contributed to the divergent price growth between the high and low investor regions. For example, regions with a high share of investors may have also experienced larger increases in housing supply and so slower price growth in the period after the benchmark was introduced. The analysis attempts to control for these other factors and concludes that the policy effect accounts for around two-thirds of the 7 percentage point difference in average cumulative housing price growth between high and low investor regions from December 2014 to mid 2018 (Graph 4).
<div>
<div>Graph 4</div>
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-dg-2018-11-15-graph4.gif" alt="Graph 4: Housing Price Growth in High and Low Investor Regions">
</div>
Again it is worth reiterating that the measures are aimed at the resilience of household balance sheets, <cite>not</cite> house prices. The assessment of their effectiveness is around the riskiness of household balance sheets, not the outcomes in the housing market. But at the same time, they clearly are having a notable effect on the housing market.
Housing construction activity has been at a high level for some time now. Our forecast is for it to continue at this level for at least a year given the amount of work in the pipeline. Beyond that, we expect construction activity to decline from its peak. Off-the-plan apartment sales in the major east coast cities have declined since around mid 2017, with developers citing weaker demand from domestic investors, as well as from foreign buyers. One risk is that tighter lending standards could amplify the downturn in apartment markets if some buyers of off-the-plan apartments are unable to obtain finance. This could lead to an increase in settlement failures, further price falls and even tighter financing conditions for developers. However, to date, in our liaison with developers, few have reported much evidence of this.
While not directly related to the housing measures, there has been some tightening in credit for developers of residential property. This reflects lenders' reducing their desired exposure to dwelling construction, which is higher-risk lending, particularly given the longer planning and construction lags of higher density dwelling construction. That is, banks are less willing to lend given the fall in prices. To the extent that the housing policy measures have contributed to the decline in investor demand and prices, they have indirectly affected developers' access to finance. There is a risk that this process overshoots leading to a sharper or more protracted decline in activity than we currently expect.
The effect of a tightening in lending to developers seems to me to be a higher risk to the economic outlook than the direct effect of the tighter lending standards on households, which has ameliorated risk. Relatedly, there may also be a bigger impact on lending to small business given the extensive use of property as collateral for small business loans. This would be further exacerbated if the banks' risk appetite for small business lending declines for other reasons.
Housing prices have fallen by almost 5 per cent from their late 2017 peak while the pace of housing credit growth has slowed over the past couple of years. The fall in housing prices is a combination of a number of other factors, including the very large increase in the supply of houses and apartments both now and in prospect. It also reflects a reduction in foreign demand, which has been affected by a tightening in the ability to shift money out of China and an increase in stamp duty in some states.
Some have attributed the slowing in housing credit solely to a tightening in the supply by banks in response to regulatory actions. Others have suggested there has been a weakening in housing demand and so demand for credit, including because of the high level of and weaker outlook for housing prices. To me, reductions in both the demand and supply of credit have been at play and it is hard to separate their effects. For example, tighter lending conditions have reduced how much some people can borrow, and this contributed to weaker demand for properties and so softer prices. Price falls have themselves contributed to weaker demand by investors who are no longer confident of rising values. Assessing the relative importance of demand and supply is also complicated by the fact that banks have cut back most on their lending to less credit-worthy borrowers, but have more aggressively targeted safer borrowers with lower interest rates.
Conclusion
The regulatory measures have significantly reduced the riskiness of new housing lending. A smaller share of new loans are to investors, are interest-only, have high LVRs or are to borrowers more likely to have difficulty repaying the loan. But it takes time for the riskiness of the stock of outstanding loans to improve. When you implement a change in lending standards the existing loans are no different to how they were the day before. But over time a larger share of outstanding loans will have been written with more stringent lending standards, while the larger share of principal and interest loans will see more of the outstanding loans have a declining balance over time. Finally, in assessing the overall riskiness of the debt both before and after the various measures, it is worth remembering that arrears rates remain low.
To conclude, the available evidence suggests that the policies have meaningfully reduced vulnerabilities associated with riskier household lending and so increased the resilience of the economy to future shocks.
Guy Debelle is Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. He is Deputy Chair of the Reserve Bank Board and Chair of the Reserve Bank's Risk Management Committee.
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Assessing the effects of housing lending policy measures: RBA's Guy Debelle

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NAB's housing lending revenue has dropped for a second year in a row, and shareholders have seen their dividends drop.
The bank, still feeling the pinch from the banking royal commission, has slashed its dividends by 16 percent, from an unsustainable 99 cents a share to 83 cents.
NAB posted $2.7 billion profits, 4.3 percent up from the same period a year ago.
NAB chief executive Philip Chronican said in a statement that the decision to cut the dividend was difficult.
"We have to trade off the fact that our shareholders really rely on that dividend for income, but we need to also make sure that we've got a strong bank," Chronican said.
NAB's housing lending revenue is now $250 million less than it was in September 2017, when the national housing market began its downturn.
It is around $200 million less than this time last year, with steadily declines over the last four half yearly result announcements.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/2/NAB-lending.jpg" alt="">
The bank have however managed to reduce their interest only loan book, but it still sits at a relatively high 26.5 percent.
There was a spike in the second half of 2017, where $9.2 billion of interest only loans were converted to principal and interest.
In the first half of 2019 there were $7.9 billion of IO loans moved to P&amp;I.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/2/IO-conversions.jpg" alt="">
Of the 26.5 percent, eight percent are owner-occupier interest only loans, with 18.5% made up of investor interest only loans.
Over half of their loan book is made up of owner occupier principal and interest loans.
It was reported yesterday <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/98053-anz-s-home-loan-portfolio-shows-big-drop-in-interest-only-loan-borrowers" target="_blank">ANZ only have 18%</a> of their loans as interest only.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/2/IO-Loan.jpg" alt="">
In April NAB introduced a debt-to-income decline threshold of 9x.
Three percent of NAB's portfolio now has dynamic LVR over three percent.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/2/NAB-LVR.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/2/NAB-LVR.jpg" alt="">
 
 
 
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NAB housing lending revenue continues to drop, and shareholders pay the price

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EXPERT OBSERVER
APRA’s property exposures data is published each quarter and provides a summary of lending by ADIs over the quarter.  The data is valuable because it gives much more insight into new lending than what is available from the monthly housing finance data, which is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Change%20in%20value%20of%20new%20mortgage%20lending%20approvals.PNG" alt="Annual Change in value of new mortgage lending approvals.PNG" width="998" height="365" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="62db70a1-0572-49d6-84c7-813f3dd4a92f" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Change%20in%20value%20of%20new%20mortgage%20lending%20approvals.PNG">
 The latest data showed that the value of lending to owner-occupiers was 9.3% higher in the June 2019 quarter than the March 2019 quarter and for investors it was 13.8% higher.  Despite the quarterly increase, the value of lending to owner-occupiers was -14.4% lower year-on-year and for investors it was -17.5% lower.  As the first chart highlights there has been a steady decline in housing lending demand over recent years however, the latest quarter suggests the flow of housing credit may have reached a turning point. One of the features of the market over recent years has been the reduction in new lending on interest-only terms.  Like overall lending, interest-only lending was actually 17.0% higher over the June quarter however, it was -19.6% lower year-on-year.  Interest-only mortgages made-up just 15.8% of new mortgages over the quarter, which was slightly higher than the recent low of 14.9%, but much lower than the decade average of 32.5%.  The reduction in interest-only lending has been driven by much higher mortgage rates for this product.  In fact, if you look at the total outstanding portfolio of interest-only mortgages it has fallen to $359.0 billion, which is its lowest value since September 2012 and its lowest overall share of outstanding mortgages, at 21.6%, any time since March 2008.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20for%20interest-only%20purposes.PNG" alt="Value and share of total new lending for interest-only purposes.PNG" width="1033" height="378" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b4786622-79bb-45e2-ad19-fa2b95a9551b" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20for%20interest-only%20purposes.PNG">
 Looking at other types of non-standard lending, over the quarter low-documentation loan approvals increased 33.6%, loans approved outside serviceability increased 4.1% and other non-standard loan approvals fell -21.7%.   Year-on-year, the changes were recorded at -52.8% for low-documentation loan approvals, -36.6% for loans approved outside of serviceability and -42.2% for other non-standard loans.  Low documentation loans were just 0.1% of the value of loans approved over the quarter while loans approved outside of serviceability were 4.0% (their lowest share since December 2017) while other non-standard loans were also just 0.1%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Quarterly%20new%20lending%20by%20loan%20types.PNG" alt="Quarterly new lending by loan types.PNG" width="1040" height="394" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0c10c8f9-a868-4b35-8664-a5ba5c47ca51" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Quarterly%20new%20lending%20by%20loan%20types.PNG">
 The latest data shows an uptick in high loan to valuation ratio (LVR) lending however, it remains well below historic levels.  Lending with an LVR greater than 80% means that the borrowers will typically have to take out lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI).  Over the quarter, there was $17.9 billion worth of mortgages written with an LVR greater than 80%, which was 22.4% of all commitments over the quarter.  The 22.4% share was the highest since December 2015 but remains well below its peak of 37.6% in March 2009.  
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20with%20LVR.PNG" alt="Value and share of total new lending with LVR.PNG" width="991" height="357" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58936e33-9672-4d5b-9568-a622e834b8ba" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20with%20LVR.PNG">
 Overall, the data from APRA shows that riskier lending; those loans with a high LVR, interest-only or non-standard mortgages remain a low proportion of new mortgages that are being written.  In saying that, there seems to have been a slight increase in the risk appetite over recent quarters and with macroprudential policies eased further during recent months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a further moderate increase in demand for non-standard and higher LVR mortgages over the coming quarters.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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