Growth Forecast

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GUEST OBSERVER
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The Index has now been in negative territory for the last 12 months and continues to point to below trend growth in the economy throughout 2016. 
With trend growth generally assessed as 2.75percent for Australia the Index is sending a more negative signal than both Westpac and official forecasts.
The Reserve Bank recently released its revised growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and retained the forecasts from its February Statement on Monetary Policy at 3percent for through the year growth in both 2016 and 2017. On the other hand, the Government was a little more circumspect , broadly consistent with the signals from the Leading Index and forecasting year average growth in both 2015/16 and 2016/17 at 2.5 percent. 
Arguably, the recent sharp deterioration in the growth rate of the Leading Index (five consecutive months where the growth rate is more than 1 percentage point below trend) is likely to be pointing to a more serious below trend growth performance in 2016/17 than indicated even by the government.
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Westpac is more optimistic than the Government with forecasts of 2.9percent (2015/16) and 2.7percent (2016/17) although slightly less optimistic than the Reserve Bank with forecast growth rates of 2.8percent (through the year) in both 2016 and 2017.
To test what is driving the Leading Index to produce a more downbeat outlook than the official forecasters and Westpac it is helpful to consider the contributions to the growth rate from the various components of the Leading Index. International factors dominate with US industrial production (–0.46 percentage points) and Commodity Prices (RBA Index) (–0.31 percentage points) contributing 0.77 percentage points of the 1.08 percentage point deviation below trend.
Perhaps the official forecasters and Westpac are underestimating the importance of these international influences on Australia’s growth prospects.
Another “test” of the signals from the Index is to track the contribution to the growth rate of the Index from its components over the course of the last six months. Over that period the growth rate of the Index fell from 0.5 percentage points below trend to 1.08 percentage points below trend.
The main contributors to the fall in the growth rate were: aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.37 percentage points) Westpac MI Unemployment Expectations Index (–0.10 percentage points); Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Expectations Index
(–0.12 percentage points); US Industrial Production (–0.19 percentage points); yield spread (–0.7 percentage points); RBA commodity prices Index (–0.06 percentage points); and dwelling approvals (–0.04 percentage points). Partially offsetting this fall was a less negative contribution of 0.36 percentage points from the ASX 200.
An overall conclusion from this analysis is that international factors have generally been the source of the underperformance of the Index but in recent months a deterioration in components associated with the labour market have contributed to further weakness.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on June 7. We were surprised that the Board decided to cut the cash rate by 0.25percent at its meeting in May. We underestimated the degree to which the staff lowered its inflation forecasts in the wake of the March quarter Inflation Report. On the basis of that Report the Bank lowered its underlying inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017 from 2.5percent and 2.5percent respectively to 1.5percent and 2.0percent even after allowing for the rate cut. Presented with those forecast changes the Board would have had little choice but to take some action.
We expect that further action will be required at the August meeting once more information about the inflation outlook is available following the release of the June quarter Inflation Report. Indeed the Bank’s current forecasts for inflation take into account the May rate cut and market pricing which, at the time, assumed a further cut. With the 2017 forecast for underlying inflation barely reaching the bottom of the target zone (2–3percent) it is likely that a follow up move will be required.
However we do not expect that move as early as June. It will be prudent to test the current forecasts with the benefit of the June Inflation Report which will not be available until late July.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Leading Index still weak: Westpac's Bill Evans

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

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NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

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They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

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NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



Joel Robinson

NAB raises dwelling price forecast for 2021 and 2022

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

BIS Shrapnel's 2019 forecast region by region

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Australia’s housing market will likely record moderated dwelling price rises in 2018, with Melbourne again being the top mainland performer, according to SQM housing expert Louis Christopher in his end of year review.
In 2018, Mr Christopher expects national house prices to rise between four and eight percent.
It will be led on the mainland by Melbourne with a gain of seven to 12 per cent.
Hobart will be even stronger at eight to 13 per cent.
SQM tips Canberra will show five to nine per cent price growth.
 Sydney house prices are forecast to rise four to eight per cent. 
Perth will tick over into mildly positive territory, with small gains tipped in Adelaide and Brisbane.
His SQM tips are unamended from his full October annual report.
His tips of between 4 percent to 8 percent in 2018 represent a fall from a growth rate of what has been around 4.2 percent national growth over the past 12 months with a national median price of $549,000, well below the 5.8 percent rise in values in 2016 and 9.2 percent gain in 2015.
Melbourne’s property market will lose some momentum, according to predictions in Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report. 
Offsetting a slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney will be first-year property market recoveries for Perth and Darwin and the ongoing boom in Hobart’s property market, which is set to record the highest level of price growth of any capital city at between 8 percent to 13 percent, Christopher said.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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SQM Research tipped 2017 capital city house price growth to have been between six to 12 per cent - with Corelogic daily index showing a 4 percent rise across its five capital city index for 2017.
The SQM Research boss acknowledges his 2017 forecast for Sydney house prices to surge 11 to 16 per cent was an over-estimate, according to The Australian Financial Review, given APRA moved earlier that Christopher anticipated.
"The Sydney market was picking steam earlier this year. But APRA acted earlier than we forecasted. Our forecast assumed they would step in the market sometime in the third quarter," he said.
Christopher acknowledged the APRA move was "prudent."
"At the end of the year the market was flat with a number of areas recording some price falls," <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://vimeo.com/247084937" target="_blank">he told a Harris Partners Talking property vimeo</a>.
It was March when the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced all deposit-taking institutions were to cut back on origination of interest-only loans to a maximum 30 per cent of total lending.
"Sydney was an overvalued market to begin with so was more susceptible," Christopher advised as to why Sydney bore the brunt of the turndown.
SQM's 2017 Boom and Bust Report scenario forecasted an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11 percent to 16 percent for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne was forecasted to rise by 10 percent to 15 percent.  
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<div>The forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA until late 2017. </div>
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<div>"I think the odds are reasonably high that APRA is going to remain relatively quiet over the course of 2018, and indeed we are aware the banks are now under the required threshold set by APRA for investor credit growth and interest only loans, so the banks actually have a buffer to expand their lending book next year," Christopher said last month.</div>
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<div>"We are a little bit more positive than perhaps some analysts for Sydney (in 2018)," Christopher affirmed.</div>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

House price growth forecast for 2018 across Australia: SQM

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Australia is set to ride the global growth wave.
 We forecast above-trend (and above-consensus) growth of 3.2% in 2018.
An improving business sector and tightening labour market should lift wages growth, supporting household spending.
We expect the RBA to start lifting its cash rate around mid- 2018 and see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018.
Hangin’ ten on a global wave 
A wave of global growth is gaining momentum and should support Australia’s economy in a number of ways. First, commodity prices have lifted, boosting national incomes, corporate profitability, and tax revenues. Second, rising global demand is supporting demand for exports of energy commodities, high-quality food products, and tourism and education. Finally, the lift in global optimism is supporting a pick-up in business conditions, driving rising local investment and hiring. 
We expect GDP growth to pick up from 2.4% in 2017 to 3.2% in 2018 (consensus is 2.8%). This outlook is underpinned by HSBC’s above-consensus China growth forecast (6.7% versus 6.4%) and our view that the lift in local business conditions will continue to support hiring, which, as it tightens the labour market, should drive a pick-up in wage growth. The lift in wage and jobs growth is expected to support stronger growth in household incomes, consumer spending, and tax revenues. 
Although Australia’s housing construction boom is coming to its end, we expect the drag to be more than offset by a stabilisation in mining investment (after significant declines in previous years), a pick-up in investment in urban infrastructure, and by rising business investment. Overall, investment is set to rise solidly in 2018. 
We see house price growth slowing in 2018, after a five-year boom. However, we do not expect significant price falls, as the market is supported by strong population growth, some expected loosening of prudential settings, and mortgage rates that are still historically low (despite our view that they will edge higher in 2018). 
The clearest signs of improvement in the economy are in the labour market. Jobs growth has been strong and the timely indicators suggest continued solid momentum. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to a ‘full employment’ level in 2018, supporting a pick-up in wages growth. We also expect growth in 2018 to be the most broad-based across regions and industries in more than a decade, which should see increased demand for skills across a wide range of areas, supporting wages growth. 
We expect the RBA to lift its cash rate in 2018, with a first hike pencilled in for Q2. With hikes expected, we see the AUD rising to US84 cents in 2018. 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC.  
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Australia in 2018 : Surfs up! Cash rate too! Riding the global growth wave

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There seems to be no stopping the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, with strong growth forecasts for 2020 emerging off the back of the near two year downturn.
NAB have forecast house values in the two major capital city markets to rise 7.4 per cent in 2020.
"We have revised up our expectations for residential property prices," NAB chief economist Alan Oster advised.
"Prices have risen relatively sharply over the past 3 months after bottoming in April - led by gains in Sydney and Melbourne.
"Overall, we now expect the CoreLogic 8-Capital City house price index to be down around -0.6% in 2019, but to return to positive reads in Melbourne and Sydney.
"We expect prices to continue to rise at a moderate pace in 2020, lifting by 4.5% over the year.
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NAB said they changed their forecast given the "significant adjustment" in prices on the east coast since mid-2017 after 15 per cent and 11 per cent peak to trough declines in Melbourne and Sydney.
"Despite these declines being relatively large, the adjustment appears to have occurred in an orderly manner following earlier prudential tightening and waning of domestic and foreign investor demand," NAB said.
"These adjustments also followed a period of exceptional growth, with Sydney prices having increased by over 70% in the 5 years prior to the downturn, while Melbourne prices were up over 50%."
NAB believe market activity will remain weak despite the stabilisation in prices.
"Dwelling investment is expected to decline relatively sharply over the next few quarters - though from a high base.
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"While the pipeline of work to be done remains high, it is likely this will be quickly eroded with high rates of work done. 
"Building approvals have continued to trend down, suggesting little replenishment to the flow of new work."
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The NAB Residential Property Index <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/105651-nab-residential-property-index-ticks-into-positive-for-first-time-since-mid-2018" target="_blank">has moved back into positive territory</a> for the first time since mid-2018, reflecting the uptick in market activity in recent months.
NAB has <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/105652-melbourne-apartments-to-outperform-sydney-in-2020-nab" target="_blank">forecast stronger growth in Melbourne apartments in 2020</a> compared to Sydney.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney and Melbourne house values to rise over seven percent in 2020: NAB

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Brisbane dwelling prices will outperform those in Sydney and Melbourne in 2020, according to Westpac.
They believe the Queensland capital will see eight per cent increases next year, above the six forecasted for the two major capital city markets.
Westpac suggest the strong momentum in Sydney and Melbourne will fade as affordability issues re-emerge and population slows.
Brisbane is well positioned due to its affordability and population inflows.
 "Momentum heading into 2020 is clearly positive, albeit uneven across markets," Westpac advised.
They said in the near term, the main guidance comes from current price momentum, auction markets, listings and their buyer sentiment measures.
"Nationally, these are all showing positive prospects for early 2020 with price growth accelerating, auction clearance rates riding high in Sydney and Melbourne, listings showing a clear tightening and a positive pulse from buyer sentiment pointing to a further lift in demand.
"The cyclical momentum is strongest in Sydney and Melbourne but is also showing a notable pick up in Brisbane. Adelaide and Hobart are seeing a more muted lift with Perth yet to pull out of its multi year price decline.
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They predict a number of factors to shape residential property over 2020.
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<div class="column">"The first is policy - we expect the RBA to cut rates by another 25bps at its February meeting and to turn to so-called unconventional policy measures to provide additional stimulus," Westpac advise.</div>
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<div class="column">The second factor is supply, both in the form of sellers returning to the market and the physical supply of new dwellings. New listings fell to extreme lows in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our analysis suggests the listing cycle tends to follow the sales cycle by about six months. A likely lift in new listings will test the depth of demand in the first half of 2020. The supply of newly built dwellings will also remain elevated. Completions eased back from a record 218k in 2018 to an estimated 205k in 2019.</div>
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<div class="column">"Our projections have this easing to around 175k in 2020, still well above average pre-boom levels with about 50k of that high rise dwellings. New supply could prove difficult to absorb and will weigh on prices and rents in some segments – Sydney’s rental vacancy rate and Melbourne’s stock of unsold units being key areas to watch.</div>
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<div class="column">Westpac believe would-be buyers in Sydney and Melbourne will be priced out of the markets and will seek more affordable markets if the current price resurgence continues, which will slow growth.</div>
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<div class="column">"As 2020 unfolds we expect another dynamic to come to the fore around affordability and population flows.</div>
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<div class="column">"Despite the price correction in 2017-18 and a further lowering in interest rates, affordability remains relatively stretched in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
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<div class="column">"The resurgence in prices see these markets run into the same affordability constraints that emerged in 2016-17 as prices near previous peaks.</div>
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<div class="column">"Investor activity will lift as low deposit rates and equity volatility drive more interest in real estate but funding is likely to remain a constraint on investors."</div>
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Brisbane to outshine Sydney and Melbourne dwelling prices in 2020: Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In 2020, there will be several political and economic factors that will continue to impact Sydney’s property market. 
Douglas reveals his 12 property market forecasts for 2020:
1.       Property owners will continue to sit on their hands. Listings will continue to be at relatively low levels as a significant proportion of property owners will wait and ‘time the market’ until they are certain prices have peaked again. For this reason, Sydney property buyers might be rewarded with more stock at the end of 2020. Once this happens, prices will creep closer to their early 2017 levels – though won’t quite reach them.
2.       A stampede of first home buyers in January. The landscape in 2020 is set to change again for first home buyers: further financial stimulus will be introduced to assist them, with the Morrison Government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme commencing on 1 January. While I stand by my argument that this was a pre-election gimmick by the Coalition Government to win votes, it will undoubtedly lead to an immediate stampede of first home buyer numbers in the first few weeks of next year. This is a ‘first-in, best-dressed’ scenario, so I won’t be surprised to see first home buyer numbers slow once these spots are filled.
3.       Property prices to increase 5-10 per cent. With relatively low property stock continuing alongside increased buyer interest, house prices will rise between five and 10 per cent next year, depending on the suburb – if the political and economic environment remains stable. Only in August, CoreLogic reported that the number of properties listed for sale were at their lowest levels since 2010. Price rises might exceed 10 per cent if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates again – as some are currently forecasting for the near future. Finally, as the banks now have their lending restrictions in place, I’m not expecting the bank regulator APRA to intervene in the short-to-medium term.
4.       Average days on market to fall. The imbalance between supply (low) and demand (high) will lead to shorter property marketing campaigns in 2020. Already in Sydney, the median days on market has shortened by seven days between August and September this year and will continue to fall.<a href="x-webdoc://23020B94-EAC9-488D-8186-41D6232A311B#_ftn2" title=""> </a>
5.       Build quality to remain in the spotlight. Last year’s Opal Tower crisis and this year’s Mascot Towers event has heightened the spotlight on build quality. This will continue in 2020, as the State Government begins to implement the first tranche of its building reforms. But as these reforms will only apply to buildings yet to be constructed, the problem of build quality will continue to make headlines. The rush to get apartments built and sold in the housing boom meant shortcuts may have been taken. Although there are rogue developers who do cut corners, more often than not, the vast majority are reputable and are being compliant. The problem is we’re chastising them, when maybe we should be looking more closely at building regulations. There are significant changes ahead to increase compliance and enforcement in the building and construction industry and, I predict, even talks of a possible royal commission in 2020.
6.       Houses will continue shrinking. Australians used to have some of the biggest free-standing houses in the world, but now they are starting to shrink: the average size of a new house built in Australia was 228.8m² in 2018-19, down from 231.8m² in 2017-18 – which is the smallest since 2001-02. Sydney’s geographic limitations allow it to expand north-west and south-west only, meaning homes will become smaller in an effort to house more dwellings. Practicality has also crept in. As a nation, we’re not cooking as much as we once were, and so the sizes of our kitchens are also getting smaller. With apps like Deliveroo and UberEATS at our fingertips, the focus is much less on cooking than it is on convenience.   
7.       Developers will start to create homes suited to specific demographics, opposed to the cookie-cutter approach of the investor boom. With apartments accounting for roughly one-third of all new dwellings approved for construction in Australia from 2014 to 2018, it’s no surprise that developers mastered a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. It was easy for them to market off-the-plan properties months before building work commenced and keep them as fuss-free as possible; mainly 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, ‘no frills’ units.With many more millennials and downsizers entering the market, however, more developers have realised that they must adopt new configurations to suit the needs of a changing demographic. Downsizers, for example, are seeking terrace houses or single-story villas that offer low-maintenance lifestyles.
8.       Australians re-mortgaging in record numbers. Many Sydney mortgagees will take advantage of the low interest rate environment in 2020. With the lending environment becoming more competitive, and borrowers more open to smaller lenders, we’ll also see more mortgagees shopping around and switching lenders to secure a better rate. Even a quarter of a percent saving on a mortgage rate can equate to thousands of dollars over the life cycle of a loan. As always, I recommend mortgage holders speak to an independent broker, as they have full access to the market and are impartial.
9.       Exurbs will grow around Sydney. Exurbs are prosperous areas outside, or on the fringe of, a city’s metropolitan area. They are fairly self-sufficient population ecosystems in their own right and have good infrastructure and amenities. In Greater Western Sydney, these are areas such as Box Hill in the north west and Oran Park and Menangle in the south west. I’m expecting a greater number of exurbs around Sydney, and existing exurbs to enjoy continued growth.
10.   More landlords considering multiple occupation. A house in multiple occupation (HMO), or a house of multiple occupancy, is a UK-coined term that describes residential properties where ‘common areas’ exist and are shared by more than three people not from the one household (for example, a family) – and it’s an emerging trend here in Australia. In areas of Sydney, particularly around its universities, more young people are choosing to live in such a manner and I’m seeing landlords looking to adapt their properties for this purpose. This requires them to comply with additional regulations for the management and health and safety of the property and its occupants.
11.   British and Hong Kong residents will look to invest here because of political volatility and the weak Australian dollar. In light of Brexit and Hong Kong’s political crisis and a weak Australian dollar, a proportion of anti-Brexiteers and Hong Kong residents will look to the Australian property market as a safehaven. However, China’s Supreme Court this year introduced strict penalties for its citizens transferring money out of the country to buy property overseas, so unless Hong Kong residents are incredibly ‘creative’ they will face barriers to investing in property here.
12.   Stamp duty to be reviewed. Stamp duty is a cash cow for the NSW Government: In the 2016-17 financial year, it generated them a whopping $8 billion. However, as a result of the recent property market slump, the NSW Treasury has since suffered a fall in stamp duty revenue – revenue was $7.4 billion in 2018-19 and $6.9 billion in 2019-20.<a href="x-webdoc://23020B94-EAC9-488D-8186-41D6232A311B#_ftn7" title="">[7]</a> With property stock levels predicted to remain low next year, it’s in the interests of the State Government to conduct a full review of its stamp duty model, and I predict these conversations will play a key role in State politics in 2020.
Douglas Driscoll is CEO of real estate group Starr<a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/"> </a>Partners.
 
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Sydney property market predictions for 2020: Doug Driscoll

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The quick turnaround in the housing market looks to be more prolonged than many forecast according to new research from SQM Research.
In the new 'Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020', Melbourne house markets could climb up to 15 per cent.
The report offers four scenarios that could play out over 2020, with the base case the most likely.
Should the cash rate remain at 0.75 per cent and there be a recovery in the economy, as well as no intervention from APRA until late 2020, then house prices in Melbourne will return to the peaks of late 2017.
Sydney gains are likely to be slightly more modest, with <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/106543-sydney-house-prices-could-jump-14-per-cent-in-2020-sqm-research" target="_blank">gains forecast up to 14 per cent</a>.
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“The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have recorded a sharp turnaround in the 2nd half of 2019 following on from the surprise result of the Federal Election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates," SQM Research boss Louis Christopher says.
"These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020. In a close call, APRA is expected to not immediately intervene despite the strong price rises."
Christopher notes however he has some misgivings on the sustainability of the new recovery.
"Sydney and Melbourne are rising from an overvalued point. Long term, our two largest housing markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit. Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high.
"Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane”, said Christopher.
Nationally SQM believe dwellings will rise between seven per cent and 11 per cent.
At the most unlikely end of the scale, scenario four, if rates were cut to 0 and quantitative easing begins, then house prices in Sydney and Melbourne could be flat, or see marginal gains.
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Melbourne house prices tipped to rise by up to 15 per cent: SQM Research

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Commonwealth Bank have updated their forecast for the 2020 dwelling markets on the back of the resurgence over the last few months.
They now expect national dwelling prices to grow six per cent in 2020.
CBA senior economist Gareth Aird has called the rebound in demand "phenomenal."
"Back in July we updated out dwelling price forecasts and extended the profile to end-2020," CBA senior economist Gareth Aird said.
He noted however that they only expect modest price rises over H2 2019 and 2020.
"We flagged that the risks to our forecast profile were to the upside, but a V-shaped recovery was not our central scenario," Aird added.
Commonwealth Bank expect Sydney and Melbourne to drive the national forecast, each to be up seven and eight per cent.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/15/CBA%20Forecasts.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/15/CBA%20Forecasts.jpg" alt=""> 
Brisbane and Canberra will follow with four per cent gains, with Adelaide and Hobart house prices to grow three per cent.
There's finally good news for Perth and Darwin.
After major losses, the two strong mining capitals aren't expected to see declines in 2020. Perth is forecast to see 2.5 per cent growth, while Darwin will remain flat.
National dwelling prices have risen 3.7 per cent since bottoming out in June, however they still remain seven per cent below the September 2017 peak.
Aird says there are two key downside risks to their view on property prices.
"First, the reintroduction of macro-prudential measures to slow the growth in lending," Aird stated.
"Measurers introduced a few years ago to slow both the rate of growth in lending to investors and rate of growth in interest-only lending were successful in slow dwelling price appreciation.
"Second, a lift in the national unemployment rate above 5.5 per cent would likely result in dwelling prices not lifting as much as we expect."
Aird also cited two key upside risks to CBA's forecasts, the first being if there is another cut in the official cash rate.
"We expect one further 25bp cut to the cast rate in Q1 2020 which should result in a further reduction in mortgage rates," Aird said.
"But any move to UMP (unconventional monetary policy) that results in mortgage rates moving lower than we expect would likely result in dwelling prices inflating by more than we anticipate.
Aird added that if there were to be any further policy changes to boost housing demand such as first home owner grants or lower stamp duty, to domestic or foreign buyers, then prices could go higher than the forecast.
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