Fire

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<p>California is <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/12/us/california-fires/index" target="_blank">burning</a> – a sentence we’ve heard far too often this year. Sydney is currently on <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/fire-weather-warning-issued-as-sydney-braces-for-42c/news-story/5406ccff2b5a585cd823cf0cf6908822" target="_blank">bushfire alert</a>, as firefighters battle a fire in the Hunter Valley region and temperatures are set to top 40℃.</p>
<p>A cocktail of factors, from climate change to centuries of ignoring indigenous burning practises, means that catastrophic fires are likely to become more common.</p>
<p>One of Australia’s favourite fire prevention measures is prescribed burning – using carefully controlled fires to clear out flammable materials. We’re almost obsessed with it. Indeed, it seems the outcome of every major inquiry is that we need to do more of it.</p>
<p>The Royal Commission inquiry that followed Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday fires <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report" target="_blank">recommended</a> that 5% of all public land in Victoria be treated per year – a doctrine that was subsequently dropped due to impracticality.</p>
<p>Yet our research, published <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17061" target="_blank">today</a> in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, modelled thousands of fires in Tasmania and found that nearly a third of the state would have to be burned to effectively lower the risk of bushfires.</p>
<p>The question of how much to burn and where is a puzzle we must solve, especially given the inherent risk, issues caused by smoke <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2016/205/9/rapid-assessment-impact-hazard-reduction-burning-around-sydney-may-2016?inline=true" target="_blank">smoke</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/James_Ricketts/publication/252471836_Climate_Change_Impacts_on_Fire-Weather_in_South-East_Australia/links/54a86d870cf257a6360bdfea/Climate-Change-Impacts-on-Fire-Weather-in-South-East-Australia.pdf" target="_blank">shrinking</a> weather windows for safe burning due to climate change.</p>
<h2>Why use computer simulations?</h2>
<p>The major problem fire science faces is gathering data. Landscape-scale experiments involving extreme fire are rare, for obvious reasons of risk and cost. When a major bushfire happens, all the resources go into putting it out and protecting people. Nobody has the time to painstakingly collect data on how fast it is moving and what it is burning. We are therefore restricted to a few limited data sources to reconstruct the behaviour and impact of fire: we can analyse the <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF05051">scar</a> on the landscape after a fire, look at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">case studies</a>, or run <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712001752" target="_blank">simulations of computer models</a>.</p>
<p>Most research on the effectiveness of prescribed burning has been at a local scale. We need to start thinking bigger: how can we mitigate the effect of multiple large fires in a region like Tasmania or Southeastern Australia? What is the cumulative effect of different prescribed burning strategies?</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199366/original/file-20171215-26014-ff04t4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="caption">A large fuel reduction burn off on Hobart’s eastern shore.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/babomike/8889414172/" target="_blank">Flickr/Mike Rowe</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC</a></span></p>
<p>To answer these questions, we create models using mathematical equations to simulate the behaviour of fires across actual landscapes. These models include the effects of vegetation type, terrain and fuel loads, under specific weather conditions. If we simulate thousands of these fires we can get an idea of where fire risk is the highest, and how effective prescribed burning is at reducing that risk.</p>
<p>The island of Tasmania offers the perfect study system. Self-contained, with a wide array of vegetation types and fire regimes, it offers an ideal opportunity to see how fire behaves across a diverse landscape. Perhaps more interestingly, the island contains large areas of flammable landscape surrounding <a href="http://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/CTEE/Council/Submissions/ET%202.31.pdf" target="_blank">globally unique</a> ecosystems and numerous towns and villages. Obviously, we cannot set fire to all of Tasmania in real life, but computer simulations make it possible!</p>
<p>So, encouraged by the Tasmanian Fire Service, who initiated our research, we simulated tens of thousands of fires across Tasmania under a range of prescribed burning scenarios.</p>
<h2>Prescribed fire can be effective, in theory</h2>
<p>The first scenario we looked at was the best-case scenario: what happens if we perform prescribed burning on all the vegetation that can handle it, given theoretically unlimited resources? It is possible this approximates the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01426390701767278" target="_blank">sustained and skillful burning</a> by Tasmanian Aboriginal peoples.</p>
<p>Wildfire simulations following this scenario suggested that such an approach would be extremely effective. Importantly, we saw significant reductions in fire activity even in areas where prescribed burning is impossible (for example, due to the presence of people).</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this best-case approach, while interesting from a theoretical perspective, would require prescribed burning over more than 30% of Tasmania in one year.</p>
<p>We also analysed the effects of 12 more realistic scenarios. These realistic plans were less than half as efficient as the best-case scenario at reducing fire activity.</p>
<p>On average, 3 hectares of prescribed burning would reduce wildfire extent by roughly 1ha in grasslands and dry forests.</p>
<p>In other flammable Tasmanian vegetation types like buttongrass sedgelands and heathlands, the reduction in wildfire was even smaller. This is obviously better than no prescribed burning, but it highlights the fact that this is a relatively inefficient tool, and given the costs and potential drawbacks, should be used only where it is most needed.</p>
<p>This is a fundamental conundrum of prescribed burning: though it is quite effective in theory, the extent to which we would need to implement it to affect fire behaviour across the entire state is completely unachievable.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is imperative that we not just blindly burn a pre-ordained fraction of the landscape. Rather, we must carefully design localised prescribed burning interventions to reduce risk to communities.</p>
<h2>We need a multi-tool approach</h2>
<p>Our study has shown that while prescribed burning can be quite effective in certain scenarios, it has serious constraints. Additionally, while we analysed these scenarios under bad fire weather, we were not able to analyse the kind of catastrophic days in which the effect of prescribed burning is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479713006531" target="_blank">seriously reduced</a>, with howling dry winds and stupefying heat.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, due to climate change, we are going to see a lot more catastrophic days in the future in <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF13126" target="_blank">Tasmania</a> and indeed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-016-0058" target="_blank">globally</a>.</p>
<p>In Hobart this is of particular concern, as the city is surrounded by tall, wet eucalypt forests that have had fifty years grow dense understoreys since the 1967 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/tasmanias-1967-black-tuesday-bushfires-explained/8241698" target="_blank">Black Tuesday</a> fires. These have the potential to cause some of the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112799000663#BIB16">most intense</a> fires on the planet should conditions get dry enough. Prescribed burning is impossible in these forests.</p>
<p>To combat fire risk we must take a multi-pronged approach that includes innovative strategies, such as designing new <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr292/2001_finney.pdf" target="_blank">spatial patterns</a> for prescribed burning, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049158.2017.1311200" target="_blank">manually removing</a> fuels from areas in which prescribed burning is not possible, <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2017/H10/sharples3.pdf" target="_blank">improving the standards</a> for buildings and defensible spaces, and most importantly, engaging the community in all of this.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89167/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Only by attacking this problem from multiple angles, and through close collaboration with the community and all levels of government, can we effectively face our fiery future.</p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-furlaud-430100" target="_blank">James Furlaud</a>, PhD Student in Fire Ecology, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397" target="_blank">David Bowman</a>, Professor, Environmental Change Biology, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-fight-the-catastrophic-fires-of-the-future-we-need-to-look-beyond-prescribed-burning-89167" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

To fight the catastrophic fires we need to look beyond prescribed burning

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<p>The builder behind Melbourne’s Lacrosse apartment towers which caught fire in 2014 has agreed to replace the combustible cladding on the tower.</p>
<p>It comes as Melbourne authorities move to undertake an audit of some 1400 buildings.</p>
<p>Up to 1400 Victorian buildings could have potentially dangerous panelling according to the Victorian Cladding Taskforce, chaired by former premier Ted Baillieu and former deputy premier John Thwaites.</p>
<p>It was created in July after the Grenfell fire.</p>
<p>The interim report into the extent of non-compliant cladding across Victoria concluded there had been a culture of non-compliance throughout the building sector that has meant combustible cladding has become a widespread material used on multi-storey buildings.</p>
<p>"This culture has to change," Prof Thwaites said in a statement.</p>
<p>It found that around 1400 non-government buildings most likely have aluminium composite panels with a polyethylene core or expanded polystyrene panels, but need inspecting to confirm the materials are present.</p>
<p>"Cladding is much more complicated and widespread than we first thought," Planning Minister Richard Wynne said.</p>
<p>Wynne said the Victorian Building Authority would have to "lift their game."</p>
<p>He allocated $5 million for a statewide audit, while adding all of the buildings would be safe to occupy.</p>
<p>The aim is to inspect 10 per cent of buildings each calendar year, up from two per cent.</p>
<p>LU Simon Builders have been involved in a legal dispute with unit owners over the damage bill to the Lacrosse building in La Trobe Street in the Docklands.</p>
<p>The fire, sparked off by a discarded cigarette, started a national debate again this year on flammable cladding after the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/71811-london-apartment-tower-fire-and-possible-issues-in-australia" target="_blank">London Grenfell tower fire</a>. </p>
<p>“(This is) so that the owners and residents are not inconvenienced any further by the lengthy legal process which is underway at the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal that will decide how the costs are to be divided up between the various parties,” a statement by the builder said which was carried by The Herald Sun.</p>
<p>“As part of the VCAT action LU Simon will in turn seek to recover the cost of the replacement works.”</p>
<p>The company expressed confidence that it could reach an agreement with the owners corporation, apartment owners and the municipal building surveyor soon, which would allow work on the replacement to commence in early 2018.</p>
<p>Fairfax Media reported that the builder LU Simon had made a scathing assessment of architect Elenberg Fraser's role on Melbourne's Lacrosse residential tower, accusing the design firm of failing to meet its contractual requirements over cladding used on the building.</p>
<p>In a 33-page expert witness report prepared for the builder – when fighting damages claims by the building owners in the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal – saw LU Simon argued Elenberg Fraser did not fulfil the terms of its contract because it did not clearly specify a cladding product for the building as required.</p>
<p>Elenberg Fraser disputed Bullen's report, saying it had been written without seeing Elenberg Fraser's own arguments.</p>
<p>"The report has been delivered early in the proceeding and before there has been any production or inspection of the large volume of documentation held by the parties in respect of the design and construction of the Lacrosse building," Elenberg Fraser's solicitor Sarah Metcalfe of Norton Rose Fulbright said.</p>
<p>"The report is based on a number of incorrect assumptions."</p>
<p>Testing found the cladding on the building to be combustible and Melbourne City Council order it to be replaced – at an estimated cost of $16 million or $40,000 per apartment.</p>
<p>Owners had been fighting to make the builder pay for replacement, but the builder had refused earlier.</p>
<p>The works were required to be completed by July 2018.</p>
<p>City of Melbourne Municipal Building Surveyor Steven Baxas welcomed the builder’s decision, and expressed the hope other builders would follow suit if their buildings had similar flammable cladding. </p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Builder agrees to replace flammable cladding on Lacrosse tower in Docklands

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div>The Great Fire of London in 1666 destroyed a third of the city leaving more than 100,000 people homeless – and prompted King Charles II to issue a proclamation limiting future construction largely to brick and stone.</div>
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<div>For hundreds of years, modern building codes around the world reinforced the king’s approach, severely limiting the use of timber, particularly in multi-storey buildings, due to fear of fire.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, in recent years, there has been a resurgence of mid-rise timber buildings in Europe and North America. In the Canadian state of British Columbia, for example, a change to the building code in 2009 allowing for taller timber buildings has seen more than 330 building projects earmarked for construction in timber – and more than 80 projects completed or under construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The resurgence has been enabled by a combination of growing awareness around the environmental and cost advantages of timber, and a willingness on the part of authorities to re-think the rules in the light of contemporary technology.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the time of the Great Fire, London did not have a fire brigade. Londoners, assisted by soldiers, had to fight the fire with buckets and fire hooks– and the most effective way to stop the spread of fire was to demolish houses and create a fire break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today, not only do we have fire brigades, we also have automatic sprinkler systems, hose reels, portable fire extinguishers, smoke alarms, fire-protective grade plasterboard and cavity barriers, intumescent seals (door seals that expand in the event of fire to block smoke and hot gases)…</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This year, the Building Code of Australia 2016 will include a Deemed-to-Satisfy (DTS) approach for timber buildings of up to 25 metres in effective height – typically eight storeys – on the proviso that a raft of safety features such as those I’ve discussed are included. Mid-rise buildings constructed in fire-protected timber – combined with sprinkler systems – can provide fire safety standards that not only equal conventional alternatives, but exceed them.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Modelling by EFT Consulting ahead of the code change suggests there would 83 per cent fewer fatalities and almost 70 per cent less property damage from fires in timber buildings conforming to the new DTS provisions, compared to conventional buildings – where no sprinklers are required.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The new provisions require: timber walls be ‘sandwiched’ between layers of fire-protective grade plasterboard of the type used in high rise commercial buildings; fire hydrants, hose reels and portable fire extinguishers similar to those for conventional buildings; fire-resisting cavity barriers e.g. mineral wool; and a fire sprinkler system.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The changes were approved by the Australian Building Codes Board technical committee that includes Engineers Australia, Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (state fire brigades), the Australian Institute of Architects, Master Builders Australia and the Housing Industry Association.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as fear of fires can be easily addressed when you look at the facts, reassurance can also be offered on other genuinely-held concerns – and enable the property domestic building industry to achieve the cost savings associated with timber, which is estimated by <a href="file:///10.0.30.2/Company%20Data/a.%20Clients/Forest%20&amp;%20Wood%20Australia/Projects/Campaign%20Code%20Change/Media/AECOM%20is%20credible%20and%20independent" target="_blank">AECOM</a> at 10-20 per cent in an Australian setting, largely because of faster build times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mid-rise timber buildings can be built on top of concrete ground floors, which, when combined with standard termite prevention measures such as barriers, traps and treatments, is sufficient to protect them; the designer of any mid-rise building – timber or not – needs to consider how to counteract a range of environmental hazards.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many people also don’t realise that mid-rise timber buildings are externally clad to protect them from water damage and extend their effective life well beyond the mandatory 50 years specified by authorities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mid-rise timber apartment buildings offer domestic builders who are prepared to innovate and upskill their teams a wonderful opportunity to reach new markets on suburban sites which may not previously have been viable, to save on costs and to build in a much more environmentally friendly manner.</div>
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<div><em>Ric Sinclair is the Managing Director of Forest &amp; Wood Products Australia, an industry group which spearheaded a two-year consultation and research process ahead of the change to the Building Code of Australia.</em></div>
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