Federal Budget

EXPERT INSIGHT

Despite overwhelmingly endorsing the general stance of the 2021 budget, only a few of the 56 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are prepared to give it top marks.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg&rsquo;s objective of <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/budget-speech-2021-22">securing Australia&rsquo;s economic recovery and building for the future</a>, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an &lsquo;A&rsquo;.

But a very large 41% awarded it either an A or a B, up from <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-do-better-top-australian-economists-award-the-budget-a-cautious-pass-148624">37%</a> in last year&rsquo;s October COVID budget.

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The economists chosen to take part in the Economic Society of Australia survey have been recognised by their peers as Australia&rsquo;s leaders in fields including macroeconomics, economic modelling, housing and budget policy.

Among them are a former head of Australia&rsquo;s prime minister&rsquo;s department, a former member of the Reserve Bank board, a former OECD director and two former frontbenchers, one from Labor and one from the Coalition.

Of the panel members who commented on the historic stance of the budget &mdash; expanding the size of the deficit <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-spends-the-bounty-to-drive-unemployment-to-new-lows-159229">beyond what it would have been</a> in order to drive down unemployment &mdash; all but three offered enthusiastic endorsement.

Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson of the University of Adelaide commended the government for at last turning its back on a &ldquo;debt and deficit&rdquo; mantra, that was &ldquo;never justified&rdquo;.

Professor Richard Holden praised the &ldquo;watershed&rdquo;. In due course there should be increased attention paid to the structure and quality of spending, but for now we should applaud the &ldquo;Frydenberg Pivot&rdquo;.

Saul Eslake said the strategy of providing further stimulus to push unemployment down to levels <a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenberg-has-the-opportunity-to-transform-australia-permanently-lowering-unemployment-156175">not seen consistently since the first half of the 1970s</a> was the right one. It meant the Reserve Bank and the treasury would no longer be working at &ldquo;cross purposes&rdquo; as they had been for most of the past two decades.

But Eslake said the budget fell short in the A$20 billion it devoted to tax concessions for small business in the mistaken and unfounded belief it is &ldquo;the engine room of the economy&rdquo; and in housing measures that failed to heed warnings from history about the risks of ultra-high loan-to-valuation ratios.

Rebecca Cassells of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said the claim that 60,000 jobs would flow from extending the temporary loss carry back and full expensing tax concessions was &ldquo;a stretch,&rdquo; with the connection quite tenuous.

Bucks, but not the biggest bang

Consultant Nicki Hutley said a bigger boost to the JobSeeker unemployment payment would have achieved much more than the $7.8 billion one-year extension of the &ldquo;<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-low-and-middle-income-tax-offset-has-been-extended-yet-again-it-delivers-help-neither-when-nor-where-its-needed-160772">lamington</a>&rdquo; low and middle income tax offset.

Economic modeller Janine Dixon said while spending more to get more people into work was the &ldquo;right setting for the times,&rdquo; Australia had to ensure its workforce was ready to supply the extra aged care and child care and disability services it had funded by delivering the right training, especially in the absence of migration, which has traditionally been used to address workforce shortages.

Labour market specialist Elisabetta Magnani said measures to boost wages in the caring occupations could have achieved the double bonus of drawing more workers into those occupations and shrinking the gender pay gap, given that more than 80% of the workers in residential aged care are female.

Little for net-zero

Michael Keating, a former head of the prime minister&rsquo;s department, said restoring high wage growth would require big investments in education and training, which sits oddly with the cuts in funding for universities. The extra funding for apprentices and trainees only makes up for past cuts.

Professor Gigi Foster said the $1.7 billion spent on childcare subsidies was only &ldquo;surface-level fiddling with the sticker price&rdquo;.

&ldquo;Where is the supply-side intervention required to make childcare services sustainably accessible and of high quality?&rdquo; she asked. &ldquo;Childcare should be viewed as social infrastructure. Instead, when we heard infrastructure, it was mainly code for transportation.&rdquo;

Margaret Nowak of Curtin University said a budget that really &ldquo;built for the future&rdquo; would not have focused on the &ldquo;infrastructure of the past&rdquo;. Professor Richardson lamented that most of the infrastructure spending was on traditional &ldquo;roads and ports&rdquo; when the future was net-zero emissions.

&ldquo;There is little in the budget that supports this transformation,&rdquo; she said. &ldquo;It is an extraordinary lost opportunity.

Nicki Hutley said retooling the economy for zero emissions would have brought forth &quot;more jobs, higher wages, more growth and private sector co-investment&rdquo;.

Some concern about debt

Former OECD director Adrian Blundell-Wignall said a much-greater investment in vaccinations would have helped &ldquo;get the economy back to work and the borders opened sooner which, in turn, would have saved unemployment benefits, tourism, aviation support and the need for the extension of temporary measures&rdquo;.

And he was concerned that a jump in US inflation might cause international interest rates to rise faster than expected, forcing Australia to cut its projected budget deficits in order to stabilise net debt.

Former International Monetary Fund economist Tony Makin, a <a href="https://research.treasury.gov.au/external-paper/the-effectiveness-of-federal-fiscal-policy-a-review">critic</a> of government spending during the global financial crisis, described the budget spending as a &ldquo;knee-jerk primitive Keynesian reaction&rdquo; to the COVID recession.

Unease about going into debt to keep and create jobs aside (and very few of the economists surveyed shared Makin&rsquo;s unease) the criticisms of the economists surveyed relate to execution and details. If Frydenberg had been judged on his approach, most would have given him an A.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks-161347">original article</a>.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s objective of securing Australia’s economic recovery and building for the future, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an A

jordan_55689

Economists decline to give budget top marks

There was one surprise for the housing sector in tonight's federal budget, and three foreshadowed housing measures were made official.

The federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg advised the parliament in his budget speech that new house starts were now at the highest level in 20 years. 

"New loans to first home buyers reached their highest level in nearly 12 years.

"HomeBuilder has been a huge success and our $2 billion investment in affordable housing is bringing on more supply," he said.

"Our housing measures go even further," he added.

"Helping another 10,000 first home buyers build a new home with a 5 per cent deposit.

"Supporting 10,000 single parents to purchase a home with a 2 per cent deposit. 

"Increasing the amount that can be released under the First Home Super Saver Scheme from $30,000 to $50,000.

"Under the Coalition, home ownership will always be supported," he noted.

The budget effectively continued the First Home Low Deposit Scheme for new homes and off the plan acquistions, and tweaked the First Home Super Saver Scheme, and introduced a new scheme for single parents.

The 10,000 Family Home Guarantees will be made available for single parents over the next four financial years.

The Family Home Guarantee will be available regardless of whether that single parent is a first home buyer or previous owner-occupier. 

Applicants have an annual taxable income of no more than $125,000. 

A fact sheet with further information on eligibility criteria will be available on the NHFIC’s website next week.

The surprise announcement was the government will lower the minimum age for the downsizer super contribution from 65 to 60.

“This will allow Australians nearing retirement to make a one-off post-tax contribution of up to $300,000 per person (or $600,000 per couple) when they sell their family home,” the budget documents advised.

“This improves the flexibility for Australians to contribute to their superannuation savings, and may encourage people to downsize sooner and increase the supply of family homes.”

The budgetary measure will be argued as positive for first home buyers and next home buyers by freeing up established housing stock for younger property buyers.

There was a warning after the budget announcement from the Property Council on the long-term economic consequences of idling population growth.
 
"Budget assumptions anticipate that Australia’s population growth will be limited to only 0.2 per cent over in the next financial year. Net overseas migration is forecast at -77,000 in 2021/22, with a return to normal levels of migration not expected until 2024/25," the PCA noted.
 
“The Budget has revealed that our restricted border is the biggest constraint on our economy.
 
“Our lack of growth is going to catch up with us with economic and employment growth expectations slowing over the forward estimates.
 
“Population growth is not an optional extra for Australia’s economy," the PCA said.

The budget also made $15 billion in additional infrastructure commitments including for:

a) the North‑South Corridor in South Australia
b) the Great Western Highway and Newcastle airport in New South Wales
c) the new Melbourne Intermodal Terminal in Victoria 
d) the Bruce Highway in Queensland
e) METRONET in Western Australia
f) highway upgrades in the Northern Territory
g) Light Rail Stage 2A in the Australian Capital Territory and
h) Midland Highway upgrades in Tasmania.

Josh Frydenberg noted that "when construction work began to dry up, HomeBuilder came to the rescue."



jchancellor

Federal Budget formalises three mooted housing measures

EXPERT INSIGHT

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg calls this a &ldquo;pandemic budget&rdquo; &ndash; one to sustain the economy in times that are still uncertain &ndash; but it also has a substantial element of an election budget.

That&rsquo;s not to suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison will rush to the polls this year. But given the election has to be held by May 21, 2022, this is likely to be the last budget of the cycle. Another could be squeezed in, as in 2019, but it would have to be brought forward from the normal time.

Last year the treasurer said budget repair and debt repayment &ndash; otherwise known as the hard and unpleasant decisions &ndash; wouldn&rsquo;t be undertaken before unemployment was &ldquo;comfortably&rdquo; below 6%.

Now unemployment is 5.6% (the March figure) but Frydenberg has shifted the goal posts, so the emphasis remains on recovery, with more difficult reckonings a way off &ndash; beyond the election.

Given a grim COVID picture internationally and a long way to go with the vaccine program locally, that is sound &ndash; and also politically convenient.

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In this budget, the government&rsquo;s policy approach is firmly aligned with that of the Reserve Bank, with Frydenberg embracing the bank&rsquo;s objective of pushing unemployment well below pre-pandemic levels, which means to a rate with a 4 in front of it.

Two central spending areas in the budget have been, in effect, imposed on the government.

It had to respond to the damning findings of the aged care royal commission. The fact most Australian COVID deaths occurred in aged care underlined how unfit for purpose the system is. Frydenberg told the ABC there will be more than $10 billion spending on aged care over the forward estimates.

The budget&rsquo;s &ldquo;women&rsquo;s&rdquo; focus &mdash; a sharp contrast to last year &mdash; has drivers that go beyond the urgent need to do more to combat violence against women, and other imperatives.

Morrison&rsquo;s &ldquo;women problem&rdquo;, which exploded with the demonstrations following the high-profile allegations of rape, most obviously increased the attention on women in this budget, which will include a women&rsquo;s statement with initiatives on health, safety, and economic security.

Also, Labor&rsquo;s decision to make childcare one of its main policy pitches, promising a big spend, reinforced economic considerations pushing the government to produce its own childcare policy (which doesn&rsquo;t start until July 2022).

Even in the middle of the pandemic last year, few would have thought that by now we&rsquo;d still have no firm idea when our international borders will re-open.

Morrison is cautious about it, and judges that&rsquo;s in line with the thinking of the Australians public at the moment. He can read those state electoral results as well as anyone &mdash; he knows people put health safety above all else.

&ldquo;International borders will only open when it is safe to do so&rdquo;, he said on Facebook at the weekend. &ldquo;Australians are living like in few countries around the world today.&rdquo;

On the other hand, the pressure for students to come, migration to resume and people to be allowed to travel must build sooner or later.

The budget&rsquo;s assumptions will put the reopening in 2022, Frydenberg told the ABC at the weekend

Economist Saul Eslake says while keeping the country closed to the outside world is obviously not sustainable in the long run, it has, in a perverse way, some short run plusses for the government&rsquo;s economic objectives.

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s very easy to get unemployment down when the border is closed. You only need to create 5000 new jobs a month to prevent unemployment rising.

&quot;Previously [with migrants coming] you needed 16,000 new jobs a month. Currently we&rsquo;re creating 60,000 a month,&rdquo; Eslake says.

Migrants stimulate growth. But so does having Australians unable to travel overseas, Eslake says. They can only spend domestically &ndash; or save &ndash; the $55 billion they would normally be spending abroad. They appear to be spending quite a deal of it on things like home equipment, furnishings, renovations, cars, and even clothing.

While fiscal repair is formally delayed, the budget will show it is gradually, to a degree, repairing itself.

The quicker-than-expected bounce back of the labour market, which reduces welfare costs and boosts tax revenue, and the similar rebound in corporate profits, help the bottom line. Frydenberg says that, despite JobKeeper coming to an end, 105,000 people came off income support in April. High iron ore prices are also a godsend to revenue.

Chris Richardson, from Deloitte Access Economics, has forecast a deficit for this financial year of about $167 billion, compared with the December budget update figure of $198 billion. For 2021-22 , the Deloitte forecast is a deficit of about $87 billion compared with the update&rsquo;s forecast of $108 billion.

Still, a balanced budget will be some years off, Richardson says.

He gives four reasons: substantial structural spending on aged care, mental health, childcare, disability and the like; low wage and price inflation (inflation helps budgets); missing migrants; and interest payments on debt (helped by low interest rates but still significant).

On what we know, the budget will be safe rather than adventurous. And while budgets can always unexpectedly trip over their own feet, and inevitably have plenty of critics, this will be the sort of benign one that doesn&rsquo;t go out of its way to hurt or offend voters.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" hub="" o3us6t2oy="" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160594/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316">Michelle Grattan</a>, Professorial Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865">University of Canberra</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-budget-for-a-pandemic-with-next-years-election-in-mind-160594">original article</a>.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg calls this a “pandemic budget” – one to sustain the economy in times that are still uncertain – but it also has a substantial element of an election budget

A budget for a pandemic, with next year's election in mind

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Negative gearing remains, but the entitlement rules are being tightened around what can be claimed by property investors on travel expenses.
Investors will no longer be able to claim tax deductions for travel expenses “related to inspecting, maintaining or collecting rent for a residential rental property” from July 1.
Of the nation's 2 million landlords, about 1.3 million are negatively geared.
The measure is intended to “address concerns that many taxpayers have been claiming travel deductions without correctly apportioning costs”.
The government expects the travel changes to bring in an extra $540 million in revenue over the next four years.
Australia's 1.3 million-strong contingent of negatively geared landlords will no longer be able to claim travel expenses for inspecting their residential properties.
It also applies for travel to collect rent on a property.
At present, travel-related ­expense claims related to inspections but in reality ‘holidays’ is costing the government more than $160 million a year.
"This is an integrity measure to address concerns that many taxpayers have been claiming travel deductions without correctly apportioning costs, or have claimed travel costs that were for private travel purposes," the budget papers say.
It does not apply to commercial property.
Property management fees for third parties such as real estate agents will remain tax deductible.
The 2017 budget sees rules being tightened around what can be claimed by property investors, specifically around depreciation deductions.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Property investors to lose travel expense tax claims: 2017 Budget

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From 1 July 2018 the Government will require purchasers of new residential premises to remit the GST directly to the ATO as part of settlement.
KPMG's Indirect Tax Partner Kate Law says this announcement comes as a surprise.
"It is a significant divergence from the way the GST system currently operates , where GST is collected from the supplier (developers).
"The Government has announced this change as a tax integrity measure," she noted.
Around four years ago, ATO compliance programs targeted illegal “phoenix” activity, purportedly from a number of property developers who repeatedly placed companies in liquidation with outstanding GST obligations, despite having claimed input tax credits on construction costs.
However, KPMG indicated it was not aware of industry consultation on this issue more recently.
"We question the practicality and administrative cost of imposing GST on unregistered ‘mum and dad’ purchasers.
"Where developers use the margin scheme to calculate the GST liability, the purchaser is unlikely to be aware of the amount of GST included in the purchase price.
"This measure will therefore require developers to change the way they disclose the price to ensure the GST liability is disclosed as a separate line item," it noted
The Budget papers state that this measure is estimated to increase GST revenue by $660 million and associated payments to the States and Territories, net of administrative costs, by $1.6 billion over the forward estimates period (4 years to 2019-20).
However, the Budget papers state that the difference is due to the timing of when GST is collected and recognised.
"This suggests that it is not a permanent GST difference - which is seemingly at odds with the Government’s statement that some developers are failing to remit the GST to the ATO.”
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New residential GST surprise policy shift in 2017 Budget 

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Foreign investors are facing a tax crackdown under the Budget package.
As of Tuesday's budget, foreign and temporary tax residents will no longer be exempt from a capital gains tax when selling their main residence in Australia.
Capital gains tax rules are being tightened for foreign investors, who will no longer be able to access the main residence exemption.
The new rule starts on budget night but will be grandfathered for existing properties until June 30, 2019, suggesting there might be an exodus arise to avoid paying the extended tax.
The Australian tax law is already complex when it is applied to domestic transactions, but its complexity increases when multiple jurisdictions and foreigner taxpayers are involved.
Accountants advise when evaluating Australian property as an investment, a foreign investor needs to fully understand their taxation obligations in both Australia and their own country of residence, which often requires the engagement of tax specialists in both countries.
It is suggested an individual will be an Australian tax resident if they reside in Australia or in Australia for over 183 days in the year of income.
Even though Australian tax residents will be taxed on worldwide income and the individual top marginal tax rate is relatively higher, there had been benefits of being tax residents until the budget announcement, including:
<ul>
<li>Access to the 50 percent CGT discount if the CGT asset is held for greater than 12 months;</li>
<li>Their main residence will be exempt from CGT upon sale (this would generally not apply to non-residents); and</li>
<li>There is no foreign stamp duty surcharge.</li>
</ul>
The withholding rate on capital gains tax that foreigners must pay when they sell property will increase to 12.5 percent from 10 percent beginning from July 1.
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Foreigners lose capital gains tax exemption on main residence 

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The Federal Budget has given seniors a nudge as part of its attempts to ease housing affordability by getting them to downsize. 
From July 1, 2018, people aged 65 and over will be able to make a non-concessional contribution (NCC) of up to $300,000 from the sale of their principal residence into their superannuation, if they have lived there for at least 10 years.
With this move, the government aims to encourage empty nesters to downsize to free up more multi-bedroomed properties.
The downsizing contributions will be outside of existing contribution caps, and both members of a couple will be able to take advantage of the measure from the same home. The scheme is expected to cost the government $30 million in lost revenue over the forward estimates period, News.com.au reported.
The new incentive is in addition to concessions already permitted and will be exempt from the age test, work test and the $1.6 million balance test for the NCC.
The measures apply from July 1, 2018.
The budget measure has been welcomed by the SMSF Association.
Association Chief Executive Officer John Maroney it would allow a couple to contribute up to $600,000 from the sale of their home to superannuation outside of the existing caps and balance restrictions.
"This means people can make a significant top-up contribution to their super funds, allowing them to fund a dignified and secure retirement,” he was cited as saying by moneymanagement.com.au.
"While the measure may not be a significant trigger to encourage downsizing, we welcome the ability for older Australians to top up their superannuation where downsizing their home provides them with funds to do so.”
But there are concerns for down-shifters on how the extra super assets would reduce their part-pension entitlement.
SMSF Association head of policy Jordan George had advised caution about such a move ahead of the budget.
“Incentives to encourage people to downsize their home is a sensible idea,” George told selfmanagedsuper. 
But while the exemption was a good idea in principle, George said it was crucial to consider any ramifications of such a measure for people’s pension entitlements. 
“The assets test for the age pension when people downsize and the profit from downsizing may affect their entitlement to the age pension – that could become a significant issue,” he noted. 
KPMG tax partner Damian Ryan said allowing older couples downsizing to contribute to their super funds was welcome news.
"This will allow some older Australians to sell the family home and contribute some of the proceeds into superannuation,” he said, adding, “Those on the age pension are unlikely to take up this initiative.”
He said the measure would be attractive to a group of members who would like to sell their family home but due to contribution caps would have been prevented from topping up their superannuation balance, essentially transferring funds from one tax-preferred asset to another.
Also, residence requirements for the Age Pension and Disability Support Pension are increasing to 10 years continuous residence, including five of a person’s working life, which will affect about 2,400 people.
 
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Budget 2017 encourages downsizing by pensioners, caution urged on entitlements

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An ATO rule was introduced to catch foreign sellers taking money overseas.
But it was applied to all Australian sellers of $2 million-plus properties - and will now cover all sales above $750,000 in an expanded audit which will also catch local hidden black market property sellers.
The rule classifies all sellers as overseas investors unless they get a special tax clearance.
That means that all buyers of $750,000 plus properties must deduct 10 percent from the purchase price and pay that amount to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) unless the seller can furnish a tax clearance. 
The rule will affect everyone, including Australians, despite being aimed at overseas investors taking their property windfalls overseas.
The measure can be traced back to the days when former treasurer Joe Hockey caved into pressures to curb Chinese investment in Australian residential property in 2015.
In the process, the treasurer was convinced by the Australian Taxation Office to widen the net to cover local residents.
According to an ATO fact sheet, in May 2013, the government announced that it would introduce a 10 percent non-final withholding tax on payments made to foreign residents who dispose of certain taxable Australian property with a market value above a specified $2 million threshold.
The new legislation for this measure became law in February 2016.
The $2 million rule applied to vacant land, buildings, residential and commercial property, leaseholds and strata title schemes.
The ATO website says, "The government is strengthening our foreign resident capital gains tax (CGT) regime to assist in the collection of foreign residents' liabilities."
A purchaser who does not receive a “clearance certificate” from the vendor and does not send 10 per cent of the purchase price off to the ATO will be liable to pay that 10 percent to the ATO plus
In the majority of cases, local resident vendors will have no problem obtaining a clearance certificate, but it might increase the risk of a tax audit for property sellers who:
<ul>
<li>Have not filed tax returns for many years;</li>
<li>Have filed tax returns, which would indicate they could not afford such a property;</li>
<li>Are selling their residential house at the same time as their neighbours to a single developer, which may give rise to a profit making scheme (such that the principal residence capital gains tax exemption may not apply to the value uplift generated by selling the properties together); or</li>
<li>Where the ATO has gathered information that indicates the vendor is in the business of developing property, which means that the principal residence capital gains tax exemption may not apply.</li>
</ul>
It was inevitable that over time, the ATO would shift their audit target identification processes to lower than $2 million-plus property vendors.
If the vendor has a tax debt, the application for a “clearance certificate” may in some circumstances involve the ATO seeking to recover some or all of that tax debt from the purchaser by way of a garnishee notice. 
In June of last year Property Observer reported on the obligations for seller and buyers for $2 million plus <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/55151-property-101-sellers-and-buyers-obligations-with-2-million-plus-clearance-certificates" target="_blank">clearance certificates</a>.
Similarly in June last year Property Observer reported on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/54761-the-2-million-luxury-homes-proof-of-citizenship-paperwork-globalx" target="_blank">new legislation</a> on the sale of $2 million plus homes.
Property Observer also reported in May last year about the upcoming <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/53838-property-101-the-ato-2-million-prestige-property-sale-new-rules" target="_blank">ATO legislation</a> that will affect sales of $2 million.
Property Observer commented on how the new ATO rule on property deals for $2 million houses will affect <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/53731-new-ato-rule-on-property-deals-over-2-million-will-hurt-chinese-buyers-even-more" target="_blank">Chinese buyers</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

All $750,000 plus property sales to be caught in ATO audit aimed at overseas investors

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The capital gains tax for granny flats is to be scrapped next year following last night's Federal budget.
From July 1 2021, a homeowner will no longer have to pay capital gains tax where there is an agreement for a family member to reside in their home.
"It will not apply to the creation, variation or termination of a formal written granny flat arrangement providing accomodation for older Australians or people with disabilities," King&amp;Woods Mallesons advise.
"This change will only apply to agreements that are entered into because of family relationships or other personal ties and will not apply to commercial rental arrangements."
The removal of the tax is still subject to legislation passing Parliament.
The exemption will effect around 3.9 million pensioners and around four million Australians with a disability, according to the AFR.
"Under the measure, CGT will not apply to the creation, variation or termination of a formal written granny flat arrangement providing accommodation for older Australians or people with disabilities," Mr Frydenberg said.
"When faced with a potentially significant CGT liability, families may opt for informal arrangements which can leave open the risk of financial abuse and exploitation, for example following a family or relationship breakdown." 
 
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CGT exemption for granny flats under 2021 budget

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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<h2>What does it all mean?</h2>
The Federal Government has had one mantra over the COVID-19 environment: to keep business in business and keep people in jobs. And despite the budget headed for the biggest deficit in 75 years, that mantra will continue to echo in the upcoming budget. A deficit of around $220 billion or 11 per cent of GDP is expected this year (2020/21).
Based on usual leaks, pre-announcements and speculation, the budget will be focussed on jobs. Other key measures include tax cuts, cash handouts for payments, significant spending on infrastructure, a new apprenticeship &amp; trainee program, investment in manufacturing and a Digital Business Plan.
One on-going issue will be wage subsidy schemes. There is growing debate on how the schemes should be structured. Some are concerned that jobseekers will be pushed into poverty if the programs are wound back too quickly. But others are concerned that the programs are too generous – and if kept in place too long it will lead to jobseekers staying out the job market and thus becoming less employable over time. The latter situation has been a constant feature of past recessions.
Budget speculation: What do we know so far?
Ahead of each budget, AAP newswires compiles the ultimate guide. And this year is no different. Paul Osborne from AAP has compiled the following report.
Also Newscorp press yesterday reported that tax cuts could be brought forward to begin July 2020.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/10/6/Budget%20GDP.png" alt="">
Today, the Government announced that half the salary of new apprentices and trainees in any industry will be paid for by the federal government for one year under a wage scheme to create jobs. The scheme is reported to cost $1.2 billion to employ 100,000 new workers and will begin Monday October 5.
Media is also reporting a focus in the budget on boosting female employment.
The AAP report from Paul Osborne:
THE BIG PICTURE
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg say it will be a "jobs budget" with the aim of driving the recovery out of the first recession since the 1990s
Estimated budget deficit of $200 billion
Debt edging upwards of $800 billion
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/10/6/Revenue%20slump.png" alt="">
Expected $140 billion in stimulus over four years
INFRASTRUCTURE
Funding to expand two NSW dams, Wyangala and Dungowan.
$53 million funding for gas infrastructure as part of a national plan
$211 million for domestic fuel security facilities
More flexible rules for the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility to invest
HIP-POCKETS
Possible bringing forward of personal tax cuts due to start in 2022
2.5 million pensioners to get extra help to make up for an inflation-related rise not going ahead
HomeBuilder package likely to be extended
No changes to the JobSeeker dole payments. Government wants more data on economic conditions before deciding.
BUSINESS
$112 million in fringe benefits tax changes to ease burden on small business
Consideration of a business investment allowance
Wage incentive for small and medium-sized businesses to take on new workers
$1.5 billion manufacturing strategy
$800 million aimed at helping individuals and businesses work online
$53 million funding for television and film production and new content rules
Possible rule changes around "loss carry-back" for businesses
HEALTH
Extension of telehealth and e-prescription services
Extra funding for aged care, ahead of the receipt of the royal commission report
New strategy to get young people out of residential aged care
$9 million for research into cancer in children and young adults
REGIONS
$100 million for new Regional Recovery Partnerships (projects in areas hit by drought, bushfires and coronavirus)
$30 million for the Regional Connectivity Program (local telecommunications projects)
$50 million Regional Tourism Recovery initiative (assist businesses in regions heavily reliant on international tourism)
$200 million for an additional round of the Building Better Regions Fund
$50 million extra in rebates for farmers seeking to put in bores and dams
EDUCATION
Extra $326 million to provide 12,000 more university places for domestic students
WELFARE
$7.6 million for parents experiencing stillborn babies or the death of a child under 12 months of age
700 new safe places for women and children escaping domestic violence under $60 million "safe places" initiative
ENVIRONMENT
$61.7 million for nature-based tourism.
<h2>What are the implications for investors?</h2>
Stimulus is expected to continue. Governments and central banks will continue to do all that it takes to get the economy back to a sense of normalcy. Interest rates will stay low for three years. And the government won’t start crafting plans to wind back deficits and debts until the jobless rate is comfortably below 6 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/6/10/economy%20long%20run.png" alt="">
Investors can largely ignore economic and budget forecasts longer than a year away. So much can change in a short space of time in the pandemic recession.
The budget will be judged on the ability to create and sustain jobs and keep business in business, rather than being judged on meeting specific fiscal and economic forecasts.
Retailers, building &amp; construction trades, manufacturing, pensioners, young people and middle-income workers look to be the main winners from the budget.
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at CommSec.
 
 
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