Falling Prices

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When we think about the housing market we tend to focus on when values rise but in the recent past values have fallen in each capital city; this week we look at the magnitude and duration of these falls in the past.
Throughout the past 20 years it has been much more common for combined capital city dwelling values to have been increasing than falling. 
Although value rises have been more common, it doesn’t mean that the housing market is bulletproof and in some instances values have fallen quite dramatically and rapidly. 
Typically the Reserve Bank (RBA) or the Government have adjusted fiscal and/or monetary policy to support the housing market and arrest the value falls.
Across the combined capital cities, dwelling values have increased by 346.4% over the 20 years to April 2017. 
In the two periods in which values have fallen, capital city dwelling values fell by -6.1% between March and December 2008 and they fell by -7.4% between October 2010 and May 2012.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.53.45%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.53.45%20am.jpg" alt="">
At an individual capital city level housing markets have cycled quite differently however, the majority of capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values in both 2008 and from late 2010/early 2011. 
The 2008 decline occurred as the financial crisis hit with values falling however, stimulus measures in the form of aggressive interest rate cuts along with cash handouts and boosts to first home buyer’s grants proved enough to spur demand and turnaround the decline in values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.53.56%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.53.56%20am.jpg" alt="">
In 2010 dwelling values fell as the post financial crisis stimulus was being wound out of the market with interest rates increasing and first home buyer incentives being removed. 
These value falls were arrested as the RBA reversed direction and started to cut official interest rates again in late 2011.
Looking at the declines which commenced in 2008, the magnitude of falls was fairly minor considering most advanced economies fell into recession as a result of the financial crisis. 
Hobart and Darwin were relatively unaffected by the declines however, Melbourne (-8.3%), Perth (-6.8%) and Sydney (-6.2%) were more impacted than all other capital cities. 
The period of decline proved quite short and it has become clear that the stimulus measures effectively staved off sharper declines and possibly a national recession.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.07%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.07%20am.jpg" alt="">
From 2010 to 2011/12 all capital cities experienced falls in dwelling values as the financial crisis stimulus and low interest rates were wound out of the market. 
Sydney (-5.0%), Adelaide (-6.9%) and Canberra (-4.4%) were the only capital cities in which values didn’t fall by more than 10% over this period. 
The largest falls were recorded in Darwin (-19.7%), Hobart (-14.3%) and Brisbane (-11.7%). 
Over the period of falls, Darwin (-1.2%) averaged the largest average monthly fall along with Hobart (-0.8%), Melbourne (-0.6%) and Perth (-0.6%). 
Across the other capital cities, Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra recorded average declines of -0.3%/month and Brisbane’s declines averaged -0.5%/month.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.19%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%209.54.19%20am.jpg" alt="">
This analysis serves as a reminder that although capital city dwelling values have largely increased over the past 20 years, they are not immune from potential declines. 
The impetus for these previous declines have been external economic shocks and the stimulus of low interest rates and grants to first home buyers being removed. 
We aren’t currently seeing any economic shocks of the size of the 2008 financial crisis but we are seeing unemployment rate at similar levels to 2008/09 and historically high levels of underemployment. 
The market is also slowly seeing historic low mortgage rates moving higher against a backdrop of record low wages growth and record high household debt. 
Depending on how much mortgage rates are increased (noting that this is not happening due to the RBA) home owners should be aware that it could lead to a slowing or even some potential falls in dwelling values.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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What happens when house prices start falling? Cameron Kusher

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A vacated Parramatta apartment has sold for $32,000 less than it did 2014.
Located at 103B/3 Broughton Street, the unit features one bedroom, one bathroom, a car space, and a balcony.
In May it sold for $483,000.
In 2014, however, it was secured for $515,000 from the developer Starryland.
The ground floor unit was on the market for 45 days.
The sale comes amid fears that a market decline, with <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/113756-sydney-house-prices-could-fall-by-15-per-cent-and-melbourne-17-per-cent-drop-next-year-hsbc" target="_blank">HSBC estimating that Sydney prices could fall by 15 per cent if current economic conditions are extended.</a>
Christopher Sahyoun and John Dahdah, from Belle Property Parramatta, had the listing.
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Starryland, Parramatta apartment sold for $32,000 less than 2014 price

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The core task for investors is to find the growth locations, preferably before values rise significantly.
It’s not an easy one because there’s a shortage of helpful information. Mostly the media and the research companies give us historical information and usually in a generalised way. 
This means they tell what’s happened recently, which doesn’t necessarily inform the future, and usually with a single growth figure to describe an entire major city.
But something that came recently from CoreLogic was a little more helpful, because it provided some segmentation of sub-markets. Rather than simply tell us that Sydney and Melbourne prices are falling, it acknowledged that this is only true of some market sectors – and that others are still rising.
There are some patterns with this data which are handy to observe and useful in deciding what happens next and where.
One of the things I know to be true, from a scary number of years of experience, is that up-cycles often/usually begin in the inner-city areas. Over time they ripple out to the middle-ring suburbs and latterly to the outer-ring areas.
Why is it so? One reason, probably the biggest single one, is that real estate markets are largely driven by local economic conditions – not by national factors like interest rate levels or taxation policies, but by what’s happening in the economy at a local level.
This helps to explain why Sydney and Melbourne, underpinned by the No.1 and No.2 economies in the nation, have had booms while the cities afflicted by the weakest of the state/territory economies, Perth and Darwin, have had markets in reverse.
When economies rise, the first people to notice are those in the business community – the ones earning the most money. They react before anyone else does and they tend to live in the millionaire suburbs. Those markets rise first and others follow over time.
When you get towards the end of the cycle, those early adopters have passed their peaks and it’s the cheaper areas on the fringes that are experiencing the busiest markets and the strongest annual price growth.
So, according to the recently-published CoreLogic figures, it’s overly simplistic to claim that Melbourne house prices are falling. CoreLogic’s analysis says that prices in the upper end of the market are down 3.5 percent (generally speaking), but prices at the affordable end are up more than 10 percent.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which indicates that the outer-ring precincts in the Greater Melbourne area – suburbs in LGAs like Hume, Whittlesea, Casey, Melton and Wyndham – have strong sales activity and price growth. And this is what we would expect at this point in the Melbourne cycle.
There’s a similar scenario in Sydney – the upper end price levels generally are falling but there’s still some growth in the cheaper outlying areas.
The pattern for Hobart is interesting and informative, because it suggests that the Tasmanian capital is still pumping but that the peak might be near. The top end of the Hobart market is still rising (up almost 10 percent) but the cheaper end is up a lot more (around 18 percent, according to these figures).
That suggests the market overall is still strong but the lower end is the strongest.
In terms of how all this informs the future, Perth is a good case study. When I recently looked at all the numbers for Perth, one of the things that stood out was that many of the million-dollars suburbs had recorded good growth in their median house prices but elsewhere this was not the case.
The CoreLogic figures would tend to confirm that, because they find that the upper end has risen but the cheaper end is still slightly in the negative.
This, taken with other information, confirms for me that Perth is moving into a recovery phase in response to improvements in the local economy – and, as I would expect, the upper end areas are the first to react.
I’ve seen evidence of a similar scenario in Adelaide, with many of the top end suburbs showing good annual price growth, ahead of what I expect to be a strong showing by the Adelaide market generally in the next 12-18 months.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Pinpointing where house values are rising and where they are falling

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Back on 19th March when we first looked at the impact of the intensifying shutdown of the Australian economy on the housing market (see here) we concluded that the impact would depend on how high unemployment rose.
Our base case was a recession that saw unemployment rise to around 7.5% and would push average home prices down around 5%, but the risk was that a deeper downturn with say 10% unemployment could see a 20% fall in prices. Subsequent government support measures along with an earlier reopening of the economy have reduced the risk of worse case scenarios for home prices.
So Far So Good
The combination of the need for social distancing and the banning for a while of traditional on-site auctions led to a sharp decline in properties for sale.
In addition to this, the Federal Government’s JobKeeper scheme keeping around 3.5 million people in paid employment and a doubling in unemployment benefits along with bank mortgage payment holidays, all of which are for the six months to September, have helped head off an increase in forced sales that might have occurred given the size of the hit to the economy.
So, while property demand has fallen, it’s been matched by a collapse in supply, which has left the property market in a bit of a twilight zone.
While listings have started to pick up a bit lately, they are still very low and this has all helped soften the blow to house prices that would have otherwise occurred, but prices are still starting to fall. According to CoreLogic, after slowing to just 0.2% growth in April, average capital city home prices fell -0.5% in May.
Prices fell in all cities except Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra, with Melbourne -0.9%, Sydney -0.4% and Perth -0.6%. This has seen the monthly change in capital city home prices collapse from a peak of 2% in November.
The positives for the property outlook
There are basically five “positives” for property prices. 
Mortgage rates have fallen to record lows with deals around 2 to 3%. This is keeping mortgage debt interest costs as a share of household income well below historic highs even though the ratio of household debt to income is at a record high of around 200%. Low mortgage costs also make the funding costs for an investment property very low.
As noted above, while listings remain low. 
Government support measures have provided a huge boost to household income, supported businesses, supported employment for around 3.5 million workers, prevented a confidence zapping surge in measured unemployment &amp; with bank mortgage payment holidays (which has seen around 440,000 mortgage deferrals) are preventing a sharp rise in mortgage delinquencies and hence forced sales. 
The shutdown, impacting mostly services jobs, has hit women and younger workers harder in contrast to past recessions which have hit male breadwinners harder and this may have helped keep down debt servicing problems. 
China is running 2-3 months ahead of Australia with respect to the coronavirus shock and its experience provides some guide. While property sales were near zero in the peak lockdown month of February average property price growth slowed but did not go negative and is now picking up a bit.
The negatives
Against these positives there are these big “negatives” for property prices flowing from the coronavirus shock.
High unemployment. We have long regarded the combination of high house prices and high household debt as Australia’s Achilles heel and so we feared back in March that a large rise in unemployment could trigger debt servicing problems, forced sales and so sharp falls in prices.
As it’s turned out, measured unemployment is being suppressed and household incomes supported by stimulus measures. This is by design to help businesses, jobs and incomes hold up through the shutdown period.
It’s likely headed off the worst case 20% decline in house prices scenario we saw in March. But once the support measures end later this year, measured unemployment will likely rise to around 8% and take a long time to fall back to the pre coronavirus levels around 5.2%.
This in turn is likely to lead to some increase in mortgage defaults as bank payment holidays (for around 440,000 mortgages) end, boosting forced sales and act as a drag on property demand, albeit it’s unlikely to be anywhere near what would have occurred in the absence of support measures through the shutdown. 
A big drop in immigration. Thanks to travel bans, the Government expects net immigration to fall to just below 170,000 this financial year and to around 35,000 next financial year from 240,000 last financial year. This is a huge hit and if it occurs – the Government could always allow a faster return of immigration – it will take population growth over 2020-21 to just 0.7%, its lowest since 1917.
It will imply a hit to underlying dwelling demand of around 80,000 dwellings over the next 12 months taking it down to around 120,000 compared to underlying demand last year of around 200,000. This risks resulting in a significant oversupply of dwellings, reversing years of undersupply that has maintained very high house prices since mid-last decade.
A cut to immigration is not something China has had to deal with, so its property market experience is not directly translatable to Australia.
Falling rents and rising vacancy rates. Vacancy rates rose sharply in April and this plus rent relief is putting downwards pressure on rents. This will be further impacted by very low immigration. It will further weigh on investor demand and may cause problems for heavily geared property investors.
Measures to boost housing construction. Faced with a big reduction in housing construction activity over the year ahead, governments appear to be working on plans to boost activity to protect home builders’ jobs via new home building grants and possibly the construction of social housing.
Normally first home buyer grants provide a boost in overall demand. But if the focus is just on boosting supply at a time when underlying demand is very low reflecting lower immigration it could add to downwards pressure on average prices. (Proposed moves from stamp duty to land tax in some states could provide a short-term boost to home prices but should be long term neutral if the same revenue is raised and it’s unclear whether or when it will occur.)
Concluding comment
Our worst-case scenario for a 20% decline in prices and those of others seeing 30% plus falls are unlikely thanks to support measures and the earlier reopening of the economy. To get these worst-case scenarios would require a “second wave” of coronavirus cases &amp; so a renewed shutdown or another down leg in the economy in response to a surge in bankruptcies.
However, further falls in prices are still likely, as “true” unemployment (to become clear after September) remains high for several years, government support measures and the bank payment holiday end after September, immigration falls and likely government measures boost housing construction. Our base case is for national average prices to fall around 5-10% into next year.
Sydney &amp; Melbourne are likely to see 10% falls as they are more exposed to immigration and have higher debt levels whereas Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth &amp; Hobart are only likely to see small falls and Canberra prices are likely to be flat. This may be seen as a reasonable outcome in terms of making housing more affordable but without posing a big threat to the economy (via a downwards spiral of falling prices and negative wealth effects on consumer spending) at the same time.
Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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Australian house price collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead: Shane Oliver

Further property price falls ahead: Shane Oliver

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After forecasting house price rises every year since 2013, economic commentator Chris Joye has reaffirmed his April 2017 advisory that the property boom is over.
He forecasts that prices will fall in 2018, despite falling unemployment.
He noted Sydney prices started sliding in September this year with the national five-capital city index falling by October, according to CoreLogic numbers.
"Whereas Sydney values have slumped 1.9 per cent, prices across the five capital cities have corrected by a more modest 0.4 per cent.
"And there will likely be the normal seasonality afflicting this data as values typically pull back in December," Joye told readers last week in The Australian Financial Review.
"It's also interesting to observe that there has been no capital appreciation in the stubbornly ebullient Melbourne market since November," he added.
Joye suggests when Australia's jobless rate falls below 5 per cent in 2018, the central bank will have no choice but to raise rates once or twice "assuming it acts rationally."
"This will reinforce the magnitude of the expected correction," he anticipates.
</div>
<div>
Joye looks to the past for solid precedents.
"After the last big bubble that kicked off in earnest in 2001 and ended in December 2003, Sydney prices fell 6.3 per cent in the following three years.
"In the 12 months after their 2003 peak, dwelling values in Melbourne and across the five largest cities declined by 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively."
</div>
<div>Joye notes the 2003 household debt-to-income ratio was merely 150 per cent, "miles below the current 194 per cent mark."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Joye also noted after the cash rate increased from its then "crisis level" of 3 per cent to 4.75 per cent, home values shrunk 6.7 per cent between late 2010 and early 2012.</div>
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"As a minimum I expect prices to match this result.
"Assuming 100 basis points or more of rate increases, my central case is a 10 per cent plus drawdown in what should be a relatively benign mean-reversion in Australia's otherwise unprecedented house price-to-income ratio."
Joye, a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital Investments which invests in fixed-income securities, noted the heftiest fall on record was 8.3 per cent in 2008.
He wrote in October while the next downturn may cause "temporary hysteria" in markets, the tremendous deleveraging of bank balance-sheets, coupled with the de-risking of their business models and a notable improvement in the austerity of lending standards, should ensure they are well-placed to absorb what will be, by international standards, a modest lift in home loan losses.
His April column noted his concerns about "the runaway housing boom."
To address the issue, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) had introduced tough new macroprudential constraints on interest-only lending, in an effort to stifle irresponsible lending and borrowing decisions, in a move backed by Treasurer Scott Morrison.
Joye anticipated a softer auction clearance rate to continue throughout 2017, in tune with a pronounced deceleration in price momentum. 
“I expect this to continue over the rest of the year, which should alleviate the concerns of rating agencies animated by the blindingly obvious financial stability risks propagated by the RBA's cheap money policies,” Joye wrote in October. 
He noted Perth home values had slumped 10 per cent since their December 2014 peak with Joye then predicting that this could eventually happen in Sydney and Melbourne, thus wiping out half the equity of all first time buyers.
</div>
</div>
Residential property in Sydney had benefited from capital gains of 73 per cent since March 2012, care of the RBA slashing its cash rate from 4.75 per cent to 1.5 per cent, transferring wealth from prudent savers to spendthrift borrowers, Joye suggested. 
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Nascent 2017 falling property prices to exceed 6 percent or more through current cycle: Chris Joye

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Alex Perry Apartments in Brisbane’s upmarket Fortitude Valley, were designed to be an exclusive address at their launch in 2011 with much fanfare.
Then they ran into problems.
First, the developers of the delayed 11-storey apartment block removed all three-bedroom apartments from the design.
The three-bedders were replaced with one-bedroom apartments as part of a “redefined product”.
One-bedroom apartments were priced from $381,000 and two-bedroom units from $550,000.
However, since the initial sales, asking prices of the units have been steadily falling.
All apartments were designed by Alex Perry in conjunction with Cottee Parker Architects.
A one-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125836930" target="_blank">1112/959 Ann Street</a>, spanning 59 sqm is for sale at $425,000.
The apartment has been on the market since July this year.
It previously sold for $463,439 in October 2013, CoreLogic RP Data shows.
A two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-404-959-ann-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">404/959 Ann Street</a>, remains listed after 769 days at $527,400. 
CoreLogic RP Data shows it last sold for $589,000 in July 2015.
Similarly, a two-bedroom unit, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-125455306" target="_blank">304/959 Ann Street</a>, which sold for $520,720 in  June 2013, is on the market. The description for the 73 sqm unit says “Urgent Sale for any reasonable offer”. But the listing doesn’t indicate a price. 
Another two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-309-959-ann-st-fortitude-valley-qld-4006" target="_blank">309/959 Ann Street</a> is listed for $522,000. It has been on the market for 528 days!
The apartment first sold in 2015 for $570,000.
A two-bedroom apartment, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-fortitude+valley-126124850" target="_blank">1111/959 Ann Street</a>, sold for $540,960 in 2013. It was listed again in March 2016 and is open to offers above $539,000.
CoreLogic records show that developer Chrome Property acquired the site at 959 Ann Street for $6.27 million in March 2010.
Meanwhile, the Australian fashion designer has secured a <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/78219-alex-perry-buys-darlinghurst-investment-apartment" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Sydney investment apartment in Darlinghurst for $1.7 million</a>.
Perry retains an apartment in the FV complex.
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