Economic Growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Property Council heralded the federal government’s proposal to introduce UK-style City Deals as part of a new Smart Cities Plan as:
"a real innovation in policy [that will] break down the barriers between federal, state and local government – and make all of them partners in economic growth."
Our evidence from the UK experience suggests there are pros and cons in both City Deals and Devolution Deals.
<h2>The pros and cons</h2>
These deals have emerged as the preferred methods of formulating public policy and resource allocation in UK decentralisation. This kind of explicitly “informal governance” is novel and innovative.
“Deal-making” is good at providing a channel for local authorities to talk to central government. It empowers local actors, encourages strategic thinking, promotes innovation and stimulates governance reform.
But the process is marked by problems. These include:
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uneven information and power between central and local actors;
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the ambiguous role of the centre as supporter and appraiser of the plans of local actors;
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capacity nationally and centrally limited by budget austerity;
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lack of transparency;
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highly uneven resource allocation;
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slippage from announcement to implementation; and
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limited evaluation of progress to date.
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As the process has matured with each new round of deal-making, common elements have emerged alongside more bespoke and particular dimensions. But participants are fatigued by the centrally orchestrated deal-making process and episodic timetable, are unclear about the criteria for assessing proposals and uncertain about where it is heading next – and to what ends.
Those negotiating the deals have experienced the paradox that central government is dominating this chapter of decentralisation.
<h2>What Australia might expect</h2>
Unpacking some of these issues may help us understand the rationale behind Australia’s interest in City Deals.
First, against a background of rising public debt, City Deals are said to represent an attempt by the federal government to introduce a new approach to investing in urban infrastructure. However, Australia’s net debt-to-GDP ratio (19 percent) remains a fraction of the UK’s, which is nearly 83 percent.
Clues as to what is expected of City Deals were evident in the press release launching the Smart Cities Plan. The government said the plan will:
"draw on the Commonwealth’s co-ordination capacity and the strength of its balance sheet at a time of historically low interest rates, to get the best infrastructure projects off the ground."
The government’s fiscal position can be used in various ways – either through direct borrowing or de-risking private investment. The City Deal approach’s logic suggests that, in return for “drawing upon” federal capacity, states and local government will be asked to agree mechanisms that ensure local areas prioritise infrastructure projects that deliver growth.
Despite the rhetoric surrounding innovative funding and financing, such concepts have proved difficult to implement in the UK. Instead, emasculated local authorities, facing continued budgetary pressures, have sought long-term (up to 30 years) grant funding from the national government.
For its part, the UK government has also found grants easier to manage than complex earn-back arrangements of the kind devised initially in the Greater Manchester City Deal.
Second, if City Deals are introduced in Australia, then individual agreements will be negotiated between three tiers of government. The experience of the newer City Deals in Scotland (Glasgow, Aberdeen and Inverness) and Wales (Cardiff) – involving UK government, devolved administrations and local authorities more akin to a federal-type situation – may be more instructive for Australian policymakers.
Like the UK, Australia’s national government is proposing to incentivise actions and accountabilities at the sub-national level.
The UK government has dangled the carrot of long-term grant funding to “encourage” local authorities to establish statutory governance partnerships across city regions.
City Deals in Australia may be part of a similar drive for local government reform. This reflects arguments that direct funding of local government by federal government creates efficiencies, and that new investment in local infrastructure requires effective cross-border local government collaboration.
Finally, statements that the City Deals have been instrumental in the “renaissance of Greater Manchester and Glasgow” should be treated with great caution. UK City Deals and Devolution Deals are still at an early stage. Monitoring and evaluation of their impact remains in its infancy.
Ultimately, City Deals may prove successful in Australia and the UK. But, at this initial stage, adopting the model without careful scrutiny and analysis feels more like taking a punt than backing a certainty.
Peter O'Brien is research associate, Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS), Newcastle University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-obrien-97345" target="_blank">here</a>.
Andy Pike is professor of Local and Regional Development, Newcastle University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andy-pike-130682" target="_blank">here</a>.
John Tomaney is professor of Urban and Regional Planning, UCL and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-tomaney-148821" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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Deal or no deal: are UK-style City Deals a good bet for Australia?

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GUEST OBSERVER
"We’ve had 25 years of continuous economic growth, the only country in the world with a period of growth that long. – Trade minister Steven Ciobo, speaking on Q&amp;A, May 31, 2016."
Economic management is shaping up as a key election battleground, and the Coalition has been especially keen to keep the focus on the economy.
Trade minister Steven Ciobo told Q&amp;A viewers that Australia has had 25 years of continuous economic growth, and is the only country in the world with a period of growth that long.
Is that right?
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
A spokesman for Steven Ciobo told The Conversation that Ciobo misspoke on Q&amp;A. The spokesman said by email that:
Mr Ciobo omitted the world developed, he meant to say “developed country”.
That clarification does improve the accuracy of his statement quite considerably. Let’s test his two statements separately.
<h2>25 years of continuous economic growth?</h2>
Australia entered a period of low and sometimes negative economic growth in 1989. The last period where growth was negative was June 1991 (for the quarter-over-quarter growth), and December 1991 (for the year-over-year growth).
I would argue that the weak growth through 1991 means that you can’t say that the economy recovered and was growing until 1992.
So on that definition, we have had about 24.5 continuous growth – which is close enough to the Ciobo’s figure of 25 years.
It is true we are in our 25th year of consecutive economic growth. That’s how it was phrased in Austrade’s 2016 Why Australia Benchmark Report, which noted that:
Australia is not only entering its 25th year of consecutive growth, the country is expected to realise annual real GDP growth of 2.9% between 2016 and 2020 – the fastest of any major advanced economy in the world.
<h2>The only country in the world?</h2>
As the minister’s spokesman said, Ciobo accidentally omitted the word “developed” from his statement.
It is true that all of the other 33 member countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have had a period of negative GDP growth since 1991, with most going into recession during the Global Financial Crisis.
It is notable that the dip in growth during the GFC was smaller for the Group of 20 (G20) major economies than for the OECD, and the reason for this is that many emerging markets did not go into recession.
It is not true to say, as the minister accidentally did, that Australia is the only country in the world with a period of growth that long. The chart below shows Australia’s growth next to the G20, OECD, India and China.
<a href="/images/2016/06/06/image-20160531-13810-hgnto5.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/06/image-20160531-13810-hgnto5.png" alt="">
<h4>Author provided. Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators and Emerging Markets database in DX database.</h4>
The chart shows that China and India, the two most important emerging economies, also have had positive growth in GDP in the past 25 years. It is now more than 25 years since both countries began their economic reform programs, and both countries have enjoyed very strong economic growth over this period.
<h2>Verdict</h2>
The statement that Australia has had 25 years of continuous economic growth is mostly correct.
The statement that Australia is the only country in the world to have had such a period of unbroken growth is incorrect. But it’s true Australia is the only one out of 34 OECD member countries to have had positive economic growth since 1991.  
Mark Crosby is associate professor of Economics, Melbourne Business School and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-crosby-444" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Has Australia had 25 years of continuous economic growth?

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board minutes make it clear that policymakers are waiting on more timely economic data to gauge how the economy is tracking. 
However the minutes have also set the scene for next week inflation data and the subsequent May 3 Board meeting – highlighting potential triggers for an interest rate cut.
What makes the prospect of another rate cut a possibility in coming months is the discussion on the Australian dollar. Board members noted that the rising Australian dollar might “complicate ” the economic recovery –essentially hamper the rebalancing efforts “towards non-mining sectors of the economy ”.
A super low inflation result would pave the way for the Reserve Bank to cut rates again. However it would need to feel confident that a rate cut would have the desired impact in driving the Aussie dollar lower. Most central banks that have eased monetary policy in the past few months have seen their currency continue to strength. In addition it is difficult to justify another rate cut in light of unemployment falling to a 2ó-year low. No doubt if a slowdown due to the Federal election took place it could just tip the balance towards a rate cut.
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<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%204.03.00%20PM.png" alt="">
Consumer confidence rose for the first time in five weeks. The Aussie dollar is holding near US77 cents; interest rates are stable; and petrol prices are low. However the deciding factor for the decent lift in confidence last week would have to be the upbeat employment data last week and the rally in sharemarkets.
Unemployment fell to a 2ó-year low, while the ASX 200 index rose by 4.5 per cent – marking the strongest weekly rally since October last year.
The good news for retailers is that consumers are seemingly looking forward to the next year with a healthy level of optimism.
Consumers continue to believe it is a good time to buy a car, fridge, washing machine or television. The estimate of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was at the best levels in since early January. Certainly retailers don’t seem to be  in a rush to lift prices, so affordability is good.
It may be that the looming discussion of a potential July 3 Federal election will dampen confidence levels in the next few months. In fact Qantas announced that the upcoming Federal election had resulted in “some softness in demand”. However the fundamentals are still sound.
What do the figures show?
Consumer confidence
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating  rose by 3.8 points (3.4 per cent) to 115.8 in the week to April 17. Confidence is up 6.4 per cent over the year and above the average of 112.1 since 2014. Four of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up  from +3 to +7;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down  from +29 to +26;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up  from -6 to +1;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up  from +3 to +9;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up  from +31 points to +36 points.
The key quotes from the Board minutes:
International conditions: “Indicators of global economic activity had eased a little over recent months, but were still consistent with growth in Australia's major trading partners remaining at a slightly below-average pace in the March quarter.” … “Members observed that these measures had been particularly weak for the Asian region.”
Domestic economy: “More recent data had suggested that the Australian economy had continued to grow at a moderate pace in early 2016 and that activity had continued to rebalance towards the non-mining sectors of the economy.”
Australian dollar:  “The Australian dollar had appreciated by almost 7 per cent against the US dollar over the past month. It had appreciated by 4 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, reflecting stronger domestic economic data, the rise in commodity prices and the fact that the renminbi (which has the highest weight in the trade-weighted basket) had depreciated by only slightly less against the Australian dollar than had the US dollar. At the time of the meeting, the Australian dollar was around its highest level since mid 2015.”...
“Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy”.
Monetary policy:  “Members judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. New information would allow the Board to reassess the outlook for inflation and decide whether the improvement in labour market conditions evident last year was continuing. Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease monetary policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%204.08.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%204.08.27%20PM.png" alt="">
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings. What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec doesn’t expect any change in the cash rate for the foreseeable future. Underlying inflation remains at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band but should lift over 2016.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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RBA concerned by rising Aussie dollar: CBA's Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s global cities are a very large part of the nation’s economic success, but they are also generating significantly unequal incomes. 
Our recent research found that as Australian cities have grown, their income inequality has increased.
Cities provide many social and cultural opportunities and allow large numbers of people to stay connected. But bigger is better only if we can make it better for everyone.
We propose a solution: rather than concentrate activity around a single city centre, we need to develop multiple centres of activity – polycentric cities.
How are city size and incomes related?
Large cities, particularly global cities, are great sources of wealth and income generation. Their impacts on inequality, though, are less positive.
Much recent research has focused on measuring the relationship between city size and income and wealth generation. Various studies show that as cities increase in size, income and wealth grow “superlinearly”. This means that if the city size grows by 10 percent, income and wealth generation grow by more than 10%.
The benefits of large cities to the economy overall are well recognised. The most significant economic engines of many countries are one or two of the largest cities – think New York for the US, London for the UK, Sydney and Melbourne for Australia.
Large cities may be where growth and wealth are concentrated. And, by inference, average quality of life is improved. But the uneven distribution of wealth among residents is of concern.
A reasonable question might be whether cities, which many regard as humankind’s greatest invention, are machines for concentrating wealth inequitably. Is there any relationship between city size and income distribution?
We investigated this relationship across the entire spectrum of Australian cities. Using income distribution data from the 2011 Census across all the 101 significant urban areas, or “cities”, we did find a superlinear relationship. That is, overall, as city populations increased, total income did increase by more than the rate of population growth.
Bigger is better for the rich
We also analysed the proportion of households in different income bands. This analysis showed that while income growth increased as Australian cities got larger, this was concentrated in the upper income categories.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics defines ten income categories, ranging from lowest to highest incomes per capita, with people counts in each category. We found that incomes of poor and middle-income categories grow in proportion with city size, or more slowly. Those of the higher-income categories grow disproportionately faster.
Every citizen should be concerned about this trend. If total incomes and the incomes of top earners grow faster than city size, but not those of lower income earners, then most of the income that makes bigger cities richer is only going to the top earners.
Why do cities concentrate wealth?
This is probably not a surprising finding. Large cities attract many economic activities, particularly those in financial services, that can generate very large incomes. However, it highlights an issue that has received increasing attention in recent years – the significant increases in inequality in many Western economies.
While our research was largely a data-driven exercise, it does help us think about what might be some of the sources of inequality in our cities and the geography of that inequality. What policy response might help to counter this characteristic of increased city size?
The agglomeration and spillover effects of clustering related businesses, particularly finance and business service and “knowledge workers”, is well recognised, but these beneficial effects are indeed highly concentrated. An extensive global review of agglomeration in 2014 noted that “agglomeration economies do not spill over much space”.
How do we spread the benefits?
As big cities like Sydney and Melbourne expand, it will be very important to establish and support clusters of activity away from the principal city centre. Polycentric cities are more likely to achieve more equitable access to higher-paying jobs.
Additionally, it will be important to establish spatial policies that support a mix of higher, middle and lower-income jobs in business districts to prevent the agglomeration of the super-rich in pockets of the city.
This has implications for establishing housing market stability (encouraging a good spatial mix of all housing types in the vicinity) and efficient commuting (middle-income or poorer people not needing to travel long distances for work).
This has been a strategic planning objective for decades. Yet only now, in Sydney’s case, does the city’s economic geography have the potential to be significantly rebalanced. One example would be the development of a new airport in western Sydney.
Proximity to the airport is likely to stimulate investment in other economic activities. Population demand itself combined with the development of the “second city” of Parramatta, which is now capitalising on its geographic centrality, and will become more pronounced as the west develops.
The development of a “third city” centred on the airport, but building on a network of existing centres, has the potential to significantly change the distribution, accessibility and types of employment across the city.
Housing policy has a critical role to play
If we want to tackle inequality in our cities, housing is a very good place to start.
As city housing markets become more expensive, households on lower and moderate incomes spend an increasing proportion of their incomes on housing. The number of locations where they can live in the city becomes smaller, especially when certain pockets show agglomerations of super-rich.
The costs of housing mean the amount of spare income those on moderate and low incomes can invest in themselves and their children to improve their employment prospects (what economists call investing in human capital) becomes smaller. The educational outcomes for their children are often poor. Also, because of rising transport costs, the number of potential jobs they can access gets smaller.
This is why developing polycentricity is so critical.
To reduce inequalities in cities, it is also important that we spread affordable housing out across the city. Proposed inclusionary zoning provisions in the new Sydney District Plans, while modest, are a good first step.
Whether such measures will be sufficient to counter the inherent tendency for income inequality to increase non-linearly as city size grows remains to be seen.
Economic processes will take their own course: generally the larger the agglomeration, the higher the probability of further growth. However, recognising and reducing spatial inequality and changing the economic geography of the city should be planning’s role.
And finally, there is the question of city size distributions, and focusing on the growth of regional and smaller cities, instead of putting every cent of focus on our biggest cities. These are, clearly, very long-term goals in the current environment.
 
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank">SOMWRITA SARKAR </a>is senior lecturer in Design and Computation, University of Sydney  
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank"></a>
<a href="https://donate.theconversation.com/au?utm_source=theconversation.com&amp;utm_medium=website&amp;utm_campaign=friend_of_the_conversation_badge" target="_blank">PETER PHIBBS </a>is chair of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roderick-simpson-320302" target="_blank">RODERICK SIMPSON</a> is associate professor of Urban Design, University of Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank"></a>
All are authors for The Conversation.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/somwrita-sarkar-320241" target="_blank"> </a>
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Our big cities are engines of inequality, so how do we fix that?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We have revised our growth forecasts in 2020 and 2021 to reflect a more resilient consumer and labour market - particularly in Victoria.
We have revised our growth forecasts for the Australian economy in 2020 from minus 4.7% to minus 3.5%.
Forecast growth in the September quarter has been increased from flat to 1.8% while growth in the December quarter is revised down from 2.8% to 2.2%.
For 2021 we have revised down growth from 3.0% to 2.5%.
The unemployment rate that was expected to reach 8.5% by the end of 2020 has been lowered to 7.8%; while the forecast end 2021 rate has been held around 7.5%.
The GDP Report this week signalled that the Australian economy had contracted by a record 7% in the June quarter. Consumption contracted by a spectacular 12.1% and hours worked fell by 9.8%. The fall in consumption explained 98% of the overall reduction in activity.
Despite that collapse in hours worked total nominal wage income “only” fell by 2.5% and total nominal household income actually rose by 2.2%.
With a sharp fall in spending and an actual increase in incomes the savings rate rose to 19.8% from 6.0%, highlighting the significant improvement in household balance sheets which would be consistent with considerable pent up demand to spend.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Optimistic revision of economic growth forecasts: Bill Evans

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India was the flavour at this year’s edition of the World Economic Forum, says JLL India’s head Anuj Puri in his JLL blog.
“In the play of global expectations unfolding on a stage staggering with actors who may just be guessing at their lines, India has a very complicated role to play,” he says.
The tone was set on Day 1 of the meet, with the Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley saying India’s GDP could potentially grow to 9%, provided the country gets a facilitating global economic environment to operate. 
 “A clear takeaway is that we are the fastest growing amongst the emerging markets – as a consequence, the ‘I’ in BRICS now signifies hope for the world,” he writes.
There was general affirmation that there is no risk of a repeat of ‘2008’; however, there is no ignoring the economic and financial challenges currently in the global ecosystem. There was a lot of rumbling about the inherent risk from China, and the repercussions of a hard landing.
The US market is still a mixed bag – given the general impression that it is back on a growth curve, he says. Then there are geopolitical risks arising from the Middle East which threaten to derail.
On the brighter side, lower oil and commodity prices has been a boon, so to say. “The current low oil prices are good for the seven billion people that our blue planet supports,” he writes.
The IMF estimates that the world economy’s GDP growth is 3.1% in 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. It’s growth nevertheless.
Among the others, India is the flavour of today and will likely see 7.5% growth, provided its politicians roll out ground-altering reforms at the expected pace, he adds. Russia and Brazil have lost out in the popularity sweepstakes because of their domestic issues.
Puri says there is a consensus that India’s exciting entrepreneurial ecosystem is expanding, leading to more entrepreneurs and tech start-ups, but that India will miss the bus again if it does not harness this entrepreneurial energy.
He dispels rumours of the Great Indian Start-up Boom beginning to lose some of its decibels, saying it is normal churn, even citing Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University.
Roubini said that if there was any place in the world where he would prefer to gestate a start-up, India comes a close second after Silicon Valley.
Puri also addresses the larger question about the implications of a fourth industrial revolution on emerging markets? Will it bridge the gap between developed and developing countries? Will India’s demographics be able to adapt to increased automation, and how will its manufacturing evolve?
He cites Colin Dyer’s words that technology will make strong and established businesses even stronger, as we embrace the change. We are just at the cusp of the ‘E-evolution’, he says. 
“I hope it’s only for the better, but we hold a massive and unpredictable tiger by its digital tail,” Puri writes.
In the Indian context, all its industries, including the semi-opaque real estate, will mature into more transparent ones with cutting-edge technology.
In imagining India as the world’s next growth engine, Puri draws parallels with the Gauls, immortalized by Goscinny and Uderzo in the Asterix comics. 
“The village druid Getafix had a magic potion which could instantly infuse superhuman strength. The magic potion India needs today is the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill. Will this magic fix be served up in the upcoming Union Budget? I certainly hope so.”
Also, the change in the constitution of the Upper House will help the government to implement other important bills too, such as the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill and the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act.
Puri says the overall mood was upbeat, but it could have more to do with “humankind’s undying pursuit of optimism”. 
The first three weeks of 2016 have been a pretty miserable start: the US is slowing down, and the chase to the White House this year may slow them down even more; stock markets are currently overreacting to China, even though we may be headed for a softer landing than expected. But China will need to transition from industrial to services and exports to consumption if it is to reclaim its former glory.
The European Union remains a major area of concern, and JLL’s Christian Ulbrich leaves with a few more furrows to his brow, he writes. The EU definitely has its hands full with the challenges of Brexit and the refugee crisis. George Osborne’s remark that ‘UK wants to be in EU but not run by it’ may be a sign of things to come. 
India, however, remains a bright spot, according to the IMF. It has achieved escape velocity from the BRICs bloc and is off on its own growth trajectory, he concludes.
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The ‘I’ in BRICS implies hope for India's growth potential

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Economic growth predicted in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index is stuck below trend, with growth in the Australian economy in the first half of 2016 under expectations.
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The Index, which predicts the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, decreased from –0.13% in October to –0.21% in November. 
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Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said components of the Index which have contributed to the slowdown are: ASX 200 (–0.38 percentage points); dwelling approvals (–0.13 ppt’s); yield spread (–0.37 ppt’s); and aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.17 ppt’s). 
"This result is a little disappointing. In the two previous months we had seen some modest improvement in the growth rate raising hopes that growth in the Leading Index might exceed trend by year’s end," he said.
"Unfortunately, the set-back in this result leads us to the more general conclusion that growth in the Leading Index remains stuck below trend. The growth rate has now been below trend for the last five months.  
"Recall that both Treasury and the Reserve Bank are now assessing trend (or potential) growth at 2.75%. Westpac’s current forecast for 2016 entails an annual growth pace in the first half of 2016 of 2.75% (trend). The signal from the Leading Index indicates that our forecast may be somewhat optimistic. "
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Leading Index growth rate slows: Westpac

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<div class="section">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="section">The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.1 percent in November from 102.4 in October to 101.3 in November. <div class="layoutArea">
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The Index continues to hold in a very tight band. Over the last six months the Index has held within the range of 99.1 to 102.4. 
However if you compare the average level during this period with the average over the comparable six month period in 2015 there has been a clear lift in the Index of 4.7 percent. Most of that improvement has been in the components of the Index that measure expectations which are up by an average of 7.3 percent on last year, whereas the components which measure current conditions have increased by only 1.2 percent. 
Developments of note over the month have included weakness in the share market as investors dealt with the uncertainties around the US election (ASX down by 4.4 percent since the October survey); a spectacular surge in coking coal prices (spot prices are up around 150 percent since August); a disappointing jobs report (annual employment growth slowing to 1.4 percent); and an unchanged rate decision from the Reserve Bank. 
Markets had been giving a decent chance to a November rate cut in earlier months so the fall in confidence amongst respondents holding a mortgage of 3.1 percent was somewhat understandable.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-18%20at%2011.29.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-18%20at%2011.29.47%20AM.png" alt="">
Although down 3.4 percent in the latest month the lift in confidence in Queensland – the ‘Sunshine and Coal’ state – over the year has been spectacular. The Queensland index has lifted by 15.9 percent since last November compared to falls in the other major states – NSW (–2.6 percent); Victoria (–5.4 percent) and WA (–7.2 percent).
Disappointment in the jobs market has been signalled in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations. The Index rose by 1.4 percent from 138.2 to 140.2. It is now up by 2.9 percent over the last six months and slightly above the level a year ago. Recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months and hence mark a deterioration.
Four of the five components of the Index fell slightly in the month. Both measures of family finances were down a little – the sub- index tracking views on ‘family finances compared to year ago’ fell by 1.3 percent while the sub-index tracking expectations for finances over the next 12 months fell by 0.8 percent. ‘Economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 0.6 percent but ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 1.4 percent.
In a slight disappointment for the outlook for Xmas spending there was a 2.4 percent fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index.
In November we traditionally gauge respondents’ Christmas spending intentions. The question is “Do you think that you will spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts compared to last year?” Last year we recorded a net balance – the proportion expecting to spend more minus the proportion expecting to spend less – of minus 13 percent. This year the net balance has declined to minus 20.1 percent. That is around the average since we started asking the question in 2009. That is a disappointing result given the promising improvement in spending plans in 2015.
Confidence in housing has also deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 5.1 percent from 105.7 in October to 100.3 in November. We saw significant falls in NSW; Victoria; and Queensland.
Despite confidence in housing deteriorating house price expectations continue to rise. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.3 percent to be up 23 percent on a year ago and reach its highest level since July 2015.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 6. There is little chance of any change in rates at this meeting. The key issue is whether the Bank decides to further cut rates in 2017. Whereas lower than expected inflation was the driver of the two cuts in 2016 the decisions in 2017 will be determined by developments in housing and labour markets.
Westpac is expecting economic growth and employment growth to lift in 2017 boosted by higher commodity prices; ongoing strong residential construction; and booming exports. While the pace of house price appreciation can be expected to slow the case for lower rates under those circumstances does not seem to be strong.
We expect rates to remain on hold in 2017. 
 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment dips a little, Christmas spending plans disappoint: Bill Evans

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Australians and businesses overwhelmingly think our country is a great place to live and have a business.
However, Australian consumers and businesses are anxious about what the future holds.
National Australia Bank (NAB) today released a new report which asks consumers and businesses to explore life, work and running a business in Australia – now and in the future.
“Nine in 10 Australians told us our country’s open spaces, people and lifestyle and access to affordable and quality healthcare are the biggest contributors to liveability and their choice to call Australia home,” NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said.
“There are some clear differences between states. Consumers in SA/NT are much more positive in relation to travel time, living costs and housing – and in Victoria, a love of sport means entertainment options feature more prominently for liveability than any other state.”
Businesses too are optimistic, with 8 in 10 (82%) surveyed viewing Australia as a great place to have a business.
“Australian business people see the economy, our close proximity and strong connections to Asia and the growing population as some of Australia’s key strengths,” Mr Oster said.
“Making the most of these strengths is vitally important for Australia, to support more growth opportunities for businesses and the millions of Australians they employ.”
But despite their current optimism, the report found only 1 in 2 people and 60% of businesses think Australia will be a great place to live and have a business in 10 years’ time.
“There is a clear message of anxiety in the future coming from Australian consumers and businesses,” Mr Oster said.
“Australians identified access to social welfare, living costs, tax levels, jobs and housing affordability as the key factors they expect will deteriorate the most in the next 10 years.
Consumers are saying they expect very little progress in the areas already holding Australia back now.
“While a person’s income didn’t affect current perceptions of liveability, there was a large future disconnect between high income earners (earning over $100,000) and those earning under $35,000 a year.”
Businesses are slightly more optimistic.
“Australian businesses expect the things that make our country great now to continue to make us great in the future – this includes our population, proximity to Asia and our innovative and entrepreneurial economy.”
“These insights on how Australians feel about our country may be able to help businesses and governments discover what we’re concerned about, and prompt discussion on how to tackle some of the big issues,” Mr Oster said
About 2,300 consumers and 500 businesses took part in the survey, and full findings can be viewed at news.nab.com.au
NAB Chairman Dr Ken Henry will be speaking about the research today in his address to the Centre for Economic Development.
You can find a full version of his speech at <a href="https://www.news.nab.com.au" target="_blank">news.nab.com.au</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Life in the lucky country: What makes Australia great?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Growth bounces back (again)
After another (weather related) soft patch in the March quarter, Australian economic growth bounced back in the June quarter with quarterly growth of 0.8%, up from 0.3%. However, annual growth is still subdued at 1.8% year on year, which is well below potential of around 2.75%.
In the quarter, growth was helped by a pick-up in consumer spending and business investment, strong public investment and a contribution from net exports after a detraction in the March quarter. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.35.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.35.03%20AM.png" alt="">
Australia continues to defy the doomsters’ endless recession calls. Against this, economic and underlying profit growth is lagging that seen in major economies. However, there are some positives pointing to a pick-up in growth.
Threats, risks and worries 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.36.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.36.39%20AM.png" alt="">
Putting global threats aside, Australia’s worry list is well known:
Housing construction is starting to slow with falling approvals pointing to a further slowing (see next chart). 
Related to this, there is the risk of a house price crash “as seen” on Four Corners. However, there have been endless property crash calls since around 2004. In the absence of a stronger supply surge, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) making a mistake and raising rates too high and/or unemployment surging, our view is that a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne is likely, but not a crash.
Consumer spending is constrained by record low wages growth and high levels of underemployment. While consumer spending has been running faster than income growth, as rising wealth has allowed consumers to run down household savings (to now just 4.6%) this is unlikely to continue as the wealth effects flowing from property price gains in Sydney and Melbourne slow. Rapid power cost increases and high debt are also not helping. All of which is driving low consumer confidence.
Mining investment is still falling with business investment intentions pointing to another 22% fall this financial year.
The Australian dollar is up 16% from last year’s low and at around $US0.80 (and threatening to go higher) it is at risk of slowing growth (and investment) in trade-exposed sectors like tourism, agriculture and manufacturing.
Underlying inflation is too low and risks staying below target for longer due to record low wages growth, a rising $A, competitive pressures &amp; weak rents as new supply hits.
Our political leaders seem collectively unable to undertake productivity-enhancing economic reforms and take decisive action (eg, on energy policy). With the citizenship crisis threatening an early election, it’s unlikely we will see an improvement any time soon. 
Five reasons to expect growth to improve
These worries are well known and despite them we remain of the view that recession will be avoided and growth will pick up over the year ahead 
First, the growth drag from falling mining investment is nearly over. Mining investment peaked at nearly 7% of GDP four years ago and has since been falling at around 25% per annum (pa), knocking around 1.5% pa from GDP growth. At around 2% of GDP now, its weight in the economy has collapsed reducing its growth drag to around 0.4% this year and it’s near the bottom (see next chart). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.37.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.37.45%20AM.png" alt="">
Second, non-mining investment is likely to rise this year. Comparing corporate investment plans for this financial year with those made a year ago points to a decline in business investment this year of around 3.5% (see next chart). But this is the best it’s been since 2013 and once mining investment is excluded this turns into an 8% gain for non-mining investment.
Third, public investment is rising strongly, up 14.7% over the last year, reflecting state infrastructure spending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.39.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.39.22%20AM.png" alt="">
Fourthly, net exports are likely to continue adding to growth as the completion of resources projects boosts mining and energy export volumes and services sectors like tourism and higher education remain strong.
Finally, profits for listed companies are rising again after two years of falls. This is a positive for investment and the flow of dividends helps household incomes.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.40.33%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.40.33%20AM.png" alt="">
These considerations should ensure that the Australian economy continues to avoid recession and that growth should pick up to around a 2.5% to 3% pace over the year ahead. This should be enough to head off further cuts in the cash rate. But with growth still a bit below RBA forecasts, wages growth likely to pick up only slowly, inflation likely to remain subdued abstracting from higher electricity prices, and the RBA likely wanting to avoid pushing the $A higher, our view remains that the RBA will keep the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% out to the December quarter 2018 at least before starting to raise rates.
Implications for investors
There are several implications for Australian based investors. First, a return to reasonable growth is positive for growth assets. Australian shares are vulnerable to a short term US-led share market correction – given North Korean and Trump risks – but we remain of the view that it will be higher by year end.
Second, bank deposits are likely to provide poor returns for investors for a while yet, highlighting the case for yield-focussed investors to continue to look for superior sources of yield. The yield gap between Australian shares and bank deposits remains wide, driving a strong source of demand for shares. After Telstra cut its dividend, just make sure you get a well-diversified portfolio of stocks paying decent dividends though. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.41.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.41.38%20AM.png" alt="">
Third, while Australian shares are great for income, global shares are likely to remain outperformers for capital growth. In fact, global shares have been outperforming Australian shares since October 2009. This reflects relatively tighter monetary policy in Australia, the commodity slump, the lagged impact of the rise in the $A above parity in 2010, and a mean reversion of the 2000 to 2009 outperformance by Australian shares.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.42.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-07%20at%208.42.39%20AM.png" alt="">
 
And of course, abstracting from volatile resource company earnings, underlying profit growth at around 5-6% in Australia is well below that in the US (at around 11%) and Europe and Japan (at around 20-30%) so the underperformance of Australian shares may have a while to go yet. Which all argues for a continuing decent exposure to global shares relative to Australian shares. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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