Dwelling Starts

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<div>No data release seems to create quite as much confusion as the building activity figures.</div>
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<div>Construction work in the residential sector is always apparently either booming or crashing, depending on who you believe, or commonly it's both. </div>
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<div>Still, where there is discord may we bring harmony, by breaking it all down into three simple parts, starting with...</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Commencements ease back</span></strong></div>
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<div>Commencements fell again by 2.8 percent to 55,070 in the September 2016 quarter, following a 7.2 percent decline in the June quarter. </div>
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<div>Dwelling starts fell in most states, even in New South Wales where the appetite for building is strongest, although the 'trend' figures still show NSW arcing higher. </div>
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<div>Following on from sharp falls in unit and apartment approvals, it's no surprise that it was declines in this sector which have led the fall in commencements, particularly in Melbourne.</div>
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<div>This in part represents nervous developers backing away from flooding the apartment markets further, as well as a failure to secure pre-sales in some cases. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Completions</span></strong></div>
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<div>Despite the huge boom in building work done over recent times, completions still hadn't run too high by the end of September, with 51,070 completions in the quarter, split between 27,773 houses and 22,666 units. </div>
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<div class="separator">The main reason for this is simply that it takes considerably longer to build a block of apartments than it does a detached house. </div>
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<div>Despite this, apartment completions are starting to flow through in the most populous states, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland, although Victoria dropped back in the quarter as some developers reportedly moved into a "go slow" mode. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - The pipeline</span></strong></div>
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<div>The most important thing to note from this release is that although the appetite for commencing new developments has cooled substantially, there were still more than 221,000 dwellings under construction as at the end of Q3 2016, including more than 150,000 units, townhouses, and apartments. </div>
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<div>Although some small inroads had been made into the apartment construction pipeline, the bulk of multi-unit project completions had yet to hit the market. </div>
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<div>Given the sheer scale of the pipeline, perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise than an unprecedented number of approvals have not yet seen a shovel lifted in anger, with 42,591 approvals sitting in housing market Limboland.</div>
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<div>Of course, there will always be some approvals waiting in this phase, yet 42,500 is just way, way above the historic norm. These are not normal times! </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>Overall, the market does seem to be correcting itself gradually with developers pulling back on new project commencements, and slowing the rate of completions in some cases to allow capital city population growth to play catch up.</div>
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<div>What the figures do show is that the full impact of the high rise boom had barely even begun to take shape by September 2016, so watch out for weakening apartment rents and and prices as 2017 rolls on. </div>
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<div>The value of residential work done in Q3 declined, contributing to an awful negative GDP print for the quarter, and the sector is likely to become a headwind for the economy as the year progresses. </div>
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<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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High rise boom has barely begun so watch out for weakening apartment rents and and prices in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<p>Building activity data for the June 2017 quarter was published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier this week. The data contains additional insight to the housing construction sector, tracking quarterly dwelling commencements, completions and counts of dwellings under construction. The data is showing a softening in commencements as approvals have slowed but still heightened levels of completions and dwellings under construction. </p>
<h3>Dwelling commencements</h3>
<p>Over the June 2017 quarter, seasonally adjusted data showed that 28,087 new houses and 24,380 new units commenced construction nationally.  The number of houses commenced was 3.3% higher over the quarter but -7.1% lower than a year earlier while unit commencements were down -0.8% over the quarter and -6.6% lower over the year.  <br> <br>Year-on-year new house commencements were lower in each state and territory, recorded at: -3.5% in NSW, -7.2% in Vic, -3.1% in Qld, -10.6% in SA, -12.2% in WA, -7.0% in Tas, -29.1% in NT and -37.9% in ACT.<br> <br>Year-on-year new unit commencements were higher in NSW (3.3%), Vic (3.2%), SA (35.0%) and Tas (153.1%) and they were lower in Qld (-30.4%), WA (-40.5%), NT (-40.9%) and ACT (-17.7%).</p>
<p>Commencements for houses picked up over the quarter but are lower across all regions over the year.  Meanwhile unit commencements are trending lower in most states and territories with notable exception of NSW, Vic and Tas.  NSW and Vic have been home to the two strongest housing markets over recent years (Sydney and Melbourne) and are seeing the largest increases in population fuelling housing demand.  Meanwhile, dwelling values in Tasmania’s largest city (Hobart) are rising at the fastest rate of any capital city while stock levels are very low so it seems a supply response is occurring.</p>
<h3>Dwelling completions</h3>
<p>Seasonally adjusted data nationally shows that over the June quarter there were 28,251 houses and 25,090 units completed nationally.  Interestingly these figures are fairly closely aligned to commencements so what was completed was effectively replaced as having started construction.  Over the quarter, new house completions were down -1.2% and new unit completions were -10.2% lower.  Year-on-year new house completions were -9.0% lower and new unit completions were down -5.2%.<br> <br>State and territory data which isn’t seasonally adjusted shows that year-on-year, new house completions rose in NSW (8.6%), Qld (18.3%) and ACT (73.3%) while completions were lower in Vic (-12.8%), SA (-3.7%), WA (-45.3%), Tas (-29.8%) and NT (-44.2%).<br> <br>New unit completions increased over the year in Vic (11.1%), Qld (13.7%) and ACT (29.6%) and were lower in NSW (-20.4%), SA (-41.6%), WA (-22.3%), Tas (-40.0%) and NT (-69.9%)</p>
<p>Completions remain at high levels however, they have eased back a little.  Given that there remains a high volume of stock under construction (as we will analyse shortly) it’s anticipated that completions are likely to remain elevated for some time.</p>
<h3>Dwellings under construction</h3>
<p>At the end of the June 2017 quarter, there were 216,242 dwellings under construction nationally.  Although the number of dwellings under construction is down from its historic high of 224,314 in September 2016, it is still at an extremely elevated level.  As a comparison, the long-term average number of dwellings under construction at the end of a quarter is 106,774 and even over the past 10 years the average has been recorded at 153,545.  In June 2017, there were 62,409 new houses and 151,510 new units under construction nationally.  Again, both are well above the long-run averages of 48,329 and 38,964 respectively.<br> <br>Looking at the data across the states, at the end of the quarter the number of new houses under construction was recorded at: 17,845 in NSW, 21,401 in Vic, 8,605 in Qld, 4,726 in SA, 7,669 in WA, 1,227 in Tas, 276 in NT and 660 in ACT.  By comparison, the long-term average number of houses under construction across the states is recorded at: 13,566 in NSW, 15,186 in Vic, 7,250 in Qld, 3,681 in SA, 7,455 in WA, 1,548 in Tas, 544 in NT and 938 in ACT.  All states and territories except for Tas, NT and ACT currently have more new houses under construction than the long-term average.<br> <br>The number of new units under construction is where there is generally a substantial deviation from the long-term average.  Across the states, at the end of the June 2017 quarter the number of new units under construction was recorded at: 64,470 in NSW, 43,240 in Vic, 27,420 in Qld, 4,230 in SA, 6,360 in WA, 391 in Tas, 495 in NT and 4,904 in ACT.  Tas is the only state or territory with fewer new units currently under construction than its long-term average which is recorded at 431.  Across the remaining states, the long term average number of new units under construction is: 17,162 in NSW, 10,854 in Vic, 7,897 in Qld, 1,955 in SA, 3,382 in WA, 445 in NT and 1,235 in ACT.  The current number of new units under construction in NSW (+276%), Vic (+298%), Qld (+247%), SA (+116%) and ACT (+297%) is well in excess of double the long-term average.</p>
<p>The volume of new housing stock under construction remains at dizzying heights, albeit not quite as high as a few quarters ago.  The surge in stock under construction is being driven by units which by nature take longer to build and deliver more stock in a single project than houses. Interestingly, the number of units under construction has slowed in Vic and Qld but continues to climb in NSW.  This is probably to do with the fact that many property purchasers in NSW can simply no longer afford houses (particularly in Sydney) so units become their only housing purchase option. </p>
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>Although dwelling approvals have eased from their record high levels, over recent months they have been fairly steady.  They seem to have settled at a level which is well above long-term average levels.  While this means that commencements won’t be as strong going forward they are likely to remain high relative to historic levels.  There is a significant number of new dwellings (particularly units) under construction which means that completions are likely to remain elevated for some time. Once they do fall we would expect them to stabilise at a level well above the long-term average.  With the national population increasing rapidly, these people need to be housed so although housing construction is unlikely to remain as strong as it has been recently, we do expect that a substantial volume of housing construction is likely to continue to take place.</p>
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Pipeline of housing stock has peaked but pending supply remains well above long term average levels

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New South Wales top for dwelling starts: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 0.1 percent in January to 97.4. The confidence index is up 0.1 percent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Dwelling starts: Starts fell by 2.8 percent in the September quarter after falling by 7.2 percent in the June quarter. Building work done fell by 5.5 percent in the quarter to be up 1.4 percent on the year.</p>
<p>As at the September quarter, a record 218,297 homes were being built, up 12.1 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>In the year to September, dwelling starts were at record highs in NSW (70,326) and 79 percent above the decade average. In Queensland starts were at 21-year highs (49,939) and 36 percent above decade averages.</p>
<p>The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. Building &amp; building material companies are affected by dwelling starts including Boral, James Hardie, Adelaide Brighton, Brickworks, AV Jennings Limited, Devine Limited and Beacon Lighting.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>The latest monthly reading on consumer sentiment suggests consumers are non-plussed about life. But the more timely Roy Morgan weekly survey suggest consumers are super chipper about the current environment. In addition the monthly consumer sentiment reading suggests that sentiment lifted by between 1.9 percent and 7.4 percent across the major capital cities, yet the overall reading only lifted by a sedate 0.1 percent. </p>
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<p>So just how are consumers faring? The outcome is likely to be somewhere in the middle. Consumers are modestly upbeat and more importantly household finances remain in good shape. Interestingly the weekly and monthly consumer sentiment readings seem to agree on one key point - the measure on whether it is a good time to purchase a major household item? Well, it seems there is no time like the present, with both readings recording a four or five-month high.</p>
<p>Looking forward, a potential dampener to sentiment is likely to be the lift in petrol prices. However the stronger Australian dollar should help to offset that in coming weeks. The ongoing strength in sharemarkets should provide a degree of support to household confidence. Interestingly the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item remains upbeat despite the latest fall.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Consumer confidence</p>
<p>The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence rose by 0.1 percent in January to 97.4. The confidence index is up 0.1 percent on a year ago.</p>
<p>The current conditions index fell by 0.5 percent while the expectations index rose by 0.5 percent.</p>
<p>Three of the five components of the index rose in January:</p>
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<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down by 7.6 percent; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up by 0.3 percent;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up by 2.5 percent;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down by 1.4 percent;</li>
<li>The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up by 4.9 percent.</li>
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<p>Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 102.9, up 5.2 percent) were still more optimistic than Women (99.6, up 2.8 percent). The sentiment index for young people fell by 0.6 percent to 119.3 in January. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 99.3, down by 1.3 percent); 45 years plus (index 98.3, up by 9.5 percent). </p>
<p>Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? The index was down 2 percent in the month to 100.9 and was down by 10.7 percent over the year.</p>
<p>States: NSW (103.8, up by 2.7 percent); Victoria (index 103.7, up 5.7 percent); Queensland (99.6, up 3.2 percent); Western Australia (95.2, up 7.4 per cent); South Australia (92.8, up 1.9 percent).</p>
<p>Dwelling starts</p>
<p>Dwelling starts (commencements) fell by 2.8 percent in the September quarter after falling by 7.2 percent in the June quarter. House approvals fell by 1.8 per cent and apartments fell by 0.7 percent. Work started on 229,295 new dwellings over the year to September, easing further from the record high of 232,018 dwellings in the year to March.</p>
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<p>Across Australia, starts in the September quarter fell in six states/territories: NSW (up by 5.8 percent); Victoria (down by 9.6 percent); Queensland (up by 6.3 percent); South Australia (down by 20 percent); Western Australia (down by 13.6 percent); Tasmania (down by 0.6 percent); Northern Territory (down by 7.6 percent); and the ACT (down 39.6 percent).</p>
<p>In the year to September, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in all the states &amp; territories except for South Australia (down 1 percent), Western Australia (down 3.5 percent), Tasmania (down 15 percent) and Northern Territory (down 12.6 percent). Starts were at record highs in NSW (70,326) and 79 percent above the decade average. In Queensland starts were at 21 year highs (49,939) and 36 percent above decade averages.</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases data on dwelling commencements (starts) each quarter. The figures provide guidance on future construction activity. If construction begins on new houses or apartments, it signifies work for building trades.</p>
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<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p><span> </span><span>There are a few headwinds for consumer confidence. No doubt the lift in oil prices and the resulting lift in petrol prices does have a direct impact on household budgets. In addition, the ongoing rebalancing of the Australian economy away from mining to housing and uncertainty about future housing supply in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane will occupy policymaker discussions in coming months. Overall the Reserve Bank is comfortably on the sidelines looking to see how the economy evolves over the early part of 2017. </span></p>
<p><span><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></p>
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