Cyclone Debbie

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It’s been two weeks since the category four cyclone, Cyclone Debbie, struck the east coast of Queensland, causing widespread destruction to homes, businesses and the environment.</p>
<p>Hamilton Island faces a five month rebuild following destruction to private homes, luxury hotels and yachts. Across Airlie Beach and Proserpine, roofs were ripped from houses, power lines blown down and trees littered the roads, while Bowen suffered flash flooding and severe agricultural crop damage. </p>
<p>The natural disaster has now been declared a catastrophe, with the damage expected to cost more than $1 billion. </p>
<p>To view interactive images of the destruction, click on the links below.</p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/3ACS4VR" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.49.43%20AM.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/3ACS4VR" target="_blank">Hamilton Island</a> above (boats washed on shore near the marina) </p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/B2HVTXH" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.51.17%20AM.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/B2HVTXH" target="_blank">Hamilton Island</a> above (roofs ripped off) </p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/FVZ5B1C" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.52.08%20AM.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/FVZ5B1C" target="_blank">Hamilton Island</a> above  (tennis court destroyed) </p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/IRPBVXH" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.53.07%20AM.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/IRPBVXH" target="_blank">Hamilton Island</a> above (damage to the shopping mall pool)</p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/LJTTUKV" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-12%20at%208.53.55%20AM.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><a href="https://inlapse.com.au/m/l/LJTTUKV" target="_blank">Mackay</a> above (river banks flooded)</p>
<p>Nearmap captures, manages, and delivers the most frequently updated location content in Australia to transform how emergency services, government agencies and businesses work by letting them see what is on the ground now, in high resolution, and how it has changed over time.</p>
<p>It’s truly devastating to see the impact Cyclone Debbie has had on communities and businesses across Queensland.</p>
<p>Our high resolution aerial images reveal the true extent of the damage from above, and we hope will prove to be a useful tool to help Queensland communities, insurance companies and the local government as they plan for cleanup and recovery. </p>
<p><em>Rob Newman, is chief executive officer, Nearmap, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.nearmap.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Cyclone Debbie aftermath: aerial imagery reveals destruction 

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<p>It is not an easy exercise to calculate the costs of natural disasters like cyclones and floods or the broader economic impact.</p>
<p>But there is a general course of events. Natural disasters result in damage to property and infrastructure and interrupt and delay spending and production.</p>
<p>Some of the costs are recouped from insurers, governments, charities or private organisations.</p>
<p>Depending on the size of the event, share prices of insurers, transport operators and miners may fall, negatively affecting shareholders. Insurers may seek to lift premiums if insurance payouts are high, affecting other policyholders. While economic activity falls when natural disasters hit, rebuilding work serves to boost economies in ensuring weeks and months.</p>
<p>Cyclone Debbie crossed the north Queensland coast on March 28 as a Category four system at Airlie Beach in Queensland near Bowen and Mackay. The cyclone was then downgraded, eventually to a tropical low, moving south-west and then south east to the Gold Coast and northern NSW.</p>
<p> The Insurance Council declared a catastrophe for damage caused by Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie and then extended the catastrophe declaration for northern NSW for flooding caused by the cyclone.</p>
<p>The high rainfall continues to flow through river systems, creating the risk of further flooding. Rockhampton is currently bracing for flooding either late on April 5 or April 6.</p>
<p>Clearly no price can be placed on the tragic loss of life caused by the floods. How will the cyclone and floods affect the economy?</p>
<p>Cyclone Debbie and resultant floods have damaged vegetable and sugar cane crops, residential and commercial property, farms, transport infrastructure, tourism facilities and delayed coal and beef production.</p>
<p>The broader economic impact of the cyclone and floods should be limited as they hit late in the first quarter and early in the second quarter. The main question is how quickly coal production resumes. A prolonged delay would negatively affect June quarter economic growth although this will be offset by repair and rebuilding work later in the quarter and coming quarters. </p>
<p>Coal transport: Rail operator Aurizon said the Blackwater system will re-open later this week. The Newlands rail system will re-open in 2-3 weeks. The Goonyella rail system may re-open in 5 weeks. The West Moreton system has re-opened. The Moura rail system may re-open in 2 weeks.</p>
<p>QCoal has declared force majeure on two coal shipments due to load this week due to the rail disruptions. Force majeure is defined as an “act of God” or “unforeseeable circumstances” that prevent a contract being fulfilled. Jellinbah Group and Yancoal are also amongst those that have declared force majeure on shipments.</p>
<p> Insurance impact: The Insurance Council says the “level of catastrophe has not been seen since ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald in 2014, when storms and flooding affected large parts of Queensland and NSW and caused insurance losses of almost $1.2 billion.” </p>
<p>Vegetables: The National Farmers Federation has cited industry groups estimating damage to crops of up to $1 billion. Prices for a raft of vegetables will rise considerably in coming months.</p>
<p>Beneficial rainfall: Many parts of inland Queensland received favourable rains, including beef properties around Rockhampton and Moura. Before the floods around 80 percent of Queensland was drought declared.</p>
<p>Queensland property: About 600 residences throughout northern parts of the state have been ruled uninhabitable since Cyclone Debbie hit the coast on Tuesday. The Courier Mail has reported that 76 residences are deemed uninhabitable in the southeast, although the indications are this is likely to go up by 250-300 in coming days.</p>
<p>State &amp; territory assistance: Concessional loans and grants have been provided by state and commonwealth governments to primary producers, individuals and businesses. Financial assistance is also being made available to local government authorities to restore damaged essential public infrastructure.</p>
<p>A Disaster Recovery Payment is administered through Centrelink and provides $1000 per adult and $400 per child for people with damaged homes</p>
<p>NSW impact: Disaster zones were declared in the Tweed, Lismore, Byron, Richmond Valley, Kyogle and Ballina local government areas.</p>
<p>Sugar: The peak body for Australian sugar growers, Canegrowers, has noted: “ With the harvest due to start in less than two months, surveys are indicating cane losses of up to 35 per cent in the Proserpine region ($50 million), 20 percent across the Mackay region ($81 million) and 20 percent in Plane Creek ($18 million).” It also notes that: “The mills and sugar terminals appear to have escaped serious damage. </p>
<p>Coking Coal: From CBAs Mining and Energy Commodities Strategist, Vivek Dhar: “BHP Billiton said almost all of its coking coal mines in Queensland were affected by Cyclone Debbie. These mines “have crews returning to work to begin dewatering and preparation for return to operations.” The South Walker Creek (around 2 per cent of global exports) was the exception. The company also said that “the Hay Point [port] terminal is ready to receive coal from the mines and can begin shipping operations once the harbor master provides clearance.” If the damage from Cyclone Debbie is limited mostly to the rail system, the resumption in Australian coking coal exports could be counted in weeks.”</p>
<p>“The repair estimates suggest that 13-17 million tonnes (Mt) of seaborne coking coal supply (around 4-6 percent of global exports) and 2-5Mt of seaborne thermal coal supply (around 0.2-0.5 percent of global exports) may be lost this year. Some of the lost volume will likely be mitigated by drawing down on port stockpiles and increased haulage rates through the remainder of 2017.”</p>
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<p> <span>Craig James is the chief economist at </span><a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a><span>. </span></p>
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The cost of Cyclone Debbie and catastrophic flooding

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75287/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>What happens after Cyclone Debbie is a familiar process. It has been repeated many times in cities around the world. The reason is that our cities are not designed for these types of events.</p>
<p>So we know what comes next. Queenslanders affected by Debbie will complain about the damage, the costs and the need for insurers to act now to compensate their losses. The state and federal governments will extensively discuss who is to blame. </p>
<p>The shambles will be cleared and life will eventually get back to normal. Billions of dollars will be spent on relocating people and on repairing the damage and public works. A state-level levy may even be necessary to pay for all the extra costs. Two storms, Katrina and Sandy, cost the United States more than US$200 billion between them. </p>
<p>Yet we know what cyclones do. They bring, for a relatively short time, huge gusty winds. These are inconvenient but have proven not too damaging. </p>
<p>The greatest risk comes from storm surge and rainfall. Both bring a huge amount of water. And all this water has to find a way to get out of our living environment. </p>
<p>Despite knowing, approximately, where cyclones tend to occur, we never thought about adjusting our cities to their effects. It would make a huge financial difference if we did. </p>
<p>So, what can we do to build our cities differently to ensure the impacts of cyclones – and the accompanying rainfall and storm surges – do not disrupt urban life? The answer to all of this is design. </p>
<p>The usual design of current cities and towns brought us problems in the first place. We need to fundamentally rethink the design of our built-up areas.</p>
<h2>Rethinking coastal and urban design</h2>
<p>It starts with coastal design. We are used to building dams and coastal protection against storm surges happening once in 100 years. For comparison, the protection standards in the low-lying Netherlands are designed to protect the country against a once-in-10,000-years flood. But nature has proven to be stronger than our artificial constructs can handle.</p>
<p>An alternative design approach is to rely on the natural coastal processes of land forming – such as reefs, islands, mangroves, beaches and dunes. Humans can help the formation of these natural protectors by providing the triggers for them to emerge. </p>
<p>As an example, when we put sand in front of the coast, the currents and waves will transport the sand towards the coast and build up new and larger beaches. This example is realised in front of the Dutch coast and is known as the sand engine. But nature will build them up to form a much stronger system than humans ever could. </p>
<p>Instead of coasts, beaches and real estate being washed away, new land and larger beaches may be formed as a result of these processes. This requires design thinking, insights into the resilience of the coastal system, and understanding of the natural forces at play.</p>
<p>Second, urban design should reconsider the way we build our cities. Most urban areas do not have the capacity to “welcome” lots of water. And it is about lots of water, not the average shower or two. </p>
<p>Until cyclones are gone, these enormous amounts of water need to be stored for a short period in dense urban areas. This goes beyond water-sensitive urban design.</p>
<p>Despite the benefits of water-sensitive design in many urban developments, when the going gets tough, this is just not enough. Water-sensitive urban design can barely cope with average rainfall peaks. So, in times of severe weather events, cities need to have additional spaces to store all this water.</p>
<p>The general rule here is to store every raindrop as long as possible where it falls.</p>
<h2>How and where should we redesign our cities?</h2>
<p>So, what can be done to cyclone-proof our cities? We can:</p>
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<p>Create larger green spaces, which are connected in a natural grid, increase the capacity of these green systems by adding eco-zones and wetlands, and redesign river and creek edges. Remove the concrete basins from every creek in the city.</p>
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<p>Use large public spaces, such as parking spaces near shopping centres, ovals and football pitches, for temporarily capturing and storing excess rainwater. Small adjustments at the edges of these places are generally enough to capture the water.</p>
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<p>Turn parking garages into temporary storage basins.</p>
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<p>Redesign street profiles and introduce green and water-zones in streets. Out of every three-lane street, one lane can be transformed into a green lane, which can absorb rainwater. </p>
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<p>Redesign all impervious, sealed spaces and turn these into areas where the water can infiltrate the soil. Use permeable materials.</p>
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<p>Think in an integrated way about street infrastructure, green and ecological systems, and the water system.</p>
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<p>These design interventions are not new and have been done abroad in cities such as Rotterdam, Hamburg or Stockholm. If we could add to these the redesign of roofs and gardens of industrial and residential estates and turn these into green roofs and rain gardens, the city would start to operate as a huge sponge. </p>
<p>When it rains, the city absorbs the huge amounts of water and releases it slowly to the creek and river system after the rain has gone. This way, green spaces and water spaces not only play an important role during and just after a cyclone, but they then add quality to people’s immediate living environment. </p>
<p>And maybe the best of all this: the bill Debbie and other natural disasters would present to government, industries and insurers could be much lower.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Rob Roggema is p</span>rofessor of Sustainable Urban Environments, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-roggema-351369" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Cyclone Debbie

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