Capital Growth

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The national home value index one per cent over December, pointing to a strong start to 2021, data analytics firm CoreLogic's monthly home value index found.

It was the third consecutive month of dwelling value gains after declines of -2.1 per cent drop in dwelling values between April and September.

Darwin again led the way in monthly gains over December, with dwelling values up another 2.3 per cent. They are 5.5 per cent up on the quarter in the Northern Territory capital and nine per cent up the calendar year, the best performing market across the country for 2020.

Darwin was followed by 1.1 per cent gains in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

Melbourne was the other other capital to see gains of one per cent or above, with Hobart and Sydney recorded modest 0.7 per cent growth and Canberra the worst performer but still up 0.6 per cent.

<img alt="" height="707" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/corelogic_january_2021.jpg" width="1200">

CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said the year was characterised by a mild COVID dip in values, but unprecedented volatility in the transaction space.

“The number of residential property sales plummeted by -40% through March and April but finished the year with almost 8% more sales relative to a year ago as buyer numbers surged through the second half of the year," Lawless said.

Despite the volatility, housing values showed remarkable resilience, falling by only -2.1% before rebounding with strength throughout the final quarter of 2020.”

<h2>Houses v Units</h2>

The national housing market started its expected outperformance of its unit counterpart over December, with national average gains of 1.1 per cent over the month.

Unit values held firm however, seeing growth in every capital apart from Sydney.

Sydney's housing market did the heavy lifting for their 0.7 per cent dwelling value gains. Houses were up 1.1 per cent over December compared to a -0.1 per cent contraction in the unit market.

House values in Melbourne outperformed Sydney's, up 1.2 per cent. Their unit market growth was one of the best in the country, up 0.6 per cent, only bettered by Perth's 1.1 per cent gains.

It was a similar script in Queensland, with Brisbane home values up 1.2 per cent and unit values up 0.4 per cent.

 
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The national home value index price rose one per cent over December, pointing to a strong start to 2021, data analytics firm CoreLogic's monthly home value index found.



Joel Robinson

Every capital sees real estate value growth in December 2020: CoreLogic

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The standout feature of Domain’s Top 10 prestige beach suburbs list is the remarkably poor performance on capital growth.
The best of them wouldn’t make the Top 10 list for capital growth rates in Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Sydney or Brisbane – nor the Top 25 list of best performers in regional Australia. 
One of the so-called Top 10, Noosa, has recorded zero growth over 10 years. This helps to confirm our ranking of Noosa as Australia’s biggest real estate lemon.
The Domain list of Top 10 prestige beach suburbs continues a grand tradition of Australian media publishing real estate lists that are pointless, inaccurate or farcical.
It says something about the mediocre performance of these apparently prestigious beachside locations that one of the Top 10 has recorded no growth at all over the past decade. 
It’s the antithesis of investment, which is meant to be about achieving growth. The only thing of value to owners in many of these ritzy locations is the ego trip. Beyond that, they’re crying all the way to the bank.
These locations, which include Brighton in Melbourne, Bronte in Sydney and Cottesloe in Perth, have all the qualities that many people imagine would make them out-performers on capital growth: great beaches, quality restaurants, wonderful amenities and top quality homes. 
Many investors would rue their inability to afford to buy there and grow their wealth. But they need not concern themselves: there’s better capital growth in the middle market areas and the downmarket suburbs, which dominate the Top 10 growth lists in most of our major cities.
Remember that old real estate adage about property doubling in value every 10 years, which means a growth rate averaging better than 7% per year? It’s generally untrue. The best performers achieve it, but most properties do not. And certainly none of the Top 10 prestige beach suburbs have done so.
The No.1 ranked prestige beach suburb for capital growth, which apparently is Brighton in Melbourne, has managed growth averaging just 6.7% per year.
No.2 Portsea, also in Melbourne, recorded growth averaging only 5.55% per year. This is not a stellar performance, although the people who put together the list apparently thought it was.
Byron Bay, which according to Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson is “an exceptional market”, has averaged a mediocre 5.4% per year - a growth rate at which it would take over 13 years for values to double.
The bottom half the Top 10 list is made up of suburbs with growth rates that don’t even match inflation. 
Main Beach on the Gold Coast has a growth rate of a little over 1% per year. Palm Beach in Sydney, where the median price is $2.7 million, has managed less than 1% per year.
To put these growth rates into perspective, the best suburbs in Darwin, Perth and Melbourne all have growth rates above 10% per year. The best in Sydney are above 9% per year.
And, outside the capital cities, the Top 25 regional centres all have growth rates of 10% per year or better, with the top four achieving 15%-plus. 
If you’d bought the typical Palm Beach property 10 years ago, you would have paid around $2.46 million and managed capital gains of around $220,000 a decade later. In real terms, you lost money.
If you’d spent that $2.46 million in the best-performing suburbs in Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne (you could have bought multiple properties in multiple cities for that sum), your capital gain would have been $4.2 million.
Which would you rather have: the prestige - or $4.2 million?
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Poor capital growth performance for beach retreats: Terry Ryder

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The top 20 locations in Australia for long-term capital growth are all regional locations.
That may surprise many people because the general theme in media is that the capital cities out-perform their regional markets. 
The misconception arises when research houses spit figures out of their computers and rush them off to media without providing any analysis of the realities behind the generalised figures.
A general figure describing growth in regional New South Wales will often produce a low growth figure because there are lots of mediocre small town markets, which drag down the average. The generalised number for regional Queensland will be low because there are numerous markets in decline, thanks to their links to the resources sector and/or developer oversupply. 
But the best individual towns often deliver higher long-term growth than the best of the capital city suburbs.
The latest Hotspotting survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report - examining long-term capital growth rates for every suburb and town in Australia - shows that, once again, the best growth rates are all regional.
The best of the capital cities are two suburbs of Darwin, Gray and Fannie Bay, which average 10.2% per year. But that’s barely good enough to make the Top 20 list for regional Australia.
The Top 20 regional locations have growth rates ranging from 10.2% to 20.7% per year.
Most of them are mining towns, resources regional centres or country towns boosted by recent resources activity. This is despite the sharp decline in prices in many resources-impacted towns over the past 2-3 years.
But the No.1 location in Australia for long-term capital growth is not a mining-related location. It’s the oddly-named Humpty Doo, a town of 6,000 about 40km from Darwin on the road to Kakadu National Park. It has a capital growth rate of 20.7% per year, largely because of growth generated by the outward sprawl of Darwin. 
Newman, an iron ore town in the Pilbara region of WA, is No.2 with a price growth average of 18% per year over the past decade. This is actually a significant drop on the town’s peak, about three years ago, when it averaged 30%-plus as the median price reached $780,000. It has dropped back to $685,000, according to the latest figures, but the growth rate is still the second best in the nation. 
Let’s be clear. I don’t advocate investing in mining towns or mining regional centres. They are just too volatile and too high risk. 
A few short years ago the iconic coal-mining town of Moranbah in Queensland had a long-term capital growth average above 30% per year. Back then its median price was $750,000. Today it’s $250,000 and the capital growth average for the past 10 years is now minus 0.2%. 
In other words, all that capital growth since 2005 has been wiped out and values are now lower than they were 10 years ago.
Moranbah is the most extreme boom-bust story I have encountered in Australian real estate, but there are other mining-impacted locations which have soared and are now very busy plummeting.
Port Hedland once had a median house price above $1.2 million and a capital growth rate close to 30% per year. Today the median is around $800,000 and the capital growth rate has dropped to 11.6%. 
That’s still good enough to rank No.10 in Australia and it means that if you bought there 10 years ago you’re still well in front. But if you bought there three years ago, you’re feeling a tad sick.
Despite the sharp decline in their markets in recent years, mining towns and resources regional centres still have the highest long-term capital growth rates in Australia – other than Humpty Doo. By comparison, the best of the capital city suburbs fade into insignificance.
<a href="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" alt="">
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar <a href="component/content/article?id=42796" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Regional areas offering long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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The forecast remained extremely positive for Geelong, the Victorian port city despite "incredible capital growth over the past five years.
The growth had put Geelong on the map, according to the latest analysis by RiskWise Property Research that found high population growth and a rise in infrastructure projects, leading to an improved economy and more jobs, have greatly increased the popularity of the area.
“Add to that it only takes an hour to drive to Melbourne and housing is significantly more affordable, it is ticking plenty of boxes for a lot of people with their eye on capital growth in the future,” RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said.
One key piece of infrastructure will be delivered by the Federal Government thanks to a $50 million funding boost to help deliver the Geelong rail duplication between South Geelong and Waurn Ponds train stations.
Meanwhile, the Victorian State Government has also directed $50 million to investigate fast rail between Geelong and Melbourne, as part of the Melbourne Airport Link, to be delivered within 10 to 15 years.
It all adds up to an economic windfall for the region, with more employment attracting more residents to the area, Peleg suggests.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/30/Geelong%20-%20Median%20Price.jpg" alt="">
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“And this, in turn, has seen capital growth in the past five years explode with the forecast also looking good for future capital growth.”
He said compared to Melbourne, Geelong offered greater value for money and more affordability.
“Given its proximity to Melbourne, it is becoming very popular with those wanting a great lifestyle and better housing options with more value for money … and they are still within a comfortable distance from the CBD to commute to work,” he said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/30/Geelong%20-%20Population%20Growth.jpg" alt="">
“Of course, it’s always important to remember that houses are a good investment while units carry a higher level of risk due to potential oversupply issues and that they do not appeal to families looking for three bedrooms and a yard, meaning demand is less.”
The median house price for Geelong is only $576,118 compared to $836,122 for Greater Melbourne. For units in Geelong its $403,408 compared to $552,941. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/30/Geelong%20Capital%20Growth%20-%20Houses.jpg" alt="">
“This means who can buy a house in Geelong for around the same price you could buy a unit in Greater Melbourne. It represents excellent value for money,” he said.
 “And we believe it will only get more popular in the next few years, thereby presenting projected solid capital growth.”
An recently sale was a Swanston Street two bedroom house which sold for $581, 000 (pictured below).
Located at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-geelong-128360630" target="_blank"> 151 Swanston Street</a>, the house comes with two spacious bedrooms, large family living area, updated kitchen and dining area.
Other features include high ceilings, plenty of natural flowing light and gas heating.
It is close to the cafe precincts, river, Kardinia Park and the CBD.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/1/geelong%201.jpg" alt="">
Another sale was a McKillop Street two bedroom house which was sold at $560,000 (pictured below).
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-geelong-127948670" target="_blank">The 17 McKillop Street house</a> features two good sized bedrooms, living room with fireplace, sleek kitchen, and low maintenance gardens. 
It is within close proximity to the CBD, waterfront and local hospitals. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/1/geelong%202.jpg" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Continued capital growth forecast for Geelong

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Pemulwuy, a western Sydney suburb named after an Aboriginal warrior, is a high second on the list of suburbs predicted to grow most in the next eight years by a research report.
The <a href="https://www.residex.com.au/top-100-predictions-report?utm_source=blog.residex.com.au&amp;utm_medium=article-link&amp;utm_campaign=kd-160117">Residex Predictions Report</a> ranks the top 109 suburbs where predicted capital growth is forecast to be between an average of 4.0 percent and 11.1 percent per annum over the next five years, and between an average of 5.1 percent and 8.4 percent per annum over the next eight years.
The report is a valuable starting point for property investors researching where to buy next.
House values in Pemulwuy (postcode 2145) are expected to provide an average of 8.34 percent growth per year over the next eight years, according to the report. It ranks behind Gordon in the ACT where house values are predicted to grow by an average of 8.4% per year till 2025.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s Asia Pacific research director said the suburbs listed in the report are the ones that we would expect to perform well in future years based purely upon the statistical patterns that the Residex algorithm has identified in their historical growth rates.
“Residex’s predictive model doesn’t allow for new developments, changing demographic patterns, improved infrastructure or any other such factors and these can have a substantial impact on the capital gain prospects across a suburb or town,” he said.
The December report is the first <a href="https://www.residex.com.au/top-100-predictions-report?utm_source=blog.residex.com.au&amp;utm_medium=article-link&amp;utm_campaign=kd-160117" target="_blank">Predictions Report</a> compiled by Residex since the business was purchased by CoreLogic in 2016, and uses the combined data resources of the two businesses.
The data is drawn from median values using the CoreLogic automated valuation model, rather than median sales prices. This is an important distinction as it takes into account the value of all properties within the suburb, not just those that have transacted across the period. This makes it a more reliable and stable indicator of values across the region.
The median value of houses in Pemulwuy was $914,000 as at October 2016, with an annual average growth of 8.22 percent, according to CoreLogic data.
Around the median price, some of the houses recently sold or on the market were:
A four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-pemulwuy-124063734" target="_blank">7 Cummings Avenue, Pemulwuy,</a> (below) NSW 2145, which is on the market with a price guide of $899,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/17/ResidexPemulbuy1.jpg" alt="">
Another four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-pemulwuy-123775782" target="_blank">23 Bulbi Street, Pemulwuy, NSW 2145</a> has been listed for $980,000.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/ResidexPemulbuy2.png" alt="">
Besides the ones on the market, some houses that recently changed hands include a four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-pemulwuy-123857974" target="_blank">36 Bulbi St, Pemulwuy, NSW 2145</a> that sold for $930,000 in November 2016. The selling agency was Riverbank Real Estate. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/17/ResidexPemulbuy3.jpg" alt="">
Another sale was that of a four-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-pemulwuy-123405206" target="_blank">19 Stanbury Ave, </a><a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-pemulwuy-123405206" target="_blank">Pemulwuy, NSW 2145</a> for $915,000 in September 2016. This too was sold through Riverbank. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/17/ResidexPemulbuy4.png" alt="">
 
In the national report, 107 suburbs had top predictions for houses while there were two suburbs for units. Across the country, 60 of the top 109 suburbs were in regional Australia and 49 were in city areas.
 
Broken down by state, 16 were in the ACT, 39 suburbs were within NSW, 15 were in Queensland, there was 1 from SA, 13 from Tasmania, 6 from Victoria and 19 from WA. Separate reports are also available for Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
 
Lawless said the report was not definitive and other suburbs could also perform strongly. Investors should conduct their own additional research before deciding to commit to a purchase.
 
“As with any forward looking analytic, the reports are predictions, not a guarantee of future growth, and taking into consideration your own personal circumstances is vital,” Mr Lawless said.
 
Get your full copy of the <a href="https://www.residex.com.au/top-100-predictions-report?utm_source=blog.residex.com.au&amp;utm_medium=article-link&amp;utm_campaign=kd-160117" target="_blank">Residex Predictions Report here</a> for $195 per state or $250 for the national report.
 
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Sydney's Pemulwuy follows Gordon as suburb with best growth prospects: Residex report

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This year has been full of surprises, both very large in terms of impact (Brexit) as well as very small in probability (Leicester City winning the EPL with 5000:1 odds) and a combination of both (Trump Presidency), according to Secret Agent’s latest bulletin.
Additionally, 2016 saw two interest rate cuts by the RBA, bringing official rates to 1.50%.
Given all the tumult, Melbourne property prices have remained fairly stable.
The following capital growth analysis of inner Melbourne houses, townhouses and apartments provides a breakdown of results by region.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%201Figure%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%201Figure%206.jpg" alt="">
“It uses Secret Agent’s resales index, which tracks the sales of identical property (i.e. no renovations, demolitions, or other activities that add or remove value from the market) over time,” the bulletin stated.
Secret Agent claims this makes the figures more accurate than simple median or average growth price changes, which can often be skewed by large property sales or a general change in the underlying quality.
Houses and townhouses have been on an upward trend since 2011.
They have surged from annualised growth of around 7% earlier this year to over 8% (when converting the quarterly growth to an annual value) in Q4 of 2016.
On average, all regions experienced similar capital growth over the year, between 7.33% in the inner south and up to 7.59% in the inner east.
Overall, inner Melbourne house and townhouse investments grew by 7.54%, beating the five-year average (2011-2015) of 6.32% by 101 basis points.
This is also well above the 2015 average annual growth across inner Melbourne of 6.98%.
The five-year average growth represents the average of all annual median capital growth between 2011 and 2015.
The inner north had a mixed 2016, with half the suburbs beating 2015 growth rates and two thirds improving on the average five-year growth rate.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%202.jpg" alt="">
The suburbs with the highest median growth in the inner north are Fitzroy and Fitzroy North, both at around 8% on an annual basis and well above the previous five-year trend of 6.47% and 7.16% respectively.
On the other hand, Collingwood (5.58%) and Carlton (5.43%) had the lowest capital growth over the year.
The inner south had an exceptional year in terms of capital growth, with suburbs growing at a faster pace than last year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%203.jpg" alt="">
The exception was Albert Park, which remained at its 2015 annual growth rate of 6.17%.
Middle Park had the largest capital gains, growing at an annualised rate of 9.18%, over 2% higher than in 2015.
Port Melbourne and South Melbourne also had high capital growth rates of around 7% each.
The best performing region for houses and townhouses for 2016 was the inner east, where all suburbs except South Yarra had stronger annual growth than in 2015.
Only South Yarra and East Melbourne’s capital growth was slightly below the previous five-year average.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%204.jpg" alt="">
Cremorne topped the list with an impressive 10% capital growth.
There is often more variance in smaller suburbs so this may have pushed up capital growth slightly here.
Hawthorn, Prahran and Abbotsford follow at between 7-8% annualised growth each. Both Richmond and East Melbourne managed between 6-7% growth.
All four inner west suburbs increased on 2015 levels, although the results are less impressive when compared to the inner east and south.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%205.jpg" alt="">
While Travancore had the smallest annualised growth rate in 2016 (5.39%), it is above the 2015 rate by 170 basis points.
Overall, suburbs in the inner west managed to surpass 2015 growth rates by an average of 95.5 basis points.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Figure%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Figure%207.jpg" alt="">
On the other hand, capital growth for inner Melbourne apartments and units has been declining since Q2 2007, a trend that continued in 2016.
Apartments across inner Melbourne grew by 2.96% over the year, below the previous five-year average of 3.37% and the 2015 annual average of 3.03%.
For the first three quarters of 2016, capital growth remained at about the same level. All areas except the inner west experienced a downturn in the final quarter of the year.
Note that these final quarter results may change slightly as the year comes to an end.
Apartments in the inner city all experienced capital growth in 2016 that was below the previous five-year average.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%206.jpg" alt="">
However, Southbank and the CBD managed to improve on last year’s growth rates, showing a potential gain in momentum.
Docklands apartments were below their 2015 growth rate of 1.40% by 14 basis points.
In the inner north, only Clifton Hill (which also topped the list at 5.75% annualised growth), Fitzroy and Brunswick East managed to beat their 2015 capital growth, while Fitzroy North retained its previous annual growth of 4.53%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%207.jpg" alt="">
Brunswick apartments had the greatest drop in capital growth rates since last year, falling by 80 basis points, followed by Parkville, where growth slowed by 70 basis points.
Inner South apartments had a mixed 2016, with half of the suburbs growing at a faster pace than last year and the other half slowing down.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%208.jpg" alt="">
In Albert Park, apartments and units actually outperformed houses and townhouses by about 30 basis points.
South Melbourne apartments grew in value only slightly above inflation at 2.69%, down from 3.03% last year and 3.89% on average between 2011 and 2015.
Compared to other regions, apartments and units in the inner east performed relatively well.
Cremorne has topped both the house/townhouse and apartment growth lists, growing at an annual rate just below 6% in the latter.
All other suburbs except South Yarra (3.85%) and Prahran (2.50%) managed capital gains between 4-5%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%209.jpg" alt="">
The inner west had the smallest capital gains in 2016. Travancore, which in previous years had seen declining growth rates, was the only suburb which managed to surpass its five-year average growth.
No suburb had annual growth higher than 3%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/22/Table%2010.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/22/Table%2010.jpg" alt="">
West Melbourne came closest at 2.86%.
Kensington was second on the list with 2.27%, a gain of 56 basis points over last year’s capital growth.
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The top Melbourne suburbs on the rise in 2016: Secret Agent

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GUEST OBSERVER
With a record-high number of units currently under construction nationwide, the capital growth performance of units is weaker than houses in certain cities and we anticipate that this trend will continue.
The CoreLogic Home Value Index shows that over the 12 months to August 2016, combined capital city house values have increased by 7.2 percent compared to a 5.5 percent rise in unit values.
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<h3>Rolling annual change in house and unit values, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image1.png" alt="">
The first chart shows the annual change in combined capital city house and unit values over time.  The chart shows that typically the change in house values is greater than units.  What is interesting though is that during the past two instances of value declines nationally, house values have actually recorded greater annual falls than units.
While the rate of annual growth for units has been only slightly lower than that of houses across the combined capital cities, across individual cities the trends vary significantly.  Hobart and Darwin are the only two capital cities in which the change in unit values over the past year has been greater than the change in house values. 
<h3>Annual change in individual capital city house and unit values 12 months to August 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image2.png" alt="">
In Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, the change in unit values over the past year has been less than half that of houses.  This in itself is interesting, particularly when you consider that Melbourne and Brisbane in particular are currently experiencing historic high levels of new unit construction.  The fact that in many of these cities substantial increases in unit stock is expected over the coming years, it is reasonable to anticipate that the gap between the annual change in house and unit value will persist and potentially grow larger.
Taking a longer-term look at the change in house and unit values since December 2008 shows clearly that overall value growth has been much stronger in Sydney and Melbourne than anywhere else.  Over the period, both house and unit values are higher across each capital city however, houses have outperformed units in all cities except Hobart and Darwin.  In Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra, the cumulative growth in unit values has been less than half that of houses over the period.
<h3>Total change in house and unit values, December 2008 to August 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image3.png" alt="">
The data shows that we’re already seeing the growth in unit values generally underperforming houses values.  Of course, over recent years the overall supply of units, particularly in inner city areas has increased substantially with even more new stock to come.  The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that nationally there were 152,449 units under construction at the end of the March 2016 with an additional 41,548 units approved for construction to July 2016, many of which would have already commenced construction.
While demand for inner-city housing, particularly units, has increased significantly over recent years the heightened level of unit construction has the potential to create problems for the housing market.  While an increase in housing supply is important, much of the new unit stock to-date has been targeted at an investor market.  From an investors perspective units offer higher yields and lower prices than houses however, in many cities recent growth has underperformed while the rental market is the weakest it has been in more than two decades.  With additional unit stock under construction, there is the potential as this stock enters the market the rental market will become even more depressed.
<h3>Quarterly number of houses and units under construction, National</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image4.png" alt="">
Over the coming years we anticipate that the performance of houses and units could diverge even further.  While units offer a much more affordable purchase price than houses, as the supply of units relative to houses increases, we would expect demand for detached houses to hold-up much better than demand for units.  Especially considering much of the new unit stock has to-date been one or two bedrooms, of a similar internal size and design and very much targeted at a similar market segment.
For those people who are looking to purchase a unit at a time when supply levels are moving through record highs, projects which are differentiated from the broader market, based on their location, design, owner mix or quality of the developer may provide some safe haven from the weaker unit market conditions.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Record new unit supply is likely to contribute to the underperformance of unit values: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
Anyone can be a successful investor but it is critical you set your goals and start with the end in mind. Begin by finding a proven system that other successful people have used in the past. 
The key is doing your research and making sure your money goes somewhere that over the medium-term you can expect steady capital growth. Property has long been a proven investment performer in Australia with well-chosen properties tending to double in value over a 7 to 10 year period, and this is a field OpenCorp has a proven track record in helping clients get involved with. 
Do one thing and do it well 
Once you’ve found your already successful mentors and identified a proven wealth creation strategy, stick with it. It takes patience and dedication. Keep the FOCUS acronym in mind: follow one course until success. 
Goal setting 
Keeping the end in sight, you need to set firm goals. A new financial year is upon us so now is a perfect time to do this. The goal doesn’t need to be unrealistic, it should suit what you can reach, however modest that may be to begin with. Keep moving forward. Expect setbacks, learn from them and persist. 
But you do need a very clear visual picture of where you want to end up in 10 to 15 years. My goal when I started in investment was to be able to work only as much as I needed, to still enjoy time with friends and family, but to be able to buy a house and create an environment where I could raise a family. That was my goal. 
Action vs aspiration 
Getting your start-up capital (that first deposit or whatever your goal is) may be the most difficult step in your investment journey, but it’s also the most important. Whatever you can do today is already on the way to growing for tomorrow. If you ever think back and wish, ‘I wish I had done that 10 years ago,’ let that motivate you. Aspiration must meet action to create results. 
Compound growth – people overcomplicate strategy. 
If I had to put wealth creation and making money into two words, it would be: compound growth. The reason, in the simplest terms, is that compound growth is growth on top of growth. What this means though is that wealth creation takes time. It takes patience and discipline to maximise the benefits of compound growth. 
Cash flow properties versus growth properties 
A positive cash flow positive property is an investment property that returns more than it costs to own. Typically, this becomes possible when interest rates are low and there is strong demand, meaning higher rents, or once an investor has made a significant dent in the principal of the loan.
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A growth property is one, on the other hand, that earns less in rental fees than you pay on its mortgage and maintenance, etc. A growth property pays its way through steady appreciation and, ultimately, resale. 
While a cash flow property might seem obviously superior, returning profit from day one, traditionally these properties may be in areas with less economic stability in the rental market. Or they might be seen as having less potential for capital gains. 
However, with Australian interest rates stable at historic lows this does not need to be an either/or consideration. A cash flow property can also be a growth property. While it might take between two and five years for an investment property to become cash flow positive, with interest rates below 4 percent and net yield sitting comfortably above this, solid growth properties across the market can also be cash flow properties. It just comes down to doing your research, getting the best advice and choosing the right property. 
Michael Beresford is director of investment services at OpenCorp and can be <a href="https://www.opencorp.com.au" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
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How to set your investment strategy: Michael Beresford

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When buying investment property, capital growth prospects should be prioritised over rental returns, says property expert John McGrath in a recent blog post on Switzer, citing a recent Corelogic RP Data report showing rental growth was slower than capital growth over the past decade.
The report shows that across the combined capital cities, rents have increased by 50.7 percent (or 4.2 percent per annum) over the past decade compared to an increase in capital values of 72 percent (or 5.6 percent per annum), he says. 
Looking at different property types, house rents increased by 50.3 percent while apartment rents rose by 53.7 percent. Drilling down to the cities, the two capitals with the greatest rental increases were Sydney (no surprise) at 59.4 percent and Perth at 54.6 percent. 
"Rental returns are important because they help you with your loan repayments. That’s their primary purpose at the beginning of your tenure of an investment property," he says. 
In most cases, especially in the high value markets of Sydney and Melbourne, the odds are the rent on a newly acquired investment property will not cover repayments or other costs in their entirety so an investor will have negatively gearing. 
Regardless, the rent will still take care of a sizeable chunk of the outlays, thereby reducing the cost of holding the investment property while time does its thing to deliver capital gains. 
However, over time, if one chooses to pay the principal and interest on the investment loan; and rental returns gradually increase year to year, one will eventually get to a point where rental returns do in fact cover the whole mortgage.  And throughout all this, tax benefits such as depreciation, will also have a positive impact. After a bit more time, the rent will start to cover other expenses like strata fees and council rates too. This would take an investor into positive cash flow territory and that’s an excellent place to be – it’s the dream scenario for retirees. 
But that requires good long-term strategy, adds McGrath.
"Many people say interest-only loans are the way to go with investments because they keep your repayments to a minimum. This is entirely true and a good strategy to adopt if your cash flow is tight. But if you want to get to a point where the rent is covering everything, you’ll generally need to start paying some Principal at some point.
"It’s helpful to think about where you want to be in retirement and work backwards from there. But don’t do it alone – sit down with your accountant or financial advisor. You might want to keep your loan at interest-only to keep outlays as low as possible, wait for capital growth; then sell in 10 years for a profit. Another scenario might involve paying the principal and interest to reduce the loan down to positive cash flow as soon as possible, with the intention of creating a strong, debt-free, income-producing asset for life.  
"Your strategy will depend on your goals and the timeframe you have to achieve them. But if there’s one piece of advice I hope you take when buying an investment it’s this – capital growth first, rental return second. Always."
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When buying investment property – capital growth first, rental return second: John McGrath

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CoreLogic's Home Value Index shows Sydney ranked as the weakest capital city - the only with negative growth in the three months to February.
Sydney dropped 0.2 percent over the quarter.
The next weakest city was Perth which improved by 0.2 percent over the quarter, but with a weak February.
Sydney did pick up a tad in the month of February, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data release.
It still holds the highest median dwelling price with $730,000, ahead of Melbourne's $550,000.
Hobart was the best performing capital city with a dwelling value increase of 8.5 percent.
 
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2010.34.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2010.34.55%20AM.png" alt=""> 
 
 
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