The top Melbourne suburbs on the rise in 2016: Secret Agent
This year has been full of surprises, both very large in terms of impact (Brexit) as well as very small in probability (Leicester City winning the EPL with 5000:1 odds) and a combination of both (Trump Presidency), according to Secret Agent’s latest bulletin.
Additionally, 2016 saw two interest rate cuts by the RBA, bringing official rates to 1.50%.
Given all the tumult, Melbourne property prices have remained fairly stable.
The following capital growth analysis of inner Melbourne houses, townhouses and apartments provides a breakdown of results by region.
“It uses Secret Agent’s resales index, which tracks the sales of identical property (i.e. no renovations, demolitions, or other activities that add or remove value from the market) over time,” the bulletin stated.
Secret Agent claims this makes the figures more accurate than simple median or average growth price changes, which can often be skewed by large property sales or a general change in the underlying quality.
Houses and townhouses have been on an upward trend since 2011.
They have surged from annualised growth of around 7% earlier this year to over 8% (when converting the quarterly growth to an annual value) in Q4 of 2016.
On average, all regions experienced similar capital growth over the year, between 7.33% in the inner south and up to 7.59% in the inner east.
Overall, inner Melbourne house and townhouse investments grew by 7.54%, beating the five-year average (2011-2015) of 6.32% by 101 basis points.
This is also well above the 2015 average annual growth across inner Melbourne of 6.98%.
The five-year average growth represents the average of all annual median capital growth between 2011 and 2015.
The inner north had a mixed 2016, with half the suburbs beating 2015 growth rates and two thirds improving on the average five-year growth rate.
The suburbs with the highest median growth in the inner north are Fitzroy and Fitzroy North, both at around 8% on an annual basis and well above the previous five-year trend of 6.47% and 7.16% respectively.
On the other hand, Collingwood (5.58%) and Carlton (5.43%) had the lowest capital growth over the year.
The inner south had an exceptional year in terms of capital growth, with suburbs growing at a faster pace than last year.
The exception was Albert Park, which remained at its 2015 annual growth rate of 6.17%.
Middle Park had the largest capital gains, growing at an annualised rate of 9.18%, over 2% higher than in 2015.
Port Melbourne and South Melbourne also had high capital growth rates of around 7% each.
The best performing region for houses and townhouses for 2016 was the inner east, where all suburbs except South Yarra had stronger annual growth than in 2015.
Only South Yarra and East Melbourne’s capital growth was slightly below the previous five-year average.
Cremorne topped the list with an impressive 10% capital growth.
There is often more variance in smaller suburbs so this may have pushed up capital growth slightly here.
Hawthorn, Prahran and Abbotsford follow at between 7-8% annualised growth each. Both Richmond and East Melbourne managed between 6-7% growth.
All four inner west suburbs increased on 2015 levels, although the results are less impressive when compared to the inner east and south.
While Travancore had the smallest annualised growth rate in 2016 (5.39%), it is above the 2015 rate by 170 basis points.
Overall, suburbs in the inner west managed to surpass 2015 growth rates by an average of 95.5 basis points.
On the other hand, capital growth for inner Melbourne apartments and units has been declining since Q2 2007, a trend that continued in 2016.
Apartments across inner Melbourne grew by 2.96% over the year, below the previous five-year average of 3.37% and the 2015 annual average of 3.03%.
For the first three quarters of 2016, capital growth remained at about the same level. All areas except the inner west experienced a downturn in the final quarter of the year.
Note that these final quarter results may change slightly as the year comes to an end.
Apartments in the inner city all experienced capital growth in 2016 that was below the previous five-year average.
However, Southbank and the CBD managed to improve on last year’s growth rates, showing a potential gain in momentum.
Docklands apartments were below their 2015 growth rate of 1.40% by 14 basis points.
In the inner north, only Clifton Hill (which also topped the list at 5.75% annualised growth), Fitzroy and Brunswick East managed to beat their 2015 capital growth, while Fitzroy North retained its previous annual growth of 4.53%.
Brunswick apartments had the greatest drop in capital growth rates since last year, falling by 80 basis points, followed by Parkville, where growth slowed by 70 basis points.
Inner South apartments had a mixed 2016, with half of the suburbs growing at a faster pace than last year and the other half slowing down.
In Albert Park, apartments and units actually outperformed houses and townhouses by about 30 basis points.
South Melbourne apartments grew in value only slightly above inflation at 2.69%, down from 3.03% last year and 3.89% on average between 2011 and 2015.
Compared to other regions, apartments and units in the inner east performed relatively well.
Cremorne has topped both the house/townhouse and apartment growth lists, growing at an annual rate just below 6% in the latter.
All other suburbs except South Yarra (3.85%) and Prahran (2.50%) managed capital gains between 4-5%.
The inner west had the smallest capital gains in 2016. Travancore, which in previous years had seen declining growth rates, was the only suburb which managed to surpass its five-year average growth.
No suburb had annual growth higher than 3%.
West Melbourne came closest at 2.86%.
Kensington was second on the list with 2.27%, a gain of 56 basis points over last year’s capital growth.
