Business Conditions

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GUEST OBSERVER
The NAB business survey reported that business conditions remained elevated in July and that business confidence increased. The survey was conducted from July 25 to 31.
In July, the conditions index rose 1pt to +15. This is well above the long-run average for this series, of +1 (dating from 1989), but below the highs of 2007 ahead of the GFC.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.14.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.14.38%20AM.png" alt="">
The components of business conditions for July were: trading conditions down 1pt to +20; profitability up 4pts to +18; and employment conditions held onto earlier gains, steady at +7.
Business confidence moved higher, up 4pts to +12. Business confidence has improved since 2016, mirroring the global trend, and is at above average levels, although it continues to trail actual conditions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.15.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.15.52%20AM.png" alt="">
How to interpret the survey?
The elevated level of the business conditions index is overstating actual conditions across the broader economy, as it has tended to do since the GFC.
Directionally, the survey suggests that the Australian economy is experiencing a trend improvement in underlying conditions after the slowdown in mid-2016, associated with the July Federal election.
The official data was mixed early in 2017, impacted by weather disruptions. More recently, partial indicators have improved (retail sales, exports, jobs), lending support to our view that the economy will rebound in 2017 from these temporary disruptions, although consumer spending is likely to be constrained by weak wages growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.17.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-09%20at%208.17.09%20AM.png" alt="">
On employment growth, the previously weak official data has fallen into line with the positive signal from the private business surveys, meeting our expectations. The survey suggests that the recent trend improvement in employment will be sustained in coming months.
On investment, the outlook is less certain, with the survey’s capex measure pulling back in July.
By industry, a strengthening of conditions in 2017 relative to 2016H2 is evident in: construction; manufacturing; and mining. Construction has strengthened on an upswing in public investment; a lift in commercial building; elevated home building activity (ahead of a 2018 downturn); and the waning of the mining investment drag. Mining is enjoying better cash flows associated with higher commodity prices. Manufacturing is benefitting from strength in construction, mining, agriculture and the lower AUD. Positive spillover effects are also evident in wholesale and in transport &amp; utilities.
Retail conditions reportedly dipped in July, possibly in part due to a mild winter, with Sydney experiencing its 2nd warmest July on record. Official data reports that real retail sales jumped in Q2, up 1.5%, after a weather disrupted 0.2% gain in Q1. The uncertainty is around the strength of consumer spending over the second half of 2017 and beyond.
By state, business conditions for July are positive in all states, with the exception of WA. Trend conditions are most favourable in the major non-mining state of NSW and Victoria. In NSW conditions jumped in July, to +22, possibly in part due to unseasonably mild and dry weather conditions. Looking through month to month volatility, the improvement in overall conditions between 2016H2 and 2017H1 is largely driven by the mining states of WA and Qld, as well as SA. 
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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July conditions elevated, confidence lifts: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Business conditions and business confidence remained deeply negative in May - despite a bounce from the extreme lows of April, when the nation was in a partial lock-down (particularly for “non-essential” workers). 
That was a key finding from the NAB business survey conducted from May 19 to June 1. The previous survey was taken from April 23 to 30. 
Business conditions rose from -34 to -24 in the month. That is still below the low point in the GFC, of -16.5, but above the 1990s recession low of -39. 
This bounce in conditions occurred as restrictions started to ease and the economy slowly reopened, albeit a reopening that is uneven across sectors and across states. 
Business confidence, having collapsed to a never before seen low of -65 in March, has clawed its way back to be around “recession levels” in May, at -20. That compares to the lows in the past cycles of, -30 during the GFC and -23 in 1990. 
Clearly the situation remains fluid and fast moving. The continued easing of restrictions in June will see a further bounce in business conditions. 
Even so, the detail of this report - which was weak to very weak - highlights that a return to business as usual is still some way off. 
Forward orders were extremely weak for a third consecutive month, at -29, showing only limited improvement from the -35 recorded in April.
Considerable space capacity has emerged in the wake of this economic recession, with capacity utilisation at 74.5 in May. That is up from an extreme of 71.9 in April but compares to around 82 during the second half of 2019. 
Against this backdrop of excess capacity, continued sharp falls in new orders and an uncertain outlook the business sector is downbeat on hiring and investment the survey finds.
The detail around business conditions for May was: trading conditions rose from -31 to -18; profitability moved from -35 to -19; while employment showed very little improvement, edging up from -34 to -31. 
The capital expenditure index rose from -32.7 to a still very weak -21.6. The path of retail spending and business investment spending will be very different as the economy reopens and recovers from this recession. 
By state, NSW is outperforming, with business conditions lifting to -13 as the state reopens earlier than in some other jurisdictions. Across the other mainland states readings for May were: Victoria, -25; Qld, -27; SA, -33; and WA, -35. 
By industry, business conditions rebounded in retail, which has begun to reopen on an easing of social distancing measures.
Across other sectors, conditions are mixed, reflective of the staggered re-opening and the challenges created by the pandemic and the recession. Recreation &amp; personal was still deeply negative at -37 with many venues yet to re-open. The finance, business &amp; property industry group was also deeply negative, stalling at around -27. 
Andrew Hanlan is an economic analyst at Westpac
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Business conditions still deeply negative despite bounce: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Business conditions fell 2 pts to +2 index points in July, driven by a decline in the employment sub-index. Trading conditions also edged lower, while reported profitability increased slightly in the month. All three sub-indexes are now again below average, with the decline in business conditions evident across most industries outside of mining over the past year.
Business confidence edged higher in the month to +4 index points, but remains below average. The lift in confidence was broad-based across industries in the month. Overall, in trend terms, business confidence remains highest in mining, as it has for some time. Outside of mining, finance, business &amp; property services remain most optimistic, while confidence is softest in manufacturing and recreation &amp; personal services.
Business conditions declined slightly in the month. As we have noted in previous months, the decline in business conditions since early 2018 has been broad-based and has continued to track at below average levels in recent months. This is concerning, because while conditions remain positive, it points to a significant loss in momentum in the business sector.
Business confidence ticked-up in the month, following an easing last month, but is also below average. While there were some positive signs with a post-election lift in confidence, this bounce now looks to have been short lived with confidence also tracking at below average levels in the two months since the election.
Business confidence in the retail sector saw a reasonable lift, likely related to the government’s tax cuts, but quite worryingly there appears to have been little boost to activity in the sector with conditions weakening further – the sector is currently facing recessionary levels of activity according to our measure.
Forward-looking indicators remain weak. Forward orders edged higher in the month but remain negative and well below average while capacity utilisation unwound its sharp spike last month and is now again just below average.
Looking at the components of the survey that provide an indication of conditions going forward, we see little improvement. With both forward orders weak, and capacity utilisation a bit below average – both capex and employment growth are at risk
With a significant loss of momentum in activity, and inflation indicators remaining weak, the survey points to the need to the need for further stimulus in the economy. Indeed, we expect a further easing in interest rates from the RBA and think that some greater fiscal support will be needed from the government to kickstart growth.
ALAN OSTER is the NAB Group Chief Economist 
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