Business

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GUEST OBSERVER
So much for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-reserve-bank-thinks-the-recovery-will-look-v-shaped-there-are-reasons-to-doubt-it-138213">v-shaped recovery</a>.
Australia is set to record its biggest quarterly fall in GDP in history this week. The federal government will extend its JobKeeper wage subsidy program by six months. About <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-will-have-more-people-on-jobkeeper-in-december-and-march-quarters-than-the-rest-of-australia-combined-145301">1.75 million workers</a>, including about 1 million Victorians, are expected to rely on it till March.
But there’s more to be done, particularly to help the small and medium-sized businesses taking the brunt of the COVID-19 economic impacts.
Small and medium enterprises employ about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8155.0Main%20Features42018-19?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=8155.0&amp;issue=2018-19&amp;num=&amp;view=">two-thirds of the workforce</a>. They are crucial to the prosperity of local communities.
A full third are pessimistic about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5676.0.55.003Main%20Features3August%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=5676.0.55.003&amp;issue=August%202020&amp;num=&amp;view=">making it through</a> the next three months, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ most recent survey of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5676.0.55.003Main%20Features3August%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=5676.0.55.003&amp;issue=August%202020&amp;num=&amp;view=">COVID-19 business impacts</a>. By comparison only 18% of large companies (those employing more than 200 employees) expect difficulties in meeting their financial obligations.
Even at the best of times many small businesses struggle. Yet <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijebr-01-2020-0031">our research</a> on 223 Australian business owners highlights failure (or success) isn’t just the result of individual entrepreneurs’ personal resources and capabilities. The local business environment plays a significant role.
As Malcolm Gladwell puts it in his book <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3228917-outliers">Outliers: The Story of Success</a>:
The tallest oak in the forest is the tallest not just because it grew from the hardiest acorn, it is the tallest also because no other trees blocked its sunlight, the soil around it was deep and rich, no rabbit chewed through its bark as a sapling, and no lumberjack cut it down before it matured.
The same is true for businesses. Even the most resourceful business owners struggle to get ahead when the environment stifles their efforts.
This is a thorny problem for governments as they turn from emergency measures to chart longer-term recovery policies.
There will, no doubt, be much debate over the usual areas – of subsidies and grants, tax breaks, red tape and industrial relations changes. But we suggest four less obvious priorities to create a favourable environment for small business.
1. Government procurement
Small businesses should be given a real advantage in procurement. Procurement policies and processes must be clear, protective and accessible to the small guys, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/incredibly-traumatised-small-businesses-facing-bushfire-insurance-maze-20200122-p53tkp">not a maze</a> that ends up helping only the big corporations.
The <a href="https://www.asbfeo.gov.au/about/the-ombudsman">Australian Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman</a>, Kate Carnell, has proposed that federal government contracts worth up to A$10 million <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/coronavirus/small-business-ombudsman-calls-for-small-business-procurement-panel/">go through a small business panel</a> as part of the tender process. “Lowest cost is not always the best value for money,” she said. We agree, with state and local government procurement policies being equally important.
2. Ensure they get good advice
One of the biggest decisions many small business owners will face will be whether to borrow money to keep their business going or cut their losses. That’s something for which they should get sound professional advice.
But when small businesses are cash-strapped, cutting back spending on advisers such as lawyers and accountants can be an obvious way to save money.
State and local governments offer some (limited) support to small business advisory services. Western Australia’s <a href="https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/The-Small-Business-Development-Corporation-helping-to-support-your-local-business-community">Small Business Development Corporation</a>, for example, provides free advice to local government for encouraging small business.
What we need now is a national program to ensure all small business owners can get good, free professional advice.
3. Encourage localism
Encouraging consumers to “buy local” is a pillar of regional development strategies. “Buy Australian” campaigns have been around since the 1980s with the latest incarnation <a href="http://www.buyaustralianmade.com.au/">Buy Australian Made</a> campaign launched in June. Its slogan: “It’s never been more important to buy Australian than right now.”
The success of these campaigns is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-businesses-arent-buying-it-when-it-comes-australian-made-3022">open to debate</a>, but the general principle appears sound. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.039">2017 analysis</a> of foodstuffs, for example, found greater localism associated with more resilient and sustainable local economies.
4. Promote mental health
The last measure is more psychological support. This has been a neglected area in the past, but improving business owners’ mental health is as effective as building a stronger network or increasing cash flow.
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijebr-01-2020-0031">Our calculations</a> suggest developing hope, optimism, self-efficacy and resilience can improve firm performance by 38%. That’s the same as building a stronger social network (38%), and twice as much as formal entrepreneurial education (15%).
With growing recognition of mental health issues, and the effects of COVID-19 crisis, government policies to promote small business should include a focus on business owners’ mental health.
So what does it all mean?
Together, these key factors determine whether business owners can leverage their own resources to drive performance and ride out the recession.
In the words of motivational speaker Alexander Den Heijer in <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40203003-nothing-you-don-t-already-know">Nothing you don’t already know</a>:
When a flower doesn’t bloom, you fix the environment in which it grows, not the flower.
Hopefully that will be enough.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145310/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrei-alexander-lux-883644">Andrei Alexander Lux</a>, Lecturer in Leadership and Organisational Behaviour, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720">Edith Cowan University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/flavio-romero-macau-998456">Flavio Romero Macau</a>, Senior Lecturer in Supply Chain Management and Global Logistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720">Edith Cowan University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-things-governments-can-do-to-help-small-business-145310">original article</a>.
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Four things governments can do to help small business

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Minister for Finance and Small Business Damien Tudehope has today announced the appointment of Chris Lamont as the new NSW Small Business Commissioner.
Mr Lamont will lead the Office of the Small Business Commission, which is responsible for advocacy, strategic advice, free to low-cost mediation and support to small businesses across the State.
Mr Tudehope said Mr Lamont’s appointment would provide the Small Business Commission with focus and direction at a difficult time for small businesses.
“Chris is known for his ability to develop relationships within government, industry and the business community and this experience is sure to be of great benefit and he will be a strong advocate for small business in NSW,” he said
Mr Lamont has more than 20 years of experience, comprising policy development and advocacy, senior government positions, not-for-profit and industry associations, business and the delivery of major government reforms and programs.
Most recently, Mr Lamont has been the General Manager for Capital Projects and Infrastructure with the City of Melbourne where he was responsible for the delivery of the capital works program.
Mr Lamont’s start date at the Small Business Commission will be 15 June.
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Chris Lamont appointed new NSW Small Business Commissioner

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After 8 years as Chairman and Managing Director of PRD real estate, Tony Brasier has passed the role of Managing Director onto Todd Hadley.
“I am thrilled to take over the leadership of PRD and continue to execute the strategic direction we have defined. It is a privilege to work with such a dedicated and passionate team,” said Mr Hadley.
"There are great opportunities for us to continually add value to the PRD franchisee’s and their agents across all market segments and we are well placed to take full advantage.” 
Tony will retain his position as PRD Chairman, to provide strategy and growth support to the company and its wider franchise network.
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Tony Brasier passes PRD Managing Director role to Todd Hadley

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<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/March/er20190312BullAustralianBusinessConditionsFeb.pdf">E</a>XPERT OBSERVER
As the 2019 year draws towards a close, conditions in the Australian economy remain weak. Policy stimulus is struggling to gain traction. The NAB business survey for November reports that business conditions have stabilised at low levels.
The survey was conducted from November 19 to 29. Given this timing, the survey is unlikely to have fully captured the recent “sales” - with Black Friday falling on November 29 and Cyber Monday on December 2.
The business conditions index was unchanged at +4, a below average reading. The index has moved broadly sideways since April, after tumbling from +19 over the first half of 2018.
Business confidence fell by 2pts to 0, reversing the 2pt lift in October. Confidence rallied in May, after the Federal election, but the bounce was short-lived. The lack of confidence is understandable in this challenging environment - with weak domestic sales and a slowing global economy, with heightened uncertainty around international trade.
The private business surveys correctly foreshadowed the sharp loss of momentum in the Australian economy from mid-2018, a shift that was led by the home building cycle turning from boom-to-bust, as well as by consumers.
Australia’s September quarter economic report card was another disappointing one - confirming feeble and uneven growth, at 1.7% for the year. The private sector economy is in recession, with private demand contracting by 0.3% in the quarter and declining by 0.4% over the year.
The NAB survey suggests that weak conditions have extended into the December quarter and there is a lack of momentum heading into 2020.
As to business conditions detail for November: trading conditions fell by 1pt to +6; profitability improved but remained weak, up 3pts to +3; and employment conditions moved sideways, at +4.
The survey suggests that employment conditions at this level are consistent with job gains averaging 18k per month near-term (down a little from the 20k per month average for the 2019 year to date).
We note that recently the official jobs data has fallen into line with the more downbeat forward indicators from the private business surveys to be consistent with the sluggish output results. The six month annualised pace of jobs growth has slowed to 1.6%, down from 2.5% in March.
Forward orders are weak, after a one-off gain in October, falling by 5pts to -2.
By industry, while aggregate business conditions have stabilised there has been some shift in the mix. The goods sectors have tended to weaken further since April, while services have improved somewhat. The consumer sectors have lifted off their lows, but retail is still as weak levels.
By state, weakness in trend business conditions is broadly based. Of note, the survey reports that conditions have eased in recent months in WA, mirroring the trend in the mining sector, as commodity prices moderate. Over the past three months, conditions in Qld are reportedly the softest of any of the states.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191210BullAustralianBusinessConditions2019Nov.pdf">'Australian business conditions November' (PDF 201kb)</a>
ANDREW HANLAN is a senior economist for Westpac 
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Australian business conditions & confidence stablise: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The business conditions index decreased 3pts to +1 in 2019 Q2 continuing the downtrend since early 2018 and is now just below average.
Business confidence rose sharply, lifting to +6 index points after a 0 index point reading in Q1. 
The down trend in conditions continued in Q2 2019, and for the first time since 2014 the quarterly survey has now shown a below average readying.
The decline in conditions suggests the business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year and that we are unlikely to see a substantial pickup in growth in the Q2 national accounts.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%20table%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%20table%20.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: NAB
The strong lift in confidence appears to be related to the outcome of the Federal election, with the bulk of the survey conducted post election day and also around the time of firming expectations of rate cuts.
Based on the June Monthly Business survey we already know this effect was short-lived with confidence pulling back.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%201.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: NAB
The decline in conditions has been broad-based over the past year, with all industries seeing a decline and the slowdown evident across all states. 
Mining continues to see the most favourable conditions, while retail and property are now weakest.
Across the states, NSW and VIC are only just positive, while the other mainland states are at the threshold of improving versus deteriorating.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%202.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: NAB
Unfortunately, there is evidence of a softening in activity almost everywhere. All industries have weakened and the pull-back is evident in all states. 
Given the current focus on labour market developments for the future path of monetary policy, the slowing growth momentum and softness in leading indicators of employment warrant close watching.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%203.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: NAB
In the quarter, current and expected employment measures all deteriorated – though all remain above average.
The share of firms reporting difficulty in finding suitable labour as a constraint on output ticked up in the quarter, and is elevated, but below pre-GFC levels. Over the past year, this measure has tracked broadly side-ways.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%204.jpg" alt="">
Source: NAB
Overall, it appears that while there is some tightness in some sectoral labour markets (e.g. mining) it is not yet tight enough nor broadly enough based to see significant nationwide wage rises. 
For now, the survey suggests ongoing employment growth but given the recent trends in the forward-looking measures, we will continue to watch closely. Our worry is that the slowdown in activity may translate into a more substantial weakening in labour demand.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%205.jpg" alt="">
Source: NAB
Overall, price and wage measures in the survey continued to suggest weak inflationary pressures in the economy.
Output prices growth edged lower in the quarter and input prices growth and the wage bill tracked sideways – all at a low level.
Declining capacity utilisation and weak surveyed price measures suggest that inflation outcomes are likely to be meek for some time.
The impact of labour demand on wage growth will remain an important dynamic in this sense – with slack already evident in the labour market, any weakening in labour demand could well see further action from the RBA on rates to bolster the economy.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/nab%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/nab%206.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: NAB
ALAN OSTER is NAB's Chief Economist.
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Business sector losing momentum with quick turnaround unlikely: NAB's Alan Oster

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Frasers Property Limited (“Frasers Property” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”), today announced the formation of an integrated industrial and logistics platform.
It will combine its industrial and logistics operations in Australia and Europe, and asset and property management in relation to the Group’s Singapore-listed Frasers Logistics &amp; Industrial Trust (“FLT”).
 The integrated industrial and logistics platform will become a strategic business unit representing SGD $5.4 billion assets. 
It is expected to report as a discrete strategic business unit in FY2020.
 The integrated platform will be led by Reini Otter (pictured above) as Chief Executive Officer and Matt Knox (pictured below) as Chief Financial Officer (CFO), who have both been promoted from Frasers Property’s Australian operations.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/10/Matt%20Knox%20-%20Frasers%20Property%20Australia.jpg" alt="">
“Our industrial and logistics business in Australia and Europe has grown rapidly over the past five years, from S$1.6 billion to S$5.4 billion1,2. We are building upon our multi-national industrial and logistics capabilities to better support the Group’s growing investment in this asset class for the long-term, in a focused and integrated fashion,” said Panote Sirivadhanabhakdi, Group Chief Executive Officer. 
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The manager of FLT will remain under the leadership of Robert Wallace as Chief Executive Officer.
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Frasers Property to form $5.4 billion integrated industrial and logistics platform

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The Perth-based sandalwood company Quintis has collapsed, with KordaMentha now in administration, following Friday’s decision by a US fund manager to exercise an option demanding Quintis buy back $37 million of sandalwood plantations.
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“The company does not have the financial resources available to it to pay the put option price and the directors have therefore resolved to appoint Richard Tucker, Scott Langdon and John Bumbak of KordaMentha as voluntary administrators of Quintis and its Australian subsidiaries,” Quintis said in a statement.
“We are very disappointed with this outcome given the huge efforts made over the last nine months to recapitalise the company in order to deliver its sustainable future,” Quintis chairman Dalton Gooding said.
It is understood noteholders with $US250 million invested in Quintis intend to appoint receivers and managers from McGrathNicol, over the administrators to protect their interests.
Quintis owns more than 3000 hectares of Indian sandalwood plantations across Australia’s north and manages a further 2000ha on behalf of other investors and growers.
The collapse of the high-flier, which had previously used former cricketer Adam Gilchist and F1 star Daniel Ricciardo to promote its business, follows failed hopes for a recapitalisation or buyout needed to survive.
The former cricketing great Gilchrist and F1 racing ace Daniel Ricciardo proudly announcing themselves as Quintis ambassadors in early 2016. 
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The pair met in 2015 through listed sandalwood producer TFS Corporation, which was rebranded Quintis, which Gilchrist sat on the board of until 2014. 
In December 2016, Quintis shares topped $1.70, valuing the group at nearly $700 million. Its shares last traded at 29.5¢.
Its former managing director Frank Wilson has been critical of Quintis’ financial performance since he left to pursue a buyout in March last year.
The local paper reported on the weekend Wilson was involved in an angry clash with a company executive at a western suburbs shopping centre last year.
Wilson alleged Quintis reacted to the confrontation by delaying site tours organised for Wilson as part of the due diligence associated with his proposed buyout of the company, citing its duty of care to employees.
Timbercorp, a MIS that had 18,500 investors invest into $2bn worth of tax effective timber projects over 17 years, was an earlier collapse in 2009.
Investors were advised that a TFS investment of $9,405 got 35 trees, that equates to 700kg of heartwood which could sell for $135 per kg giving $94,500, reflecting an internal rate of return of 15%, but then paying $605 per lot per annum with an expected year of harvest 2032 (15 years). 
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Daniel Ricciardo-promoted Quintis sandalwood company collapses  

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/66990/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Deciding on the best way to divvy up a business when the owners decide to go their own ways can be tricky.
It has to be fair in the eyes of everyone involved, but what if everyone has different expectations?
When people first form a business partnership, they’re often advised to sign a binding contract that specifies how the assets will be divided in the event of death, disability, divorce or departure. This is similar to a prenuptial agreement couples sign before they get married.
However it’s often not practical to sell the business to a third party and divide the proceeds. The partners may have skills or knowledge that make the business less valuable to a third party than to them. 
So we’ve developed another way of dissolving business relationships - through an auction.
<h2>The different ways of dividing</h2>
In the United States the most common exit mechanism for two-person, equal-share partnerships is the “Texas shootout”. The partner who wishes to dissolve the partnership triggers a shootout by naming their price. The other partner is then compelled to either buy out their partner or sell their own interest at that price.
A Texas shootout is like a “divide and choose” mechanism used by parents everywhere to split a piece of cake between two children. This is where one child divides the cake and the other child chooses which piece to take.
Divide and choose has the compelling feature that each child can guarantee themselves at least half the cake. By cutting the cake in what he regards as two equal pieces, the divider gets half the cake. By choosing the “larger” piece, the chooser gets what she regards to be at least half the cake.
Likewise, in a Texas shootout each partner can guarantee they capture at least half of the value they place on the whole partnership. A partner who names a price that leaves him indifferent to whether his partner buys or sells is guaranteed to receive half of his value on the partnership. Likewise, his partner, by simply taking the best deal cannot leave with less than 50% of her value.
However, the Texas shootout is unattractive for a number of reasons. For starters, the procedure does not easily scale if there are more than two joint owners. Nor does it treat the partners symmetrically. 
This point can be illustrated with a simple example. Suppose that Ann’s value for the partnership is $10, Bob’s value for the partnership is $16, and suppose, further, that each knows the other’s value. 
If Ann triggers the shootout, she should propose a price of $8. Bob will buy her out, and she gets $8. On the other hand, if Bob triggers the shootout, he should propose a price of $5, which Ann should accept. 
This way Ann is better off if she triggers the shootout, because she captures $8 rather than $5 – which may lead Ann to trigger the shootout if she fears Bob will trigger it.
Finally, if each partner is uncertain of how highly the other values the partnership, then the buyer in the shootout may not be the partner who values it most highly. 
Suppose Ann, for example, knows that Bob values the partnership more highly than she does but is uncertain of what that value is. If there’s a possibility that Bob values the partnership very highly, it may be optimal for Ann to name a price so high that there is some risk Bob will choose to sell rather than buy.
<h2>The auction method</h2>
So, we have developed a new method – called a “compensation auction” – which avoids the negative features of the Texas shootout while retaining the attractive feature that each partner can guarantee themselves an equal share of the value for the business.
The auction takes place over several rounds. At the beginning of each round, the amount of compensation is set to zero. 
Compensation is then increased continuously, until one of the partners agrees to take this amount of compensation in return for giving up his claim to the business. This partner exits, and a new round begins. 
The process is then repeated until only one partner remains. That partner is awarded the business and he pays each of the others their individualised compensation.
For example, suppose that Ann, Bob and Cathy wish to dissolve their business partnership. In the first round of the auction, compensation rises until Ann becomes the first to drop out, at $8. She surrenders her claim to the partnership and receives $8. Bob and Cathy remain to participate in the second round. 
Compensation is set to zero and then increases continuously. Suppose Bob then agrees to accept compensation when it reaches $6. Cathy buys the business, paying $14 in compensation – $8 to Ann and $6 to Bob.
The rules of the compensation auction treat the partners symmetrically, with no partner having a special role. The auction accommodates any number of players and is also efficient.
In addition, each partner can also guarantee themselves an equal share of his or her value for the business. To illustrate, suppose in the example above that Ann’s value for the business is $15 and she follows the plan of accepting compensation if it reaches $5 (that is, a third of her value). 
There are two possible outcomes: the first is that she accepts compensation of $5 at either the first or second round, getting a third of her value; the alternative is that she buys the partnership after Bob and Cathy have both dropped out, each having accepted less than $5 as compensation. 
In the latter case, Ann gets the business (which she values at $15) and pays at most $10 in compensation, obtaining a net value of at least $5.
The compensation auction therefore ensures each partner can capture an equal share of their value for the partnership. The compensation auction is “fair” in that it treats the partners symmetrically, takes into account any number of partners and is efficient.
John Wooders is professor of Economics at New York University Abu Dhabi and Distinguished Research Professor, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-wooders-172104" target="_blank">here</a>.
Matt Van Essen is professor of Economics, University of Alabama and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matt-van-essen-308206" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Property 101: Why auctions are a better way to resolve business splits

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest NAB Monthly Business Survey suggests the apparent recovery in the non-mining economy has remained on track, with business conditions holding up at above average levels for the past nine months. 
The NAB Business Conditions Index remained at +10 points in the month of November – the fourth consecutive month of conditions at this level – which is well above its long-term average (+5 points). 
Click to enlarge
<img src="/images/2015/12/8/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-08%20at%2011.41.34%20AM.png" alt="">
This is basically another strong result for the NAB Survey, which in conjunction with signs of improvement in the labour market, means we can put more faith in the building non-mining sector recovery”. 
Interest rate and AUD sensitive industries have generally outperformed, while improvements in areas such as retail in November are an encouraging sign that the recovery is becoming more entrenched. In contrast, mining continues to weaken. This is also reflected in variations across states. 
“In fact, the survey is showing a widening gap between deteriorating mining/mining services (-21) and the rest of the economy” said Mr Oster. 
However, business confidence has been disappointingly muted, despite recouping some of the losses from last month. The confidence index rose from +3 to +5, which is still marginally below its long-run average. 
According to Mr Oster, “Given improved prospects for the domestic economy outside of mining, relatively subdued confidence is most likely a reflection of the uncertain global economic environment. In any case, it was good to see a broad-based increase in confidence across industries”. 
NAB’s measure of capacity utilisation eased back in November (to 80.9% from 81.2%), despite better trading conditions. The decline in capacity utilisation was particularly heavy in the mining industry, but mixed elsewhere. 
“Capacity utilisation is a useful measure of the underlying health of the economy. It eased a little this month, but the trend remains distinctly positive, which bodes well for business investment and the labour market” said Mr Oster. 
NAB continues to see no change to the RBA cash rate in coming months. The RBA’s recent policy statement continues to reference a “gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors” and further easing would require a significant deterioration in the economic outlook or a reassessment of growth in the non-mining economy. Today’s survey suggests maintaining the status quo
 
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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