Australian Economy

EXPERT INSIGHT

Despite overwhelmingly endorsing the general stance of the 2021 budget, only a few of the 56 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are prepared to give it top marks.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg&rsquo;s objective of <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/budget-speech-2021-22">securing Australia&rsquo;s economic recovery and building for the future</a>, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an &lsquo;A&rsquo;.

But a very large 41% awarded it either an A or a B, up from <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-do-better-top-australian-economists-award-the-budget-a-cautious-pass-148624">37%</a> in last year&rsquo;s October COVID budget.

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The economists chosen to take part in the Economic Society of Australia survey have been recognised by their peers as Australia&rsquo;s leaders in fields including macroeconomics, economic modelling, housing and budget policy.

Among them are a former head of Australia&rsquo;s prime minister&rsquo;s department, a former member of the Reserve Bank board, a former OECD director and two former frontbenchers, one from Labor and one from the Coalition.

Of the panel members who commented on the historic stance of the budget &mdash; expanding the size of the deficit <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-spends-the-bounty-to-drive-unemployment-to-new-lows-159229">beyond what it would have been</a> in order to drive down unemployment &mdash; all but three offered enthusiastic endorsement.

Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson of the University of Adelaide commended the government for at last turning its back on a &ldquo;debt and deficit&rdquo; mantra, that was &ldquo;never justified&rdquo;.

Professor Richard Holden praised the &ldquo;watershed&rdquo;. In due course there should be increased attention paid to the structure and quality of spending, but for now we should applaud the &ldquo;Frydenberg Pivot&rdquo;.

Saul Eslake said the strategy of providing further stimulus to push unemployment down to levels <a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenberg-has-the-opportunity-to-transform-australia-permanently-lowering-unemployment-156175">not seen consistently since the first half of the 1970s</a> was the right one. It meant the Reserve Bank and the treasury would no longer be working at &ldquo;cross purposes&rdquo; as they had been for most of the past two decades.

But Eslake said the budget fell short in the A$20 billion it devoted to tax concessions for small business in the mistaken and unfounded belief it is &ldquo;the engine room of the economy&rdquo; and in housing measures that failed to heed warnings from history about the risks of ultra-high loan-to-valuation ratios.

Rebecca Cassells of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said the claim that 60,000 jobs would flow from extending the temporary loss carry back and full expensing tax concessions was &ldquo;a stretch,&rdquo; with the connection quite tenuous.

Bucks, but not the biggest bang

Consultant Nicki Hutley said a bigger boost to the JobSeeker unemployment payment would have achieved much more than the $7.8 billion one-year extension of the &ldquo;<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-low-and-middle-income-tax-offset-has-been-extended-yet-again-it-delivers-help-neither-when-nor-where-its-needed-160772">lamington</a>&rdquo; low and middle income tax offset.

Economic modeller Janine Dixon said while spending more to get more people into work was the &ldquo;right setting for the times,&rdquo; Australia had to ensure its workforce was ready to supply the extra aged care and child care and disability services it had funded by delivering the right training, especially in the absence of migration, which has traditionally been used to address workforce shortages.

Labour market specialist Elisabetta Magnani said measures to boost wages in the caring occupations could have achieved the double bonus of drawing more workers into those occupations and shrinking the gender pay gap, given that more than 80% of the workers in residential aged care are female.

Little for net-zero

Michael Keating, a former head of the prime minister&rsquo;s department, said restoring high wage growth would require big investments in education and training, which sits oddly with the cuts in funding for universities. The extra funding for apprentices and trainees only makes up for past cuts.

Professor Gigi Foster said the $1.7 billion spent on childcare subsidies was only &ldquo;surface-level fiddling with the sticker price&rdquo;.

&ldquo;Where is the supply-side intervention required to make childcare services sustainably accessible and of high quality?&rdquo; she asked. &ldquo;Childcare should be viewed as social infrastructure. Instead, when we heard infrastructure, it was mainly code for transportation.&rdquo;

Margaret Nowak of Curtin University said a budget that really &ldquo;built for the future&rdquo; would not have focused on the &ldquo;infrastructure of the past&rdquo;. Professor Richardson lamented that most of the infrastructure spending was on traditional &ldquo;roads and ports&rdquo; when the future was net-zero emissions.

&ldquo;There is little in the budget that supports this transformation,&rdquo; she said. &ldquo;It is an extraordinary lost opportunity.

Nicki Hutley said retooling the economy for zero emissions would have brought forth &quot;more jobs, higher wages, more growth and private sector co-investment&rdquo;.

Some concern about debt

Former OECD director Adrian Blundell-Wignall said a much-greater investment in vaccinations would have helped &ldquo;get the economy back to work and the borders opened sooner which, in turn, would have saved unemployment benefits, tourism, aviation support and the need for the extension of temporary measures&rdquo;.

And he was concerned that a jump in US inflation might cause international interest rates to rise faster than expected, forcing Australia to cut its projected budget deficits in order to stabilise net debt.

Former International Monetary Fund economist Tony Makin, a <a href="https://research.treasury.gov.au/external-paper/the-effectiveness-of-federal-fiscal-policy-a-review">critic</a> of government spending during the global financial crisis, described the budget spending as a &ldquo;knee-jerk primitive Keynesian reaction&rdquo; to the COVID recession.

Unease about going into debt to keep and create jobs aside (and very few of the economists surveyed shared Makin&rsquo;s unease) the criticisms of the economists surveyed relate to execution and details. If Frydenberg had been judged on his approach, most would have given him an A.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks-161347">original article</a>.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s objective of securing Australia’s economic recovery and building for the future, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an A

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Economists decline to give budget top marks

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

On the one hand it points out that: “In an environment of accommodative financial conditions with rising asset prices it is particularly important that there is not excessive risk-taking by the financial sector ... increasing the debt-related risks to the economy and financial system from a fall in asset prices and borrowers’ income.”

The Bank describes these risks as: “looser lending standards for individual loan assessments, or a relaxation of internal limits on the share of riskier loans ... [or from] increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers which could see a deterioration in the average quality of new lending”.

This last style of risk appears to be with investors in mind.

To date, however, the Bank describes lending standards as largely unchanged and remaining robust: “the share of high LVR lending increased over the second half of 2020 but remains low by historical standards.”

Furthermore: “credit growth has increased but remains modest and has mostly been driven by lending to owner occupiers" although “investor loan commitments have started to rise.”

Our own analysis of loan approvals points to investor commitments rising by 31% in the last six months compared to gains of 24% for 'upgraders' and 30% for first home buyers.

However the loan approvals to investors account for around 32% of the total housing loans (including all owner occupiers) compared to 65% in 2017 when APRA introduced a range of controls aimed at curtailing investor activity.

On the other hand the Bank points out the solid starting point that will support the resilience of the system to the potential “increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers”. It highlights the improved quality of household balance sheets in the wake of higher house prices (“the share of loans for which the value of the loan exceeds the value of the property has fallen to around 1.25% down from 3% a year ago”).

Household balance sheets also remain in good shape from the perspective of repayment buffers ("Around half of all mortgages have prepayment buffers equivalent to more than 3 months' worth of repayments and, 
for more than one-quarter of loans the buffer exceeds 2 years' worth of repayments" while "the share of loans with prepayment buffers of only one month ... remains close to its pre pandemic level of 40%” and “most loans with low prepayments do not represent large risks to lenders”).

Around two thirds of those with low prepayment buffers are held by investors and/or fixed- rate borrowers with the remaining group of relatively 'risky' borrowers having declined to around 10% of all loans from 15% a year ago.

Other specific risks have also eased. In particular, housing loans on prepayment deferrals have declined to 0.7% of all housing loans from a peak of 11% in May 2020.

House price movements to date are also put into perspective – Sydney and Melbourne prices are now a little above their historical peaks in 2017/18, having risen by 5% over the year compared to the 11% increase in regional areas.

Westpac has forecast national dwelling prices to rise by around 20% over the course of 2021 and 2022. That would put Sydney and Melbourne prices 12–15% above their 2017 peaks by end 2022 – an annual rate of increase of 2–3%, hardly worthy of being described in the emotional vernacular as a 'bubble'.

While the FSR sketches out the risks to the economy of lending excesses associated with rising house prices, current observations point to lenders remaining well disciplined while, at the same time, household balance sheets have strengthened.

The overall impression from the Review is that authorities are some way from seeing the need to adopt any direct controls on lenders to address risks associated with rising house prices.

Westpac continues to expect no significant containment measures in 2021.

The FSR also highlights risks around the outlook for business insolvencies and commercial property.

1. Business insolvencies

Businesses in the arts and recreation, accommodation and food, and transport sectors have continued to receive significant support from the government. Firms in these sectors also tend to be more highly geared and have low levels of liquidity.

The highest risks in these areas are around SMEs (although the share of SMEs with deferred repayments has fallen to just over 1%).

Notwithstanding this, the Review expects insolvencies to rise further for some months although some factors are likely to help moderate the rise – cash supports that allowed businesses to wind down operations without entering into insolvency.

Changes to the insolvency framework and the recently announced SME Recovery Loan Scheme are expected to assist SMEs.

2. Commercial Property – Offices

The FSR notes: “impairment rates on commercial property remain low, consistent with relatively low LVRs and strong debt covenants”.

However these impairments are expected to rise in the CBD office markets where vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne have reached 20 year highs.

The low number of sales transactions increases the uncertainty about recent price trends.

3. Commercial Property – Retail

Rents and valuations have declined by 6 and 15% respectively since 2019 – particularly challenged by the rise of online shopping.

However the dominance of the large real estate investment trusts in this sector significantly reduces contagion risks. Nearly all REIT securities are held by institutions. They entered the pandemic in good financial health with low gearing and were well-placed to absorb the earnings reductions from rent waivers.

Bill Evans is the Chief Economist a Westpac
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The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Review has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

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RBA's Financial Stability Review notes risks but no immediate alarms around housing: Bill Evans

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2021 is shaping up as very difficult for universities, as well as the <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-papers/Documents/ValueInternationalEd.pdf">more than 130,000 people</a> whose jobs rely on the international education sector.

In October 2019 almost <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-arrivals-and-departures-australia/latest-release#arrivals-international-students">51,000 new and returning international students</a> arrived in Australia. In October 2020, this figure had fallen by 99.7% — to just 130.

The Mitchell Institute <a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/sites/default/files/issues-brief-international-students-covid.pdf">has previously estimated</a> about 36% of annual international student spending is on property and another 36% is on hospitality and retail. The large drop in international students inside Australia means the many businesses and property owners that rely on international students will continue to suffer.

Australian states had plans to trial the return of some students with quarantine arrangements in place. These <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">included returning</a> 300 international students to South Australia, 350 to the ACT, and setting aside up to 1,000 quarantine places per week in NSW for international students and temporary migrants. Other states hadn’t specified their plans.

But the NSW effort to bring back international students <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hard-to-see-a-safe-corridor-nsw-shelves-plan-for-return-of-international-students-20210107-p56scz">has stalled</a>, while the ACT is still waiting for approval from the Commonwealth and South Australia’s plan has not been finalised. Only the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/when-can-international-students-return-to-australia-here-s-a-state-wise-update">Northern Territory has succeeded</a> in bringing back 63 international students since the borders closed to temporary visa holders in March last year.

But even if all the states had progressed with their plans, there would be nowhere near the amount of international students needed to stem the economic shortfall.

<h2>Fewer students coming in than going out</h2>

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the international education sector differs to other parts of our economy. Employment in industries such as retail and hospitality <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">have recovered slightly</a> from the initial COVID-19 shock.

But the international education sector continues to decline and is yet to reach its lowest point.

While the situation is bleak, there are encouraging signs for renewal.

The concepts of stock (the number of current students) and flow (the number of new students) help understand the nature of the problems facing the international education sector.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the stock of enrolled international students has become smaller as they finish their courses.

In October 2019, <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">580,202 international students</a> were enrolled in Australian courses. By October 2020, this had reduced by 13% to 502,206.

The stock has shrunk because the pandemic has interrupted the flow of new international students. This means there are fewer new students replacing those finishing their courses.

There is still some flow of new students into courses. For instance, between July and October 2020 <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_CommencementsOctober2020.pdf">about 25,000 new international students started a course</a> in Australia. But this is much lower than the 100,000 during the same period in 2019.

And from now on, the stock of enrolled international students is likely to continue to fall much more quickly than the flow of new students.

According to <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">Australian government data</a>, about 120,000 international students, or 24% of the enrolled cohort, were due to finish their course between October 2020 and January 2021. With borders remaining closed there is unlikely to be enough students to replace them.

<h2>Students outside Australia aren’t spending in the economy</h2>

Compounding the problem is that many international student visa holders are outside Australia. In the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">2019 calendar year</a>, international education contributed more than $40 billion to the Australian economy. At the end of December 2020, 158,014 out of 543,522 visa holders were not in the country. This means they will not be spending in the wider Australian economy.

The graph below uses Australian government data to show the location of international student visa holders inside and outside Australia since the start of the pandemic. The number of international student visa holders inside Australia has steadily declined.

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<iframe class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" frameborder="0" height="400px" id="SrYXY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SrYXY/3/" style="border: none" width="100%"></iframe>

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The number of international student visa holders inside Australia at the end of 2020 (around 385,000) had dropped by almost 195,000 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/student-temporary-grad-program-report-june-2020.pdf">compared to October 2019</a>.

The trials to bring back international students were mostly addressing the issue of existing students (the stock) stranded overseas. Even if they were successful, they would not have had a substantial impact on restarting the flow of new international students into Australia.

<h2>What’s the economic impact?</h2>

Universities have been affected greatly by the crisis. In 2019, universities <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-publications/resources/2019-higher-education-providers-finance-tables">reported A$9.8 billion in revenue</a> from international students. Throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/melbourne-losses-not-bad-predicted">losses may have been somewhat contained</a> as international students were still finishing their courses.

However, the continued reduction in the stock of international students means 2021 should be the year the financial impact of the crisis will bite.

More than 40% of the sector’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">annual student revenue</a> now comes from international students.

Based on a reduction of 30% in higher education international students who have either <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/Documents/RS_2021ReturningStudents.pdf">finished or scheduled to finish</a> their courses before 2021, the university sector can expect at least a A$3 billion reduction in international student revenue this year compared to 2019.

Modelling by Universities Australia shows by 2023, <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-what-australian-universities-can-do-to-recover-from-the-loss-of-international-student-fees-139759">universities stand to lose A$16 billion</a> due to the loss of international students. Previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">modelling by the Mitchell Institute</a> shows universities stand to lose up to A$19 billion by 2023.

It is not just a university problem. The graph below shows the enormous growth in the international education sector. It uses data from the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-supplementary-information-calendar-year/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS) and breaks down the economic contribution into two groups, tuition fees, and goods and services.

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<iframe class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" frameborder="0" height="400px" id="TDab3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TDab3/2/" style="border: none" width="100%"></iframe>

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In 2019, the ABS estimates 57% of the A$40 billion that international education contributed to the Australian economy, or A$22.8 billion, came in the form of goods and services spent in the wider economy.

<a href="https://www.vu.edu.au/mitchell-institute/tertiary-education/australia-to-lose-half-its-international-students-by-mid-2021">Research from the Mitchell Institute</a> has previously estimated if borders remained closed by mid-2021 there would be a 50% reduction in the number of international student visa holders inside Australia. This would roughly equate to an annual reduction of about A$11.4 billion in spending in the broader economy.

<h2>Green shoots of renewal</h2>

Despite the extraordinary challenges, there are positive signs. Visa application data shows people are still applying for international student visas.

The graph below compares monthly student visa approvals between January 2018 and November 2020. It excludes those whose last visa was a student visa, to better capture new applicants instead of current students extending or changing their visa.

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<iframe class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" frameborder="0" height="400px" id="Vs9nA" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Vs9nA/1/" style="border: none" width="100%"></iframe>

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This graph shows there has been a sharp drop in approvals since April 2020. In April, there was a 78% drop from the number of approvals the year before and an 83% drop in May. However, there has been some stabilisation. In November 2020, visa approvals were around 38% what they were the year before — a drop of 62%.

The fact there are still a significant number of applications and approvals in the current environment is a testament to how Australia remains an attractive prospect for many international students.

It suggests that if the international education sector can weather the storm of 2021, better times await in 2022 and beyond.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153180/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">original article</a>.
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2021 is the year Australia's international student crisis really bites

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The coronavirus's economic toll in numbers: Guy Debelle

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Despite economists forecasting a decline, the Australian economy grew 0.5 per cent in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the December quarter 2019, according to figures released by the ABS.
It takes the economic growth to 2.2 per cent through the year.
“The economy has continued to grow and picked up through the year, however the rate of growth remains below the long run average", ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said.
Domestic demand remained subdued with 0.1 per cent growth in the December quarter. 
A pick up in household discretionary spending and continued increases in the provision of government services was dampened by falls in dwelling and private business investment.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the narrative is still unchanged.
"Private sector demand is extremely soft it's public spending, inventories and net exports keeping growth afloat, monetary easing hasn't been effective on the real economy as yet", Joiner tweeted.
Dwelling investment continued to fall, retracting a further 3.4 per cent, the sixth consecutive fall. 
It was consistent with the decline in the construction industry value added which fell 2.3 per cent.
There was a large rise in ownership transfer costs due to the resurgence of the housing market. During the December quarter transfer costs were up 12.3 per cent to be 6.5 per cent up through the year.
 
 
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Economy grows 0.5 per cent in December quarter 2019, but growth still below long run average

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Economists at ANZ and National Australia Bank are tipping the economy will shrink in the first three months of this year as the coronavirus and bushfires weigh down an already soft Australian economy.
The bearish assessments come as RBA governor Philip Lowe said he would be surprised it the economy shrunk in the March quarter.
ANZ estimates the impact of the coronavirus will slash 0.5 of a percentage point off March quarter gross domestic product and a smaller hit from the bushfires.
The bank forecasts the economy to contract 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, before recovering later in the year.
<div>
"The understandable travel ban in place in Australia on all foreign nationals who have been in China, as well as airline cancellations, will act to sharply reduce the level of tourist arrivals," ANZ economists said in a research note.
"There is a very wide range of uncertainties around the outlook. The virus’s timeline, the behaviour of non-China tourism, the impact on broader Chinese and global growth, and the degree to which Australians limit their travel abroad.
"While the hit to near-term growth is large, we expect the number of arrivals from China to turn around in Q2, with the rebound in tourism adding to growth in Q3 and Q4.
"Consequently, the impact on year-end growth is likely to be small."
NAB chief economist Alan Oster is also expecting a negative March quarter, suggesting that the effects of the coronavirus and bushfires will hit consumption levels, which he expects to be lower than what most economists forecast.
"We haven't put a number on it but we expect GDP to go negative in the March quarter. The question will be: is it a big negative or a small negative?"
While not officially forecasting a negative December quarter, Mr Oster said.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian economy expected to shrink for first three months of 2020: ANZ, NAB

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian economy is tepid, with consumer spending the weakest in ten years, business investment shrinking, and economic growth too weak to cover population growth.
Were it not for very strong growth in export income and the biggest surge in government spending in 15 years, the economy would have shrunk.
The Treasury believes the Australian economy is capable of growing at a sustained annual pace of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/myefo-treasury-downgrades-its-budget-projections-20151124-gl6mfd" target="_blank">2.75%</a>. The growth rate in the past financial year of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">1.4%</a> reported on Wednesday is only half that.
Not since September 2009 has the gap between what the Australian economy is capable of and what it has been delivering been so wide. 2009 was the year of the global financial crisis.
Real GDP growth
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290848/original/file-20190904-175710-w8sxqs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290848/original/file-20190904-175710-w8sxqs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
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Economic growth has rarely been as low as 1.4% outside of a recession.
When account is taken of population growth, income and production per citizen went backwards. The last time that happened was during the financial crisis. The last time before that was during the early 1990s recession.
Household spending, which accounts for more than half of total spending, also failed to keep pace with population growth. The inflation-adjusted growth rate of 1.4% was also the lowest since the financial crisis.
<hr>
Growth in household consumption
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290854/original/file-20190904-175682-1td1jy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290854/original/file-20190904-175682-1td1jy.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
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Other figures released on Tuesday show retail spending dipped a further 0.1% in July.
Hardest hit in the 2018-19 financial year was spending on cars. Updated figures released at the same time as the national accounts show sales of new cars down 10% over the year to August.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said he preferred to think that households were delaying rather than abandoning purchases of cars, waiting until the economic outlook was clearer.
<hr>
Growth in consumption by category
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290863/original/file-20190904-175710-1vl9blt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290863/original/file-20190904-175710-1vl9blt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> June quarter 2019. Note: Discretionary consumption is as classified by Treasury. Commonwealth Treasury
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Weighing on consumers is an extended period of unusually low wage growth that the national accounts show has brought the share of national income paid out as wages down to just about its lowest point since 1964.
Although the wage and superannuation bill increased, climbing 5% over the year as employment grew, the share of national income paid out as wages and super fell to 52% – the lowest since the global financial crisis, and before that the lowest since the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/the-beatles-let-it-be-in-australia-1964-20140606-zrvui" target="_blank">Beatles toured Australia</a> and Donald Horne published <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-lucky-country-9781742531571" target="_blank">The Lucky Country</a>.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290879/original/file-20190904-175705-mnrpnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290879/original/file-20190904-175705-mnrpnw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5206.0Jun%202019?OpenDocument">ABS 5206.0, Table 35</a>
<hr>
Also weighing on consumers has been housing. Investment in housing (including alterations and additions) was down 9.1% over the year. Business investment fell 10%.
Company profits grew 12.8%, but leaving aside mining companies, whose profits grew strongly on the back of higher prices and export volumes, other profits grew only weakly, climbing 1.8%.
Mining income pushed up nominal GDP (the raw dollars unadjusted for prices that drive nominal incomes) up a healthy 5.4%, probably delivering the government a budget surplus one year earlier than promised, in 2018-19. Frydenberg said he already knew the result and would unveil it in a fortnight. His smiles suggested it’s one he likes.
<hr>
Nominal GDP growth
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290883/original/file-20190904-175678-1e6pzpc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290883/original/file-20190904-175678-1e6pzpc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Commonwealth Treasury
<hr>
Mining income also pushed up what the Reserve Bank regards as the best measure of actual living standards, which (perhaps surprisingly) is not GDP per capita, which is going backwards, but a lesser known and purpose-designed measure known as “real net disposable income per capita”. It grew a healthy 2.65% over the year and a very healthy 1% over the quarter.
It is true that much of it was paid out in mining profits, but it is also true that it isn’t necessarily right to latch on to the cruder measure of GDP per capita and say that living standards are going backwards.
Helping maintain living standards was a very healthy growth in government spending, the highest for some time – not government infrastructure spending, that actually fell over the year as some state projects wound up, but day-to-day spending on things such as the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290908/original/file-20190904-175686-un189b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5625.0Jun%202019?OpenDocument" target="_blank">ABS 5625.0, Table 2</a>
<hr>
Oddly, because of the way the national accounts work, economic growth was also helped by a slump in imports, down 2.8% over the year due largely to a slump in imports of consumer goods.
The economy is in a bad way. Aside from mining and government spending, the only real bright spot is employment growth, and as the Reserve Bank often points out, employment growth doesn’t tell us much about what’s going to happen.
It tends to lag everything else in the economy, by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/pdf/domestic-economic-conditions.pdf" target="_blank">up to nine months</a>. By the time it turns down, other things already have.
<h2>Few clear ways out</h2>
Frydenberg doesn’t seem too worried. For now he is banking on the tax cuts and the interest rate cuts in June and July to lift investment and spending.
The treasurer has two Plan Bs. One is an aggressive investment allowance for business. He <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-yourself-treasurer-frydenberg-tells-business-but-its-not-that-simple-122397" target="_blank">spoke about introducing one</a> last week, but on Wednesday he indicated that he wasn’t planning to do so until next year’s May budget. If needed, he could bring the date forward.
The other is another Reserve Bank rate cut, most likely at the board’s meeting on Melbourne Cup Day, by which time it will have before it an updated set of inflation figures.
Frydenberg revealed on Wednesday that he is taking a close look at the government’s contract with the Reserve Bank, a <a href="https://rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">formal written agreement</a> which is renewed after each election.
He has asked the Treasury to look at it to see whether it needs to be tightened to make the bank more responsive to the state of the economy. This would mean more boldly cutting or pushing up rates.
In Britain, if inflation is 1 percentage point above or below the Bank of England’s target, it has to write to the government to explain why.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122942/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin.</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-weve-the-weakest-economy-since-the-global-financial-crisis-with-few-clear-ways-out-122942" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Why we’ve the weakest economy since the global financial crisis, with few clear ways out

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A recession is formally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or negative growth in annual terms.
Australia has not had such an event since the early 1990’s. However there is ample evidence that the economy is weak:
1. GDP per capita has contracted over the year. 2. Consumer spending per capita has contracted over the year. 3. Private domestic demand has contracted over the year.
In terms of how the economy might “feel” to households, in particular, these measures certainly point to a downbeat economic climate.
But this is not a recession with the associated extreme pain for households, businesses, and institutions.
So why has Australia not experienced a technical recession since the early 1990’s?
Strong population growth: potential growth is measured as growth in the work force adjusted for productivity growth. Using the global benchmark of 1% for productivity growth, Australia’s potential growth rate is around 2.75% compared to the US of 1.75% and Europe of 1.2%. A high potential growth rate is some protection against a technical recession but, as discussed above, when measured on a per capita basis, Australia has experienced periods of negative growth.
At the times of major external shocks – GFC is the best example – Australia’s fiscal position has been in solid shape to accommodate a strong (“go hard; go households”) policy response which is further complemented by the automatic stabilisers (via lower tax and higher welfare payments). Australia’s budget position went from a surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2007/08 to a deficit of 4.2% of GDP in 2009/10. Australia’s surplus is currently estimated at around 0.5% of GDP in 2019/20 – lower than in 2007/08 but a surplus no less.
A flexible exchange rate – in the GFC and in the Asian Financial Crisis (1997/98) the AUD adjusted into the USD 0.50’s to offset the impact of the shock.
A flexible labour market also helped during the more recent shocks – employers tended to adjust hours worked rather than staffing levels, cushioning some of the ‘second round’ impacts on household incomes. The more rigid industrial relations systems that prevailed in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s made it more difficult to absorb cyclical shocks.
Compensating cycles: most recently, when the mining boom turned down the Australian economy was boosted by the state government infrastructure boom and the residential (mainly high rise) construction boom.
When it appeared that Australia was headed for two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction in 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q1, domestic demand did contract in those quarters (low point of the GFC) but GDP expanded in 2009 Q1 due to the impact on net exports of China’s massive post GFC stimulus package. With the media speculating on a technical recession, the announcement that Australia had avoided a technical recession saw a spectacular (8%) boost in Consumer Sentiment.
Government policy, apart from the fiscal stimulus, also helped Australia avoid a recession in the GFC as banks, whose access to offshore liquidity was under huge pressure, were able to purchase a Commonwealth government guarantee that allowed the rollover of existing short term debt (recall that in that period banks’ wholesale funding was around 60% of total liabilities)
Read the Westpac's full report '<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/September/er20190913BullARecession.pdf" target="_blank">Australia's record recession free run'</a>.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Australia's record recession free run looks set to continue: Bill Evans

Risks to the outlook: RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Our standard economic model says when labour is scarce, the cost of labour should increase. But something is broken. This is not happening.
Exactly two weeks before the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to a record low, the bank’s head, Philip Lowe, outlined a predicament to the Economic Society of Australia.
It is a global problem, in fact – and one no one really understands or knows how to fix. It is almost the exact opposite of the crisis that faced industrialised economies in the 1970s.
Four decades ago economies were hit by two malaises: on the one hand, stagnation, with unemployment rates high and rising; and on the other rampant inflation, with prices and wages growing ever faster.
Stagnation and inflation were not meant to occur at the same time. That they did so challenged to the core the post-Keynesian economic orthodoxy of the times. It was so baffling economists gave it a new term: stagflation.
“Today,” said Lowe, “the picture is very different: we have low unemployment and low inflation.”
No one has given it a name, and Lowe says it is better than stagflation, but it’s still a worry. For one thing, if <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/business/europe-ecb-wages-inflation" target="_blank">wages fail to rise</a> as the cost of assets such as housing keeps growing, we end up with greater inequality.
“Understanding why this has happened is a priority for us,” Lowe said.
Quite so. Experience shows the perils of seeking to fix something without knowing why it is broken. It can lead to a Kafkaesque outcome.
<h2>Against the law (of supply and demand)</h2>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278280/original/file-20190606-2759-evrvh3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278280/original/file-20190606-2759-evrvh3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Standard supply and demand curves. <a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=741993" target="_blank">Paweł Zdziarski /Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC</a>
The driving force behind any macroeconomic reasoning is the law of supply and demand. In short, if the supply of something increases, but demand does not, those trying to sell it will make discounts, and its price will go down. Conversely, if demand for something increases but supply does not, wannabe buyers will outbid each other to secure the good, and its price will go up (as illustrated right).
Given this basic law of economics, the combination of low unemployment and no wage growth baffles economists.
Low unemployment means labour is in high demand and excess labour (people looking for jobs) scarce. That should mean that employers need to offer more money to attract employees. So we would expect low unemployment to always be accompanied by an increase in the price of labour (the wage).
This relationship was first outlined by the New Zealand economist A.W. (Bill) Phillips in <a href="http://www.economia.ufpr.br/Professores/54/Art_Phillips_1958.pdf" target="_blank">a paper published in 1958</a>. Below is his original scatter diagram showing the relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wage rates in Britain from 1861 to 1913.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278283/original/file-20190606-2754-15ozqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278283/original/file-20190606-2754-15ozqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Bill Phillips’ original scatter diagram of the rate of change of wage rates and the unemployment rate in Britain for the years 1861 to 1913. <a class="source" href="http://www.economia.ufpr.br/Professores/54/Art_Phillips_1958.pdf" target="_blank">A.W. Phillips, The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957</a>
<hr>
This relationship, now known as the Phillips curve, forms the basis for monetary policy – the use of interest rates to control money supply.
When unemployment is high, central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia lower interest rates to make borrowing easier. This results in greater spending in things like building a home or starting a business. Such investment increases the demand for labour.
Conversely, when unemployment is very low and wages start to grow out of control, the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates to make borrowing harder. This dampens economic activity and the demand for labour.
<h2>Bent, possibly broken</h2>
But somehow in recent times the Philips curve appears broken, and nobody knows why.
Australia’s reserve bank has been sitting on record low interest rates for three years, and yet <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/how-does-australia-end-wage-stagnation-20190408-p51byj" target="_blank">nothing at all </a> has happened to wages and inflation.
There are competing theories. One is that automation is to blame, by reducing the value of human labour. Others involve <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/opinion/robots-jobs" target="_blank">political changes</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/opinion/wage-stagnation-unemployment-economic-growth" target="_blank">market concentration</a> and the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/small-workplaces-corporate-profit-drive-wage-stagnation/10939564?section=analysis" target="_blank">gig economy</a> undercutting workers’ bargaining power.
Nobody knows which theory, if any, is right.
This should not come as a surprise. After all, it took economists and policy makers <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2011/10/11/thomas-sargent-rational-expectations-and-the-keynesian-consensus/#2ecbfbb7788f" target="_blank">almost a decade</a> to make sense of the 1970s stagnation.
But if circumstances take a dive, and people start demanding that something be done, we have a problem.
We don’t yet know what should be done. As Lowe <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-05-21" target="_blank">told the Economic Society of Australia</a>:
“We are still searching for the full answers… We can’t be sure how long these effects will last and whether the coexistence of low inflation and low unemployment is temporary, or whether it is a new normal.”
Translation: he is not really sure what we should do, but the situation is bad enough to try to do something.
If the Reserve Bank can’t fix the problem, economic commentators and the public will look to the government, perhaps through <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-policy/rba-finally-acts-to-stave-off-a-self-inflicted-recession-20190604-p51ubb" target="_blank">spending</a> more, or <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/a-sophisticated-nation-at-foot-of-asia-shouldn-t-rely-on-cheap-money-20190604-p51uc6" target="_blank">reducing taxes</a>.
Under pressure from a public demand for action, the danger is that politicians may take shots in the dark and deliver the wrong type of change.
<h2>Learning from Italy</h2>
The Italian experience in this regard is particularly instructive. It’s something that I and three Italian colleagues (Luigi Guiso, Claudio Michelacci and Massimo Morelli) have <a href="http://www.gratton.org/papers/WebertoKafka.pdf" target="_blank">documented</a>.
Political instability, strong pressure for reforms and short-lived governments have shifted Italy towards a Kafkaesque state where the bureaucracy wastes its time on frequently useless reforms.
Though Italy has a reputation as a land of eternal disorganisation, in the early 1990s its productivity was greater than Germany’s. On the downside, youth unemployment was high, and political corruption widespread. Voters demanded change.
Politicians responded with zeal. After 1992, the Italian parliament doubled the number of bills it passed each year, with new laws three times as long as old laws.
Within just a few election cycles new reforms began contradicting reforms passed a year or two earlier. Governments routinely attributed failures to previous governments and reforms. Voters lost track of who did what.
Nobody knew exactly what to do to solve the economic problems, and nobody knew how to evaluate the effect of individual reforms, because it was impossible to distinguish the effects of one reform from another.
In this new chaotic environment, incompetent politicians thrived, proposing ever more ambitious reforms – all useless.
Public infrastructure projects were started but never completed (<a href="http://www.mit.gov.it/comunicazione/news/opere-incompiute-sistema-informativo-di-monitoraggio-delle-opere-incompiute-0" target="_blank">647 of them, last time anybody counted</a>). New education programs have been introduced, only to be replaced by a newer programs; the high-school examination system is this year going through its third major overhaul in just 21 years. The failure to deliver essential services have buried city streets <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-28/rome-residents-protest-against-decline-of-italian-capital/10438758" target="_blank">in piles of garbage</a>.
The Italian experience is a warning tale for us all: when organisations change too much and too often, we lose the ability to track down results and ultimately generate chaos. This is even more true for the largest and most complex organisation of all – the state.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118397/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gabriele-gratton-457958" target="_blank">Gabriele Gratton</a>, Associate Professor of Economics and Scientia Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-economic-model-looks-broken-but-trying-to-fix-it-could-be-a-disaster-118397" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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