Asia Pacific

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Colliers International has released its Asia Pacific Market Snapshot Q2 2020 report, highlighting that activity and investor interest in Asia Pacific property markets remained robust in the second quarter.
Large-scale commercial and industrial transactions in multiple markets helped offset weakness in some other sectors, according to the multi-sector report, which examines the previous quarter’s property market performance in 19 Asia Pacific markets and provides forecasts for the current and upcoming quarters.
“We have observed emerging and encouraging signs of recovery in the region, which has been reflected in investor appetite and investment activity remaining fairly firm in the past quarter. These are highly encouraging upward trends that transactions are picking up against a backdrop of economic volatility and uncertainty,” Terence Tang, Managing Director of Capital Markets &amp; Investment Services Asia at Colliers International, said. 
The industrials sector, both logistics and technology centres, will continue to appeal to investors given the strong uptake of e-commerce and accelerated digital transformation across the region, while interest in quality office assets in major cities remain high. We are anticipating investment activity to gain pace in the coming months as investors move to take advantage of the opportunities that will emerge as economies further stabilise and markets bounce back.” 
“We are expecting an increase in investment activity in the second half of the year,” John Marasco, Managing Director of Capital Markets &amp; Investment Services Australia &amp; New Zealand, said. “Demand for office assets in Australia’s key cities should remain high as companies activate ‘return to office’ policies, while investors are also looking to buy into New Zealand.”
Singapore logistics, office properties shine 
Confidence and stability are expected to return to the market in the coming quarters, helped by government support measures and improving stock market conditions.   Big-ticket transactions returned to Singapore’s commercial and industrial property sectors despite the implementation of tough ‘circuit breaker’ measures that dented overall transaction volumes for the quarter. 
Australia still an investor favourite 
The second quarter saw the completion of several significant transactions in Australia’s major cities, including an AU$145 million (US$100.6 million) office deal in Melbourne that demonstrated sustained investor appetite for commercial property. Deal flows are expected to increase in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in the second half of the year as conditions normalise, given Australia’s enduring appeal as a regional and global investment destination. 
Hong Kong residential property market expected to gain traction
Demand for residential property is likely to remain strong given continued limited supply, helping to balance a less positive outlook in the retail and hospitality sectors due to limited visitor numbers. However, while sentiment remains cautious, there were signs in the second quarter of mainland Chinese investors returning to Hong Kong’s property market as China emerged from lockdown. 
China policymakers move to support market
The second quarter saw a raft of policy measures from local and national governments in China that are likely to bolster the country’s property markets in the months ahead. These included the resumption of infrastructure real estate investment trust (REIT) pilot projects, and new high-profile industrial and business developments in major hubs like Shanghai and Guangzhou. 
Japan office markets hold firm 
Office properties in Tokyo and Osaka remained in relatively high demand in the second quarter, even amid lower participation by overseas investors. Logistics has a broadly positive outlook given a scarcity of quality stock near major urban centres and the rapid growth of e-commerce. The retail and hospitality sectors also continued to attract investor interest despite the lack of international tourism. 
Domestic investors active in Korea 
Strong interest from domestic institutional investors, particularly in Seoul’s Gangnam business district, helped push total office transactions in Korea for the quarter to KRW2.5 trillion (US$2.1 billion). The positive trend is expected to continue in the months ahead with several major office transactions in the pipeline and a generally supportive policy backdrop. 
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Asia Pacific property markets demonstrate resilience in Q2

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Despite a backdrop of political unrest and uncertainty driven by COVID-19, the Asia-Pacific flexible office market has remained strong over the past 12 months. According to <a href="https://www.instantoffices.com/blog/instant-offices-news/apac-flexible-office-market-summary-2020/" target="_blank">Instant’s latest report</a>, the industry is in a good position to benefit as companies across the region adjust their office strategies.
The flexible office market remained strong in the Asia-Pacific region over the past 12 months despite a tumultuous backdrop of political unrest and social uncertainty driven by COVID-19. And the industry appears well placed to benefit from the changes to office strategy from companies across the region. 
The resilience of client demand in the face of these issues points to a bright future for the Asia-Pacific Flexible office solution and suggests that the broader approach to the procurement and operation of offices has changed for the long-term.  The data comes from The Instant Group, the global specialist in flexible workspace, with more than 20 years’ experience in the market.  
Supply of flexible workspace – consisting of coworking, serviced offices and spaceasaservice– grew by 19 per cent over the past 12 months in the region, the third successive year of high growth. 
There are now nearly 10,000 centres for flexible workspace in the region, meaning that it is fast catching the more established markets of Europe and the US, despite its relative immaturity.  Seven of the ten fastest growing markets for flexible workspace are now in Asia.  
“The impact of COVID-19, the first Black Swan event to be seen in a generation, has been severely felt across the industry and is not something that we can ignore. The trends that we expect to see during 2020 will no doubt be very different to what the industry has seen in the past, but the long term future still looks very healthy,” explained Sean Lynch, Managing Director of the Instant Group in Asia-Pacific.  
“A trend that started with younger workers looking for short-term, flexible space has become a key tool for businesses of all sizes and is a trend that we predict will only grow in momentum across the Asia-Pacific region in the coming months as those companies that have expiring leases look at ways to futureproof their workplace strategy.”
The flexible office market in Asia-Pacific is growing at a rapid pace. Of the top 20 cities across the region, 60 per cent witnessed double digit growth in supply throughout 2019. Growth in Hong Kong has slowed compared to previous years, with Sydney, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Jakarta overtaking in 2019. 
Several Indian markets, including Hyderabad and Pune are currently among the fastest growing markets in the Asia-Pacific region. More mature markets have witnessed slower growth, mainly due to the lack of vacant office space available.
The impacts of Covid-19 are expected to be wide ranging in the short term with both supply and demand for flexible workspace impacted. The appetite we had seen for the flexible workspace market that we had seen throughout 2019 is thought to still exist but, as indicated in our forecast this does not mean the industry is exempt from short term pain. In the short time since “Lockdown” began to alleviate, we have already seen customer demand for flexible workspace return to pre-COVID-19 levels.
While the region had experienced several bumps in the road throughout 2019 many operators had still be looking to expand their operations throughout 2020. We are unlikely to see the previously expected levels of new investment as providers look to solidify their existing operations and there is no doubt that certain providers will not be able to weather the storm. These two factors mean that for 2020 at least the growth in supply is likely to be cut right back to single digit levels of just 6%. A far cry from the levels seen over the last 5 years.
“We have seen across APAC a number of operators grow and bring great variety to the market. This shows that for those with a strong understanding of flex, who know the local market, and are willing to evolve with it, it will continue to be an exciting industry,” said Sean Lynch.  
“As businesses we face challenges that are outside of our control, but with the fierce competition growing across the region, this can only give more options to our clients and push us all to evolve.”
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Asia-Pacific leads with seven fastest-growing flexible workspace markets

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Global commercial real estate services and investment management firm, Colliers International has announced the appointment of John Kenny as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) | Asia Pacific, effective immediately.
Mr. Kenny (pictured below) has been at the helm of the Australia &amp; New Zealand business since 2006.
He brings plenty of industry and institutional experience having previously held leadership positions in commercial and industrial transactions, corporate real estate and real estate technology within the company.
“I am truly honoured to step into the Asia Pacific Chief Executive Officer role as we continue to build momentum," Mr Kenny said.
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“Colliers is the fastest growing real estate and investment management services company globally and accelerating our success in Asia Pacific, one of the most dynamic and rapidly expanding regions in the global economy, is very exciting,” said Jay Hennick, Global Chairman &amp; CEO.
“I’m confident John will take our business from strength to strength as he consolidates our recent acquisitions in India and China and continues to build industry-leading positions in some of the most important markets in the world. I wish David Hand, who is stepping away from his post for personal health reasons, a speedy recovery and we look forward to welcoming him back to the organization as soon as possible.”
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John Kenny appointed CEO of Colliers International - Asia Pacific

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Asia Pacific commercial real estate investment markets appeared to run out of momentum in the third quarter of 2018 after two years of very strong growth, with deal volumes sliding in the region’s two largest markets, Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data showed. 
China registered the lowest quarterly level of transactions in five years as it reined in lending to investors and developers. Japan experienced its quietest three months since the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago.
Q3 2018 volumes were down 27% to US$27 billion compared to the same quarter last year, but were saved from a steeper decline by all-time high volumes in South Korea. 
The last time the region recorded a quarterly decline was Q2 2016. Over the 12-months ending Q3 2018, purchases of commercial buildings in APAC totalled US$165.0 billion, a 3% increase from the same period ending Q3 2017, RCA‘s Q3 2018Asia Pacific Capital Trends report showed.
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Petra Blazkova, RCA’s Senior Director of Analytics for Asia Pacific, said: “For the past decade the Asia Pacific real estate investment market has been characterised by rising prices and steady yield compression, enabling capital gains for most players."
"With property yields at historic lows and tighter financing conditions looming, or already encroaching in some markets, activity seems to be shifting into a lower gear as investors determine whether the next stage of the investment cycle is on the horizon.”
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Australian Price Growth Momentum Begins to Ebb<img src="blob:https://www.urban.com.au/ada82210-5607-45c4-a26f-ed2c41437e79" alt="page2image3763824" width="230.529000" height="0.719966">
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After a long run of gains, commercial real estate prices in Australia have logged two successive quarters of decelerating growth. Australian investment volumes over the quarter fell 39% compared to Q3 2017 and over 12-months dipped 1% year-over-year in Q3 2018 to US$26.7 billion (A$37.0 billion), RCA data showed. Deal count declined by 15%, based on 12-month rolling totals.
Offices, while remaining the best performer, started to plateau first, and particularly outside Sydney’scentral business district. The narrowing financing gap has also forced investors to take a pause. RCA’sCommercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) showed Australian commercial real estate prices have risen 82% in the past five years.
Sydney recorded growth in both the retail and industrial sectors for the first nine months of the year, however overall volumes declined by 5%, possibly signaling a market turning point. Average quarterly commercial real estate yields in the city, which move inversely to prices, rose for the first time in three years.
 Yields elsewhere have continued to compress over the past quarter, most notably in Melbourne by 25 basis points and where price rises in Q3 averaged the highest for any major city in the world, RCA data showed.
RCA’s Blazkova observed: “The jury is out on the Australian market following this bout of weakness. High prices are persuading owners to sell, which supports the investment market, but overall momentum appears to be slowing.”
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Melbourne bucks downward trend in Asia Pacific commercial property prices in late 2018: Real Capital Analytics

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Knight Frank's Asia-Pacific Prime Office Rental Index for Q3 2018 has showed slower growth, however is still on the rise.
The Q3 Index increased saw an increase of 2.3% quarter-on-quarter and 6.4% year-on-year.
The index showed slower growth, as office occupiers delayed significant real estate decisions amidst rising US-China trade tensions
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Despite slower growth, 18 out of the 20 cities tracked report stable or increased rental growth.
Rental growth in Sydney and Melbourne continues to be among the strongest in the region, recording further increases during the quarter to be up 14% and 7% over the past year respectively  
Knight Frank's head of research and consulting Australia Ben Burston puts the increases down to employment growth and subdued development activity.
“Buoyant employment growth and subdued development activity continues to drive rental uplift in Sydney and Melbourne, which have recorded some of the strongest growth in the region over the past year," Burston said.
"The level of supply scheduled to deliver in 2019 simply will not redress the imbalance, and this will continue to drive rents and motivate tenants to pursue densification strategies or consider emerging fringe markets where expansion can be more easily achieved.”
Asia-Pacific Prime Office Rents
<table style="width: 430px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
City
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Submarket(s)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="117">
3-month % change (Q2 2018 - Q3 2018)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
Forecast next 12 months
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Brisbane
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.7%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Melbourne
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
2.6%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Perth
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.2%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Sydney
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
2.5%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Tokyo*
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Central 5 Wards
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
5.6%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Beijing
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Various
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.7%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Guangzhou
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.3%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Shanghai
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Puxi, Pudong
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.0%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Decrease
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Hong Kong
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Central
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
2.7%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Taipei
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Downtown
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.0%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Seoul
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD, GBD, YBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
-0.7%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Bengaluru
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.4%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Mumbai
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
BKC
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
3.9%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
NCR
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Connaught Place
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.0%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
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<td valign="top" width="91">
Phnom Penh
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
City Centre
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.1%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
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<td valign="top" width="91">
Jakarta
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.0%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Same
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Kuala Lumpur
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
City Centre
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
-0.2%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Decrease
</td>
</tr>
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<td valign="top" width="91">
Singapore
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Raffles Place, Marina Bay
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
1.1%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Bangkok
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
CBD
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.0%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Increase
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="91">
Manila
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
Various
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="117">
0.8%
</td>
<td valign="top" nowrap width="96">
Decrease
</td>
</tr>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/26/asian%20pacific%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Slower office rental growth, but still increasing: Knight Frank's Prime Office Rental Index

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The national online property marketplace, iBuyNew Group Limited has been named among the fastest growing technology companies in the Asia Pacific region.
IBN ranked 67th on the Deloitte Technology Fast 500 Asia Pacific 2016.
The ranking in the 500 fastest growing technology companies in the region is based on percentage revenue growth over three years.
iBuyNew CEO Mark Mendel credited IBN's ongoing research and development efforts with the tremendous rate of revenue growth.
“This acknowledgement from Deloitte Technology provides us with further confidence that our recently launched online reservation system for new property purchases remains at the forefront of technology within the real estate industry.”
Toshifumi Kusunoki, DTTL Leader, Deloitte Technology Fast 500 Asia Pacific program said that making the Deloitte Technology Fast 500 is commendable in today's highly competitive technology industry.
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iBuyNew sits among fastest growing Asia Pacific tech companies

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GUEST OBSERVER
Q3/2016 registered US$2.26 billion worth of investment transactions, representing a 15.0 percent increase over Q3/2015 (US$1.96 billion).
The number of transactions was also significantly lower.
Forty transactions were closed this quarter, while 46 transactions were recorded over the same quarter the previous year. The average transaction price was US$56.4 million, which was signi cantly higher than the US$42.6 million in Q3 a year ago. Japan commanded the largest share of total sales volume in the region this quarter, and all 13 transacted assets were acquired by Japanese investors. We expect growth of transaction volumes for the region for full-year 2016 to be subdued, mainly due to the lack of opportunities in core markets.
Eastern Asia
Japan continued to be one of the most active markets in APAC. Despite a quarter-to-quarter decline in sales volume of 32.1 percent, the total volume of JPY88.2 billion (US$865.5 million) was still the highest in the region. The hotel investment market has seen a series of large transactions in 2016, even as other sectors of Japan’s real estate market have retrenched.
Japan’s explosive growth in inbound tourism and its chronic lack of room supply have created a real interest in the hotel market, and players are leaping to take advantage. The Real Estate Investor Survey by the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) reports that expected cap rates on economy hotels in prime Tokyo locations have compressed from 5.4% to 5.0% since 1H/2015.
Hotel transactions frequently occur outside the nation’s capital, however – only seven transactions occurred in Tokyo in 1H/2016, according to Real Capital Analytics – resulting in a wide range of cap rates. We assume actual transaction cap rates to be much lower than JREI’s surveyed gure of 5.0 percent, because winning bidders tend to expect aggressive increases in ADR.
The largest buyer of the quarter was Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (JHR) with the purchase of three hotels – Hotel Vista Grande Osaka, Hilton Nagoya and Hotel Ascent Fukuoka. The total sale was worth approximately JPY47.1 billion. Hotel Vista Grand Osaka will be rebranded into Holiday Inn Osaka Namba by the end of 2016, according to a JHR press release. Hotel Vista Grande Osaka was the largest transaction in Japan, sold by GK Apollo for JPY27.0 billion (US$267.3 million), or JPY85.9 million (US$851,275) per key. This was followed by Hilton Nagoya which was acquired at JPY15.2 billion (US$150.9 million), or JPY33.1 million (US$328,207) per key.
In June, Japan's Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry announced a plan to relax the oor area ratio of buildings by 1.5 times, or up to an additional 300 percent for hotel constructions. The new standards are expected to substantially increase accommodation capacity following Japan`s continuous increase in foreign visitors and the upcoming 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Although based on this relaxed regulation, each local government is required to decide on their regional floor area ratios under the City Planning Law, and therefore the price of the land for hotel usage in major cities is expected to increase.
In China, sellers’ expectations remained high, and the continued lack of debt nancing for hotel projects has led major Chinese hotel investors to continue to look overseas for either tourism-related investments or refocus into investing in commercial assets or companies in other industries with high growth potential.
Chinese investors’ interest in Australian assets was evident in this quarter, concluding ve transactions there with a total of A$474.7 million (US$352.8 million), representing 15.6% of total volume in the quarter.
Hong Kong’s rst transaction of 2016 was closed this quarter, with the sale of A3 Hotel in Temple Street at HK$108 million (US$13.9 million), or HK$2.4 million (US$309,400) per key.
Southeast Asia
There were only two transactions in Southeast Asia this quarter. The Renaissance Kuala Lumpur Hotel changed hands between IGB and S. Alam Group for MYR765 million (US$187.4 million), or MYR840,659 (US$205,890) per key.
There was no transaction in the same period the previous year. Malaysia has suffered from the sharp fall in international tourist arrivals, particularly those from China, since the airline disasters of two years ago. This quarter, however, the Malaysian Inbound Tourism Association reported that the Chinese source market had shown some signs of recovery. According to Tourism Malaysia, international visitor numbers for 1H/2016 grew 3.7 percent, with remarkable increases from China and Thailand at 32.1 percent each and Laos at 26.8 percent. 
The Singapore hotel investment market remained inactive this quarter, due mainly to the lack of suitably priced assets and the tightened control of room stock by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. In Q2 and Q3, some 2,200 new rooms were added, mostly outside the central area, and 66 percent of the total was in the midscale category. Room nights sold for 1H/2016 rose 6.4 percent year-on-year, according to the Singapore Tourism Board. As of July 2016, the city state registered an increase of 11.5 percent year- to-date (YTD) for inbound international visitors. The Chinese source market jumped remarkably by 49.2 percent, followed by Thailand at 14.9 percent. This upward trend, however, is likely to be impacted to a certain extent by the Zika outbreak in August which has prompted a few countries to issue advisories warning travellers of the dangers of the mosquito-transmitted disease.
Australia and New Zealand
There were 17 transactions in Australia, totalling approximately A$943.2 million (US$716.4 million) this quarter, compared to 16 in the same period last year. In terms of volume, however, there was a remarkable increase from A$381.2 million (US$282.3 million) recorded in Q3/2015 compared to this quarter.
One recent notable sale was that of Novotel Melbourne on Collins from LaSalle Investment to Singapore- listed Frasers Hospitality Trust for A$237 million (US$ 178.7 million), or A$623,684 (US$470,290) per key. The purchase was part of the Trust’s plan to grow its hotel portfolio. Melbourne’s hospitality sector has been given the boost to grow, driven by the completion of Melbourne Airport’s Terminal 4, the expansion of the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, and development of several projects such as the Docklands and Fishermans’ Bend. Tourism Australia expects total visitor nights in the state of Victoria to grow at an average of between 4.0% and 4.6 percent for the next three years.
So far this year, the Australia market has been resilient and attractive for overseas investors due to its currency uctuations which has led to an increase in inbound travellers and, consequently, hotel performance.
New Zealand has captured a fair amount of interest from investors so far this year. Investment volume for the rst three quarters of this year totalled NZ$236.4 million from 11 transactions. New Zealand Trade and Enterprise released a report this year pointing out the shortage of hotel rooms in the country and highlighted investment opportunities to cope with this shortfall, especially in key cities such as Auckland, Queenstown, Rotorua and Christchurch. It also reported that in 2015, Auckland and Queenstown had consistently high occupancy rates of above 80 percent throughout the year, while Rotorua and Christchurch had seasonal peaks of also above 80%. Based on historical preferences, upscale and luxury rooms are expected to have a strong demand.
In recent years, New Zealand has seen remarkable growth in international visitor arrivals, rising 9.6 percent for full-year 2015; growth for the eight years prior to this did not rise above 6.0 percent. For 2016 YTD July, international visitor arrivals grew an impressive 11.2 percent. 
 
Simon Smith is senior director, Research and Consultancy, Hong Kong Savills and can be contacted <a href="https://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Australian hotel market resilient, attractive for overseas investors: Savills

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The commercial real estate market stabilized in Q3’16, declining by a marginal 1.1 percent year-over-year, according to REAL Capital Analytics latest report.
After a slow H1’16, $30.4b of income-producing investments were recorded. Development site sales, a key aspect of the Asia Pacific real estate universe, reached $76.3b in Q3’16.
Investment activity in the quarter was largely driven by a number of portfolio transactions in China and Japan, potentially masking a lack of liquidity in Asia Pacific.
Primary concerns such as interest rates hikes, emerging economy bond markets, and political risks are still challenging investment decisions.
Portfolio deals collectively counted for 43 percent of overall volumes in the region. As a result, the market saw fewer active buyers and deals completed.
China outperformed the rest of the region, recording $10.0b in direct real estate transactions in Q3’16, a 28 percent YOY increase. With now one-fifth of the overall activity in the region, China has overtaken Australia to become the second most active Asia Pacific market.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/quarterly%20transaction%20volume.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/quarterly%20transaction%20volume.jpg" alt="">
Cross-border activity continued to grow and accounted for 33 percent of total volume in Q3’16. This surprise increase is largely caused by a decrease of total purchases by domestic investors, rather than a strong expansion in cross-border capital.
In fact, domestic investment volumes declined by 8 percent YOY to $19.0b. Much of this decline in domestic activity was due to strong Asian outbound capital into global markets such as the U.K., U.S. and continental Europe.
Asia Pacific yields remained largely stable over the quarter. One exception was Australia where property yields compressed by additional 20 bps across all asset classes and geographies, pushing pricing closer to its 2007 peak levels.
Meanwhile in Japan, yield compression slowed down dramatically as commercial property yields reached their peak levels and market activity tapered.
Due to aggressive pricing, foreign buyers are struggling to compete with strong domestic competition and as a consequence became net sellers for the first time this cycle.
The uptick in investment volume in Q3’16 may give the impression of an improving market, following year-over- year declines in the first and second quarters.
However, the economic fundamentals and the ultimate drivers of real estate income have not changed.
Most importantly, when looking at the volumes in greater detail, Q3’16 was driven by a number of portfolio transactions in China and Japan.
In fact, portfolio deals − five of these above $500m – collectively counted for $13.0b, representing 43 percent of overall investment volumes in the region.
As such, the market saw fewer active buyers and deals completed in the quarter. The largest portfolio was CITIC China Overseas $4.7b (RMB31.6t) residential assets sale, which resulted in an increase in apartments sector growth.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/picture%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/picture%202.jpg" alt="">
Looking only at single assets, investments have been focused on the office sector, where the majority of core, secured income, long-term stable assets can be found.
The trend of increasing deal size in the office sector continued. (See Q2’16 report.) The average deal size in the office sector grew by another 2 percent QOQ to $80.0m.
The theme of a mismatch between buyer and seller expectations also recurs this quarter. Property yields in most markets remained largely unchanged, Australia being the exception.
Across all Australian cities and asset classes, 12-month average yields declined by 20 bps in Q3’16, reaching their historic 2007 low. In general, the markets for income-producing real estate seem fully priced.
However, as future new investment opportunities narrow, we may see prices shifting even higher.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/commercial%20transaction%20yields.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/commercial%20transaction%20yields.jpg" alt="">
As a result of high demand for core real estate, and with pricing at historic peaks, investors are searching for new alternatives.
While some look for more creative strategies in the value-add and opportunistic space, others have found warehouse and logistics assets a feasible alternative.
Investment volumes in the industrial sector reached $3.5b in Q3’16, a 32 percent YOY increase.
Historically, Japan and Australia dominated the space – representing 66 percent of overall transaction activity – but new urban locations for development, particularly in China, have started to appear.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/industrial.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/industrial.jpg" alt="">
China outperformed the rest of the region, recording $10.0b in direct real estate transactions in Q3’16, representing 28 percent YOY growth. With this strength, China now represents one-fifth of the overall activity in the region, the largest share historically.
China has overtaken Australia in terms of income-producing property volume in Asia Pacific and is now the second most active market. This is partially driven by a number of mega portfolio deals completed this quarter, but the ongoing appetite for Chinese real estate is robust.
Furthermore, development site activity in China recorded yet another quarter of strong activity.
Domestic Chinese developers continued to expand their land banks, collectively investing $226.9b (RMB1.9t) in the first nine months of 2016.
Regardless of an increasing risk of oversupply in some of the Chinese cities, developers remain con dent and land prices are increasing substantially.
According to RCA analysis, the average development site price in China increased by 54 percent YOY in Q3’16.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/yoy%20change.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/yoy%20change.jpg" alt="">
In Hong Kong, activity continued to be boosted by mainland Chinese investors’ purchases, based on confidence fueled by relatively limited new supply and low vacancy rates.
The total volume in Hong Kong reached $2.8b. Hong Kong and China are the only two markets currently with market share above their long-term average share of total Asia Pacific volume.
In contrast, volumes fell by 27 percent YOY in Japan, pushing its market share sharply below its long-term average. Primarily, this is driven by a lack of suitable stock and the reluctance of active buyers to pay current prices.
It should be noted that holding periods on repeatedly sold assets are increasing – a trend common not only to Japan but widespread around the region as investors are increasing reluctant to sell their holdings in the current environment.
<a href="/images/2016/11/08/market%20shares%20winners%20and%20losers.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/08/market%20shares%20winners%20and%20losers.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile in Australia, the market sentiment remains positive, supported by relatively stable investment volumes.
In Q3’16 $5.1b was transacted, placing Australia at its long-term average. There is further upward pressure on property prices, however, and yields have been compressing further across all asset classes and geographies.
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Commercial real estate market stabilizing after last quarter with small decline in year-over-year

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Asia Pacific millennials share similar long-term lifestyle priorities with other generations, despite often superficial perceptions of this emerging superclass, according to a CBRE report.
The Asia Pacific Millennials: Shaping the Future of Real Estate survey redefines the perceptions of millennials in the Asia Pacific region and how they approach lifestyle priorities through defined live, work and play ambitions.
Based on responses from 5,000 millennials in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India and Japan, the report demonstrates perceptions that millennials prefer informal employment, seek to change hanging jobs regularly and avoid financial responsibility are inaccurate in this region.
Consistent with previous generations, most millennials save money to buy a home and spend prudently. The report also illustrates that this demographic aspires to carve out a stable career but take into account factors such as office design when selecting an employer—with 71 percent of respondents willing to give up other benefits for a better office environment.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%202.jpg" alt="">
“The millennial demographic in Asia Pacific is a game-changer for businesses across the board. Their live, work and play priorities and habits will shape economics, redefine opinions on workplace design and functionality, and drive new attitudes towards consumption and experience for the foreseeable future,” said Steve Swerdlow, Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Asia Pacific.
“Millennials represent the fastest source of spending power regionally and serve as the most influential demographic framing future trends in real estate through their lifestyle behaviour, requirements and priorities of living, working and play,” said Dr Henry Chin, Head of Research, CBRE Asia Pacific.
The report also highlights some key differences between millennials in Australia and Asia.
CBRE’s Head of Research Australia, Stephen McNabb, said a relatively low proportion of Australian millennials (35 percent) live with their parents /in the family home, compared to 70 percent in Asian countries. Australian millennials are also more likely to be married or live with a partner (54 percent), compared to 37 percent in Asia.
Another key difference relates to receiving financial support from a parent or guardian when buying a home – with just 27 percent of Australian millennials receiving this type of support compared to 63 percent in Asia.
Almost two-thirds of the region’s millennials are still living with family due to both cultural practices and financial factors. In most major markets surveyed, the high cost of residential property across the region are providing challenges for Asia Pacific millennials to accumulate the necessary capital to buy their own home.
The survey found that Asia Pacific millennials do aspire to own their own home, with 65% of respondents planning to buy property in the future. However, 63% of respondents said that they are forced into renting as they are unable to buy, and until they have the financial means to live independently, millennials will continue renting.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%204.jpg" alt="">
“Developers and city administrators should take heed of these trends by constructing more affordable housing for rent and sale,” said Dr Chin. “In response to the challenges for millennials to accumulate capital for down payments, there needs to be innovation in structuring mortgages for young first-time homebuyers.”
Mr McNabb added that affordability was a particular issue in Australia.
“The findings shows that 76 percent of Australian millennials want to buy a property but 66 percent believe they won’t ever be able to afford it and 74 percent believe wages are not keeping up with property prices,” Mr McNabb said.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Figure%205.jpg" alt="">
Millennials comprise 25 percent of the total workforce population in Asia Pacific. The figure is even higher in Australia at 35 percent and is set to reach 40 percent by 2030.
While salary and benefits are still the main draw when considering a job, millennials also factor in lifestyle elements such as office design, flexible working, location and commuting time. The survey findings underline the importance of a high quality office environment—more than 70 percent of respondents said they believe that employers should put more thought into their working environment. Millennials view their office and its immediate surroundings as a community where they can relax, socialise and engage in other activities.
While a preference for new amenities is common across all generations it is the strongest for millennials, with wellness/relaxation facilities and green space being the biggest influence on Australian millennials when looking for a job.
Due to the advent of technology, millennials are also increasingly demanding the freedom to work anywhere, anytime—more than 60% of Asia Pacific millennials desire flexibility and mobility at work.
Job loyalty by millennials is also stronger than perceived; two-thirds of Asia Pacific millennials (or 61 percent of Australian millennials) expect to work for the same company, or for a small number of companies, throughout their career. Findings reveal that inspiration, responsibility and career progression are prerequisites to attract and retain the talent of millennials. People-centric workplace strategies that embrace diversity, choice and community—major draw cards for Asia Pacific millennials in career choice —can keep talent happier, more engaged and more productive.
Just 6 percent of Australian millennials want to work for a large number of companies with frequent changes.
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Think that millennials job hop and will avoid home ownership? Think again

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia's hotel market, particularly in the global cities of Sydney and Melbourne, is experiencing an unprecedented alignment of positive fundamental indicators, representing some of the best conditions in the Asia Pacific region.
In the first nine months of 2016 there has been approximately $1.7 billion of hotel transactions, including the $700 million Zhengtang Group investment into the Ribbon development in Sydney.
High occupancy rates, a benign supply outlook and increased air capacity from new markets like China and India characterise a positive outlook.
In addition, the growth in white collar worker numbers within our CBDs is fuelling office growth and therefore strong corporate demand for hotels. 
International passenger movements to and from Australia in 2015 were at record levels reaching 34.9 million, up from 33.1 million in 2014. This trend has been playing out for some time, with consistent annual growth of over 5 percent in passenger movements on international airlines to and from Australia over the past 5 years.
While these market indicators clearly show why the sector has a spring in its step, policy and planning changes at a local level are also driving new opportunities and seeing the industry adapt.
One response we are witnessing is that developers, who have built their business on residential development, are now attracted to the cash flow hotels provide to enable them to trade through cycles.
The recently released Central Sydney Planning Strategy identifies 10 'key moves' to ensure the city can adapt to the projected growth over the next 20 years. The Strategy puts at its core a focus on mixed use developments which cater to the diverse demands of workers, residents and visitors.
Incorporating hotels as part of mixed use developments is an obvious answer. In this way developers can address issues like solar access and leverage greater FSR and height.
Together this means we are likely to see increased levels of hotel development in key markets over the short and medium term. The difference with this particular development cycle versus historic ones is that it is underpinned by strong fundamentals, backed by tourism-generating infrastructure like the International Convention Centre, and capped off by a strong appetite for hotel investment opportunities driven by on-shore and offshore investors.
When this is combined with mixed use offerings - retail, residential and commercial - it helps to ensure the viability and long term sustainability of hotel development projects. 
Gus Moors is head of hotels, Colliers International and can be contacted <a href="https://www.colliers.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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