Property investment

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<p>The developer lobby, better at promoting self-interest than anyone else in society, would have us believe that building more homes will make homes cheaper.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Developers themselves believe that building more houses will make themselves more profitable – particularly if government gives them their wish list of things to make their lives easier - and what happens after that … well, who cares?</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The truth is: the only way to make homes significant cheaper is to build far too many of them. Over-supply is the one thing that can crash a market.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>All of the areas I call the No Go Zones are places undermined by over-supply. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Investors far too often fall victim to such places because supply is the factor most over-looked by property investors.</span></p>
<p>Those who take the time to do some research before tossing a few hundred thousand at an investment property tend to focus on demand, with scant regard for the flipside of the growth equation.</p>
<p>Some organisations that purport to advise investors preach a simplistic follow-the-population-growth strategy.</p>
<p>If high population growth was the core element in a good locational choice, the leading capital growth performers in the past five years would have been the Gold Coast and Wyndham City in the south-west of Melbourne. Gladstone, boosted by the influx of tens of thousands of gas project employees, would have soaring prices.</p>
<p>The opposite is true in those markets, which have all suffered recent periods of marked decline. The too-often forgotten factor is supply.</p>
<p>The Gold Coast had five years of falling property values because of too much supply. Wyndham City, which overtook the Gold Coast as the municipality with the greatest annual additions to its population, recorded no growth in prices for three years, because of an excess of house-and-land packages – ultimately flogged off to distant investors by dodgy marketing companies.</p>
<p>Gladstone, after recording high growth in rentals and prices in 2011 and 2012, saw rising vacancies and a sharp downturn in prices and rents after 2012 because developers went overboard yet again.</p>
<p>Over-supply causes rents to fall and that drags down property values.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The developers building the new projects don’t care as long as they can sell their product to someone and move on to the next project. In over-supplied markets, they tend to target distant investors unfamiliar with local conditions. The Chinese are the victims of choice these days.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There are two “danger situations” at the core of the No Go Zones issue: (1) inner-city apartment markets; and (2) regional centres where a rise in supply (through new development) has coincided with a decline in demand (through downsizing in the resources sector).</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Inner-city units present a significant danger throughout capital city Australia. Boom-bust scenarios are common. As Hegney Property Group chairman Gavin Hegney says: “Apartments are always in over-supply or under-supply because of the lumpy nature of the market. With a housing estate you can release allotments in stages but you can’t do that with an apartment tower.”</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Another problem is the long lead time in creating high-rise unit buildings. Multiple developers will decide simultaneously to build towers in a strong market – two or three years later when they are completed, a lot may have changed.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is a clear and present danger for Australian buyers. Developers don’t care who buys their units as long as someone does, nor are they concerned if their buyers later find themselves unable to tenant their units or are forced to sell at a loss.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But it is a concern for the market and for real estate consumers.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Given that Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Darwin already have – or are heading towards - surpluses of inner-city apartments, and Sydney and the Gold Coast are trending in that direction, a good strategy for property investors is to simply avoid CBD unit markets altogether. There are much better (and cheaper) places to buy.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The coal and iron ore industries are the cause of the other core “danger situation”. When the resources boom was at its strongest, mining expansion created strong property markets in towns and regional centres that felt the positive impacts.</span></p>
<p>This prompted developers to initiate new projects to exploit the demand. Sadly, this coincided in a downturn in the coal sector, with commodity prices declining at a time of rising costs for mining companies. The iron ore industry has had similar problems.</p>
<p>Rising supply coincided with falling demand – a recipe for decline in property markets. The result has been sharply rising vacancy rates, leading to lower rents and ultimately falling prices.</p>
<p>Another factor is the growing use of fly-in-fly-out workers accommodated in workers camps, rather than renting in the local property market. </p>
<p>This has been a big factor in the Surat Basin region of Queensland, where developers built a lot of new dwellings in anticipation of strong rental demand – but more than 90% of resources workers have been </p>
<p>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter</a>.</p>
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Danger at the core of property investment 'No Go Zones': Terry Ryder 

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<p>Property investors across Australia must be cursing themselves because they didn’t find out about the great Clayton Bay property boom of 2015 before it was too late. </p>
<p>They could’ve had 50% capital gains in a single year if they’d been more on the ball.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Others will be giving themselves an upper cut because they overlooked the hotspot potential of Canyonleigh and missed out on $300,000 in overnight equity.</p>
<p>Still others will be demanding answers from their advisers who failed to alert them to the 34% rental yields on offer in Mission Beach. How could they have missed that?</p>
<p>50% price rises in 12 months? Rental yields above 30%? Are such things possible?</p>
<p>In reality, no. They’re the product of computer glitches, careless research companies and media that doesn’t give a damn.</p>
<p>Much of this startling misinformation about booms that never were comes to the Australian public via a relatively new part of the property reporting landscape – the online “magazines” with daily bulletins.</p>
<p>Most of these products, which purport to be information services, are anything but that. The content is created by recycling press releases and contributed blogs. Most of it is propaganda from organisations with a vested interest in their message or the outpourings of publicity-addicted research companies that believe media will publish anything labeled “research”, particularly if it contains a list of the top five/ten of almost anything.</p>
<p>They regularly publish lists from researchers who seek publicity without caring too much about the data quality.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Examples are “Top 20 locations with the highest yields” and “Locations where values have risen 40% in 12 months”.</p>
<p>These lists are the worst kind of nonsense, because most of the entries are computer-generated statistical aberrations – often because a small sales sample means the median price is meaningless.</p>
<p>Media reports a 40% rise in the median price as a 40% rise in values and it’s nothing of the sort. Usually it’s a mathematical glitch and the researchers don’t care enough to clean up their data.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>A recent example declared that the capital growth king of the nation, with a 49% rise in prices over 12 months, was Clayton Bay.</p>
<p>Where? I hear you ask. Clayton Bay is a town of just 200 residents near Hindmarsh Island south of Adelaide. Its property values have <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span></strong> increased 49% - a statistical glitch created by a very small sales sample (one sale per month, on average) has produced a 49% rise in the median house price.</p>
<p>Close behind of this fool’s gold list was Canyonleigh in the NSW southern highlands which, according to one breathless media report, “achieved 49.13% growth on a median house price of $857,500”.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Canyonleigh, like Clayton Bay, is so small it doesn’t have a property market worthy of the name. It has insufficient sales to produce price data that makes any sense.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Every other entry on this list was similar. The information was worse than worthless.</p>
<p>But it gets worse.</p>
<p>Did you know you could get 37% rental returns on residential properties in Mission Beach, Queensland? According to media (quoting figures from the same research firm), you can.</p>
<p>So why aren’t investors stampeding to Mission Beach to snap up every home in sight? Because it’s nonsense – yet another computer-generated statistical anomaly.</p>
<p>This blunder is created by recording the peak season rents achieved by holiday lettings and not telling the computer that properties are vacant for most of the year. If those peak holiday season rates were achieved 52 weeks of the year, the rental return might indeed be 30%-plus. But they’re not.</p>
<p>What’s the true median rental yield for Mission Beach? According to more reliable research sources, it’s 4.9%.</p>
<p>And would you want to buy there? Prices have been falling (a lot) for the past three years and it takes six months to sell the average property.</p>
<p>Lovely place to visit but you wouldn’t want to invest there.</p>
<p>Every location on the national list of best places to buy for the best rental yields was, yet again, a furphy. It makes for entertaining reading – as long as you understand it’s rubbish.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>But, week after week, the online “news services” pump out this nonsense as credible information. So I have to wonder how many people read it, believe it – and act on it.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Property investors must ignore nonsense research data: Terry Ryder

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<div>When it comes to property investment I generally favour the largest capital city housing markets, which in Australia tend to have more diversified economies, the greatest population and employment growth, tighter supply, and less prime location land available for release. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the <em>regional</em> success stories of the past half decade has been a town - or a "city" as you would say in Australia - that I went to visit this weekend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a population of around 162,000 it is the 16th largest city in Australia, and the largest inland city after the nation's capital, Canberra...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>The city I am referring to, of course, is <strong>Toowoomba</strong> in Queensland, to the west of Brisbane.</span></div>
<div><span><br>Queensland is the one state in Australia which has a number of sizeable regional cities, and there are four others that are larger again than Toowoomba: Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, and arguably Cairns (depending upon where you draw the boundary). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>The <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/x" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a> found in a 2014 study that Australia's capital cities have become vital to economic activity, driving most of the economy in every state .</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>For regional centres, Grattan found that it is their proximity to the CBD which largely drives their fortunes and thus their respective rates of economic growth. </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>According to Grattan's research, regional centres stationed less than 150km from the CBD are growing at a considerably faster pace than those located further away.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This in turn suggests that the best placed regional centres over the long term might include cities such as Toowoomba which is positioned approximately 125km from Brisbane. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Other centres which sit close to their respective capitals include Geelong (around 75km from Melbourne), Newcastle &amp; the Hunter (Newcastle is located approximately 160km from Sydney), and Wollongong (85km to the south of Sydney). </span></div>
<div><span><br>The end of the mining construction boom will lead to desperate times for some regional centres, but the unemployment rate in Toowoomba has remained relatively low thanks to its diversified economy, which includes defence, agriculture, food processing, energy resources, retail and construction.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There are some ongoing wages cuts disputes happening in the region, but overally the economy has held up relatively well. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Toowoomba a regional success story: Pete Wargent

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<p>At the moment, the issue of negative gearing is extremely topical due to the Federal opposition proposal to change the availability of negative gearing to new properties only. </p>
<p>In data released last week, the Australian Tax Office (ATO) published their annual taxation statistics for the 2013-14 financial year. </p>
<p>The latest data shows that over the year there was a substantial decline in net rental losses claimed.  In fact, net rental losses haven’t been this low in close to ten years.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-1-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The first chart looks at net rent over time and what is immediately noticeable is that since the beginning of the 2000’s net rental losses have been consistent and grown to be much greater than they ever were before that time. In 1999 the capital gains tax indexation was scrapped and replaced with a 50 percent discount on the capital gain if the asset is held for more than a year.  Since that time we have seen an increase in net rental losses suggesting that this change has made rental income losses more attractive to investors.</p>
<p>Over the 2013-14 financial year the value of net rental losses was $3.719 billion which was down 34.2 percent from the previous year when there were net rental losses of $5.654 billion. Net rental losses peaked at $9.065 billion over the 2007-08 financial year which indicates that rental losses are now 59.0% lower than this peak. </p>
<p>Lower mortgage rates clearly have an impact given that holding costs are lower and this has no doubt contributed to the value of rental losses having fallen.  We would expect a further reduction in rental losses over the 2014-15 financial year considering that standard variable mortgage rates fell by a further 50 basis points over the 2014/15 financial year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-2-2-580x203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-2-2-580x203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The net rental data is split into two components, those that make a profit and those that make a loss. Focusing on those making a profit, there were 776,672 individuals that recorded a net rental profit in 2013-14, with the number increasing by 6.1 percent over the year to its highest number on record.  These individuals made a total profit from their net rent of $7.248 billion which was an historic high and up 5.3 percent over the year. As a result, the average net profit by these individuals was $9,332 which was -1.0 percent lower over the year.</p>
<p>The reason for the decline in the average net profit is most likely due to the fact that some of those that have shifted from making a loss to making a profit are making far smaller profits than those that were already established as making a profit.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-3-3-580x203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-3-3-580x203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Turning to those individuals claiming a net rental loss, there were 1,257,301 of them in 2013-14 and they claimed a total of $10.967 billion worth of rental losses over the year. The number of individuals claiming a rental loss was -3.7 percent lower over the year which was the fewest claiming a loss since 2009-10. In value terms, losses were -12.5 percent lower over the year and at their lowest total value since 2009-10 as well. The average loss claimed was $8,722 which was the lowest it has been since 2005-06.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-4-3-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-4-3-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The taxation statistics also split out the proportion of individuals that were claiming a loss compared to those whose properties were neutral or returning a profit in each state and territory.  Individuals with an investment property in Queensland were the least likely to be neutral or positively geared (30.7 percent) while investors in New South Wales were the most likely to be neutral or positively geared (47.5 percent).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-5-1-580x137.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/22/Chart-5-1-580x137.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above table shows net rental statistics across income ranges which match to the national income tax bands.  Firstly the non-taxable individuals’ data shows that 3,251,992 individuals are non-taxable compared to 9,712,276 that are.  Of those non-taxable individuals, 11.3% have claimed net rent compared to a higher 17.1% of taxable individuals and non-taxable individuals average net rental loss is much lower than those taxable individuals.</p>
<p>Focussing only on taxable individuals, the data shows that those on the lowest income band, more than half of them claim net rent and it is the only income band shown where on average they are seeing a rental profit.  This is probably reflective of retirees or those close to retirement positively gearing investment properties to provide them with an income source. </p>
<p>In terms of number of individuals, far more individuals on lower incomes claim net rent however, this is by virtue of far more individuals overall are on lower incomes.  If you look at the percentage of individuals claiming net rent across the income ranges you can see that the proportion is much higher for the higher incomes (except for less than $18,200). </p>
<p>As the income range gets higher you can also see that the average net rental losses increase significantly.  This indicates that the benefit from negative gearing tends to be greater for those that have higher incomes, conversely, the lower income earners are more likely to have their investment properties either positively or neutrally geared.</p>
<p>The taxation statistics show that the lower mortgage rates are reducing the value of losses claimed on rental properties.  With mortgage rates currently lower than they were in June 2014, it is reasonable to expect that the value of rental losses will continue to decline. </p>
<p>Interestingly, since June 2014 we have also seen the level of investor participation in the market has hit record high levels and has since sunk back to decade average levels.  Given this, we would expect that over the coming year the number of property investors to increase quite substantially at the same time as the value of losses to fall.</p>
<p>It is important to also note that there is a significant shortcoming to all of this data.  Because it is all based on net figures, the data is assessed once the deductions have been made.  Particularly in the case of the income brackets, we don’t have a clear indication of how many people have shifted into a lower taxation bracket due to the deductions they have been able to make.</p>
<p>Although there has been a lot of debate about the tax burden negative gearing creates and changes to negative gearing policies, this data shows that the actual value of these losses has fallen substantially and is likely to remain much lower as long as interest rates remain at low levels.  While any policy changes may be seen as making access to the housing market more equitable, the financial benefit to the Government from such changes is likely to be limited.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Net rental property losses at near ten year lows: Cameron Kusher 

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<p>Yes, I know everyone hates elections but the more I look at this election the more I like it simply because real estate is front and centre.</p>
<p>History will judge whether the government and opposition erred by allowing negative gearing into the debate, although what they have done is to finally open that can of worms which previously had been removed from all discussions.</p>
<p>When you take the time to contemplate the direction that property prices are headed (thanks mainly to all these new developments) there are plenty of dark clouds building. For mine; the smartest solution is to simply limit the number of investment properties to a single tax file number. Opinions vary that negative gearing is driving the values of property although investors account for just one third (approximately) of purchases, so that in itself can’t be the major contributor.</p>
<p>The problem why Australia’s property prices are so high sees the blame at failed political policies where prices have increased two to three times than that when the Baby Boomers were buying property – which by the way were single income families. Governments have failed miserably when it comes to infrastructure where we only ever hear of Very Fast Trains in an election year – come July 2, we in all probability won’t hear it mentioned for another three years.</p>
<p>Opinions when it comes to real estate are always interesting where today we see many property markets starting to ease and nobody comes out and states that this is actually a good thing. Many of Australia’s property markets are actually self-medicating and correcting which is great news given the damage a crash can cause. Naturally we should not also forget that property markets historically slow when an election is announced although many parts of Australia had already started to re-calibrate their prices downwards – we have passed the peak.</p>
<p>This week we saw that for the first time in seven years Australia was now recording deflation – which immediately called for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the cash rate when they meet next week. Even if it were to cut the cash rate say – 0.25 you can rest assured that the banks won’t be passing this on.</p>
<p>I’ve been on the public record as being opposed to federal government policy in December 2008 when off – the – plan – purchases by foreigners were raised from 50 to 100 per cent – the governments have not addressed nor even discussed this. With interest I have noted that this month the ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and this week Westpac are no longer lending money to foreign buyers wanting to buy residential property in Australia.</p>
<p>The major lenders have already implemented black – spot areas where they will no longer finance new apartment developments. Interestingly nobody has even bothered to raise this with any politicians given this is a significant stance by the major lenders that relates directly to government policy. Now we can expect this to remain the case for quite a few years to come with Sydney and Melbourne embarking on massive new development construction – the major lenders have massive exposure here.</p>
<p>Now should the ALP be elected what does this do to their new policy regarding negative gearing? I can tell you what it will do to off – the – plan acquisitions (new property) – it will shut it down almost immediately. Investors are not permitted to buy existing properties, only new – despite 93 per cent of investors preferring to buy existing.</p>
<p>One would think that there should be much more debate about the repercussions to the economy with the major lenders now not lending to foreign buyers. Then of course one can’t rule out a significant price correction given these new developments are massively over valued due mainly to foreign buyers driving these prices. Investors aren’t going to be buying into these new developments for negative gearing purposes when they know full well that these properties are facing a significant value correction.</p>
<p>One only has to look at the body language of the major banks to see quite clearly they have already commenced direct action to minimise their exposure to this newly created property market.</p>
<p>The problem as I see it is that politicians are making some huge mistakes in judgement when it comes to our property markets but sadly nobody is asking them the right questions. A classic example of this the banks deciding to restrict all loans to foreign buyers which is in direct contradiction to the federal governments policy – which we all know is dumb. Even funnier is that the government did not bat an eyelid when the major lenders announced this policy review.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 43</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 45</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 52</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 50</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 55</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 1</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 9</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 26</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 11</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 11</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 30</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 27</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 23</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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Why I am liking this election: Robert Simeon

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<p><em>Hi Margaret, just wondering if things have changed in the Lockyer Valley and whether it is a growth area and worth looking at from a long term investment perspective?</em></p>
<p>Answer: </p>
<p>When you make that decision to invest in property, there is much more to consider than whether an expert is predicting whether an area will make a good investment, or not.</p>
<p>You see, working out whether an area has the potential to be a good investment is a little like asking how long is a piece of string – that also depends upon the piece of string, and who cut it in the first place. </p>
<p>You must start by establishing a few things about yourself – the time till you will need to realise this investment, the personal cash flows you can afford to support along the way, and how much is your borrowing capacity.  You also need to know whether your immediate reliance will be on growth, giving you equity quickly to be able to buy more property, or on cash flow – providing enough rental return to enable you to stay in the market and make your loan repayments and meet expenses.</p>
<p>Some investors have plenty of equity in their own home which allows them to buy more than one property, and so they can afford to wait for growth and buy in areas which may be a little more speculative or long term.  Such areas, as long as they have the correct growth drivers, will grow in the long term and probably get pretty good rent returns in the short term. </p>
<p>Other investors have no equity or little in the way of deposits, and so each and every purchase must grow immediately, or they won’t be able to add to their portfolio.  Always remember that to make money from property you need to buy more than one, and so it is important to really understand what you can afford both in terms of supporting the property financially in the short term and seeing it grow in the longer term.</p>
<p>Once you know this you can establish what you can afford, whether you need a higher or a lower rental yield and if you can wait until the longer term for that important growth to occur.  Make no mistake, cash flow is important but if the property never grows, it’s most likely not worth the time and effort to buy it.</p>
<p>In terms of the Lockyer Valley, it’s a growing area, but it’s on a very slow burn and, in my opinion, will be so for some time.  Considered the ‘salad bowl’ of Southern Queensland, there’s still quite a way to go until the population mass reaches the critical point where super infrastructure begins to be built, population explodes and the micro economy burgeons.  I have no doubt that, over the longer term this is an area which can deliver some reasonable results, but that term is going to be quite lengthy.</p>
<p>It’s now up to you to determine whether you can speculate long enough and wait for this growth, or whether an area with more assured growth, sooner (albeit one which may have relatively lower yields) is more up your alley.</p>
<p> <span>Have a property question? </span><span><em> </em><a href="mailto:%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20/n%20&lt;/script&gt;&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;This%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;" target="_blank"><span><em>Ask Margaret!</em></span></a></span></p>
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mlomas-KC9MUPZ6Ca

Property market in Laidley, Gatton and Lockyer Valley: Ask Margaret 

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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Statistics fatigue</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been suffering from quite heavily from a case of DSF recently - Demographic Statistics Fatigue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After putting the data series on hold for months, the statistics bureau has been releasing monthly data in rapid-fire succession in recent weeks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A bit like London buses, you wait seemingly ages for one to come along, and then...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, we're nearly up to speed now with the May 2015 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1May%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> figures having been released.</div>
<div>
<br>Rather than re-cap on old ground too much, I'll just make four short observations here, starting with...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Migration slowing</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>Firstly, net overseas migration on a rolling annual basis has continued to slow through 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the economy moving through something of a sticky patch, population growth in Australia slowed from a massive 396,200 in calendar year 2013 to a somewhat more sedate 330,200 in 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures suggest that net overseas migration into Australia will be slower again in 2015.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>While property observers in particular seem to love to see rampant headcount growth at any cost, the reduced population growth rate of 1.4 per cent that we have seen through 2014 has had one major benefit in particular.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And that benefit is that over past year the economy has been stacking on new jobs faster - much faster - than the rate of population growth - with an employment growth rate of 1.9 per cent, or just shy of 225,000 new jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, since October alone the economy has added more than 205,000 new jobs, which in turn has seen the rate of total employment growth over recent months romping along at nearly <strong><em>twice </em></strong>the rate of the growth in population.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps unsurprisingly, therefore, the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.3% at the beginning of the year to 6.0 per cent.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The latest Reserve Bank Board Meeting Minutes suggested that we may even see the unemployment rate falling further from this point, thereby contradicting earlier forecasts which had expected unemployment to run up to a peak of 6.5% in this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And long may this particular dynamic continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can read more about employment growth and where it is (and isn't) taking place in Australia here. </div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Rebalancing underway</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian dollar has now declined from a mining-boom-inspired peak of around 110 US cents to below 74 cents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that the Aussie dollar will need to fall further too, in order to help the rebalancing of the economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This depreciation of the currency will have a major impact on demographic trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In short, fewer and fewer Aussies will be inclined to travel and holiday overseas, while more and more folk from foreign fields will see Australia as an attractive destination for a visit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, this enormous benefit to the tourism services industry is already well underway.</div>
<div>
<br>While it may sound like jargon, the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals has declined to its lowest level in years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In plain English, more tourists are now coming to Oz, and fewer Aussies are taking overseas trips.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s640/a6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Looked at another way, the number of short term arrivals into Australia has blazed well past 7 million for the first time on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And while the tide has only turned slowly to date, fewer Aussies are now electing to take overseas trips. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The two lines representing these trends on the chart will meet again, possibly sooner than we think, and in time Australia will once again see a net inflow of short term demographic movements.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s640/a2.jpg" width="640" height="284"></a></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Chinese...and Kiwi visitors!</span></strong></p>
<div>The most notable of all demographic trends has been the incredible explosion in Chinese visitors to Australia, an obvious precursor to what lies ahead in terms of permanent migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the last year there have been 1.25 million visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and the latest data suggests that these extraordinary figures are set to accelerate plenty higher still in due course.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s640/a3.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Chinese migrants are settling in Australia too, with 18,550 settlers in the year to May - essentially as high a figure as we have seen to date - while there were also a record 19,930 settlers hailing from India over the same 12 month period.</div>
<div>
<br>Watch this space, as these numbers are growing apace.</div>
<p><span>Indeed, the number of settlers hailing from Asia is now overwhelming compared to the numbers from all other continents - outnumbering European migrants by a ratio of five to one, for example.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Much has been made of the rapidly diminishing numbers of settlers from Oceania (essentially New Zealand), with permanent migrants effectively having halved since 2012. </span></p>
<div>There are also ever fewer Britons emigrating to Australia at present as the UK economy has become an "incredible job-creating machine" over the past few years.<br><br>
</div>
<div>For all that, it's worth noting that there were well over 1.25 million short-term arrivals from New Zealand over the past year - a record high - so it's hardly all one way traffic, bro.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s640/a5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a><br><br></p>
<div>At the same time there were also a record 567,100 American visitors enjoying the turnaround in exchange rate in Australia over the past year...the delayed Oprah effect.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record foreign students</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Recent data from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) liaison projects a huge ramp up in the number of foreign students in Australia over the years ahead, one of Australia's fast-growing "export" industries.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>In fact, this is already happening, with Chinese students playing a major role here too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The first quarter of 2015 witnessed record enrolments of foreign students in Australia.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s640/a4.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The RBA data also confirmed that most foreign students are overwhelmingly bound for Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The main themes here are that we can expect population growth in 2015 again to be slower than it has been in recent years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This slowdon has clearly had a positive effect on the unemployment rate to date, and it is hoped that if the economy continues to add jobs at the pace it has been since October the unemployment rate may fall into a range with a "5 handle".</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The other obvious theme here which stands out is the sheer dominance of migration from Asia, a story which is only set to grow in Australia over the decades ahead.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The role of Chinese investment in Australia in particular is set to be very material over the next five years.</div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Foreign student numbers and other demographic property investor trends: Pete Wargent

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<p>Did Australia pass a prohibition law on property investment but forget to tell anyone?</p>
<p>Somewhere in recent history, buying property has mutated from a normal part of Australian life into something with the odour of dealing in illicit drugs on murky street corners.</p>
<p>Mums and dads trying to provide for their kids’ education are accused of smashing the dreams of first-home buyers.</p>
<p>Those seeking to fund their retirement without burdening the state are labeled speculators.</p>
<p>People on average incomes who own one investment property – i.e. the majority of property investors - are portrayed as greedy bastards ripping off the tax system.</p>
<p>Foreign buyers of Australian property treated as criminals by the buffoon otherwise known as the Federal Treasurer.</p>
<p>Suddenly, property investment is everyone’s top-of-mind political football. Property investors have become the whipping boy of choice for everyone from the Prime Minister to the Reserve Bank to lefty lunatic fringe dwellers. It’s become hip to be anti-property.</p>
<p>Investors are there to be exploited, pilloried and abused. Regulators are having a field day, banks are boosting their profits and local councils are propping up their balance sheets by hammering property investors.</p>
<p>So Australia needs to make a fundamental decision: is property investment okay or is it not?</p>
<p>Last time I checked, it was legal. Last time I analysed it, it was an activity that benefited the nation. Every way I look at it, it’s something that should be nurtured, especially if Australia wants its citizens to be self-funded in retirement.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the politicians who run the country or parts of it don’t see investors as valued citizens undertaking worthy activities. They treat them as bunnies ripe for exploitation, both financially and politically. </p>
<p>Over $70 billion gets ripped out of the real estate industry in taxes every year. The cost to the public purse of negative gearing is petty cash by comparison.</p>
<p>Politicians, being the inherently-dishonest bottom feeders that they are, are happy to blame affordability issues on investors. It’s a convenient distraction from the fundamental truth that politicians’ taxes on real estate activity add 40% to the cost of every new home built in Australia.</p>
<p>Local councils subsidise the rates charged to their constituents by slamming investor owners with higher charges. State Governments slug them with higher rates of stamp duty and a medieval impost called land tax.</p>
<p>Banks are exploiting the APRA brain explosion by slugging investor borrowers with higher interest rates at a time when the trend is overwhelmingly to lower interest rates. </p>
<p>Everywhere investors turn, lenders and bureaucrats and political activists and elected representatives are doing their damnedest to damage them.</p>
<p>So what’s the answer to that fundamental question, Australia? Is real estate investment okay or not?</p>
<p>You need to decide. And then get out of the way.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>T<em>ERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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It’s become hip to be anti-property: Terry Ryder

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<p>The latest housing finance and housing credit data confirm that the level of activity from investors in the housing market is slowing.</p>
<p>Australian mortgage lenders have been rationing credit to the investor segment and lifting mortgage rates and these changes are starting to bite with investor demand now slowing. It remains to be seen if this slowdown lasts or, if once these limits are eased the investor segment of the market comes back to residential property.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/chart-1-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/20/chart-1-4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since August 2015, Australian mortgage lenders have been charging interest rate premiums for investors.  While standard variable mortgage rates for owner occupiers were recorded at 5.45% in August 2015, the same mortgage type for investors had a mortgage rate of 5.75% or a 30 basis point premium.  Since August 2015, the cash rate has fallen by 50 basis points however, mortgage rates have not shown the same decline. </p>
<p>At the end of May 2017, standard variable mortgage rates were recorded at 5.3% for owner occupiers and 5.8% for investors.  Despite two 25 basis point interest rate cuts since August 2015, owner occupier mortgages rates are only 15 basis points lower while investor mortgage rates are 5 basis points higher and have a premium of 50 basis points compared to a typical owner occupier mortgage.</p>
<p>The mortgage rate premium for investors appears to finally be biting into the market with weakness in both total investor credit and investor housing finance commitments.  The April 2017 lending aggregates data from the Reserve Bank (RBA) showed that investor credit rose by 0.55% over the month, its lowest monthly increase since August 2016. </p>
<p>At the same time, April 2017 housing finance data shows there was $12.6 billion in investor housing finance commitments over the month, the lowest value since September 2016.  Since August and September of last year, standard variable mortgage rates for investors have risen by 30 basis points compared to a 5 basis point increase for owner occupiers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/chart-2-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/20/chart-2-4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There are individual states and territories in which a slowdown in mortgage demand by investors will have more of an impact, namely New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/chart-3-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/20/chart-3-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Tasmania is the only state or territory where the value of lending to housing investors is currently rising however, in terms of the value of lending to investors, New South Wales and Victoria account for a substantial majority of overall lending. </p>
<p>This is partly a function of higher housing costs in these two states, nevertheless, New South Wales accounted for 49.3% of all investor lending nationally in April 2017 with Victoria accounting for 27.4%. A pull-back in lending to investors is inherently likely to have more of an impact on the New South Wales (Sydney) and Victorian (Melbourne) housing markets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/20/chart-4-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/20/chart-4-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The potential impact on the New South Wales and Victorian housing markets of an investor slowdown is further highlighted in the final charts.  Excluding refinances (which are also trending lower) investors accounted for 55.3% of mortgage demand in New South Wales in April 2017 and 46.8% in Victoria.  In all other states and territories investors accounted for less than 40% of mortgage demand in April 2017, with the proportion trending lower over recent months in most regions.</p>
<p>It is anticipated that investor demand will continue to slow over the coming months.  Lenders are continuing to re-price mortgage rates for investors and we are yet to see the full impact of the policy changes designed to slow the level of interest-only lending.  With investor demand likely to continue to fade, it is expected that this will also contribute to a further slowing of the rate of value growth in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets where investor demand has been significantly greater than it has been elsewhere.</p>
<p>A reduction in the pace of capital gains will add further disincentive to investors.  Considering that rental yields in Sydney and Melbourne are close to record lows, we can assume most investors are focused on the prospects for capital growth and relying on a negative gearing strategy to offset the cash flow losses.  If investors anticipate the prospects for capital gains have dissipated we may see investment demand deflect to those markets where the growth cycle is less mature than Sydney and Melbourne’s and where rental yields haven’t been depleted as substantially.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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The housing investment slowdown is upon us (for at least a while)

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<p><span>We have been advising our clients for some time that the banks have become harder to deal with, than this time last year. Since those comments we have introduced internal measures to help our buying clients AND the banks have put investor rates up. Ok, the banks are being prudent, aren’t they?</span></p>
<p><span>Yes, but hey, there is a bigger picture here that the banks and the government are not seeing or maybe are choosing to ignore.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Are banks being fair to locals?</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Question:  <strong>Are our local banks involved in some form of inadvertent, bizarre reverse prejudice by pulling interest rate and other restrictive lending levers for locals.</strong></span></p>
<p><span>As any local buyer will acknowledge, it is already very difficult to compete against the huge Asian inflow of money. Asian buyers have more financial options eg currency swapping, than the local Australian buyers do.</span></p>
<p><span>Are we seeing a repeat of the 1960s where the banks wanted to encourage new building, so they made it easy for locals to borrow to build new in Doncaster, while making it more difficult for locals to borrow and buy second hand in Albert Park? The Greek and Italian migrants who at the time had more money raising abilities than the locals, took full advantage of this when walking off the boat and bought en masse in Albert Park, Port Melbourne and Middle Park with minimal competition.</span></p>
<p><span>The Asian buying influx is a lot, lot bigger now than the Greek and Italian influx of those times.</span></p>
<p><span>Since the FIRB changes of 2009 which opened and never shut the floodgates to overseas investment, large amounts of land and huge numbers of established homes in Inner Melbourne have been and are continuing to be bought by overseas investors. This seems to be what the Australian governments of both political persuasions want – ok, that is the government’s call – that’s not the point of this article – that’s for another time.</span></p>
<p><span>Our policy at James is clear – we act for local and overseas clients without internal policy bias.</span></p>
<p><span>Our point is that the locals (your children and my children) <strong>need to be on as level a playing field as possible when it comes to being able to compete against buyers from Asia.</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Otherwise the banks/governments maybe subjecting some of our clients, locals, your/my children etc to a form of bias which we find totally unacceptable and outside our values of Australian fair play.</span></p>
<p><span>The banks, for no doubt very good reasons in their mind, are making it harder for locals to buy – but they may not slow the surge, as they intend. All they may do, is make it a lot easier for overseas buyers to buy near schools, buy in good streets, buy the established homes; as fewer local buyers have the ability to compete against the more sophisticated money from China and other Asian countries.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>We think this is seriously unfair on local Australians if it plays out as it looks like it may.</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Local banks need to be helping local buyers, not making it harder – guys, it’s already bloody hard enough for local buyers.</span></p>
<p><span>When are people of influence going to stand up for our children and for local buyers – who want to live locally.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>If the government and banks want the market to ease, go to the source of the creation – huge and unabated overseas demand.</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Banking leaders please look at what you may be inadvertently doing if you carry on your latest policy directions.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>This current market is not being driven by local interest rates</strong> – this current market is being driven by overseas demand and if you continue to weaken the local competition by restricting their ability to borrow (which no doubt is based on good intentions); all you may be doing is making it even easier for overseas buyers to buy, while making it harder for some of our clients, locals and our/your children to buy.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Is that fair? No, it is not fair.</strong></span></p>
<p><span><em>Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on</em><strong><em> <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a></em><span>.</span></strong></span></p>
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