Housing Markets

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<div>The ONS released its latest data in the UK which showed that inflation or CPI has dug in obdurately at zero year-on-year (a 0.4 reading drops off next month too, so we could be heading negative), suggesting that interest rate hikes are as far as way as they ever were, even after seven years at the effective zero lower bound.</div>
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<div>The latest house prices indices from the ONS for July 2015 showed prices rising over the past year in England (+5.6%) with the mix-adjusted average house price in England rising to an all-<span>time high of <span>£299,000.</span></span>
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<div><span><span><br>House prices in England have busted through record highs and are now +19.1% from their pre-downturn peak of January 2008 in seasonally adjusted terms.</span></span></div>
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<div><span>By comparison growth over the past year has been flat in Wales (+0.3%) and negative in Scotland (-1.3%), while house prices in Northern Ireland remain a whopping -42.3% below their crazy August 2007 peak levels in seasonally adjusted terms. Woosah.</span></div>
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<span>London house prices continued to power on to a new high of </span><span>£525,000 (not seasonally adjusted), while annual price gains have been driven largely by the areas immediately surrounding London, namely the East (+8.3%) and the South East (+6.7%) of England. </span>
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<div>In short, since the January 2008 peak if you've owned property in London (+46.2% in seasonally adjusted terms), or in nearby cities such as Cambridge or Oxford, then you have continued to do exceptionally well. </div>
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<div>House prices in seasonally adjusted terms are also up reasonably strongly in the areas surrounding London such as the South East (+20.0%) and East (+18.8%) since the preceding January 2008 peak.</div>
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<div>Elsewhere prices are now rising again but in real terms are generally well below previous peaks, although in nominal terms 7 of the 9 regions have finally recovered to hit new highs.</div>
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<div><span>At a national level the UK house price index sits at 216.9 which is +16.9% higher than the pre-downturn peak of 185.5 seen in January 2008, with London and the South East accounting for the bulk of the increase. </span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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England house prices power on: Pete Wargent

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<h2>EXPERT OBSERVER</h2>

<p>Capital city housing markets have surged towards years-end with robust buyer and seller activity clearing any doubts of a sustained post coronavirus shutdown recovery. Housing markets have rebounded quickly following the easing of local coronavirus restrictions with the clear prospect of the current generally strong market conditions continuing through 2021.</p>

<p><strong>AUCTION MARKETS</strong></p>

<p>Average weekend home auction clearance rates continued to rise over November In Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane with boom-time results maintained In Adelaide and Canberra The Melbourne auction market clearly reported the sharpest monthly increase In clearance rates and auction listings over the month, reflecting the impact of the easing of local coronavirus restrictions. Auction numbers also Increased significantly in each capital over the month. Clearance rates and auction numbers over November were generally similar to those recorded over the same period In 2019, although Melbourne listings remained significantly lower.</p>

<p><strong>NEWLY REPORTED LISTINGS</strong></p>

<p>Real-time Indicators of housing market activity supported November’s generally strong auction market performances The National Daily New Listings Index peaked at 110.35 over November before the seasonal constraints and distractions of the upcoming summer holiday period produced the unusual end-of-year decline in activity - particularly in auction listings. New listings however remained higher than reported over the same period last year. New listings fell in all capitals over the month reflecting the usual seasonal impact of the approaching end of year market shut down. Decline levels were reasonably consistent amongst the capitals. Melbourne again reported the highest number of new listings over the month - 8.8% higher than the Sydney total.</p>

<p><strong>NEWLY REPORTED SALES</strong></p>

<p>Newly reported home sales continued to rise over November in all capitals except Adelaide, with rebounding Melbourne market again the standout - Increasing sharply by 70% over the month. Although Sydney again reported the highest number of average weekly newly reported sales over the month, Melbourne has closed the gap significantly compared to the previous month and now lower over November by just 16.2%.</p>

<p><strong>HOUSE AND UNIT ASKING PRICES</strong></p>

<p>Sydney reported the highest Increase In average median daily asking prices for houses over November - up sharply by 3.5%. Sydney maintained Its most expensive position with the highest average median asking price over November at $1,154,216 and significantly ahead of the next highest Melbourne at $847,569.</p>

<p><strong>Dr Andrew Wilson </strong><em>is the Chief Economist at Archistar</em></p>
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Capital city housing markets have surged towards years-end with robust buyer and seller activity clearing any doubts of a sustained post coronavirus shutdown recovery.

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Australian housing markets strengthening till years end: Archistar's Dr Andrew Wilson

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<p><span>The Melbourne council region saw nearly 40 per cent of resales make a loss in the June quarter, according to the recent CoreLogic pain and gain report.</span></p>
<p><span>Melbourne saw a median loss of $50,000 for the gross loss-making sales which made up 37.5 per cent of the sales in the region.</span></p>
<p><span>This is up from around 34 per cent in the March quarter, the report noted.</span></p>
<p><span>Investor owned units made up around 80 per cent of loss-making sales, due to the general of investor demand in the uncertain economic environment.</span></p>
<p><span>With diminished rental income, due to declines in rental income, investors may also find it more difficult to service a mortgage, the report noted.</span></p>
<p><span>During the quarter, 15.4 per cent all unit resales made a loss.</span></p>
<p><span>This is a strong divergence from houses, which only saw 2.9 per cent of house resales making a loss.</span></p>
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Nearly 40 per cent of Melbourne resales make a loss in June quarter: CoreLogic Pain and Gain

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<p>Not every Australian housing market has performed the same way since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>The latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results revealed that since March, Melbourne property values fell 3.5%. Meanwhile, the ACT dwelling market reached a record high.</p>
<p>From June to July, the rate of decline eased across Perth from -1.1% to -0.6%, but deepened across Melbourne and Sydney.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/8/6/Cumulative%20CL.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The chart above shows the varied trajectories of capital city markets from the end of March.</p>
<p>The end of March is a good place for dating the ‘start’ of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, because Australia recorded its 100th case of COVID-19 on the 14th of the month, and the 25th of March saw the national rollout of stage 2 restrictions, which created much of the economic shock as business activity slowed.</p>
<p>Melbourne has so far seen the largest cumulative declines in property values since March (3.5%). This was led by a 5.2% decline across the Inner East region.</p>
<p>As has been explored in recent weeks, the steeper decline across the Melbourne market is two-fold. Cyclically, Melbourne property is subject to more volatile growth rates, and is also presenting strong declines off the back of very high growth rates through the previous upswing.</p>
<p>Structurally, there has been an enormous demand shock to the Melbourne property market with the closure of international borders, where Melbourne previously had the highest level of net overseas migration of the capital city markets. This is similar to the Sydney housing market, which received the second highest volume of net interstate migrants over 2018-19.</p>
<p>Victoria has also seen the largest decline in payroll jobs of the states and territories, according to ABS data. Conversely, the ACT has seen property value increases of 1.3% since March. While the performance of the ACT market may seem like an anomaly, the ACT dwelling market is one of the few markets performing as may be expected amid the record low cash rate setting.</p>
<p>RBA research has noted that reductions in the cash rate typically increase property values over time, because debt becomes cheaper and purchasing capacity increases.</p>
<p>However, it is still striking that 70% of food and accommodation employers reported a reduction in staff hours. Food and accommodation employs about 8% of Australians, or about 1.2 million people. This is where a more granular view of employment data can highlight risks to the property market.</p>
<p>The detailed quarterly survey data provides insight into what industry residents work in, at the SA4 level. The February edition suggests that most food and accommodation workers are highly concentrated in Sydney’s Inner West, followed by the Sunshine Coast and the Coffs Harbour-Grafton region.</p>
<p>This market has likely been buoyed by the relative stability in employment across sectors where workers are on higher incomes, and are more likely to be home owners or prospective buyers. For example, ABS payroll data shows the number of jobs across the financial and insurance industry in the ACT has actually increased 0.7% since the start of the pandemic.</p>
<p>A ‘two tiered’ state of the labour market is highlighted by the fact the ACT accommodation and food services sector has seen the largest rate of decline of the states and territories. This industry is more likely to be comprised of renters, and rental values have fallen half a percent across the ACT since March, with larger falls across the unit sector (-1.0%). Smaller housing markets have seen better capital growth results since March.</p>
<p>Adelaide is a relatively steady market that has traditionally not seen volatile movements in response to negative economic shocks. This may be partly to do with the relatively low level of investment activity across the market. CoreLogic estimates that the portion of dwellings across Adelaide that were owned by investors as of July 2020 was 28.9%, compared with 34.5% nationally. While Adelaide has seen modest growth during the pandemic, this has not traditionally been a market with strong capital growth returns.</p>
<p>Annualised growth across Adelaide dwellings over the past 10 years was 1.3%, compared with 3.0% across the combined capital cities market. It is also worth noting that while cumulative price changes show 4 of the 8 capital city markets have not declined in value since March, almost all markets are showing a slowdown in growth rates. This suggests that, as with past downturns, most housing markets will be subject to a downswing phase.</p>
<p><strong> What to expect going forward</strong></p>
<p>Looking forward, there are a variety of factors that will influence the outlook for home values. Of immediate concern is the steepening curve of the virus in Victoria.</p>
<p>Considering Victoria accounts for around one quarter of the nation’s economy, the stage four lockdown has already dampened both consumer and business sentiment nationally and the interruption to economic activity will deepen and lengthen Australia’s recession.</p>
<p>Cities where labour markets are more impacted are also likely to under-perform, as will those with more significant exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand.</p>
<p>As federal government fiscal support moves from around $18 billion per month to around $3 billion from October, housing market conditions will be tested more broadly; this is when we are likely to see a rise in the number of households facing financial distress and a lift in urgent sales.</p>
<p>The expiry of mortgage repayment holidays is another downside factor for the market. Pre-COVID, mortgage arrears remained around 1% of the mortgage book, but with unemployment expected to reach 10%, along with less fiscal support and an expectation that mortgagors taking a repayment holiday will need to face up to their debts by April next year, it’s reasonable to expect a sharp rise in mortgage arrears which could see a lift in distressed properties hitting the market. The RBA has previously noted for every 1 per cent rise in the unemployment rate, 90 day mortgage arrears generally increase by 80 basis points.</p>
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<p>If unemployment rises to 10%, that implies a 90 day mortgage arrears rate around 5%. Arguably, this may be an overstatement, considering weak labour market conditions are skewed to more casualised workers who tend to be renters rather than home owners.</p>
<p>The outlook for both the economy and housing markets remains extremely uncertain, but risk remains skewed to the downside.</p>
<p><strong>ELIZA OWEN </strong><em>is the</em><em> Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic</em></p>
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Why capital cities performed differently amid COVID-19: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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<p><strong><span lang="EN-US">EXPERT OBSERVATON</span></strong></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">Housing finance approvals came in </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">better than expected for April but are showing clearer signs of a turn lower. The total value of new loans fell 4.8% in the month, a weak result but better than expected given disruptions from COVID-19 – we had been looking for a 10% pull back.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">The detail showed similar sized declines across the value of owner occupier and investor approvals (–5% and –4.2% respectively) and in the number of owner occupier approvals (–4.4%mth). The latter is now down on a year ago but loans in value terms remain higher (reflecting the rebound in prices over the last year).</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">The ABS reported that housing loan approvals largely reflected applications submitted prior to COVID restrictions being introduced in March.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">Results were very uneven by state, perhaps reflecting variations in lags between application and approval. Qld and WA saw much sharper pull backs (–22% and –24% respectively) compared to the milder decline in SA (–4.1%) and NSW (–2.4%), and a 4.5% gain in Vic that looks particularly out of step.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">The lending figures also include non housing loans which are worth a mention. In particular, a steep fall in personal loan approvals (–24.8%) is more clearly directly related to COVID impacts. The detail here shows a slump in vehicle loans in line with the abrupt drop in sales and a very sharp decline in travel-related loans. Note that these loans have much shorter processing times than housing loans.</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">Overall, the housing finance data is yet to fully reflect the Coronavirus disruptions that hit the market through April-May. Many of these may have resulted in borrowers that had secured loans being unable to transact – as auctions and open homes were cancelled, and as properties were withdrawn. As such housing finance approvals may miss some of the extent of the disruption. However, the shock will clearly impact the flow of new applications. This may be taking longer to move through the pipeline, but a sharp drop off still looks likely in the months ahead.</span></p>
<p><em><span lang="EN-US"><strong>Matthew Hassan</strong> is a senior economist with Westpac.</span></em></p>
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A clearer but mild turn for housing finance: Matthew Hassan

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<p>The accompanying material to the Federal Budget highlighted the importance of the country’s property market, an addition welcomed by the industry.</p>
<p>The 2019/20 Budget provides a fiscal stimulus by increasing infrastructure spending and delivering higher disposable incomes to 10 million low to middle income earners, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).</p>
<p>“Whilst there were no major surprises in the Budget, the measures will lift the brake of economic activity," REIA President Adrian Kelly said. </p>
<p>“The Budget papers forecast private investment to fall by 7% in 2020/21 and a further 4% in 2021/22.</p>
<p>“The Papers highlighted the importance of the housing sector to economic wellbeing pointing out that a 10% drop in housing prices reduces real GDP by about 0.5%.</p>
<p>“Given the recent falls in house prices and the possibility of further falls, which will be exacerbated if the Opposition’s housing taxation proposals are implemented, it is timely to see the importance of the housing sector to Australia’s economy illustrated.</p>
<p>“With the Government’s commitment to not altering taxation arrangements for future property investors this means that the increased disposable incomes of low to middle income earners can be spent on goods and services and keep the economy ticking over rather than higher rents and worrying about decreasing equity.”</p>
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Budget notes importance of housing market to economy: REIA

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<p class="article-details">EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p class="article-details">Housing market stabilisation depends on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability.</p>
<p class="article-details">Buyer sentiment provides a rough guide to how this is progressing.</p>
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<p>With the price adjustment in Sydney and Melbourne continuing and investor demand unlikely to return any time soon, an eventual stabilisation depends heavily on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability. A recovery in buyer sentiment suggests improvements are already gaining some traction.</p>
<p>However, the measures of affordability that align best with sentiment also suggest further improvements will be required to generate a lift in demand. While Westpac now expects interest rate cuts to contribute to better affordability, price moves will need to do more of the ‘work’ than in previous adjustments.</p>
<p>There is little doubt that housing affordability and consumer sentiment towards housing are closely linked. Our previous research established a particularly close relationship between the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index and an affordability measure that incorporates both deposit requirements and mortgage repayments.</p>
<p>Latest readings on both measures show buyer sentiment lifting a little in response to some easing in affordability pressures, although the gap to long run averages indicates affordability is still not back to ‘normal’.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the evolution of affordability over previous price corrections and the contributions from the three components: prices, mortgage rates and incomes. In each of these, falling rates and income growth provided assistance in restoring affordability. In contrast, the current adjustment is expected to see much less assistance from rates and is occurring against a backdrop of weak income growth.</p>
<p>This implies that price declines will need to do most of the ‘heavy lifting’ to generate an affordability improvement.</p>
<p>We can get some indicative estimates of how much further prices may need to move by looking at the price change required to return affordability to its 20yr average. The results point to about a 5% decline required nationally with more substantive moves in the 5-10% range for NSW and Vic, and milder moves across other states.</p>
<p><img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Housing-pulse-bite-2019-02-2.jpg" alt="">  </p>
<p><em>MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac</em></p>
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How do we restore housing affordability? Matthew Hassan

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<p>The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets will keep leading the property price decline, after sustained weakness in 2018, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics report estimates that the Sydney housing market declined by 5.2% in 2018, and a further 3.3% drop is forecast for 2019. This follows the 12.8% rise in 2017.</p>
<p>However, apartment values are set to recover modestly after a 2.9% decrease in 2018.</p>
<p>House values in Melbourne are set for a steeper correction; they are forecast to fall by 6% in 2019 on the back of declines in Inner Melbourne areas, compared with a 0.1% fall in 2018.</p>
<p>Melbourne’s apartment market is expected to have slowed in 2018, followed by sharper slowdown in 2019.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The report said house values across Brisbane are forecast to gain a mild 1.2% in 2019, with strength in West Brisbane and Inner Brisbane offsetting declines in South Brisbane.</p>
<p>"The worst is likely over for Brisbane’s apartment market."</p>
<p>"Apartment values are forecast to recover by 2.8% in 2019, followed by sharper growth of 6.5% in 2020," the report added.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a></p>
<p>Although commodity prices are stabilising, house values in Perth will likely decline 2.8% in 2019, followed by a recovery in 2020, thanks to population growth.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run: House values in Adelaide are forecast to rise 2.6% in 2019, after a 1.9% expected gain in 2018.</p>
<p>Hobart’s housing market is likely at the end of its bull run; home values are forecast to decelerate to 2.7% in 2019, followed by a 2% fall in 2020.</p>
<p>Similarly, the Hobart apartment market will likely decelerate from 11.7% growth in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019, the report noted.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/7/Moodys%20Graph%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>The report authors, said "Australia’s housing market has continued its entrenched cooling trend in the final months of 2018."</p>
<p>"The decline has been sharper in home values over apartment values: Home values have fallen more than 4.5% from their peak late last year, while apartment values are down 3.3%," they concluded. </p>
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Melbourne to be hit hardest in 2019 property price falls: Moody's Analytics

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<p>The total peak to trough declines in Sydney and Melbourne could reach 12 and 17 percent by the end of 2019, according to new research from SQM Research.</p>
<p>The most likely 'base case' prediction from SQM is that the two biggest housing markets will decline a further six to nine percent by the end of next year.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The base case forecasts assume no changes in interest rates, a Labor win at the next Federal Election with Negative Gearing repeal and CGT changes coming into effect 1 July 2020.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p>The second scenario, which relies on an out of cycle rate hike by the banks and an official RBA rate cut in late 2019, suggests prices could decline up to 11 percent in both Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>SQM also believes that, should the RBA not intervene in the market, 2020 could also record price declines due in part to the repeal of negative gearing, which is a firmly stated Labor party objective.</p>
<p>This would be the worst case scenario, which could see total peak to trough declines in the range of 20% to 30% for our two largest capital cities.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/SQM%20BB%201.JPG" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/15/SQM%20BB%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>SQM managing director Louis Christopher said if the RBA does not respond and/or the bank lift interest rates again in 2019, it is possible the peak to trough falls in Sydney and Melbourne could be even more than this negative range.</p>
<p>"But we do take the view that the downturn in Sydney and Melbourne will be a significant negative for the overall economy, and so the central bank will eventually respond at some point and cut interest rates," Christopher said.</p>
<p>“The looming changes of Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax are increasingly weighing on investor sentiment. Quite frankly implementing these changes during a housing downtown is very risky and may trip the economy into a recession,” Christopher added.</p>
<p>SQM’s "base case"" forecast is for national dwelling prices to fall between -6% to -3%, which is a continuation of the current falls of 4.5% over the past 12 months.</p>
<p>Other cities will record mixed results with Hobart expected to have a third year of strong price rises of 5% to 9%.</p>
<p>SQM Research also anticipates a recovery in the Brisbane and Perth rental markets in 2019 with Canberra to also record solid rental increases. However Darwin will continue to record steep declines in both rents and prices as the local Northern Territory economy enters recession.</p>
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Sydney to decline 17 percent peak to trough: SQM

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<p>This week, inflation and the housing market have been in focus for Australia. Offshore, data for the US remained robust, but was less so in Europe and Emerging Asia.</p>
<p>Australian inflation has been an enduring disappointment for the market, with actual outcomes having come in below expectations quarter by quarter for close to two years. The September quarter continued this trend, with headline and the average of the core measures again sub-consensus at 0.4% (market 0.5%) and 0.3% (market 0.4%). More significant for policy, annual headline and core inflation again fell below the 2.0%yr lower bound of the RBA’s inflation range, now 1.9%yr and 1.7%yr.</p>
<p>Within the quarter, there were many opposing influences, but the main theme was the offsetting of petrol and tobacco inflation by disinflation across house purchase costs and rents and the continued absence of pricing power for the retail sector. Though petrol will remain inflationary in coming months, persistent weakness in housing costs will limit the net effect for headline inflation. As the core measure typically omits energy costs, the effect here will be lopsided and result in annual core inflation holding below the RBA’s 2-3%yr target range through the end of 2019. Together with GDP growth tending back to trend in 2019, this trend will see the RBA remain on hold through 2020.</p>
<p>The soft housing inflation pulse is a consequence of declining house prices and rising supply (restricting rental growth). This week, the October CoreLogic house price data showed that this national decline in house prices is continuing. The decline is led by Sydney (-7.4%yr) and the top end of the market (the top 25% of sales by price down 7.7%yr versus -0.9%yr for the bottom 25%). However, we continue to see evidence of the weakness broadening, with 80% of dwellings now having seen price declines over the past six months compared to 60% for the past year. By dwelling type, losses remain largest for houses. This is consistent with the relative outperformance of houses over apartments to the cycle peak, but is also evidence that increasing apartment supply is yet to affect the price trend materially.     </p>
<p>Dwelling approvals data for September was also released this week. While a bounce was seen in the month, approvals are still down 14% over the year. Further, if high-rise approvals in Victoria are omitted, we estimate approvals actually fell 7.5% in September, with the weakness broad-based by state and dwelling type. Given this trend decline in prices and approvals, it is unsurprising that housing credit growth continues to decelerate. In 3-month annualised terms, total housing credit has slowed from 6.8% in May 2017 to 4.7% currently. Though investor credit has been the primary driver of this softening, owner-occupier credit has also slowed, from 8.7% in July 2017 to 6.4% currently.     </p>
<p>Turning to the US, GDP was again strong in the September quarter at 3.5% annualised. Driving the result was a willing consumer, with growth in this sub-sector rising 4.0% annualised – well ahead of the average of the post-GFC period. Elsewhere however, there were a number of signs that higher interest rates are beginning to take effect. This was most obvious in residential construction, now down around 3% annualised over the past nine months. More important for the economy are glimpses of weakness in business investment following a strong start to the year. The latter deceleration fits well with regional business survey detail on investment intentions, hit by trade policy uncertainty, as well as core orders and shipments, which were flat through the September quarter.</p>
<p>For growth to persist at an above-trend pace, consumption must continue to fire. On this front, the upside surprise for the employment cost index in the third quarter, a 0.8% gain for total compensation, was promising. That said, annual income growth still remains relatively modest at 2.8%yr. To sustain the current pace of consumption, quarterly gains nearer 1.0% are consistently needed. We are not convinced this will occur. Instead, together with tighter financial conditions, we foresee a stabilisation in nominal household incomes around 3.5%yr in 2019. Absent dissaving, this would be consistent with real household consumption closer to 2.5-3.0% annualised than the current 4.0% pace. If consumption does slow, then together with a softening pulse for business investment and the loss of extraordinary support from fiscal policy (in late 2019), US growth will slow back to trend during 2019 and result in the FOMC going on hold after three more rate hikes to June 2019.</p>
<p>While debate over the US economy remains focused on whether growth will be at or above trend, for Europe the risk of sub-trend growth is building. From 2.7%yr in 2017, growth slowed to a 1.6% annualised pace in the first half of 2018. And now the first estimate for the September quarter has disappointed, coming in at just 0.8% annualised, below our estimate of trend growth, 1.2%yr. One-off factors were reportedly at play in the most recent three months, so more time is arguably needed to assess the trend. External demand has been the primary reason growth has slowed in 2018, but looking forward, domestic political risks are paramount. In addition to concerns over Italy, this week, the source of uncertainty was in Germany with Chancellor Angela Merkel announcing that she will not contest her CDU Party leadership this December. She intends to remain as Chancellor until the end of the Coalition Government’s term in 2021, but will not stand for re-election.</p>
<p>In the UK, the Brexit deadline grows nearer. With those clouds up ahead, the BoE left rates on hold this week while retaining their gradual tightening bias. The economy is described as “broadly in balance” with the domestic labour market tight and wages growth picking up more than expected. Indeed, if it were not for Brexit uncertainty, the Bank rate would be higher, with the BoE signalling that a smooth Brexit would see a steeper rate path.   </p>
<p>Finally to Asia, there we have seen moderating global growth and US trade policy continue to weigh on the manufacturing sector of China and other east Asian nations. For China in particular, domestic demand remains a positive, aided of late by stabilising business and infrastructure investment. However, going forward, the downtrend in employment growth poses a risk. This highlights why authorities are becoming more active in the management of the domestic economy and US’ tariffs effect on China’s external competitiveness.</p>
<p><em>Elliot Clarke is a Senior Economist for Westpac</em></p>
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