Melbourne to be hit hardest in 2019 property price falls: Moody's Analytics
The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets will keep leading the property price decline, after sustained weakness in 2018, according to the latest report from Moody's Analytics.
The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics report estimates that the Sydney housing market declined by 5.2% in 2018, and a further 3.3% drop is forecast for 2019. This follows the 12.8% rise in 2017.
However, apartment values are set to recover modestly after a 2.9% decrease in 2018.
House values in Melbourne are set for a steeper correction; they are forecast to fall by 6% in 2019 on the back of declines in Inner Melbourne areas, compared with a 0.1% fall in 2018.
Melbourne’s apartment market is expected to have slowed in 2018, followed by sharper slowdown in 2019.
The report said house values across Brisbane are forecast to gain a mild 1.2% in 2019, with strength in West Brisbane and Inner Brisbane offsetting declines in South Brisbane.
"The worst is likely over for Brisbane’s apartment market."
"Apartment values are forecast to recover by 2.8% in 2019, followed by sharper growth of 6.5% in 2020," the report added.
Although commodity prices are stabilising, house values in Perth will likely decline 2.8% in 2019, followed by a recovery in 2020, thanks to population growth.
Meanwhile, Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run: House values in Adelaide are forecast to rise 2.6% in 2019, after a 1.9% expected gain in 2018.
Hobart’s housing market is likely at the end of its bull run; home values are forecast to decelerate to 2.7% in 2019, followed by a 2% fall in 2020.
Similarly, the Hobart apartment market will likely decelerate from 11.7% growth in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019, the report noted.
The report authors, said "Australia’s housing market has continued its entrenched cooling trend in the final months of 2018."
"The decline has been sharper in home values over apartment values: Home values have fallen more than 4.5% from their peak late last year, while apartment values are down 3.3%," they concluded.
