Construction Work

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GUEST OBSERVER
Construction work, having trended lower in recent years, stabilised over the past half year. The drag from the mining investment downturn has diminished and public works is providing a boost.
In the March quarter 2017, construction work declined by a relatively modest 0.7 percent, following a 0.6 percent gain in the final quarter of 2016 (revised up from -0.2 percent). By comparison, over the year to September 2016, construction work declined by 10.7 percent, to be $5.6bn below a year earlier.
The March quarter 2017 result broadly met expectations, (market median -0.5 percent and Westpac -0.2 percent).
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In NSW and Qld, activity in the most recent quarter appears to have been disrupted by wet weather and flooding.
The wet weather impact is evident in the private home building segment, where work nationally on new dwellings fell by 4.8 percent and renovations were down by 6.3 percent. In NSW, total residential building activity fell by 4.9 percent in Q1, while Qld experienced a sharp 13.6 percent decline. These outcomes are weaker than suggested by earlier strength in approvals and the sizeable pipeline of work.
Home building activity is likely to rebound in the June quarter. Beyond that, there is a looming downturn in home building activity. Notably, private new dwelling approvals in Q1 2017 were 12 percent below the level of a year earlier.
The drag from the mining investment downturn has clearly diminished. Private infrastructure activity surprisingly rose in the March quarter, up 1.8 percent. We still expect some further modest downside over coming quarters.
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In the mining state of WA, where work on gas projects under construction is nearing completion, total infrastructure activity is declining at a slower rate. Over the past half year, work fell by 12 percent, down $0.7bn. For the year prior to that, work fell by 51 percent, a decline of $5.5bn.
Public works is a growth driver as governments commit to additional projects. Public works increased in each of the past seven quarters, up a cumulative 21 percent. That is the longest run of consecutive gains since 2008 to 2010, associated with the post GFC fiscal stimulus package.
Victoria is performing strongly, with construction work in Q1 up 3.4 percent/qtr, 9.2 percent/yr. Strength is evident in building activity, +12 percent/yr, both residential and non-residential.
In NSW, construction work consolidated over the past year, with a Q1 outcome of -1.7 percent/qtr, +0.8 percent/yr. While infrastructure work moved higher, +6.6 percent/yr, building work eased, -2.2 percent/yr, led lower by a pull-back in commercial work.
In Qld, construction work has stabilised, printing at -1.9 percent/qtr, -1.0 percent/yr in Q1. This follows falls of 22 percent in 2014 and 24 percent in 2015 associated with the mining investment downturn. Over the past year, infrastructure work rebounded by almost 14 percent.
In WA, construction work fell by -4.8 percent/qtr, -37.4 percent/yr in Q1.
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Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-hanlan-4302223/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
 
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Construction work stabilised over the past half year: Andrew Hanlan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Construction work, which is trending lower, stabilised in Q4, -0.2 percent, after a surprising sharp fall in Q3, -4.4 percent.
Construction work has been trending lower over recent years as mining investment falls back to more normal levels.
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Within that trend, the second half of 2016 was a volatile half year.  Q3 was particularly weak, -4.4 percent, in part due to bad weather. Q4 saw construction work stabilise at lower levels, -0.2 percent.
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The Q4 result was not greatly different to our expectations (Westpac f/c -0.8 percent and market median +0.5 percent).
The outcome does not alter our views on Q4 GDP, with our forecast at 0.4 percent/qtr, 1.5 percent/yr after a Q3 outcome of -0.5 percent/qtr, 1.8 percent/yr.
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By asset, key points are:
Private infrastructure activity fell further, -3.5 percent, with the mining investment downturn nearing its end. We had expected a sharper fall, -6 percent.  New home building activity advanced, +0.9 percent, consistent with strength in building approvals and a sizeable work pipeline. That follows a surprise 1.9 percent fall in Q3, constrained by bad weather.
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Renovation work rose 2.2 percent, more than reversing a 0.3 percent dip in Q3, consistent with rising approvals and positive fundamentals. 
Private commercial building rose 5.1 percent, after a sharp 10.8% fall in Q3, a decline that was overdue given earlier falls in approvals. More recently, approvals have lifted.
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Public works surprised to the low side, declining by 1.6 percent, whereas we had anticipated a rise of 1.6 percent. Public building work fell sharply, while public infrastructure activity consolidated in the quarter whereas a sizeable and rising work pipeline points to upside.
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-hanlan-4302223/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Current renovation work reverses Q3 dip: Andrew Hanlan

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Construction activity eases: Construction work done in the December quarter fell by 3.6 percent, driven by a 9.5 percent slump in engineering work. Residential work lifted by 2.8 per cent to record highs while commercial building rose 2.5 percent.
Building inflation: Building inflation rose by 1.1 per cent in the December quarter, the biggest quarterly gain in seven years. The annual rate of construction inflation rose from 1 per cent to 1.9 percent – matching the fastest annual growth rate in four years.
Slow wage growth: The wage price index rose by 0.5 percent in the December quarter after a 0.6 percent rise in the September quarter. Annual wage growth eased from 2.3 percent to a record (18-year) low of 2.2 percent.
Industry with fastest annual wage growth: Financial and insurance services (up 2.8 percent) followed by education &amp; training (up 2.6 percent).
Industries with slowest annual wage growth: Administrative and support services (up 1.4 percent), followed by Mining (up 1.5 percent).
The data on construction work is important for builders, building material companies and developers.
What does it all mean?
The ‘baton pass’ from engineering to residential building is clear for all to see. Engineering work continues to recede while home building has hit new highs. Interestingly building (residential and commercial) has surpassed engineering in terms of total work for the first time in five years. The results are even more staggering when you consider that just two years ago engineering work surpassed total building by more than $11 billion. 
The speed of the turnaround has shown up in the patchiness across the national economy and in effect highlights the difficulties faced by policymakers in trying to shore up growth.
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The wages data confirmed that inflation is well and truly in check. However an area to watch over the next couple of quarters is inflationary pressures in the high-flying home building sector. Inflation in the construction sector rose by the 1.1 percent in the December quarter – the fastest quarterly growth rate in seven years. The lack of inflation in the rest of the economy should ensure that for the moment the latest result doesn’t trouble the Reserve Bank.
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Clearly, the job market is improving because the cost of labour has become more affordable for businesses. While low wage growth is good for keeping costs down for businesses, modest real wage growth (wages less prices) makes it more difficult for consumer-focussed businesses.
Real wage growth remains positive – around 0.5 percentage points if judged against “headline” inflation (15-year average 0.7 percentage points) and around 0.2 percentage points when judged against “underlying” inflation.
Today’s data is unlikely to alter the Reserve Banks thinking when it comes to rates. While policymakers may discuss the merits of another rate cut, they are unlikely to pull the trigger on domestic conditions. Rather a rate cut would be driven by changes in the global environment.
What do the figures show?
Construction Work
Construction work done fell by 3.6 per cent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in the December quarter after sliding by 1.8 percent in the September quarter. Work done is down by 4.3 percent on a year ago. Public sector construction work rose by 1.2 percent in the quarter while private sector activity fell by 4.6 percent.
Construction work fell in five of the states and territories in the December quarter. Leading the falls was Northern Territory (down 17.7 percent), followed by Western Australia (down 9.5 percent), Tasmania (down 4.3 percent), South Australia (down 3.1 percent), and Queensland (down 1.4 percent). Tasmania (down 1.8 percent) and ACT (down 0.6 percent). Construction rose in Victoria (up 1.1 percent), ACT (up 1 percent) and NSW (up 0.2 percent).
Engineering work fell by 9.5 percent in the December quarter and has now fallen almost 25 percent in the past three years. Engineering construction is down by 14.7 percent on a year ago.
Commercial (non-residential) building rose by 2.5 percent in the December quarter to be up 2.2 percent over the year.
Residential building rose by 2.8 percent in the December quarter and was up by 11.5 percent over the year.
Alterations &amp; additions fell by 1.2 percent in the quarter while new residential work rose by 3.3 percent.
The measure of inflation in the construction sector (deflator) rose by 1.1 percent in the December quarter, the biggest gain in 7 years. The annual rate of construction inflation rose from 1 percent to 1.9 percent – matching the fastest annual growth rate in four years. Engineering prices rose by 1.5 per cent in the quarter (up 0.8 percent over the year) while building prices rose by 0.5 percent in the quarter (2.7 percent over the year).
Wage price index
The wage price index rose by 0.5 percent in the December quarter after a 0.6 percent rise in the September.
Annual wage growth eased from 2.3 percent to a record (18-year) low of 2.2 percent.
Private sector wages rose by 0.5 percent in the quarter while  public sector wages also rose by 0.5 percent.
Annual growth of private sector wages fell from 2.1 percent in the September quarter to a record low of 2.0 percent in the December quarter. Public sector wage growth fell from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent in the December quarter.
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Including bonuses, wages rose by 0.5 percent in original terms in the December quarter to be up 2.2 percent on a year ago – a record low. Private sector wages including bonuses rose by 0.5 percent in the quarter to be up 2.1 percent on a year ago (or up 2.2 per cent at a total hourly rate).
Industries with fastest annual wage growth: Financial and insurance services (up 2.8 percent), followed by education &amp; training (up 2.6 percent) and Manufacturing and retail trade (both up 2.5 percent).
Industries with slowest annual wage growth: Administrative and support services (up 1.4 percent), followed by Mining (up 1.5 percent), Professional, scientific and technical services and Construction (both up 1.6 percent).
Annual wage growth across States &amp; Territories: NSW, 2.1 percent; Victoria, 2.4 percent; Queensland, 1.9 percent; South Australia, 2.3 percent; Western Australia, 1.8 percent; Tasmania, 2.2 percent; Northern Territory, 2.4 percent; and ACT, 1.6 percent.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Bureau of Statistics releases quarterly estimates of  Construction work done. The estimates are based on a survey and cover around 85 percent of the construction work done in the period. Revised estimates will be released in coming months. The data is useful largely for historical purposes but the work yet to be done estimates provide an early warning signal of future activity. The residential work figures give a good early guide to the strength of residential investment in the national accounts.
The Wage Price Index has been compiled since September quarter 1997 and measures quarterly changes in wage and salary costs for employees. The index is based on a representative sample of employees, and includes measures of non-wage costs including superannuation, payroll tax, public holiday and workers compensation.
The Wage Price Index is useful in measuring wage pressures in the economy. While strong growth in wages would boost domestic spending, it could also serve to lift employer costs and prices and add to economy-wide inflationary pressures. The wage price index is a measure of hourly pay rates (excluding bonuses).
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
There is plenty of work in the construction sector. But there are winners and losers across states and industry sectors. Construction activity in Queensland remains a concern. In the past two years, construction work has slumped by 45 percent in Queensland – the most of any state or territory. The lack of construction work in Queensland needs to be addressed by the State Government as it is robbing the economy of momentum.
In contrast to Queensland, construction activity in Victoria hit record highs in the December quarter. Builders, tradespeople and construction firms need to be mobile in the current environment.
The Reserve Bank will be pleased about current trends in construction. Overall activity is correcting as expected and adjusting to the new realities. And while inflation in the home building is higher than in the rest of construction and higher than consumer prices, that is to be expected given soaring activity.
We expect the Reserve Bank to stay on the interest rate sidelines over coming months.
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Tame wages and home building at record highs: Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
Anyone questioning the health of the economy needs to be pointed in the direction of the home building sector. More homes are being built than ever before, with almost $44 billion of work currently in the pipeline.
There are signs that activity is topping out – but at high levels with a record amount of work to be completed.
Investors should display a healthy degree of caution because there is a huge amount of new housing stock to be absorbed over the next few years. Rental vacancy rates need to be watched closely.
The monthly consumer confidence data has lost relevance given that a weekly version is released with a similar sampling regime. As noted yesterday, confidence has fallen over recent weeks due to financial market volatility and a lower Australian dollar.
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What do the figures show? 
Building starts
Dwelling starts (commencements) rose by 0.5 percent in the September quarter after a 0.2 percent increase in the June quarter. Work started on a record 215,053 new dwellings over the year to September, up 13.4 percent on the previous year.
At present a record 194,252 homes are under construction.
Across Australia, starts in the September quarter rose in five states: NSW (up 2.4 percent); Victoria (down 3.8 percent); Queensland (down 1.0 percent); South Australia (up 1.2 percent); Western Australia (up 1.7 percent); Tasmania (down 20.7 percent); Northern Territory (up 17.4 percent); and the ACT (up 0.7 percent).
In the year to September, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in all the states &amp; territories except for South Australia (down 2.9 percent). Starts were at record highs in NSW and Victoria.
Dwelling starts in NSW in the year to September were 60.7 per cent above the decade average.
The value of commercial building starts edged up from $28.88 billion to $28.95 billion in the year to September. The annual total of commercial building starts is near 9-year lows.
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Consumer sentiment:
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 3.5 percent in January after falling by 0.8 percent in December. The confidence index is up 4.3 percent on a year ago.
The current conditions index fell by 5.1 percent while the expectations index fell by 2.4 percent.
Four of the five components of the index fell in January:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down by 9.4 percent;</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was downby 2.3 percent;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down by 5.0 percent;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up by 0.39 percent;</li>
<li>The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down by 1.7 percent.</li>
</ul>
State sentiment levels: NSW (up 3.3 percent), Victoria (down 1.0 percent), Queensland (down 3.1 percent), Western Australia (up 3.5 percent) and South Australia (down 3.0 percent).
Job market outlook: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 0.7 percent in January but was 5.3 percent below its value a year ago.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose by 13.9 percent to the highest reading since May 2015.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases data on dwelling commencements (starts) each quarter. The figures provide guidance on future construction activity. If construction begins on new houses or apartments, it signifies work for building trades.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Strong home building activity will support the economy over the next 12-18 months. As a result, CommSec expects no change to interest rate settings in coming months.
There could be an ‘ingestion’ problem as residential projects get completed. If investors can’t find tenants, new homes may be put up for sales, depressing home prices.
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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