Australian property market

EXPERT OBSERVER

There&rsquo;s a strong argument that Brisbane is the leader among the major markets around Australia. Two-thirds of suburbs have rising sales activity and almost 90% have rising prices. Hotspotting&rsquo;s Autumn 2021 survey of sales activity three months ago identified 124 rising suburbs, easily a record for Brisbane. Our new winter survey has smashed that record, with 141 suburbs with rising sales activity.

The past four surveys have found 28, 56, 124 and now 141 rising suburbs, a pattern that encapsulates Brisbane&rsquo;s dramatic rise.

In our Spring 2019 survey, about 18 months ago, we classified 32 suburbs as declining markets and five as danger markets, with only 21 growth markets (most were plateau or consistency markets). Now, for the first time in five years, there are no suburbs we rank as declining or danger markets.

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<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/brisbane-qld?source_news_article_id=102220&amp;ref=news_body_link"><img alt="" height="800" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/template_photoshop_brisbane_1.jpg" width="1200" /></a>

Partly this is due to dramatic improvements in the Brisbane-inner locations. This market has suffered in recent years from a major over-supply of apartments and most of the danger markets from previous surveys have been in this precinct: now vacancies are significantly lower and demand is rising for both houses and apartments.

Of the 22 Brisbane-inner suburbs ranked in our upcoming Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index, 17 are now classified as rising markets &ndash; and there are no longer any ranked as danger markets.

But there are large numbers of growth suburbs right across the Greater Brisbane Area, led by Moreton Bay Region in the far north (28 rising suburbs) and Logan City in the far south (25). The big improver is Ipswich City, which three months was still lagging the rest of Brisbane and had only five growth suburbs. Now, of the 14 Ipswich suburbs ranked in The Price Predictor Index, 11 are classified as growth suburbs. Bundamba (quarterly sales of 8 21 23 52) and Brassall (23 42 53 85) provide two dramatic examples. Both have median house prices in the low $300,000s.

Logan City, which showed major advances in our previous survey with 17 growth suburbs, has improved further and now has 25 growth suburbs. Woodridge sales have been 9 12 25 37 85 while Yarrabilba has been 42 51 69 93 and Eagleby 27 32 42 48 75, data which charts firstly recovery and then boom.

Moreton Bay Region is often the Brisbane market leader and this continues, with 28 growth&nbsp;suburbs, down slightly from 31 in the previous survey. Neighbouring Brisbane-north has also dropped slightly from 20 growth suburbs to 19, but remains a very strong market. There are also notable numbers of rising suburbs in the Brisbane-east, Brisbane-south and Redland City precincts.

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PRICES: When we did our prices analysis three months ago, 76% of suburbs had delivered annual growth in their median house prices. This latest analysis finds that 89% of suburbs have had growth in the past 12 months.

Similarly, there has been improvement in the apartment markets, from 56% to 64% of suburbs recording annual growth in their median unit prices. The uplift in house prices is spread right across the Greater Brisbane Area, through a variety of price points in the inner, middle and outer ring precincts.

The Brisbane East precinct is a particular standout, with 12 suburbs delivering annual growth between 8% and 19%. The best performers have been Carina Heights, up 17% to $775,000, and East Brisbane, up 19% to $930,000. Lota ($690,000), Balmoral ($1,180,000) and Murarrie ($710,000) have all lifted 13%, while Tingalpa ($600,000), Norman Park ($1,010,000), Manly ($935,000) and Camp Hill ($975,00) all rising 10-11%. Carindale, Manly West and Wynnum has all grown 8%.

The neighbouring Redlands City area has also produced multiple growth suburbs, led by Thorneside (up 12% to $610,000) and Cleveland (up 10% to $645,000). Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Capalaba, Ormiston, Thornlands and Victoria Point have all increased 7-9%. There are numerous growth markets in the city&rsquo;s north. Increases in the Brisbane North precinct have been led by Ashgrove (up 16% to $1,140,000), Clayfield (up 17% to $12,40,000), Banyo (up 14% to $625,000) and Sandgate (up 13% to $800,000). Suburbs which have recorded annual growth between 7% and 9% include Ascot, Chermside, Everton Park, Hendra, Taigum, Kedron and Stafford Heights.

A little further north, growth in the Moreton Bay Region is led by Eatons Hill (up 13% to $690,000), while Banksia Beach, Clontarf, Everton Hills, Kippa Ring and Strathpine have all increased 7-8%.

In the Brisbane South precinct, Yeronga has been a city growth leader, with its median house price rising 31% to $1,115,000 in the past 12 months. Holland Park ($820,000) is up 13%, while Wishart ($800,000), Moorooka ($695,000), Tarragindi ($865,000) and Upper Mount Gravatt ($680,000) all have increased 10-12%.

Further south, growth markets in Logan City include Daisy Hill (up 20% to $570,000) and Windaroo (up 16% to $560,000), while Waterford, Underwood, Eagleby, Edens Landing and Jimboomba have all grown 7-9%.

Among the inner-city suburbs, New Farm has grown 20% to $1,855,000, Bardon is up 17% to $1,175,000, West End is up 13% to $1,115,000 and Woolloongabba has increased 15% to $870,000.

Of the Brisbane West suburbs, St Lucia has jumped 23% to $1,505,000, Graceville is up 17% to $1,035,000 and Taringa, Chapel Hill and Sinnamon Park have all increased 10-11%.

Two-thirds of suburbs have rising sales activity and almost 90% have rising prices

terryryder

Brisbane is now the leader among Australia's property markets: Terry Ryder

<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

It&rsquo;s been quite the week for the Aussie property market. National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs. Leading indicators of construction activity are also at the highest level on record, pointing to continued home price gains this year and next.

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect prices to lift by a combined 14 per cent in 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;

That said, home price growth and residential building activity could ease from elevated levels as affordability constraints for first home buyers, the HomeBuilder expiry, shortages of tradies, supply disruptions, rising building material costs and slower population growth combine to weigh on demand. Of course, a prolonged period of record low interest rates - as signalled by the Reserve Bank - remains a key support for new home building and &lsquo;renos&rsquo;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

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The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and Housing Industry Association&rsquo;s (HIA) Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from historic highs in April. But the underlying activity index climbed 5.1 points to a record high of 62.8 points as building work increased ahead of the HomeBuilder grant deadline on March 31. While house building activity is a smidgen below February&rsquo;s record levels, engineering construction lifted 2.3 points to an all-time high of 63.8 as infrastructure-related building cranked up a gear courtesy of state government spending.

And the pipeline of residential building work is expected to remain elevated in the near-term if leading indicators of activity, such as building approvals, are any guide. Council approvals to build new homes surged by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units. The value of alterations &amp; additions approved were up by 7.3 per cent in March to a record $1,072.5 million.

Western Australian building approvals - while down in March - were up a massive 129.2 per cent on a year ago. And the rolling annual number of Greater Perth building approvals hit a 4&frac12;-year high of 19,427 units in March. The building boom is also evident in Queensland and South Australia with March approvals up 82.2 per cent and 69.6 per cent, respectively, on a year ago. Rolling annual numbers are broadly at 2-year highs in both states. &nbsp;

New car sales have bounced back from their most recent cycle low in October 2020. Sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the most sales for an April month on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago &ndash; from the depths of pandemic lockdown.

While the global semiconductor chip shortage is weighing on the supply of new cars for eager car buyers, its boosting the profits of car dealerships with less price discounting due to low inventories and strong buyer demand. Peter Warren Automotive (PWA Holdings) made a successful Aussie sharemarket debut last week, joining Eagers Automotive and Autosports Group as the only car dealership groups on the Australian Stock Exchange.&nbsp;

What do you need to know?&nbsp;

Building Approvals &ndash; March

Council approvals to build new homes rose by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years.

Total house approvals rose by 1.2 per cent to a record-high 14,404 units in March to be up 62.2 per cent on a year ago. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units to be up 60.9 per cent on a year ago. Public sector house approvals surged 117.4 per cent in March to 287 units but were still up a massive 173.3 per cent on a year ago.

Apartment approvals jumped 59.4 per cent to a 2&frac12;-year high of 8,772 units in March to be up 28.1 per cent on a year ago.

Over the past year 198,439 new homes were approved - a 2-year high.

Dwelling approvals across states in March: NSW (+26.9 per cent); Victoria (+24.7 per cent); Queensland &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; (+12.1 per cent); South Australia (+3.5 per cent); Western Australia (-6.4 per cent); Tasmania (-4.8 per cent).

The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 36.3 per cent in March. Total residential approvals lifted 22.9 per cent with new building up 25.4 per cent and alterations &amp; additions up by 7.3 per cent to all-time highs. Commercial building umped 59.4 per cent.&nbsp;

New vehicle sales - April

New vehicle sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the highest number of sales for the month of April on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported:

&ldquo;The April 2021 market of 92,347 new vehicle sales is an increase of 53,421 vehicle sales or 137.2 per cent on April 2020 (38,926) vehicle sales. April 2021 had 23.6 selling days compared to April 2020 with 23.9 which resulted in an increase of 2284.3 vehicle sales per day.

The Passenger Vehicle Market is up by 8,906 vehicle sales (97.2 per cent) over the same month last year; the Sports Utility Market is up by 31,154 vehicle sales (172.9 per cent); the Light Commercial Market is up by 12,278 vehicle sales (130.1 per cent); and the Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market is up by 1,083 vehicle sales (46.9 per cent) versus April 2020.

Toyota was market leader in April, followed by Mazda and Mitsubishi. Toyota led Mazda with a margin of 10,156 vehicle sales and 11.0 market share points.&rdquo; &nbsp;

Sales across states and territories over the year to April: NSW (up 143.9 per cent); Victoria (up 142.0 per cent); Queensland (up 144.4 per cent); South Australia (up 134.7 per cent); Western Australia (up 139.0 per cent); Tasmania (up 157.6 per cent); Northern Territory (up 98.4 per cent); ACT (up 4.1 per cent).

In the 12 months to April, sales totalled 1,000,676 &ndash; a 13-month high &ndash; to be up 1.0 per cent on a year ago. In the year to April, SUVs accounted for a record 69.3 per cent of combined SUV and passenger car sales.

AiGroup &amp; HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) &ndash; April

The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from a record high of 61.8 in March to 59.1 in April. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, PCI activity rose 5.1 points in April to a record 62.8. But employment fell 3.9 points to 59.2. New orders lost 7.7 points to 57. Supplier deliveries were down 6.1 points to 56.0 &ndash; but all three readings are hovering just below historic highs in March. And input prices eased 0.4 points in April to 92.5. Selling prices rose 1.5 points to a record 73.3 and average wages fell 6.4 points to 65.4.

Ai-Group noted: &ldquo;The new orders index appears to have peaked in Q1 of 2021, reflecting the very successful HomeBuilders program. This is in line with recent house approvals and financing trends. Although approvals have already peaked, the pipeline of work created by this spike in demand is likely to keep home builders busy for many months to come.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Builders across all sectors continue to report shortages of skilled trades contractors, key supplies and components. They also report rising input prices, freight delays and high freight charges. Home builders remain wary of a post-HomeBuilder demand slump but are hopeful that low interest rates and other factors will help to support demand.&rdquo;

IHS Markit Purchasing Managers&rsquo; indexes (PMI) &ndash; April

The &lsquo;final&rsquo; IHS Markit services purchasing manager index rose from 55.5 in March to a record 58.8 in April. The composite index, which measures combined services and manufacturing output, rose from 55.5 to an historic high of 58.9. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity. Data collection began in May 2016.

IHS Markit economists reported, &ldquo;April PMI data signalled that business activity across the Australian service sector rose at the strongest pace since data collection began in May 2016, reflecting further moves towards recovery. This was aided by the further easing of COVID-19 restrictions which boosted customer confidence and demand alike.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Service providers were enthused by the upturn in demand and expanding their workforce numbers at the joint-fastest pace on record. Nonetheless, strains on business capacity remained evident and intensified amid ongoing supplier delays.&rdquo;

What are the implications for investors?

The HomeBuilder stimulus has been incredibly successful. Commonwealth Treasury data shows that 121,363 HomeBuilder applications have been received since June 2020 with Victorian applications highest at 35,169 as at April 9, 2021. The federal government has said that the scheme has supported around $30 billion of residential projects, supporting jobs and boosting building activity following the pandemic shock.

While there are concerns that the demand pull-forward of council building approvals ahead of the HomeBuilder expiry could ease, construction bottlenecks have seen the federal government recently announce the extension of the building commencement requirement of the program, supporting activity. That said, construction prices are lifting with the PCI selling prices up 1.5 points in April to 73.3, signalling that builders are passing on their cost increases to home buyers and renovators. With inflationary pressures building - and home prices and new investor lending lifting &ndash; housing credit growth appears set to accelerate. Given this backdrop, an eventual policy response from regulators appears likely. &nbsp;

National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs

jordan_55689

Home values to rise by combined 14% in 2021 and 2022: CBA's Ryan Felsman

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

On the one hand it points out that: “In an environment of accommodative financial conditions with rising asset prices it is particularly important that there is not excessive risk-taking by the financial sector ... increasing the debt-related risks to the economy and financial system from a fall in asset prices and borrowers’ income.”

The Bank describes these risks as: “looser lending standards for individual loan assessments, or a relaxation of internal limits on the share of riskier loans ... [or from] increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers which could see a deterioration in the average quality of new lending”.

This last style of risk appears to be with investors in mind.

To date, however, the Bank describes lending standards as largely unchanged and remaining robust: “the share of high LVR lending increased over the second half of 2020 but remains low by historical standards.”

Furthermore: “credit growth has increased but remains modest and has mostly been driven by lending to owner occupiers" although “investor loan commitments have started to rise.”

Our own analysis of loan approvals points to investor commitments rising by 31% in the last six months compared to gains of 24% for 'upgraders' and 30% for first home buyers.

However the loan approvals to investors account for around 32% of the total housing loans (including all owner occupiers) compared to 65% in 2017 when APRA introduced a range of controls aimed at curtailing investor activity.

On the other hand the Bank points out the solid starting point that will support the resilience of the system to the potential “increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers”. It highlights the improved quality of household balance sheets in the wake of higher house prices (“the share of loans for which the value of the loan exceeds the value of the property has fallen to around 1.25% down from 3% a year ago”).

Household balance sheets also remain in good shape from the perspective of repayment buffers ("Around half of all mortgages have prepayment buffers equivalent to more than 3 months' worth of repayments and, 
for more than one-quarter of loans the buffer exceeds 2 years' worth of repayments" while "the share of loans with prepayment buffers of only one month ... remains close to its pre pandemic level of 40%” and “most loans with low prepayments do not represent large risks to lenders”).

Around two thirds of those with low prepayment buffers are held by investors and/or fixed- rate borrowers with the remaining group of relatively 'risky' borrowers having declined to around 10% of all loans from 15% a year ago.

Other specific risks have also eased. In particular, housing loans on prepayment deferrals have declined to 0.7% of all housing loans from a peak of 11% in May 2020.

House price movements to date are also put into perspective – Sydney and Melbourne prices are now a little above their historical peaks in 2017/18, having risen by 5% over the year compared to the 11% increase in regional areas.

Westpac has forecast national dwelling prices to rise by around 20% over the course of 2021 and 2022. That would put Sydney and Melbourne prices 12–15% above their 2017 peaks by end 2022 – an annual rate of increase of 2–3%, hardly worthy of being described in the emotional vernacular as a 'bubble'.

While the FSR sketches out the risks to the economy of lending excesses associated with rising house prices, current observations point to lenders remaining well disciplined while, at the same time, household balance sheets have strengthened.

The overall impression from the Review is that authorities are some way from seeing the need to adopt any direct controls on lenders to address risks associated with rising house prices.

Westpac continues to expect no significant containment measures in 2021.

The FSR also highlights risks around the outlook for business insolvencies and commercial property.

1. Business insolvencies

Businesses in the arts and recreation, accommodation and food, and transport sectors have continued to receive significant support from the government. Firms in these sectors also tend to be more highly geared and have low levels of liquidity.

The highest risks in these areas are around SMEs (although the share of SMEs with deferred repayments has fallen to just over 1%).

Notwithstanding this, the Review expects insolvencies to rise further for some months although some factors are likely to help moderate the rise – cash supports that allowed businesses to wind down operations without entering into insolvency.

Changes to the insolvency framework and the recently announced SME Recovery Loan Scheme are expected to assist SMEs.

2. Commercial Property – Offices

The FSR notes: “impairment rates on commercial property remain low, consistent with relatively low LVRs and strong debt covenants”.

However these impairments are expected to rise in the CBD office markets where vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne have reached 20 year highs.

The low number of sales transactions increases the uncertainty about recent price trends.

3. Commercial Property – Retail

Rents and valuations have declined by 6 and 15% respectively since 2019 – particularly challenged by the rise of online shopping.

However the dominance of the large real estate investment trusts in this sector significantly reduces contagion risks. Nearly all REIT securities are held by institutions. They entered the pandemic in good financial health with low gearing and were well-placed to absorb the earnings reductions from rent waivers.

Bill Evans is the Chief Economist a Westpac
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The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Review has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

bevans

RBA's Financial Stability Review notes risks but no immediate alarms around housing: Bill Evans

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Listings are up 2.2 percent in Melbourne on this time last year, which is the only capital city to have more stock for sale than last April.

Darwin sees the biggest drop in overall listings, down by 35.9 percent according to CoreLogic.

Other cities aren't too far behind with Canberra, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart all down more than 30 percent in stock levels of private treaty listings.

Related article: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/urbans-top-five-melbourne-apartments-with-5-star-hotel-amenities-for-sale-in-april-2021">Urban's top five Melbourne apartments with 5-star hotel amenities for sale in April 2021</a>

Perth is down 22 percent.

Sydney has the lowest stock dip, at 16 percent.

The chart includes house and apartment resale listings.

<img alt="" height="379" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cl_2021_cc_listings.jpg" width="644">

There are currently 83,000 property listings across the nation, which is 17 percent down on the same time last year.

The level of new stock, ie fresh offerings over the past four weeks, is not a consistent between the capitals.

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Related article: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/vic/april-2021-the-top-5-two-bedroom-apartments-for-investors-in-melbourne-under-800000">The top 5 two-bedroom apartments for investors in Melbourne under $800,000</a>

Perth sees a 64 percent jump in vendors arriving in the market.

Melbourne, Darwin and Adelaide have also seen a spike in fresh listings.

Hobart has seen a contraction in vendors.
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April 2021 sees far fewer overall listings than the same time in 2020

jchancellor

Melbourne is the only capital city with more listings than last April: CoreLogic

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If you’re considering buying a holiday home right now, you’re not alone. With Australians currently forced to put their plans for international travel on hold and the cost of Australian holiday home rentals on the rise, it's no wonder more people are keen to invest in a holiday home to call their own. 

Like anything in life, buying a holiday home has its pros and cons. Here’s what you should consider. 

<h2>Pros of buying a holiday home right now</h2>

The pandemic has put the importance of lifestyle into the spotlight. Having a holiday home to escape to regularly can be an excellent way to improve your quality of life. If you would usually travel overseas regularly, this can also be a good alternative. 

With the costs of renting a holiday home soaring thanks to huge local demand, combined with record low interest rates, we’re experiencing a unique situation where it may actually be more cost effective to buy rather than regularly rent a holiday home. For those who have managed to save more during the pandemic - such as through forgoing the costs of international travel - the costs of a deposit may also already be covered.

If you already spend money on going on holiday in Australia each year, especially if it's to the same place, then spending that money on a mortgage on a holiday home may make sense. Not only are you spending what you would have spent anyway, if not less, but once you’ve paid off the mortgage you then own an asset which will grow over time. If you can’t afford 100% of the mortgage on your own, then you can always rent it out part of the year until you have paid down the mortgage.

For those getting into the market right now, there’s a window of time where prices will remain affordable. We’re already seeing prices in some areas such as Byron Bay rise significantly. Across the board regional home values rose by 0.4 per cent in September or 4.3 per cent year-on-year.

For those looking to rent out their holiday home for part of the year, there has been a sharp increase in rents, resulting in a better return than usual, at least in the short-term.

<hr>
<address>READ: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/qld/5-apartments-for-the-professional-couple-in-queenslands-broadbeach" target="_blank">5 apartments for the professional couple in Queensland’s Broadbeach</a>
</address>

<h2>What are the Cons?</h2>

If you’re looking to purchase a holiday home as an investment, it may not always be the best choice. The short-term surge in rental values might not last once the borders reopen and some people opt to head overseas for their holidays.

If you’re planning on renting out your holiday home when you’re not staying there, you need to be prepared to dedicate time and money to managing bookings, taking inquiries, cleaning and maintaining the property. This can prove burdensome for many people. If your holiday home is not your principal place of residence, then you may need to factor in taxes such as land tax which can impact the property’s affordability. 

If you opt to purchase a holiday home, you’re locked in to one holiday destination. For some people this may feel too limiting, especially once the borders open. 

Securing finance for a holiday home purchase can be more challenging. Lenders will look at the unpredictable rental income and may require a larger deposit, a shorter loan period or a higher interest rate. 

Ultimately, buying a holiday home is a personal choice. Talk to your financial adviser about whether it may be possible with your financial situation and consider your life and wealth goals. If you’ve always wanted to have your own holiday home and it’s an attainable and practical goal, then why not make it happen? 
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Ultimately, buying a holiday home is a personal choice. But, for those getting into the market right now, there’s a window of time where prices will remain affordable

max.kwok_55688

Is now the right time to buy a holiday home?

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If you’re confused about the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/4-reasons-to-have-faith-in-australias-property-market-for-the-long-run">Australian property market</a>, I don’t blame you.  

From some portrayals of the media, there’s nothing but doom and gloom, with talk that COVID-19 will burst Australia’s property ‘bubble’ and see property values tumble.

Others, however, argue that property investment remains a safe bet and will continue to be so for years to come.  

I’m in this camp. I firmly believe that there is still no better way to build wealth in Australia than through <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/guides/how-to-invest-in-property-in-2020-the-ultimate-guide-">property investment</a>.  

Let me explain. 

There are a number of key factors that will continue to drive growth over the long-term. 

Scarcity of Supply and Growing Demand 

The value of anything is determined by its relative scarcity, and scarcity is fuelled by actual and perceived supply and demand. Where there is more demand than supply, the value of something is likely to rise. 

In Australia, a housing shortage will continue to drive the property market. Research from <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/personal/">ANZ</a> in 2016 revealed that Australia faces an estimated property shortage of more 250,000 dwellings, a deficit of 2.6% based on Australia’s housing stock of just under 10 million.  

Changing demographics 

Australians are living longer, and residing in smaller households. 

According to research from <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajag.12113">Professor Graham Hugo</a>, average life expectancy has increased by more than 14 years (about 20%). Looking ahead, the ABS predicts that average life expectancy will be 92 for males and 95 for females by 2050. This means that people will need to be housed for much longer, putting more strain on housing availability. 

Since the mid-1960s, the household has also reduced from 3.4 to 2.4 persons. This 40% decrease is because Australians are choosing to remain single for longer, marrying, partnering and having children later in life, and unfortunately, divorce and separation continues to rise. For example, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/historicaldata?opendocument">ABS statistics from 1986 to 2006 r</a>evealed that one parent households rose by 120% and single households were up 80%.  

Population growth 

Australia has one of the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/new-housing-development-aims-to-cater-to-overwhelming-population-growth-anticipated-for-geelong">highest population growth rates</a> in the developed world. This is mostly due to our high immigration rate. 

And while there is a temporary hold on migration, once the borders are open this growth is set to continue as Australia continues to prove it is one of the safest and best places to live in the world. The ABS predicts that Australia’s population to rise to between 36.8 million and 48.3 million in 2061, reaching as high as 70 million by 2101.

Consider this simplified forecasting - Australia will have 16.5 million more people by 2061 and, based on the average household size of 2.4 persons, we’re looking at around 156,000 extra dwellings each year, on top of the existing national housing shortage of 250,000!

Is now a good time to buy property? 

History has repeatedly shown that property is very resilient to economic shocks as well as continues to hold its value and grow irrespective of <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/covid-19-and-the-pathway-forward-for-property">unemployment levels</a> and negative economic growth. The after-effects of COVID-19 will be no different. 

In fact, current market conditions create a rare window of opportunity to secure <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments">good-quality properties </a>before the combined impact of continued share market volatility, historically low-interest rates and Australian dollar. In addition, massive government stimulus tips confidence and growing demand back into the property market including high-quality properties in scarce locations continue to rise in value. For smart investors, now is the time to pounce not to pause!

Of course, high-growth will not be across every city and region in Australia. It is expected that 70% of property market growth will come from the greater capital city regions of the eastern states: Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. This will be driven by career opportunities (high employment), infrastructure investment and lifestyle needs. 

Property: ‘As safe as houses’

When it comes to property investment, it’s pretty clear that the numbers will continue to stack up. To emphasise the point, if the growth rates of property are equal to or even somewhat less than shares, the power of leverage will almost double your wealth creation compared to equities. 

Of course, before throwing yourself into the property market, make sure you do your <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/how-to-research-an-off-the-plan-property-thoroughly-and-effectively">research</a>, seek advice from experts and put your own, personalised wealth plan in place. 
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vivian_48447

Is Property Still a Good Investment? Find out why..

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<h2>OPINION: </h2>

Australia’s housing market is a topic which I regularly encounter, whether with our customers, readers or even just friends. Whether you are a homeowner, investor or potential buyer, the housing market will impact you in one form or another.

Since the start of 2020, the market has been <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/overwhelming-sales-statistics-last-week-reveal-reinstated-confidence-in-the-off-the-plan-market">performing strongly</a>, where we saw last week’s clearance rate around 80% in both Melbourne and Sydney. The number of properties going under the hammer was also the strongest since 2019, with 1000 and 800 respectively. This statistic was also reflected by the significant increase in listings in our weekly magazine.

While the signs look positive locally, how will the Coronavirus impact Australia’s property market? The main thing to look at is the impact on Australia’s economy. The Coronavirus is set to be declared a pandemic, due to the ease at which it appears to be spreading worldwide. If it can’t be contained quickly, then the impact on economic growth would look dire.

The way I see it, the impact of the virus on Chinese interests in Australian property will be both good and bad. <a href="https://firb.gov.au/">Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) reported</a> that foreign investment plunged by 58% year-on-year from $30 billion to $13 billion in the 2017/18 fiscal year – the lowest level in nearly a decade. This will be compounded by the uncertainty around the virus, so in the short term, we will definitely see a drop in demand.

The <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/news/news/Pages/continuing-travel-ban-to-protect-australians-from-the-coronavirus.aspx">current travel ban</a> has limited many Chinese nationals to enter Australia, especially the international students with many either buying for the short term or buying when they continue living in Australia after graduation. Also, if China continues to restrict the flow of funds out of their country to protect their own economy, it limits the ability of Chinese investors to <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/guides/first-home-buyer-guide-24-simple-steps">buy property in Australia</a>. 

On the other hand, in the long term, many more Chinese may want to migrate overseas, as the virus has made them feel vulnerable in China. If so, we will see a resurgence of strong demand from Chinese foreign buyers in the near future. But a lot is dependent on how the Chinese Government limits the flow of funds to overseas if the economy is doing poorly and also if any easing of Australia’s policy towards foreigner buyers. 

Unfortunately, no one has a crystal ball to be able to accurately predict the future. We can’t be sure how the Coronavirus health crisis will pan out globally. We also can’t be exactly sure how it will affect the Australian economy or our property market until we see an end to the crisis.

<div class="rtecenter">Read next: <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/first-home-buyers-snap-up-property-due-to-fear-of-missing-out">First home buyers snap up property due to ‘fear of missing out’</a>
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