Perth house prices heading towards 24% decline from boomtime peak: QBE Housing Outlook
Perth’s median house price grew by 18% over the three years to December 2014, underpinned by record net overseas and interstate migration inflows, according to QBE's latest housing report. But the good times aren't set to last, the report predicts.
This resulted in tight vacancy rates and significant rental growth. Demand was driven by strong economic conditions brought on by booming mining investment and significantly improved affordability as interest rates were lowered.
But mining investment is now retreating rapidly and economic conditions have weakened considerably.
New engineering construction has tapered off as projects adding additional mining capacity are progressively completed.
Diminished employment opportunity has led to a substantial fall in net migration. In 2014/15, net overseas migration fell below 15,000 persons for the first time since 2004.
Interstate migration has also become a net outflow for the first time since 2003. State unemployment has increased above 6% in the first half of 2016; above the national level of 5.7%.
While mining output has increased, the production phase is less labour intensive than the investment phase. Western Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to continue to rise and remain elevated in the medium term, QBE predict. Net migration inflows are likely to remain soft for now.
After peaking in December 2014, Perth’s median house price fell by 2% in the six months to June 2015, and this has accelerated to a decline of 5.6% in 2015/16. The decline was greatest in the inner Perth suburbs (–7.2%) while both Middle and Outer ring suburbs fell 5.2% in 2015/16.
The higher priced inner suburbs are likely to be feeling the largest impact from the weakness in the higher income resource sector jobs.
Weakening owner occupier demand has seen the number of loans to both first home buyers and upgraders/ downsizers decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2015/16. The decline in investor demand has been more dramatic, with the value of loans to investors falling by 32% in 2015/16.
Rising new dwelling building approvals through the upturn in prices is being reflected in new dwelling completions continuing to rise in 2016.
This contrasts with a sharp decline in the rate of population growth and consequently underlying demand. The Western Australian market has moved into oversupply, which is reflected in vacancy rates of close to 5%; far above the balanced market rate of 3%, say QBE.
With underlying demand likely to continue to weaken, and further dwellings under construction working their way to completion, there is little to place upward pressure on rents and prices through to 2018/19.
Overall, the Perth market is expected to weaken across both house and unit markets. The impact of a rising stock surplus and a slowing state economy is forecast to result in a further decline in Perth’s median house price of 3% to June 2018.
Low interest rates should mitigate a deeper fall in the median house price, which is expected to stabilise in 2018/19, and potentially show a minimal rise, with mining investment bottoming out and interest rates forecast to be cut further in 2018. The forecast median house price of $540,000 at June 2019 is forecast to be 10% below its December 2014 peak.
However, Perth’s median house price in real terms is forecast to be 24% below its peak in March 2007 set during the first mining boom through the middle of the decade.
The unit market has seen rising completions across Perth over the last three years. However, units remain just a third of all new dwelling approvals; well below the other capitals of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Much of the strong migration into Perth has been temporary in nature with the unit market consequently expected to see a greater fall in rents and higher vacancy rates. Temporary residents tend to favour the unit market over the house market given the short term nature of their stay.
Downward rent and price pressures are therefore forecast to be greater in the unit market than the house market. Median unit rents have weakened significantly and Perth’s median unit price has begun to decline, falling by 6.5% in the year to June 2016 to $403,100. Further declines totalling 6% are forecast in 2016/17 and 2017/18, before unit prices bottom out over 2018/19 to be $380,000 at June 2019.
Regional centres in Western Australia have borne the brunt of the impact of the downturn in resource sector investment.
These towns typically have a narrow industry profile and are susceptible to local economic events. Median house prices climbed rapidly through the early boom period as the influx of mining investment led to job creation, population growth and demand for housing.
As the mining investment wound down, median house prices fell sharply while unemployment rates grew rapidly and population left.
• Karratha LGA in the Pilbara region saw earlier price growth as a result of the mid 2000s boom in mining investment, with the median house price already elevated after the GFC in 2009. The median house prices grew 21% to peak at $850,000 from their 2009 level. Since the peak, the median house price has fallen 64% to $304,000 in June quarter 2016. The unemployment rate has risen from 1.8% to 2.3% over the three years to March 2016.
• Port Hedland LGA saw its median house prices rising by 127% between June 2007 and March 2013, reaching a peak of $1.1 million. However, the median house price has since collapsed by 72% to $305,000 at June 2016, while the unemployment rate has risen from 3.3% to 5.0% in the three years to March 2016. It is likely that the unemployment rate in these centres is relatively low as those that are not employed are likely to have left.
Sales volumes in Port Hedland and Karratha in 2015/16 are also well down on previous levels. The lower sales volumes suggests that many owners are retaining their property rather than accepting a loss on sale.
Those that are sold are more likely to be forced sales, which would be helping to drive the median sale price down.
Movements in population and demand have had a big impact on prices in the smaller regional centres, in contrast with Perth, where the median house price has only declined by 4% from its peak.
Perth also experienced a more moderate cycle in prices in the most recent boom in mining investment, with the median house price rising by 32% between December 2008 and September 2014. The larger size of the residential market and more diversified economic base of Perth has helped to support prices.
