"New Melbourne apartments will recalibrate upwards across most markets": Charter Keck Cramer State of the Market Report

Property advisory firm Charter Keck Cramer believes the price gap between house and units in Melbourne to narrow once again having blown out over COVID.

In their State of the Market Report H1 2023, Charter Keck Cramer said Melbourne is not experiencing normal housing market conditions.

"This means that there will continue to be extraordinary price and rent changes with more unique levels of risk and opportunity compared to historical patterns," CKC advised.

They noted that pre-COVID, the long-term price gap between houses and units was 34 per cent, however the median house price in June 2023 was $919,000 for houses compared to $601,000 for units. That's a gap of 53 per cent, which CKC said was "extremely large."

They believe, given rate rises and diminished purchasing capacity for buyers, that additional buyer demand will be driven into the unit market which stands to support price growth and overall apartment price recalibration in new apartments in many locations in Melbourne.

They also expect rental price growth to be around for some time yet, which will attract investors.

"Given the current supply vs demand imbalance, it is reasonable to expect elevated rental growth in the rental market over the next three to four years," the report noted.

"Vacancy rates are anticipated to remain very low given the shortage of supply of dwellings which are struggling to be mobilised combined with the substantial increase in demand for dwellings. Renters are once again having to make lifestyle choices about the types of dwellings (houses, townhouse or apartments) they occupy. They are also starting to group up (to share the rent) which was a pre-pandemic trend which is anticipated to continue in the absence of the delivery of new rental stock."

Vacancy rates across all housing markets in Melbourne are less than three per cent.

Addressing the well documented supply vs demand imbalance, CKC's analysis showed only 4,400 apartments were launched to the market in FY23, which represented the lowest number of launches recorded over the past decade and -82 per cent below the peak levels in FY16. Constructed start on 4,600 apartments in FY23, which was also the lowest number of apartment commencements in the past decade.

Completions in Melbourne Metro were also below trends for a second consecutive year.

"As the market continues to suffer from the lagged impact of COVID, less than 10,000 apartments have been delivered, a decline of -40 per cent compared to the pre-pandemic years."

There are just 10,000 apartments currently under construction and due for completion in FY24 to FY26. CKC believe Melbourne needs to build between 15,000 to 18,000 BTS and BTR apartments every year to accommodate the growing population. They also however believe the government is "substantially underestimating population growth."

"This misalignment between supply and demand is anticipated to remain an ongoing issue, and depending on the responses by Government, could potentially be exacerbated over the balance of the decade."

There's a further 9,200 apartments currently being marketed on top of the 10,000 under construction, but CKC suspect a significant proportion of these projects are likely to be delayed given elevated construction costs and a challenging pre-sale environment.

"We continue to expect Melbourne’s apartment market to remain severely under-supplied as high levels of net overseas migration (NOM) absorb new stock that is able to be mobilised."

CKC believe there are opportunities for developers those developers that are able to proceed with construction at present.

"It is very clear that the buyer and renter markets are seeking new stock but also certainty with respect to both costs and timing. These developers will be delivering completed stock into a market with a shortage of new BTS and BTR apartment supply over the next 2 years and will have the opportunity to be rewarded when providing desirable stock."

CKC are looking ahead to what is anticipated to be some major planning system announcements this month through the State Government’s Housing Statement.

"In summary, it is very reasonable for industry to expect that over the next two years, weekly rents will continue to increase at above average levels of growth and prices of new BTS apartments will recalibrate upwards across most markets. Once the market finds a new equilibrium we anticipate that both rent and price changes will revert to longer-term trends."