New apartment projects in Melbourne at lowest levels since 2010, market to turn in mid-2024: Charter Keck Cramer

Melbourne's unexplainably soft property market continued into the second half of 2023, but the off the plan apartment market in the Victoria capital market will come good in the short to medium term, Charter Keck Cramer forecast.

It was a little over 12 months ago when the property advisory firm suggested prices could spike in the off the plan space as high as 25 per cent. While the expected price movement hasn't materialized just yet, CKC said it will, and it might even be higher than first thought.

They said there are however a few factors which will contribute to the market going this way.

"Our analysis of Melbourne’s housing market shows that the price gap between detached houses and established units is 55% (the pre-pandemic average was 35%)," CKC said.

Their analysis found that established units (townhouses and apartments) are currently undervalued by between 15% to 20%, and given the supply v demand imbalance, will continue to correct upwards over 2024 as the market finds a new equilibrium.

"Our analysis suggests that the established unit market (townhouses and apartments) will need to continue to reprice upwards (by around 15% to 20%) until the house price hierarchy is once again established. It is at this point that new off the plan apartments will be able to be delivered at price points which again make apartment development feasible."

They said the timing for when this occurs will come down to when rates start to cut and when Government incentives are introduced, but when they are, they say the market needs to prepare for dramatic price increases in new off the plan apartments of +25% to +30% (compared to pre-pandemic prices) over the next 12-18 months across many sub-markets.

Government Incentives

Charter Keck Cramer believe there are several essential tools and levers for Government to both avoid and also pull.

"The key tools and levers to avoid include changing negative gearing, changing CGT, introducing rental caps or rental freezes or further increasing any taxes or charges. This will stifle supply, further suffocate investor confidence, and all but ensure the housing targets fail to be achieved."

On the flip side, CKC said there are key tools and levers that are essential that the Government activate so as to stimulate the build to sell apartment markets.

"These include reintroducing off the plan incentives for local and foreign investors, replacing stamp duty with an annual land tax, enticing empty nesters to downsize by removing stamp duty charges and providing rental subsidies to lower income renters.

"Many of these incentives could be introduced for set periods of time until they have the required stimulatory effect on the BTS and BTR apartment markets. Revenue from the supply that is ultimately delivered can then be collected at the back of these projects."

Downsizers to be incentivized

Over 2020-2022 the downsizer segment of the BTS apartment market was the best performing segment of the market. This was because the typical downsizer was less impacted by interest rate rises and many increased their asset base via the large increase in the value of their detached house. As a result, they had the option to downsize into an apartment and also have money to fund their retirement. Over the last 6 months, however, a trend has emerged where the downsizer market has started to lock up and stagnate.

This is because the costs of a new apartment in many sub-markets has increased to the point where the price trade-off that made downsizing financially attractive no longer exists. Charter Keck Cramer notes that the costs of a new apartment, when combined with the upfront stamp duty impost for such a dwelling, means downsizers are being asked to downsize into an apartment via a revenue neutral exchange. The response by many downsizers has unsurprisingly been to remain in place and find other ways to support their children and their lifestyles. What is a concern is that our research shows that many downsizer households are under superannuated and will only downsize if they can age in place but also use part of the house sales proceeds to fund their retirement. Government is strongly encouraged to remove stamp duty for downsizers and also bring in further incentives to encourage them to downsize and retire in a financially responsible manner.

Melbourne's Supply Metrics

Melbourne’s Central City Region has historically delivered the greatest number of new apartments, due to a favourable planning scheme, the availability of sites and the proximity to tertiary educational institutions. Charter Keck Cramer however noted that Melbourne’s Inner Region demonstrates its growing importance to metropolitan Melbourne’s apartment supply in an evolving market.

Melbourne is forecast to be Australia’s fastest growing capital city over the next 3-4 years. Melbourne’s population growth is forecast to measure around +1.9% p.a. over FY2024-FY2027, supporting demand for additional and diverse forms of dwellings.

Only 2,600 apartments were launched to the market in 2023, the lowest number of launches recorded over the past decade and measures almost 40 per cent below the previous low experienced during the pandemic.

CKC found that the most active region in 2023 was the Inner Region (39% of launches) followed by the Central City (33% of launches). Activity decreased significantly across all regions compared to the 12 months prior.

In 2023, construction commenced on 3,700 apartments, the lowest number of apartment commencements recorded over the past decade and a significant decrease on peak levels recorded during 2015 (22,500).

The apartment completions side of the supply metrics were the scariest numbers to read. CKC said that in 2023 completions were at their lowest numbers since 2010.

"As difficult market conditions have dampened launches and commencements, the impact upon completions (and ultimate supply) has well and truly materialised now that any projects that were a legacy of previous cycles have been completed.

"Melbourne is forecast to deliver sub-5000 apartments per annum on average over the coming three years. There are currently 7,700 under construction and due for completion over 2024-2025."

An additional 6,300 are currently being marketed and due to be complete before the end of 2026, however CKC believe a proportion of these projects are likely to be delayed given elevated construction costs and a challenging pre-sale environment.

"Charter Keck Cramer expects Melbourne's apartment market to remain chronically undersupplied for at least the next 2-3 years given current market conditions and the time taken to mobilse and build out high density projects."

Outlook over 2024

Charter Keck Cramer concluded by suggesting it will take a lot more than interest rate cuts to stimulate the build to sell apartment market back to life, but also to facilitate them to deliver the unprecedented quantum of apartments required to allow the Federal and State Governments to achieve the aspirational housing targets.

"After considering all the data, our view is that the market will start to turn towards the middle of 2024. Interest rates need to be cut by at least the middle of the year and several incentives need to be introduced immediately to stimulate the BTS apartment markets.

"These are the swing variables as to how quickly the BTS apartment market starts to turn and how quickly the housing and rental crisis is addressed.

"Our research shows that whilst the industry is preoccupied with prices having to increase by +25% to +30% or more for projects to be viable, the biggest risk and one that Government needs to address over the next decade is the shortage of labour required to build out these projects. In this regard, the migration program needs to be changed and tailored to attract key skilled workers into Australia.

"To conclude, the BTS and BTR apartment markets will continue to improve over the course of 2024 and with the market so chronically starved of supply there stands to be a very strong and elastic response as conditions start to improve over 2024 and into 2025."