Macquarie tips property prices to rise 5 percent in 2020
National property prices will rise by at least 5 per cent next year, according to Macquarie Securities.
Macquarie said in every Australian house price cycle since 1989, price growth followed within seven months after the monthly annualised price decline bottomed.
It has however forecast that prices are likely to fall another 1 or 2 per cent in coming months, then Macquarie expects prices to stop falling over the next few months.
It says likely lower interest rates, easier lending standards and a more settled post-election environment “should see national house prices rise by at least 5 per cent by the end of 2020”.
Movements of as much as 10 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne “wouldn’t surprise us”, it says.
The Government’s first home buyer deposit scheme should also provide “some modest support”, Macquarie says.
Another factor is the relative shortage of fresh home listings in recent months as ellers have kept properties off the market amid the downturn.
Lower borrowing interest rates are likely to be the most powerful factor, Macquarie suggest.
“We assume the RBA cuts by 50 basis points in coming months and most of that is passed through to actual mortgage rates,” Macquarie says.
Macquarie says support for house price growth from APRA’s rule change will be dampened by the fact that most borrowers don’t borrow the maximum loan amount available to them.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority wrote to lenders last month, saying that instead of the 7 per cent floor (which is 7.25 per cent in practice), they would be permitted to set their own minimum interest rate floor for use in assessments.
“Nevertheless, we are conscious that housing process are determined at the margin and the effect of APRA’s changes on the marginal borrower shouldn’t be underestimated.”
The decline from the mid-2017 peak to the trough looks like being 10 per cent nationally, with Sydney’s peak to trough fall to be around 15 to 20 per cent and Melbourne’s close to 15 per cent.
If the peak-to-trough fall is 10 per cent it will be the biggest housing market fall in 40 years, it noted.
Macquarie has lowered home loan interest rates in recent months, despite the cash rate then remaining on hold.
