Property Forecast 2020

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Gosford has taken out the No.1 spot in RiskWise’s 2020 list of Top 10 Danger Zones.

RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg said the NSW suburb topped the list due to a number of factors including the recent bushfire risk, oversupply of units (at more than 72 per cent of existing stock) and that units unsuitable for families were not in high demand.

“It is hard to convince prospective buyers that this is the best investment they can make when there are plenty of other options available,” Mr Peleg said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317]

“Another at-risk area is the suburb of Mascot with 1,061 units in the pipeline, at an addition of 17.67% to existing stock, and where news of the construction defects impacted the entire suburb.

“Areas outside of Sydney and Melbourne, such as Darwin, experienced overall weakness in the property market due to low population growth (the Northern Territory was the only state in Australia that experienced population loss in 2017-18). Darwin units delivered -33.7 per cent capital growth over the last five years.”

<img alt="" src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/14/RiskWise%20DangerZONES.JPG">

He said while apartment prices in Sydney and Melbourne were enjoying price rises, this was not the case in high-supply areas.

“The best case scenario in these areas is they are simply underperforming the market, but the worst case scenario is they are actually losing money,” Mr Peleg said.

“For example, while Domain’s latest House Price Report shows in the 2019 December quarter prices rose 4.3 per cent, this was not the case in suburbs with high oversupply and particularly those affected by construction defects, such as Mascot where prices fell 4.6 per cent to $880,000. In Homebush West, where the Centenary Park building is located, prices also fell 9.3 per cent to $565,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=32227]

“These areas not only have the risk of being in the Danger Zone due to oversupply but also construction defect risk.

“For example, the number of apartment sales in Sydney Olympic Park fall dramatically by 75 per cent following the defects identified in Opal Tower with buyers showing little interest for apartments across the suburb.

“What we are seeing is that new units in high-supply suburbs either resulted in a loss or underperformed the market, even during periods of strong price increases.

“The recent downturn is not the major factor in those losses - even ignoring the recent downturn and then recovery, they are still materially underperforming the market.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201]

According to analysis by BIS Oxford Economics in April last year, two-thirds of Melbourne apartments sold off the plan during the eight-year period between 2011 and 2019 either made no price gains or lost money on resale. In Brisbane, this figure was 50 per cent and in Sydney about a quarter.

Figures from the Real Estate Institute of Australia also show the Brisbane unit market continued to underperform in 2019, resulting in negative 1.2 per cent growth.

Mr Peleg said HIA figures showed building approvals in the 2019 calendar year were 18.5 per cent lower compared to 2018.

“This is well below their peak indicating the demand for off-the-plan units has reduced,” he said. “The expectation was that over time, and with the reduction in dwellings under construction, the stock would be absorbed.

“However, we have recently seen an increase in high-rise dwelling approvals and the risk of losses from buying off-the-plan is increasing. The point is the risks are very tangible, they have been realised and we have witnessed major price reductions in a number of areas with oversupply.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6798]

“It should be noted that even in phenomenal boomtimes, based on that eight-year perspective, when you buy off-the-plan apartments in high-supply areas there is a greater risk, and the construction defects only compound this.

“It is not only financial risk but also the newly emerging construction risk.

“Finally, the potential re-introduction of credit restrictions by the regulator would likely have a material impact on investors, generally are the majority of new apartment buyers in those areas, and further increases the potential risk of low demand and underperformance of these investments.

“The major objective of investors is to build equity and in the current market conditions the most effective way to do so is to simply invest in existing properties that are suitable for families in high-demand areas,” he concluded.
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Gosford is the biggest property dangerzone of 2020: RiskWise

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Most talking heads, when asked to predict the coming year in real estate, look at the recent past and extrapolate that to the near future. So most commentators have been predicting the recent past. And therefore 2020 is all about Sydney and Melbourne.
More thoughtful forecasters have suggested the growth spurt in the biggest cities in late 2019 will not translate into another price boom in 2020. Some, including Westpac, expect relatively moderate growth in Melbourne and Sydney, with Brisbane leading on price escalation.
Very few ever discuss regional markets – which is unfortunate, because that’s where investors will find some of the best options for 2020, if it occurs to them to look beyond the big cities.
In NSW, I would suggest the best possibilities will be found outside of Sydney. And those who undertake research beyond absorbing headlines and sound bites will be surprised to find the best performers recently have been regional.
When Sydney was going through its post-boom correction in 2018 and the first half of 2019, regional areas of NSW were a notable contrast. Locations throughout the state continued to show growth in sales activity and prices.
The regions outside of Sydney have many examples of win-win-win situation provided by regional centres: affordable buy-in prices, much better rental yields than the big cities and good prospects for steady growth.
Many of these have long-term growth rates (the average annual increase in median house prices over 10 years) of 6% , 7% or more.
Regional centres with those kinds of strong long-term growth rates include Orange, Dubbo, Goulburn, Bowral, Mitttagong, Wyong, Terrigal and many others.
Goulburn near Canberra and Wyong on the Central Coast both have long-term capital growth rates of 7% per year while Bowral in the Southern Highlands averages close to 8% per year, which is competitive with anywhere in Australia.
Many locations throughout Regional NSW have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices over the past 12 months.
These growth markets are spread widely across the state. Kingscliff in the north near the Queensland border, has risen 12% in the past year and now has a median house price above $1 million. Nearby Tweed Heads has grown its median house price 11% to $790,000.
In the far south of the state, Lake Albert (which is part of the Wagga Wagga market) has risen 13% to $400,000. Another sector of the Wagga market, Tatton, has grown 14% to $556,000, while central Wagga Wagga increased 9%.
Suffolk Park, which is part of the high-profile Byron Bay market, has increased 12% to reach $1.17 million.
Jindabyne in the Snowy River region has delivered a 14% rise in its median house price to reach $715,000, while Gulgong in the Mid Western Region is up 14% to $330,000. Gloucester in the Mid Coast region has increased 17% to $315,000.
Other locations in Regional NSW to record annual growth in the 7% to 10% range include Bathurst, Broken Hill, Cooma, Cootamundra, Cowra, Griffith, Maclean, Merimbula, Mudgee, Singleton, Tumut and Kempsey.
This strong price performance has occurred at a time when the Sydney market has generally been struggling for growth (prior to the revival in prices which occurred in latter part of 2019).
It provides compelling evidence that investors can find good investments with appealing prospects for long-term growth in regional areas.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Look beyond Sydney for NSW real estate in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Canberra is set for its strongest growth market in years, following a recent surge in demand in the housing markets across the national capital.
Our latest analysis of sales activity and prices shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand is the highest in the five years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys.
Our two previous reports both found 18 suburbs with rising demand, but this new survey has identified 32 growth suburbs. The previous best was the 26 growth suburbs in the Autumn 2019 survey.
Our research also reveals good price performance, with two-thirds of Canberra suburbs delivering growth in their median house prices in the past 12months. Of the 41 Canberra suburbs with growing house prices, 24 have increased more than 5% in annual terms.
This reinforces a point I regularly make: that the generalised price data published in mainstream media (one figure to describe an entire city market) often fails to tell the full story. In the case of Canberra, most suburbs are achieving price growth well above the generalised figures quoted by research firms (mostly 3-4% for Canberra in the past year).
The overall outcome is a departure from the usual status of the national capital’s real estate market, which is one of steady, consistent performance. The surge in the number of locations where sales activity is rising suggests 2020 will be a year of above-average price performance.
Canberra’s property market continues to be underpinned by a strong ACT economy. The ACT ranked fourth among the states and territories in the State of the States report published by CommSec in January 2020, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia – and was ranked No.1 on housing finance and employment, and No.2 on equipment investment.
The ACT consistently has the highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment rate in the nation.
Three Canberra precincts stand out for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity: Belconnen (eight growth suburbs), Gungahlin (six) and Tuggeranong (seven). The Inner North precinct also features prominently, with four suburbs with upwardly mobile markets.
With Belconnen, Gungahlin and the Inner North featuring strongly, it reinforces (yet again) that the strongest part of the Canberra market is in the north of the city.
The Belconnen District is a real standout, with eight growth suburbs and 10 others with steady sales performance. Rising markets include Dunlop, Florey, Giralang, Higgins, Holt and Melba.
It also has several of the suburbs where median house prices have grown more than 5% in the past 12 months, including Melba (11%), Macquarie (8%), Macgregor (7%) and Latham (8%).
Leading Gungahlin District suburbs for price growth include Crace (up 10%), while the suburb of Gungahlin is one of the leaders among Canberra’s apartment markets (median unit price up 14%). In the Inner North precinct, the suburb of O’Connor was Canberra’s No.1 suburb for annual price growth (median house price up 20% to $1.26 million).
While many of the top performing precincts are in the northern part of Canberra, the Tuggeranong District in the far south is an emerging market worth tracking.
With seven growth suburbs and seven others with consistent sales activity, it’s close behind the Belconnen District in terms of buyer demand. The rising markets include Banks, Bonython, Conder, Fadden, Kambah, Monash and Theodore.
Numerous suburbs in the Tuggeranong District have had solid price growth in the past 12 months, including Calwell (5%), Chishom (6%), Conder (8%), Fadden (7%), Kambah (7%) and Theodore (7%).
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Canberra real estate set for its strongest growth in years: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A Shakespearean character suggested (Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2), as a great way to improve the country: “First thing we do: let’s kill all the lawyers.”
While the idea has merit in 21st Century Australia, I think a better strategy would be to get rid of all the economists. A good method of dispatch would be to push them off a cliff, similar to the September cliff they’re all predicting as the next catastrophe to afflict Australia’s economy.
If there’s a more pointless and over-rated profession anywhere in society, I don’t know about it. These people continue to get paid, and they continue to feature daily in major media with their incessant “warnings”, despite their staggering ability to be wrong with most of their forecasts.
For many of our chattering economists, the meaning of life is their picture in the paper or a short grab on the evening television news. Some exhibit a need for daily exposure. How best to achieve that? Say something sensationally negative – the truth is optional and you can be sure that no journalist will ever check on your track record of getting things right, so credibility is unimportant. Just describing yourself as an economist is enough.
So when the impacts of Covid-19 first became apparent in February and March, the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists began predicting a collapse in real estate prices.
The people I call “the usual suspects”, the economists and independent ranters who always talk down property, began tipping house prices would fall at least 20% and some suggested even 30% or 40%.
Journalists, being the shallow creatures that they are, lapped it all up and rushed to print with sensationally negative headlines, without applying any scrutiny to the forecasters and their motives.
Four months later, some of those forecasters are retracting their earlier predictions. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, always eager to be a real estate pessimist, recently recanted his 20% decline tip and suggested a more moderate outcome.
The boffins at UBS, who seldom see anything positive in real estate, recently admitted they’d got in wrong and that housing markets were holding up a lot better than they thought.
The latest data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research indicates that most of the markets across Australia still have house prices higher than they were at the start of 2020, in defiance of those dire forecasts.
But now the diehard doomsdayers have found a new catastrophe to obsess over: the September cliff.
The theory is that come the end of September, the banks and the federal government will flick a switch and stop supporting Australia.
The trigger here is that JobKeeper is scheduled to run until then and the banks have put a similar deadline on their extension of mortgage payment holidays to borrowers. So, when the government and banks suddenly stop caring about the nation, and themselves, and switch off their support, everything will fall off a cliff. Theoretically.
It’s a convenient scenario for pessimistic economists (is there any other type?) and journalists with a negative mindset (there is definitely no other type).
But there are serious flaws in the theory and I feel confident in suggesting that is simply won’t happen. There will be no cliff for prices to fall off at the end of September.
Here’s what’s wrong with the “September cliff” theory:-
· It assumes that everything depends on JobKeeper and mortgage holidays. It doesn’t – there’s a whole lot more in the mix.
· It assumes the Federal Government will suddenly stop caring about the national economy and simply switch off support in September. They won’t.
· It assumes banks will shoot themselves in the foot by abandoning their customers. They haven’t come this far in supporting their borrower customers to abandon them later.
· It assumes that nothing will change with business and employment between now and 30 September. But a lot is changing already, with restrictions easing, businesses re-opening and jobs re-appearing.
· It overlooks the extraordinary level of stimulus measures in play. Multiple booster measures from all levels of government have been activated and there is more to come. A $72 billion spend on infrastructure provides a prime example of the measures that will generate economic activity and jobs. The $25,000 grant for people to build homes is generating activity that has surpassed all expectations and the economic multiplier effect of residential construction is the second biggest of any industry sector in Australia.
· It overlooks the impact of the ongoing easing of restrictions. Before we get to the doomsday deadline, state borders will be open (most are already, notwithstanding the Victoria situation) and tourism will be pumping again. Australia are revelling in the new freedoms and this will help revive economies. The latest ABS data shows that retail spending is rising again, with a 17% increase in May.
· It overlooks the news that people who sought mortgage holidays are rapidly moving back to making mortgage payments. ANZ said in mid-June that a third of the customers who sought a holiday are already back making payments. The numbers of borrowers resuming payments is growing every week.
· It ignores the extraordinary resilience of real estate markets, which have a history of not only resisting economic downturns but leading national economic recovery. Real estate markets revel in defying the most dire forecasts of the chattering economists.
· It forgets the natural boost to real estate markets from the Spring selling season.
The “September cliff” theory will be forgotten even before we get to September. The people who made those forecasts will have forgotten they made them. For most of the talking heads, it’s nothing more than a soundbite, a publicity opportunity. Some of them don’t even believe their public statements.
It will join an already-long list of predictions that have been proven false since February. Every statistic that has been published to date – whether it be property prices, auction clearances rates, vacancy rates, retail spending, unemployment figures and GDP numbers – has been less dramatic than the media forecasts.
It’s time we stopped listening to the attention-seeking economists whose only objective is to gain media profile by feeding the 24-hour news cycle, with little regard to the consequences.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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The 'September Cliff' is just the latest property economic nonsense: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The key message for property investors right now is that there are many growth markets across Australia.
There’s a tendency in mainstream media to extrapolate the situations in Sydney and Melbourne to the whole nation. If the big cities are in decline, then Australian real estate is in decline, according to news media.
This is seldom true – and it’s certainly not the case right now. Some of our smaller capital cities are pumping strongly and, in particular, regional Australia has many growth markets.
Last week I made this comment: “Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.”
I wrote that I rated the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and that it continues to produce solid results in its property markets.
The anecdotal evidence from people at the coalface of the Sunshine Coast property industry is that sales are happening, vacancies remain low and there’s no evidence of values falling.
The latest data on prices and vacancy rates confirms that – with evidence of notable growth pockets.
Most of the postcodes across the Sunshine Coast region, including Noosa (which is a separate local government area), have vacancy rates between 1% and 2%. While some of the capital city CBDs and tourism-dominated locations like Surfers Paradise have had big blowouts in their vacancies, the Sunshine Coast has resisted this trend.
Although tourism is an important industry to the Sunshine Coast, its economy is insulated by the ongoing massive spend on infrastructure, including the evolving medical precinct, the new CBD now under construction, the billion-dollar highway improvements, the upgrade of the local airport to international status and the subsea internet cable link to Asia – among other projects.
And this is bolstering the local property market.
The top end of the market in particular has been boosted, thanks in part of the influx of well-paid medical specialists working in the new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion university hospital.
The two most expensive suburbs in the region, Sunshine Beach and Minyama, have both experienced notable uplift in prices recently. The median house price for Sunshine Beach, just outside Noosa, has risen 16% in the latest quarter and 27% in annual terms, to reach $1.8 million. Minyama is up 7% in the most recent quarter and 23% annually – and typical houses are now above $1.1 million.
The median house price for Noosa Heads has risen 8% in the past year, including 1.4% in the most recent quarter.
Other locations throughout the Sunshine Coast region, including Mooloolaba, Maroochydore, Coolum and Pelican Waters, have recorded more moderate growth, but nevertheless have achieved price uplift in both the past 12 months and the most recent quarter – and a time when the big cities are feeling the negative impacts of Covid-19.
Keep that in mind the next time you hear one of our chattering economists telling us that “Australian property prices” are falling.
The Sunshine Coast is a standout example among many thriving regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Sunshine Coast remains a standout market during COVID-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who has been paying attention will know that there are plenty of solid to strong property markets around Australia.
The collapse in prices that attention-seeking economists forecast in March and regularly since then simply hasn’t happened. Of the 15 major market jurisdictions in Australia (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), 11 have house prices higher than at the start of the year.
First-home buyers, boosted by government assistance, are very busy and other types of owner-occupiers are active also. Investors are starting to get off the fence and follow the trends that are pointing to growth in key areas.
So where are those prime targets, which currently have the ingredients for growth? I recently explored that subject with buyers’ agent Philip Robison as a guest on his podcast series. Under the topic heading of “Game-changing trends supercharging markets,” we discussed the key trends currently driving markets:
1. The cities with the virus under control have higher confidence, more activity, lower vacancies and busier markets.
2. The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, well under way before the pandemic, has been exacerbated by the virus shutdown periods.
3. First-home buyers are the most active cohort in the market at present, driven by high levels of govt assistance and low interest rates.
4. Vacancies are very low in many markets, which means rising rents - and history shows that prices tend to follow.
So which locations are positively impacted by these key trends?
1. Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra and Hobart all have few pandemic issues and they have busy property markets. Adelaide has one of the most competitive markets in the nation, Perth has been a huge increase in sales activity in recent months, Brisbane markets are rising steadily and Canberra is a standout because it has delivered price growth every month since March.
2. The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is mostly about regional Australia: the rising jurisdictions include regional Victoria near Melbourne, Regional NSW near Sydney and Regional Qld near Brisbane. Brisbane itself is also getting momentum from the Exodus trend, particularly from people vacating Sydney and looking for a city less congested and more affordable.
3. First-home buyers are busy in the outer-ring suburbs of most capital cities, but particularly in places like Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. They’re also targeting regional cities and towns, especially those within striking distance of the big cities - so Regional Victoria near Melbourne, Regional NSW near Sydney, Regional Qld near Brisbane.
4. Vacancies are particularly low in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra and Hobart, and in most key regional markets across Australia. It’s not uncommon to find locations where vacancies are below 1%. Agencies across the country are crying out for rental listings.
So, where does that point us? Well, some locations are being boosted by all of those four trends.
Therefore, the locations benefiting most from all of these dominant trends are ...
<ul>
<li>Adelaide,</li>
<li>Brisbane,</li>
<li>Regional Victoria near Melbourne,</li>
<li>Regional NSW near Sydney,</li>
<li>Regional Qld near Brisbane.</li>
</ul>
They’re not the only markets that are pumping strongly, but they are the standouts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Property Forecast 2020

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