Housing bubble predictions simply silly, given growing population
Visiting US economist Harry Dent is the latest in a long line of doomsayers that predict Australia’s housing market is a bubble on the verge of popping, although the fact that the purpose of his visit is to promote his latest book should not be forgotten.
Regardless, natural population increase and net overseas migration continue to place pressure on the undersupplied housing market, and new housing starts are failing to keep pace.
While it is true that buyers are sitting on the sidelines, already the signs that spring could see an increase in transactional activity are emerging. Clearance rates in the past few weeks are encouraging and the number of listings is increasing, indicating vendors are adopting a more realistic approach and have the confidence to proceed with a sale.
Furthermore, investors remain wary of the share market in these volatile times and are therefore again looking at real estate as offering greater security, buoying demand.
Undoubtedly we have seen a flattening in house prices in recent times, but this is a natural and necessary part of the cycle. The fact remains that the level of supply is incapable of meeting demand at the moment, and until government intervention to remove red tape and provide incentives for developers to commence projects occurs, predictions of a housing bubble are quite simply silly.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures indicate housing starts dropped 7% last financial year. Dwelling starts fell 4.7% in the June 2011 quarter and, according to the Housing Industry Association, the 151,000 homes being started annually is substantially short of demand, which currently stands at about 175,000.
Concurrently, in 2010 Australia’s population grew by 1.5%, with every state and territory experiencing positive population growth, according to the ABS.
When you consider the rate of population growth in Australia, the increasing shortfall in housing supply will continue to insulate prices. It is not a bubble the residential property market needs to be worried about, but rather the lack of new supply and the barriers surrounding affordability.
Still the message is not getting through to some with vested interests elsewhere. An example is Dent’s theory that baby boomers are preparing for retirement en masse, and as such are curbing their spending habits having already purchased their homes, which could lead to an “economic tsunami” across global markets.
The retirement of the baby boomers could in fact have a positive impact on the market, particularly those markets with stock suitable for downsizers and sea-changers.
There is the potential for increased demand for smaller dwellings in newer communities, which could in turn increase availability of larger homes in established suburbs for families looking to upgrade.
The baby boomer generation’s move toward retirement will of course impact the real estate market, but those spruiking a bubble need only consider the fundamentals to realise the underlying strength of Australia’s housing market.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of Laing + Simmons
For more expert commentary about the spring property market and tips for buying and selling in spring, see our spring e-book 16 spring selling secrets plus 8 tips for buyers
