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While the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold is good news for buyers, any suggestion that it’s strictly a buyer’s market are wide of the mark.
Demand from buyers is strong and should remain resilient throughout the winter months, so properties that do come to market can be expected to be the subject of strong competition.
The continuing low interest rate environment is obviously good news for buyers, but the opportunities for vendors shouldn’t be discounted.
From an agents’ perspective there is a dearth of stock coming to market and those properties that are available are capturing broad interest. Where realistic price points are adopted, vendors are reaping the rewards.
The decision to leave interest rates on hold after last month’s cut, which was perhaps surprisingly embraced by the major lenders, maintains the attractive fundamentals for the vendor’s side of the equation as well as the buyer’s.
Vendors weighing up a sale should consider moving into action sooner rather than later. Listing a property before the spring selling period comes along means it will be subject to less competition.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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Steady cash rate is good news for both buyers and vendors: Leanne Pilkington

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While most agree with the RBA's decision to leave interest rates on hold in April, talk in some circles of the next rate movement being upward fails to account for the fact that consumers are still not spending.
A quick glance into retailers’ windows tells an interesting story.
Ever since interest rates began a downward movement in the cycle, there has been speculation as to when they may begin rising again.
Some economists are even suggesting the next movement may even be up. But on the ground, the case for a near-term increase in rates is unfounded. Retailers are still doing it tough and there is heavy discounting occurring across the retail sector.
Some retailers are discounting winter stock before the winter selling season has even begun.
In terms of positive sentiment among consumers, retail is the obvious barometer and from the perspective of most retailers, any supposed increase in sentiment is yet to flow through to sales.
From a housing perspective, transactional activity is ticking along with encouraging, if unspectacular, results occurring.
However, any recovery in the market to date can only be described as slight, and gentle fiscal policy is required if any recovery is to be maintained.
The market is heading into the traditionally more subdued winter selling period and as such we believe the next movement in rates should be downward to support the market during this time.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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The next rate move should be downward: Leanne Pilkington

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The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the official cash rate by a further 25 basis points is welcome news, but the housing market remains in need of a more coordinated approach to reach a full recovery.
As ever, the willingness of the banks to take a fair and reasonable course of action and pass the rate cut on in full is crucial to the impact of the RBA’s decision.
Recent cuts to the official cash rate have not had the desired impact, and while activity has picked up with the commencement of the spring selling period, there is substantial improvement still to be realised for the sector to be deemed healthy again.
Government obviously recognises the important role the housing market plays in an economic context, evidenced by the slate of property-related taxes it relies upon.
It therefore seems reasonable that a more coordinated approach between all levels of government and the residential sector should be pursued to improve the health of the sector.
A reconsideration of stamp duty is the most obvious place to start.
Considerable evidence already exists to support the idea that government stands to gain substantially increased revenue associated with increased transactional levels should stamp duty be abolished.
To suggest this tax is too important a source of revenue is erroneous and obsolete.
Another area requiring a commitment from government is an improvement to the planning and development approval process.
For too long incentive programs have been focused on the buyer side of the equation. Perhaps a more serious focus on addressing developer concerns, such as levies and the speed of the approval process, would enable the RBA’S interest rate cuts to have a more measurable and significant impact.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/" target="_blank"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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Passing the rate cut on in full is crucial

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As the housing market emerges from the traditionally quieter winter period and with dwelling prices generally flat at present, the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged  was the right move.
Despite figures from Deloitte this week perhaps surprisingly showing better than expected retail sales for the first half of the year, there is little doubt that a steady interest rate environment is essential for the ongoing health of the economy in general and the housing market specifically.
There is still a degree of caution among consumers, and sentiment remains subdued in most discretionary categories.
This caution extends to the housing market, and as such the decision to leave rates unchanged is an important platform for confidence to improve going forward.
Having said this, it is encouraging to see activity appearing to improve with the onset of spring. Traditionally the strongest selling period of the year, this spring takes on extra importance given the subdued transactional activity in the year to date.
The good news is clearance rates in the Sydney market have improved in recent weeks, and genuine buyers are emerging with a greater determination to secure their desired property.
Vendors who have waited for spring to go to market can expect well presented, realistically priced properties to be the subject of stiff competition.
The more affordable markets are attracting substantial interest from owner-occupiers as well as investors seeking to capitalise on the low interest rate environment, while the prestige market appears to have stabilised in recent times.
Current market conditions appeal to a broad range of buyers.
Despite the banks continuing to apply tight lending criteria, for those with the financial capacity the current market presents some compelling opportunities.
Investors are increasingly recognising the positive fundamentals, while first-home buyers’ incentives are still applicable for certain properties. In particular, those looking to upgrade have a significant opportunity to capitalise on the closing price differential between the middle and top-end markets, with prestige prices stabilising.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/" title="Laing + Simmons" target="_blank"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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The RBA's decision to leave rates on hold will improve housing market confidence

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A co-ordinated approach from government at all levels is necessary to support the housing market and the broader economy, and the need to invest in infrastructure is a critical component of this.
 
While the global economic picture dictates the need for a conservative budget, spending cuts that aren’t accompanied by a forward-thinking plan will serve only to postpone, and possibly cause further damage, to an already flat housing market. 
It’s not just the obvious sectors like real estate agents and tradespeople that are being negatively affected by such an approach. A strong residential property sector has considerable reach down the supply chain and a commitment to delivering new infrastructure is one way to influence confidence and improve activity in the housing market, which has an important flow-on effect. 
The federal government’s decision to abandon its support of the north-west rail link, despite its capacity to provide funding, is particularly disappointing given current economic conditions. 
A co-ordinated approach involving the delivery of appropriate infrastructure, encouraging developers in the current business environment and supporting affordability is required if the housing market is to emerge from a stagnant state. 
Ignoring the infrastructure component represents a missed opportunity for the housing market and the health of the broader economy as well.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a target="_blank" title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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Government must co-ordinate at all levels to invest in infrastructure and support the housing market

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The housing market has been flat for quite some time and was in dire need of an injection. Therefore this interest rate cut is positive news on the surface. 
The way that government and regulatory bodies have allowed the market to slide to its current stagnate state can only be described as neglectful. Hopefully, today’s decision represents recognition that buyers, mortgage holders and the many industries down the supply chain that rely on a strong housing market are all in need of support. 
The RBA’s decision to lower rates, a decision traditionally well received by mortgagees, can no longer be relied upon to provide relief. 
Since the major banks have clearly demonstrated their unwillingness to be guided by the Reserve Bank, mortgage holders can be forgiven for wondering what all the fuss is about. 
Should any bank fail to pass on the rate cut in full, and choose to face the public backlash instead, it would represent a direct snub to mortgagees, particularly those in the mortgage belt suburbs. 
It would also again call into question the effectiveness and relevance of the Reserve Bank.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/" title="Laing + Simmons" target="_blank"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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RBA rate cut good news on the surface, but can’t be relied on to provide relief: Leanne Pilkington

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While yesterday’s Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates will have come as a surprise for some, I have always said the next cash rate movement was always going to be down – it was just a question of when.
More important than the 25-basis-point reduction is the fact that rates have declined for two consecutive months now, confirming they are trending in a downward direction. This trend is paramount to buyer confidence and is another factor supporting what is already a buyers’ market.
While European economic woes continue to loom overhead, those with secure employment on the lookout for property will rarely experience an environment as attractive for buying as the current market.
Prices are stable, and vendors are necessarily being more realistic when it comes to price. The emergence of a downward interest rate trend will have further positive bearing on affordability.
Of course the official cash rate is one influence, and much will depend on whether the banks, which admittedly have seen their own costs of borrowing increase, pass on the rate cut to their customers.
In the context of global uncertainty, as the impacts of the European debt crisis filter through to the domestic market, this decision should be welcomed as a safeguarding measure.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a target="_blank" title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/"> Laing + Simmons</a>
 
 
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Rate cut will improve housing affordability

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The declining interest rate environment is combining with other factors including a lack of new development and rising rents to create an interesting trend in the real estate market: the clock is being wound back 10 years. 
There are signs of a repeat of the conditions experienced in the early 2000s, when lower interest rates stimulated the real estate market.
 
In recent years interest rates have moved in an upward direction before remaining steady for the past 12 months. A higher interest rate environment, while keeping inflation under control, adversely impacts the economy and this is where the market has found itself. 
But the Reserve Bank decision to lower the official cash rate could represent a crucial shift in outlook for the economy as a whole and the real estate market specifically. 
Ten years ago lower interest rates stimulated the property market, and we find ourselves facing similar fundamentals now. Values have shown recent declines but should stabilise in time, creating a soft market that presents attractive opportunities for first homebuyers, upgraders as well as investors to become active again. 
A compelling argument could be made for 2012 being the best year in the past decade to buy residential property. 
Laing+Simmons forecasts interest rates to decline by up to 1% by mid-2012, which should translate to an increase in consumer spending and stabilisation of property values. 
At a broader economic level, higher interest rates in recent times have had the effect of reducing consumer spending as people turned their focus to increasing their savings and reducing their household debt. 
Should a declining rate trend materialise we expect to see consumer spending increase and property values stabilise, particularly for lower priced properties close to the city. 
Property prices, which have been flat or declined over the last four to six months, should again show growth in the medium term as a number of influences converge. 
The long-term low supply scenario in Sydney, driven by a significant period of inactivity stemming from a continued lack of finance for developments, should ensure residential rents keep rising. 
Additionally, with the latest REINSW figures showing rental vacancy in Sydney is just 1.5%, the fundamentals for investors remain strong. 
For developers, the reduced availability of credit could necessitate substantial pre-sales be achieved to secure finance, compounding the contracted supply situation. These constraints should see values resume an upward trend over the medium term as population growth continues unabated and demand further outweighs supply. 
More immediately however, we can expect values to stabilise. There will be pockets where values will rise comparatively quickly, particularly in lower priced new residential developments close to the city, again driven by the lack of supply of properties at lower price points in good locations. 
Declining interest rates, stabilising values, lack of new supply, rising rents and a low vacancy rate are converging to create a most attractive environment for property purchases – a scenario the market has not experienced for 10 years.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a target="_blank" title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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Next year could be the best year in a decade to buy property

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For years governments have been lining their pockets at the expense of the housing market, and home buyers especially, to create the situation we have today. Affordability is at crisis point and the undersupply of housing cannot possibly meet the market’s needs.
The latest research highlights the absurdity of the taxation burden, particularly stamp duty, that the housing market in this country is faced with.
The<a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/tax/hia-demands-tax-relief-for-new-housing-ahead-of-tax-summit/2011092951734"> CIE’s Taxation of the Housing Sector research report </a>makes numerous alarming findings, including:
<ul>
<li> In absolute terms, housing is the second largest contributor of tax to Australian governments;</li>
<li> New housing accounts for around 1.2% of value added in the economy but contributes 2.8% of government taxation revenues;</li>
<li> Most of the burden or incidence of taxation on housing falls on home buyers;</li>
<li> The most inefficient tax is levied at a state level, namely stamp duty; and</li>
<li> Due to the inefficiency of stamp duties, a mere $500 million cut to this tax would create a $738 million benefit to consumers and up to a $51 million benefit to producers.</li>
</ul>
The research was commissioned by the Housing Industry Association ahead of next week’s federal government tax forum.
Next week’s forum provides a perfect opportunity for reform at the federal level to recognise the disproportionate burden the housing market is being forced to carry and support an industry that is so vital from an economic and social perspective..
Stamp duty is the single greatest hurdle to affordability, and as this latest research identifies, is highly inefficient. This unfair tax is preventing the residential market and the economy as a whole from benefiting from a range of positive impacts and its abolition cannot come soon enough.
Developers occupy a vital position in the market but the sentiment at present is that there is little to be gained by proceeding with new projects. Excessive red tape and associated costs of development is not reflected in the margins achievable and so we are left at a standstill.
The massive housing undersupply and consequential affordability crisis has the market at a tipping point. A multi-pronged approach to reform that seeks to encourage new supply and support affordability is necessary from governments at all levels.
Let us hope the tax forum recognises and responds to this crisis before the great Australian dream fades to become merely a pipedream for many people.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a target="_blank" title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/"> Laing + Simmons</a>
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Reduce burden of tax on housing before great Australian dream becomes a pipedream

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<a target="_blank" title="When Harry met Steve" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/economy/when-harry-met-steve-a-bears-breakfast/2011091551566?source=flicker3">Visiting US economist Harry Dent</a> is the latest in a long line of doomsayers that predict Australia’s housing market is a bubble on the verge of popping, although the fact that the purpose of his visit is to promote his latest book should not be forgotten.
Regardless, natural population increase and net overseas migration continue to place pressure on the undersupplied housing market, and new housing starts are failing to keep pace.
While it is true that buyers are sitting on the sidelines, already the signs that spring could see an increase in transactional activity are emerging. Clearance rates in the past few weeks are encouraging and the number of listings is increasing, indicating vendors are adopting a more realistic approach and have the confidence to proceed with a sale.
Furthermore, investors remain wary of the share market in these volatile times and are therefore again looking at real estate as offering greater security, buoying demand.
Undoubtedly we have seen a flattening in house prices in recent times, but this is a natural and necessary part of the cycle. The fact remains that the level of supply is incapable of meeting demand at the moment, and until government intervention to remove red tape and provide incentives for developers to commence projects occurs, predictions of a housing bubble are quite simply silly.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures indicate<a target="_blank" title="Housing starts" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/housing-industry-asks-for-government-intervention-as-housing-starts-slide/2011091551564"> housing starts dropped 7% last financial year</a>. Dwelling starts fell 4.7% in the June 2011 quarter and, according to the Housing Industry Association, the 151,000 homes being started annually is substantially short of demand, which currently stands at about 175,000.
Concurrently, in 2010 Australia’s population grew by 1.5%, with every state and territory experiencing positive population growth, according to the ABS.
When you consider the rate of population growth in Australia, the increasing shortfall in housing supply will continue to insulate prices. It is not a bubble the residential property market needs to be worried about, but rather the lack of new supply and the barriers surrounding affordability.
Still the message is not getting through to some with vested interests elsewhere. An example is Dent’s theory that baby boomers are preparing for retirement en masse, and as such are curbing their spending habits having already purchased their homes, which could lead to an “economic tsunami” across global markets.
The retirement of the baby boomers could in fact have a positive impact on the market, particularly those markets with stock suitable for downsizers and sea-changers.
There is the potential for increased demand for smaller dwellings in newer communities, which could in turn increase availability of larger homes in established suburbs for families looking to upgrade.
The baby boomer generation’s move toward retirement will of course impact the real estate market, but those spruiking a bubble need only consider the fundamentals to realise the underlying strength of Australia’s housing market.
Leanne Pilkington is general manager of<a target="_blank" title="Laing + Simmons" href="https://www.laingsimmons.com.au/"> Laing + Simmons</a>
For more expert commentary about the spring property market and tips for buying and selling in spring, see our spring e-book <a href="https://register.propertyobserver.com.au/16-spring-selling-secrets/" target="_blank">16 spring selling secrets plus 8 tips for buyers</a>
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Leanne Pilkington

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