As the property begins to move, some buyers could miss out if their price expectations stay too low
I am often staggered by the property bubble debate and how many believe the answer is black or white, we either definitely do or definitely don’t have one. The debate is a futile exercise, however, as it fails to recognise there are different sub-markets at play at any one time. Those who are arguing a bubble exists are just as correct as those who think there is no bubble. Often they are looking at different indicators that provide a different perspective of a completely different area of the market.
For example, for many years now we have had drummed into us by international economists that there must be a property bubble in Australia because the median price of property is a such and such multiple of the average wage. This is an extremely general statement and while technically true in an economist’s hands, virtually irrelevant to a person who earns five or 10 times the average. It is even less relevant to a home owner who bought a house back in the 1980s and only owes $12,768.
Now we are starting to hear the argument that because auction clearance rates are on the up this is a clear sign of no bubble. But there is a massive hole in this point because according to the REIV 70% to 80% of property is not sold at auction in Victoria, and the percentage of property sold by private treaty is even higher in other states.
However, clearance rates are a good indicator of a very small sector of the market where auctions are prevalent, and they do give great insight into where the market will find its feet first.
Confidence returns to the safe and more established markets first. These are markets that tend to have low levels of debt and lots of equity. For example, property that was purchased more than 20 years ago has quadrupled in value. A property purchased for $200,000 is now worth $800,000. Even if the owner did not pay off a single dollar of debt he or she would have $600,000 worth of equity. It is this equity that allows confidence to bloom earlier than the rest of the market.
However, even in these areas the property market has come off by around 5% to 10% over the last couple of years. As confidence returns I expect this slack will be taken up very quickly, and some punters may get caught off guard and end up chasing the market.
This is because most people value property based on what they think it is worth, but the value of property in auction markets is determined purely by what the market is prepared to pay.
To get a clear understanding of the market it is not only essential to know what similar properties in a particular area have been selling for but also how many underbidders there were and at what level they stopped competing. The buyers who missed out on the last property will be your competitors for the next one, and they will be the ones who drive price growth.
Let's take a look at an example of an investor or home buyer who finds the perfect property. She bases the value on what she thinks is a fair price in the current market. The property is due to be auctioned and she decides on an upper limit prior to the auction, in this case $600,000. As the auction progresses she soon realises there are others who are prepared to pay more, and the property sells for $610,000.
A couple of months go by before our buyer finds another comparable property. She reasons that because the last one sold for $610,000, this one is worth the same. However, she fails to understand this sale is now a couple of months old and the market has moved on. Once again she fails to secure the property, as this time it sells for $620,000.
These buyers are now falling into the trap of chasing the market. They are basing their purchase price limits on what happened in the past, and in a growing market they will continually miss out.
While it is never a good idea to overpay for property, as the market begins to move if you are always a step behind the market you could end up paying a lot more or worse still, miss the boat altogether.
Mark Armstrong is a director of iProperty Plan, which provides independent analysis and tailored advice to investors and home buyers.
