Double-digit annual growth seen in Perth pockets
I’ve been tipping recovery in the Perth market in the past six months and now we are seeing the first signs of a return to price growth in some sectors.
Several research sources still have the Perth market overall in slightly negative territory in terms of price movements, but my latest analysis for the Price Predictor Index shows that there is price growth in the upper end of the Perth market.
When city markets are at the early phase of a growth cycle, the upmarket suburbs are often the first to show growth (and it ripples out later to the middle market and then to the cheaper areas).
That’s what happened in recent years in firstly Sydney and later in Melbourne.
Now the latest price data is showing the beginnings of something meaningful in Perth, which has numerous suburbs with median house prices above $1 million.
That top end market has seen growth in their median prices in the past three months and in annual terms also.
This trend is widespread across the Perth prestige market. Suburbs with rising prices include Nedlands, Claremont, Applecross, Shelley, Cottesloe, Dalkeith, Mosman Park, Trigg and Floreat.
All have median house prices above $1 million, while Dalkeith and Cottesloe are both above $2 million.
The latest price growth data from CoreLogic finds double-digit annual growth in median prices in most of those suburbs.
In fact, the median price growth data has Cottesloe, Daglish, Dalkeith and Shelley all growing more than 20 percent in the past year, with a big chunk of that growth occurring in the most recent quarter.
This is a little misleading because it doesn’t mean property values are growing to that degree. It’s simply a product of the vagaries of median prices, which can be particularly volatile in those top-end markets where a few big-ticket sales than skew the data.
But valuers and buyers agents I spoke to during a visit to Perth last week confirmed that values are up 10 percent (ish) in many of the million-dollar suburbs.
Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the state’s economy, especially in the mining sector, and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.
According to the WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry biannual review, the WA economy is rebounding, will grow this year and should start delivering a better jobs market and higher wages.
The report is supported by separate research by the ANZ that suggests the WA economy is back among the fastest-growing in the country. CCI chief economist Rick Newnham says the slowdown in the state - that previously hit the jobs market, property prices and confidence - has come to an end.
The drop in business investment from the peak of the resources boom has also run its course. One symptom is that spending on gold exploration in WA climbed to its highest level on record in 2017.
We’re now seeing evidence of those stronger economic prospects playing out in improvements in the Perth property market, notably in the top end suburbs.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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