Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

Our research for the upcoming Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index shows that Regional Queensland has set another record, with 171 locations with rising sales activity and 96% of all locations achieving price growth in the past year.

The total of 171 rising markets is the highest recorded in the six years of these quarterly surveys. From 2015 to 2020, the average number of rising markets in our surveys of Regional Queensland was 49. The three surveys in 2021 have recorded 157, 146 and 171 rising markets.

The latest increase in the number of upwardly mobile markets comes despite a further softening in the Sunshine Coast market. The Sunshine Coast Region and Noosa Shire combined still have 19 rising markets, but this compares with 25 three months ago and 37 six months ago. This distinct pattern of a softening market comes after three very strong years in this market, and prices are still rising.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89721 project_image_fid=172109]

Elsewhere in Regional Queensland, it&rsquo;s very much a story of growth. The Gold Coast, Cairns, Bundaberg, Gladstone, Mackay, Rockhampton, Toowoomba and Townsville have all increased the number of suburbs with rising sales volumes.

The Gold Coast is the most prolific municipality in the nation: 37 of the 49 Gold Coast City suburbs ranked in this report have rising trajectories with sales activity. This is an incredibly strong market, thriving on the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and going to another level every time Sydney and Melbourne experience lockdowns. Southport is a particularly prolific market: quarterly sales have been 197 288 382 496 505.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106840 project_image_fid=172253]

The other standout market is Toowoomba, where 14 of the 17 suburbs ranked in this report are categorised as growth markets.

In the Far North of the state, both Cairns and Townsville have buoyant markets. Cairns has 16 suburbs with rising sales activity and Townsville has 11. In Palm Cove in Cairns, quarterly sales activity has been 25 54 69 78 92.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=101206 project_image_fid=162024]

In Central Queensland, nine of the 10 Rockhampton suburbs in this report are rising, while 10 of the 14 Mackay suburbs have increasing sales activity. In Yeppoon, quarterly sales have been 41 73 99 107

Gladstone is continuing its revival after a long slump: 8 out of 12 suburbs now have rising sales activity and there is growing evidence of price recovery.

Bundaberg continues to emerge as a growth city, with 8 out of 11 suburbs delivering rising sales activity.

There is also rising momentum in the Whitsundays market.

PRICES: The Sunshine Coast region is the undoubted star of price growth performance in Regional Queensland, although the Gold Coast is also challenging.

Across Queensland, 96% of locations have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. Almost 60% of locations have risen more than 10%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=171653]

Unit markets have also done well, with 85% of locations recording annual rises in their median unit prices.

Across the region covered by the Sunshine Coast and Noosa councils, there are 33 suburbs and towns where the median house price has increased by at least 12% in the past year.

Sunrise Beach is up 37% to $1.2 million, while Minyama has risen 29% to $1.5 million. Markets which have increased 20-22% include Coolum Beach ($850,000), Wurtulla ($745,000), Woombye ($635,000), Twin Waters ($970,000), Maleny ($750,000), Mt Coolum ($760,000), Mudjimba ($920,000) and Noosaville ($1.35 million).

The Gold Coast has 26 suburbs with annual growth in house prices above 12%, led by Currumbin (up 24% to $1.18 million) and Bundall (22% to $1.27 million). Tallai, Tugun, Coomera, Labrador and Miami have all lifted 18-19% in the past year.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=21132 project_image_fid=33504]

The Hervey Bay market is lifting, headed by the 25% rise in Pialba ($400,000), while six other suburbs have increased more than 12%.

Mackay has several growing suburbs, led by 30% in Sarina ($375,000) and 25% in East Mackay ($425,000). Gladstone&rsquo;s recovery continues, with double-digit median price growth in six of its suburbs.

In Far North Queensland, Cairns has multiple growth locations, including Palm Cove (up 30% to $770,000), Caravonica (30% to $500,000) and Port Douglas (27% to $750,000). The revival in Townsville is being led by the 30% rise in North Ward ($735,000).

Unit markets have also done well, with 85% of locations recording annual rises in their median unit prices

terryryder

The rise and rise of Regional Queensland property markets continue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

Multiple factors are driving our real estate markets but it can all be distilled down to this: we have shortages of everything.

Why are prices rising? Because there&rsquo;s a shortage of listings, relative to buyer demand.

Why are rents rising? Because there&rsquo;s a chronic shortage of rental properties.

Why are building costs rising? Because there&rsquo;s a shortage of everything and everybody involved in the creation of new dwellings.

Who&rsquo;s responsible for these situations? The politicians and bureaucrats who love to tinker at the edges of our property markets but never think beyond the press conference.

These shortages and their consequences create serious issues for Australians and they warrant urgent action. But there&rsquo;s no evidence that the politicians are even aware there&rsquo;s a problem.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5328 project_image_fid=155359]

They&rsquo;re all obsessed with the pandemic and haven&rsquo;t noticed the multitude of tenants who can&rsquo;t find a rental property at any price or the prospective owners of a newly-built home who can&rsquo;t proceed because they can&rsquo;t find an available builder - or the one they have can&rsquo;t get the materials they need.

We have a serious undersupply of rental properties because investors have been discouraged by a series of decisions and policies by politicians and bureaucrats over the past five years.

Investors have been largely sitting on the sidelines and right now there are more investors selling than buying.

The shortage of rental properties is dire. Most postcodes across Australia now have vacancy rates below 1% and many are closer to zero than 1%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559 project_image_fid=88243]

Anyone who makes a rental property available and stages an open house will have queues of applicants and people offering more than the asking rental.

That&rsquo;s why rents are rising. Those who react to the symptoms rather than the causes are calling for controls on rents, but that will make the problem worse, by further deterring investors who are an essential part of this equation.

Placing a cap of rentals is no help to desperate individuals and families who can&rsquo;t find a rental property at any price.

When it comes to building new homes, in desirable locations, there are crippling shortages of everything that forms part of the process. The first issue is getting your foot on a block of land. In many places, everything has been sold and it takes time for developers to create new supply of land that&rsquo;s ready to be sold.

If you do have a block of land with your name on it, the next issue is trying to find a builder who&rsquo;s not booked out for the next year or more.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89720 project_image_fid=147504]

If you have a builder, it&rsquo;s highly likely they can&rsquo;t do the job any time soon because they can&rsquo;t get steel or timber or bricks. Supply chains have been disrupted by the heavy demand and by the pandemic.

This means the cost of building your home is rising by the week. A lot.

If you&#39;re fortunate enough to have a fixed price contract locked in, your builder has a massive problem because they may be forced to build the home at a significant loss because their costs are going through the roof, pun intended.

Having the cost and completion date locked into a contract is worth little if your builder goes broke in mid-project.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102256 project_image_fid=163757]

Who caused this shemozzle? The idiot politicians who patted themselves on the back for bringing in the HomeBuilder handout, but didn&#39;t bother to consider the impact that would have on supply chains.

This has become a big problem for everyone in the market &ndash; consumers, builders, suppliers, selling agents, buyers&rsquo; agents, everyone.

It&rsquo;s all part of a dynamic mix of factors that is forcing up the price of real estate almost everywhere in Australia.

Multiple factors are driving our real estate markets, but it can all be distilled down to this: we have shortages of everything



Shortages of listings, rentals and approvals driving the property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

It&rsquo;s time we stopped treating first-home buyers as a protected species and considered the importance of other cohorts in the housing market.

It&rsquo;s become a kneejerk response in mainstream media to cry outrage whenever property prices rise, with concern for first-timers as the justification for strident headlines.

Media seems to never tire of the &ldquo;young Aussies have been priced out of the market&rdquo; storylines. I have a database of articles going back decades showing that this theme has been bashed by media constantly over the years.

The current claims that young adults are doomed to lifetime of renting are a replay of the headlines from last month, last year, two years ago, five years ago, 10 years ago and indeed 20 years ago.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5328 project_image_fid=163914]

Were they justified and accurate, the past 18 months would not occurred. Over the past year and a half, we&rsquo;ve seen record buying activity by first-home buyers.

The spectacular price growth seen in that period has been driven, not by investors, but by first-home buyers and other owner-occupier buyers. Helped by a high level of government assistance, they have pumped up demand at a time of low supply, hence the big price rises.

Rising prices make it harder for first-timers to get into their local markets, but otherwise there&rsquo;s never been a time when they&rsquo;ve had so much in their favour.

There are multiple federal and state schemes provided easy access to finance, cash hand-outs and special concessions on costs like stamp duty. The low level of mortgage rates is a bonus.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100322 project_image_fid=163024]

Australia is already doing all that it needs to do to smooth the path for budding young buyers.

Beyond that, how about some consideration for other types of buyers.

What about second-time buyers? Consider this scenario: a young couple buys a small apartment as their first home &ndash; it&rsquo;s affordable, well located and suits their lifestyle.

Then they decide to start a family and they need to upgrade to a larger dwelling. For most, this means selling the existing home and buying something more appropriate.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102256 project_image_fid=163750]

They&rsquo;re still young, aspirational Aussies seeking to navigate the property minefield of high competition, low supply, rising prices and prohibitive buying/selling costs. But what assistance does this country offer them? The answer is: nothing.

Once they&rsquo;ve bought that first home, they cease to be worthy of consideration or assistance. They&rsquo;re on their own.

So, what about down-sizers? Older Australians rattling around in the family home, with the kids grown and out in the world. The family home is now inappropriate to their needs &ndash; it&rsquo;s too big and it costs time, energy and money to maintain. Ideally, that older couple or individual would like to downsize &ndash; sell the big house and buy a comfortable low-maintenance apartment perhaps.

Many older Australians would like to take that step and we keep hearing politicians encouraging them to do so, to free up those big homes for young families.

But many don&rsquo;t take that step. Why not? Because the costs are prohibitive.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163974]

Selling a home and buying another can easily cost $50,000, $100,000 or more in stamp duty, agents&rsquo; commissions, legal fees, relocation costs and more. When you&rsquo;re retired or approaching retirement, those costs are deal-breakers.

I&rsquo;ve considered making the downsizing decision myself. I won&rsquo;t be doing it any time soon because the costs are ridiculous.

Politicians urge older Australians to make this move, but how much assistance is provided by them in terms of easing the cost burdens? Exactly zero.

And how about some incentives for investors to get active in the market. We have a chronic shortage of rental properties in most locations across Australia because of a series of measures by politicians and bureaucrats over the past 5-6 years that have massively discouraged investors. Australia needs to change course and encourage investors to buy homes and make them available for rent.

We don&rsquo;t need to stop the world and reorganise how our markets work because potential first-home buyers are having a whinge about how tough things are for them. They already have huge levels of government assistance available to them.

Rather, we should be considering ways to help other cohorts in the housing markets who are equally worthy of assistance. 
&nbsp;

It’s become a kneejerk response in mainstream media to cry outrage whenever property prices rise, with concern for first-timers as the justification for strident headlines

The first home buyer conundrum and why other buyer segments matter: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

The average punter will never let the facts get in the way of a cherished belief.

This is why Australian real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions to which people cling, regardless of the evidence.

Last week I wrote about the belief held by many people about the importance of being close to the CBD to get the best capital growth. There&rsquo;s copious data proving that&rsquo;s a major piece of nonsense, but some will never reject that sacred cow.

Here are some others &hellip;

It&rsquo;s all about interest rates

Another myth that pops up daily in mainstream media is the child-like notion (held primarily by economists who have child-like knowledge of real estate) that the fundamental driver of real estate prices in the level of interest rates.

In many ways this is the last refuge of scoundrels who wish to appear informed about the property market when in reality they know very little. When asked a question about real estate, the standard response is &ldquo;record low interest rates&rdquo;. It&rsquo;s a convenient way to avoid meaningful analysis.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163978]

Here&rsquo;s what passes for analysis for most economists seeking to explain real estate trends: if event A coincides with event B, then event A must have caused event B.

So if cheap finance coincides with rapidly rising prices, then that must be the cause. It overlooks the absence of growth in late 2019, also a time of record interest rates, and in the first half of 2020.

There was the same response when Sydney and Melbourne were having their boom from 2013 to 2017. The standard explanation was &ldquo;record low interest rates&rdquo;. Proponents of that theory were unable to explain why prices were falling in Perth and Darwin and stagnating in Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide. Nor did record low interest rates explain the subsequent decline in prices in Sydney and Melbourne after 2017, including the early part of 2020.

The theory also fails to explain how Australia managed spectacular property booms during an environment of very high and rising interest rates in the late 1980s and early 2000s.

I suspect real estate dynamics are too complex for the average economist to comprehend. Remember, these were the people who were predicting, 12-15 months ago, a major collapse in property prices (at a time of record low interest rates).

It&rsquo;s a bad time to sell because it&rsquo;s winter

Here&rsquo;s another myth that&rsquo;s currently doing the rounds, as people try to explain why there are relatively few properties for sale at a time of feverish buyer demand.

According to media reports, home-owners aren&rsquo;t listing because it&rsquo;s winter and winter is a bad time to sell property. They&rsquo;re waiting until spring because that, apparently, is the best time to sell.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600 project_image_fid=94632]

It beggars belief that anyone would believe that real estate fortunes are dictated by the seasons.

Here&rsquo;s the fundamental truth: the best time to sell is when there are lots of enthusiastic buyers competing for relatively few properties, with prices rising rapidly &ndash; i.e. right now. It has nothing to do with the seasons.

Somehow, the real estate industry has managed to convince the market that spring is the best time to sell. The same agents claim spring is also the best time to buy. Both cannot be true.

It&rsquo;s all about population growth

Another popular myth is that the fundamental driver of property prices is population growth. I could spend a long time dispelling this furphy, but suffice to ask this question: how is it that Sydney house prices are rising so fast (9.5% in the June Quarter and 18.5% in the first six months of the year, according to one source) at a time when the population data is negative for Sydney.

Sydney continues to lose population to internal migration (the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend that&rsquo;s been under way for several years) and its main source of population growth, overseas migration, has been blocked by our closed borders.

Sydney&rsquo;s losing population but its property prices are rocketing. The same is true for Melbourne, despite everything that has afflicted that city in the past year or so.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150447]

A catalyst for this column was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age (both prime sources of real estate misinformation) which claimed to present &ldquo;The top 5 reasons&rdquo; why house prices are rising. It rolled out the usual cliches &ndash; low interest rates, population growth, tax policies, etc &ndash; none of which in any way explains the past 6-12 months in Australian real estate.

Month-to-month price movements matter

You can be sure we&rsquo;re in the midst of a spectacular real estate up-cycle when media characterises a 2.1% rise in house prices in a single month as &ldquo;a loss of momentum&rdquo;.

The media coverage resulting from CoreLogic&rsquo;s report on June price trends claimed the market is losing momentum &ndash; because the monthly growth in dwelling values was slightly less than the previous month. There were headlines across the nation claiming that the market was running out of puff.

It&rsquo;s worth noting that the same happened in early May, because the average rise in values in April was slightly lower than March. This inspired headlines declaring that the boom was over. But then the May figures showed another big growth spurt.

Now the June figures are down (slightly) on May, therefore the market is apparently losing momentum.

Specialist real estate analysts with experience know it&rsquo;s a mistake to make big assumptions based on month-to-month price movements. It&rsquo;s too short a time frame for meaningful trends to become apparent. The monthly movements are often erratic.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2407 project_image_fid=77662]

The longer-term data is more reliable and meaningful. In the June Quarter, every capital city except Perth increased their house prices by 4.9% or more. The regional markets of NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory all rose by at least 5.5%. The national average for the quarter was a rise of 6.7%.

In the first six months of 2021, all capital cities grew 10% of more &ndash; except Perth, which increased &ldquo;only&rdquo; 7.3% in the first half of the year. The national average was a rise of 13.6%.

The figures suggests that there continues to be serious momentum in markets around Australia, driven by multiple strong factors.

The average punter will never let the facts get in the way of a cherished belief

Joel Robinson

Real estate myths and misconceptions: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

It&rsquo;s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

Long before the pandemic and its impact on the Central Business Districts of our major cities, the relevance of the CBD in choosing where to live or invest was diminishing year by year.

The fallacy persists that most people work in the CBD. The reality is that, in all our capital cities, the vast majority work in suburban employment nodes.

There are, for example, over 2.1 million people employed in the Greater Melbourne area, but only about 20% work in the City of Melbourne (the CBD and near-city suburbs).

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100322 project_image_fid=163036]

For most people, when it comes to choosing a place to live, the CBD is irrelevant.

They don&rsquo;t work there, they don&rsquo;t shop there and their kids don&rsquo;t go to school there.

The average person has little reason to ever visit a CBD, although they may occasionally go to a CBD for entertainment or leisure.

But I still have people regularly raising, as an objection to a particular location, that it&rsquo;s a long way from the CBD.

Like many myths in real estate, this one just refuses to die.

In Sydney, the suburbs closest to the CBD are greatly under-valued, with median house prices well under $2 million (which is miserable by Sydney standards), like Redfern ($1.45 million), Newtown ($1.42 million), Glebe ($1.7 million) and Camperdown ($1.6 million).

The most prestigious suburbs, the ones with median prices above $3 million, are in many cases a long way from the tall office buildings &ndash; suburbs like Cremorne, Killara, Lindfield and Manly.

The Sydney locations with the best long-term capital growth rates, those where price growth has averaged more than 8% per year over the past decade, include many which a great distance from the Sydney CBD.

They include humble suburbs a long, long way from the City, like &hellip;

<ul>
	<li>St Marys out at Penrith,</li>
	<li>Minto and Macquarie Fields in the far south-west,</li>
	<li>Parramatta and North Parramatta,</li>
	<li>Marsden Park out near Blacktown,</li>
	<li>Middleton Grange in the precinct around Liverpool,</li>
	<li>Smithfield in the Cumberland LGA,</li>
	<li>Canley Vale in the Fairfield LGA,</li>
	<li>Kogarah in the Georges River LGA</li>
</ul>

They also include Northern Beaches suburbs like Seaforth, Avalon Beach and Dee Why, as well as north-of-the-harbour locales like Cremorne, Lindfield, North Willoughby and West Ryde.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=32227 project_image_fid=93952]

In Melbourne, if you want to find superior capital growth over time, you need to head a long way from the City centre, in most cases.

The greatest concentration of suburbs with long-term growth averages above 7% per year in the Greater Melbourne area is the Mornington Peninsula, where Bittern, Mt Martha, Tootgarook and Sorrento all have outstanding growth records.

The distance between Sorrento and the Melbourne CBD is over 100km, around an hour and a half by car. The median house price for Sorrento has risen almost 30% in the past 12 months. Nearby Tootgarook is a lot less expensive, despite a 20% rise in the median price in the past year.

Only slightly closer to the tall buildings is the new development suburb of Clyde North in the City of Casey, with a long-term growth rate close to 9% per year.

The suburb of Williams Landing down in Wyndham City in the far south-west also has a long-term growth rate above 8% per year &ndash; as does the suburb of Mickleham in the City of Hume in the far north of the Melbourne metro area.

Middle-ring areas with great growth rates include Box Hill, Brunswick East and Derrimut.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94542 project_image_fid=160729]

All those places out-perform Toorak, Elwood, Elsternwick, Glen Iris, Kew and Malvern on capital growth rates.

Upmarket near-city locations which have outstanding growth rates &ndash; these are the exceptions rather than the norms &ndash; include Hawthorn, South Yarra and South Melbourne.

The key message is that the elements that drive values higher, because they attract buyers in large numbers, include affordability, infrastructure and lifestyle. Proximity to the CBD doesn&rsquo;t feature prominently.

So, if you&rsquo;re a home buyer or investor with a budget that forces you to buy in middle or outer ring areas, don&rsquo;t worry about it. There are way bigger things it&rsquo;s good to be close to, other than the CBD.

It’s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

Nothing wrong with buying property away from the CBD: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

The most predictable thing in real estate is the outrage that emerges from some sections of the community whenever dwelling prices rise. Equally predictable is the willingness of mainstream media to indulge the disaffected few 
who think politicians and bureaucrats should be taking action to stop the markets doing what they naturally do.

There was considerable media coverage last week of a &ldquo;report&rdquo; from the University of New South Wales which called for &ldquo;the immediate creation of a Royal Commission&rdquo; because rising prices constitute a national crisis and young Aussies are &ldquo;locked out of the market&rdquo;.

One headline based on this report declared: &ldquo;House prices a time bomb ready to erupt in the absence of immediate intervention&rdquo;.

The lead author was someone smart enough to attain the title of &ldquo;professor&rdquo; but not clever enough to understand the dynamics of real estate markets.

Here&rsquo;s one quote that demonstrates how little the report author knows:

&ldquo;Rampant price growth has&nbsp;returned to the&nbsp;larger cities&nbsp;and is now&nbsp;spreading to&nbsp;regional Australia. This&nbsp;is&nbsp;in&nbsp;part&nbsp;due to the pandemic-fueled work-from-home revolution&nbsp;but&nbsp;is&nbsp;also because so many younger Australians can no longer afford the life they want as homeowners in the larger cities.&rdquo;

There are several errors in that one short paragraph, which would tend to destroy the credibility of the commentator:

1. Price growth did not start with the big cities and spread to the regions &ndash; it&rsquo;s been the opposite. The regions have been leading on price growth for some time, alongside some of the smaller cities - and the big cities, notably Melbourne, have belatedly joined the party.

2. The work-from-home revolution is not an outcome of the pandemic. It&rsquo;s been under way for several years and has been fueled by technology and people&rsquo;s desire for a better lifestyle. Sydney has been losing population to internal migration for the past decade and Melbourne for the past four years. This is one reason why regional markets have been leading on price growth. The pandemic has provided further impetus to this trend but it certainly did not create it.

3. The statement that young people can&rsquo;t afford to live in the big cities has been plucked by the professor out of his fundamental orifice. First-home buyers have been in the market in record numbers of the past 12 months, boosted by federal and state stimulus measures, and have been buying in Sydney and Melbourne as much as anywhere else. They have been leading the market and have been prime instigators of the price rises.

But, in one sense, having a major parliamentary inquiry would be a great idea because it&rsquo;s a sure way to ensure that nothing fundamental will change. Royal Commissions can take years to produce a report and will provide photo opportunities for politicians, but real action is unlikely to result. Watch a few episodes of Yes Minister to see how it works.

We&rsquo;ve had inquiries into the housing market in the past. The most recent federal parliamentary shallow dive into housing affordability spent quite some time giving the appearance of being serious about solving the affordability issue, before taking the easy way out by scapegoating an unpopular minority, foreign investors.

This gave governments a licence to slug overseas buyers with new taxes and charges, providing a new revenue source, while changing nothing that mattered. Affordability did not improve because foreign investors would never the problem. Nor are negatively-geared Australian investors, the other popular choice by the disaffected minority to shoulder the blame for rising property prices.

The reality is that we&rsquo;ve had exceptional price growth over the past year or so, without any major involvement from investors, who collectively have been sitting on the fence for the past three or so years. They&rsquo;re only now starting to come into the market.

Investors never lead market cycles &ndash; they react to them, as they are right now. Those calling for a Royal Commission into the housing market are essentially demanding an inquiry into human behaviour.

If people behaved sensibly and rationally - and did real research to develop real knowledge of real estate - we wouldn&rsquo;t have the nationwide market upheavals we have every 15 or 20 years, including right now. Prices are rising at extraordinary speed because most people are essentially herd animals. They&rsquo;re diving feverishly into the market because everyone else is, not because their actions make sense.

But it&rsquo;s not supposed to make sense, any more than the startling highs and lows of the share market make any real sense. The smart people were buying 9-12 months ago, well ahead of the current frenzy, because they were informed and could see what was coming.

But most just follow the pack and right now the herd is stampeding. Prices are rising rapidly, but for many of our major markets it&rsquo;s the first real growth they&rsquo;ve shown in 5-10 years. Perth and Darwin last had a market peak in 2013 and have been in decline ever since. Now, at last, those cities are delivering some value growth to the long-suffering majority who own their homes &ndash; but self-absorbed Sydney academics would like to rob them of their long-overdue time in the sun.

Similarly, cities like Brisbane and Adelaide have been stagnating for much of the past decade. It&rsquo;s not a crisis for home-owners, including those who had the foresight to buy recently, that values are at last showing some growth. The real crisis in the housing market, and the one that truly does need government action, is the chronic shortage of rental properties.

The solution to this problem is to encourage property investors to do what property investors essentially do, which is create a pool of homes available for rental. That means we want them to be out there buying properties in large numbers.

The New Zealand Government recently had a major brain explosion and essentially wiped investors out of the market by scrapping tax benefits. This compounded the earlier decision to ban foreign investors. The outcome has been a shortage of rental properties even worse than Australia&rsquo;s. Australia risks making the same mistakes, if the politicians listen to misinformed academics.

Those calling for a Royal Commission into the housing market are essentially demanding an inquiry into human behaviour.

Why we don't need a Royal Commission in to surging house prices: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Price growth in the early part of 2021 has been beyond impressive in many locations across Australia - it&rsquo;s been exponential.

Every three months, Hotspotting analyses sales activity and prices for every suburb and town in the nation, for the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index.

In updating the median prices for each location, it&rsquo;s impossible to avoid the conclusion that something extraordinary has been happening in many of our property markets.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling. At Bondi Beach in Sydney, the median house price three months ago was $2,820,000. Now it&rsquo;s $3,100,000. That&rsquo;s an increase of $280,000 in just three months.

At Noosa Heads in Queensland, the median house price has risen from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, an increase of $250,000 - 22% - in three months. And at Byron Bay, the median house price has gone from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000. 
 
It&rsquo;s happening also in some of the nation&rsquo;s apartment markets. In Kogarah in Sydney, the median unit price has risen from $685,000 to $785,000, a rise 15% in three months, while the median unit price in Rose Bay has increased $125,000, St Ives is up $100,000 and Lindfield $125,000 in that time frame.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201 project_image_fid=89013]

Here are some Sydney examples of median price rises over the past 3 months:

<ul>
	<li>Lindfield, houses up from $2,750,000 to $3,120,000, units up from $1,200,000 to $1,325,000.</li>
	<li>Bronte, houses up from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000.</li>
	<li>Cremorne, houses from $2,800,000 to $3,000,000, units from $1,125,000 to $1,170,000.</li>
	<li>Croydon, houses from $1,570,000 to $1,770,000.</li>
	<li>Kogarah, houses from $1,305,000 to $1,405,000, units from $685,000 to $785,000.</li>
	<li>Fairlight, units from $1,425,000 to $1,560,000.</li>
	<li>Freshwater, houses from $2,480,000 to $2,660,000, units from $890,000 to $940,000.</li>
	<li>Kensington, houses from $2,445,000 to $2,680,000.</li>
	<li>Granville, houses from $730,000 to $805,000.</li>
	<li>Coogee, houses from $2,900,000 to $3,125,000.</li>
	<li>Kirrawee, units from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
	<li>Jannali, units from $665,000 to $730,000.</li>
	<li>Canley Vale, houses from $810,000 to $880,000.</li>
	<li>Collaroy, houses from $2,400,000 to $2,580,000, units from $875,000 to $905,000.</li>
	<li>Naremburn, houses from $2,280,000 to $2,620,000.</li>
	<li>North Sydney, units from $945,000 to $1,025,000.</li>
	<li>Rose Bay, houses from $3,810,000 to $3,960,000, units from $1,475,000 to $1,600,000.</li>
	<li>Woolloomooloo, units from $935,000 to $1,280,000.</li>
	<li>Seaforth, houses from $2,690,000 to $2,895,000.</li>
	<li>St Ives, houses from $2,040,000 to $2,175,000, units from $1,020,000 to $1,120,000.</li>
</ul>

Examples of median price rises in Regional Queensland include these:

<ul>
	<li>Minyama, houses up from $1,315,000 to $1,400,000.</li>
	<li>Mudjimba, houses from $770,000 to $845,000, units from $445,000 to $485,000.</li>
	<li>Noosa Heads, houses from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, units from $905,000 to $960,000.</li>
	<li>Maleny, houses from $675,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Mermaid Beach, houses from $1,350,000 to $1,440,000, units from $440,000 to $475,000.</li>
	<li>Burleigh Waters, houses from $820,000 to $870,000, units from $415,000 to $465,000.</li>
	<li>Palm Cove Cairns, houses from $670,000 to $745,000, units from $265,000 to $310,000.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22057 project_image_fid=150842]

And examples from Regional NSW include these:

<ul>
	<li>Wentworth Falls, houses up from $675,000 to $770,000.</li>
	<li>Byron Bay, houses from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000.</li>
	<li>Gerringong, houses from $890,000 to $995,000.</li>
	<li>Kiama, houses from $980,000 to $1,050,000, units from $630,000 to $680,000.</li>
	<li>Kingscliff, houses from $1,165,000 to $1,240,000 and units from $620,000 to $690,000.</li>
	<li>Merimbula, houses from $625,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Yamba, houses from $590,000 to $670,000, units from $450,000 to $510,000.</li>
	<li>Albury, houses from $550,000 to $605,000.</li>
	<li>Moss Vale, houses from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
</ul>

There are thousands of other similar scenarios from the various markets across Australia.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling across Sydney

Property price growth has been beyond impressive across Sydney: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

OPINION

Some people will kill for a bit of free publicity. The first thing to be murdered is the truth, in the quest for cheap limelight.

In real estate, a perennial favourite among those who seek media profile is the affordability crisis. This is a ripper yarn because it tugs at the tear ducts of all Australians whose hearts bleed for desperate young couples who can&rsquo;t afford to buy a home.

It&rsquo;s rubbish, of course, but the truth is always optional in these kinds of storylines.

First, here&rsquo;s the reality. The past year has been the best time ever to be a first-home buyer in Australia. The level of government assistance has never been higher and the cost of finance has never been lower. And investors have been fence-sitting so first-timers haven&rsquo;t had a lot of competition.

And young home-buyers have responded in record numbers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79249]

Yet, despite all of that, there are organisations who have managed to construct a scenario where no one can afford to buy or that prospective first-timers have to save for 10 or 12 years to cobble together a deposit for a meagre dwelling.

Here are some recent headlines from mainstream media:-

- &ldquo;Policy failures see houses become unattainable for young Australians&rdquo;

- &ldquo;Australian housing affordability worsens amid fears proposed safe lending laws repeal will lead to debt disaster&rdquo;

- &ldquo;Tensions in housing market as affordability worsens&rdquo;

- &ldquo;First home buyers take 10 years to save for a deposit&rdquo;

- &ldquo;From down payment to dealbreaker: Average house deposit now exceeds 100k&rdquo;

Those last two screamers are the biggest lies.

How do they concoct such scenarios, at a time when FHBs are out there buying in such large numbers?

[smartcode_project:default project_id=32227 project_image_fid=93945]

Very easily, so as long as you&rsquo;re not bothered by a conscience. You simply create a formula in which every component is a work a fiction.

Here&rsquo;s the proposition they put forward:-

- How long does it take the average young couple on typical incomes to save a 20% deposit to buy the median-priced house in Sydney?

It&rsquo;s difficult to imagine a scenario more distant from the reality of most FHBs across the nation.

Here&rsquo;s why &hellip;

- They stipulate a 20% deposit. Nobody saves a 20% deposit. You don&rsquo;t need to. You can currently get into a first home with a 5% deposit without having to pay mortgage insurance.

- First-home buyers don&rsquo;t buy median-priced properties, not in Sydney or anywhere else. They buy in the lower price ranges.

- Why houses? Many young Australians prefer apartments and not just because they&rsquo;re much cheaper. Why do these fictitious scenarios never insert apartments into the equation?

- Why this focus on our most expensive? Why not Brisbane or Perth or Adelaide?

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553 project_image_fid=147606]

So here&rsquo;s a realistic equation to give a true appraisal of the prospects for young buyers: how long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price quartiles in Brisbane?

Or how long does it take to save the required deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or Perth or Hobart?

Or, given the predominate trend in Australian real estate, how long to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in Orange or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast or Bendigo or Geelong?

Those are scenarios that equate to the reality faced by most prospective first-home buyers.

But you will never see that equation presented in mainstream media, because it doesn&rsquo;t serve the desired outcome: a screaming negative headline, with the truth optional.

Are first home buyers really priced out of the property market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
OPINION

The exodus to an affordable lifestyle has become the dominant trend in Australian real estate across the nation. 

But many people believe - mistakenly – that this means that Australians are moving en-masse to the beach. 

This speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of what is meant by the term “lifestyle”.

The reality is that the “lifestyle” means different things to different people – and, as a consequence, Australians are not just moving to the coast. 

Australians are moving in large numbers from the largest cities to some of the smaller capital cities and also to regional areas inland.

Brisbane, Hobart, Darwin, Adelaide – our smaller capital cities are gaining population from this trend, as are inland regional centres like Orange, Tamworth, Goulburn, Wagga Wagga, Mudgee, Toowoomba, Gympie, Ballarat, Bendigo and Mildura.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

So while coastal locations like the Central Coast in New South Wales and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland have been major beneficiaries, many of the locations getting the biggest uplift are hours away from the nearest beach.

The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend really started with people moving from Melbourne to regional centres in Victoria. This trend has been under way for at least the past 3-4 years.

Many of the suburbs of Ballarat have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year, with Soldiers Hill up 18% and Buninyong rising 22%. Virtually every suburb of Bendigo has grown more than 10% in the past year, with many of them rising by between 15% and 20%.

Several hours from Melbourne, Warrnambool is up 13% in 12 months, Shepparton has grown 11% and Mildura is up 10%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

The trend is also seen large numbers of Sydney residents moving to regional areas of New South Wales and to other parts of Australia.

In various parts of regional NSW, median house prices have risen 13% in Orange, 20% in Bowral, 12% in Parkes,11% in Mudgee and above 15% in some suburbs of Wagga Wagga.

All these places have rising prices on the back of a big uplift in sales activity, boosted by demand from major cities.

The population data shows that Sydney has been losing population to internal migration for the past 10 years and that Melbourne has also been losing population through people moving to other parts Australia for at least the past three years.

Clearly, in many cases, the relocation of people has not been to the coast but to regional cities and towns inland.

This is because “lifestyle” can mean living in a town where there is a strong sense of community or living in a place where there are no traffic lights and you can get a park in the main street.

People value the safety and security available in regional centres. These places are often seen as good places to raise a family. Many regional centres have good schools, including private schools, and all the facilities and amenities that families need to lead comfortable and fulfilling lives.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=32227]

I live in a hill change town in Queensland where the median house price has risen 22% in the past year, because it’s a perfect fit the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend.

This location is not about beaches, although they’re only 30 minutes away. It’s about green hills, clean air, a strong sense of community, safety, access to good schools and ease of parking (although it’s getting harder). There are no traffic lights in this town.

It’s a strong area for arts and crafts, has a great music scene and there are lots of good places to eat. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else. Lifestyle.

And I work from a home office. As a researcher and writer, I have no need to be in the big, expensive, congested capital cities, apart from the occasional visit to meet clients or speak at a seminar.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Exodus to affordable lifestyle not just moving to the beach: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
Expert Observer

One of the greatest causes of confusion for real estate consumers is the way research companies compile data on prices - and the way media outlets report the results of that research.

Media tends to report price information from each individual research firm as fact, without making any reference to the reality that it’s simply one firm’s view of the situation, based on their individual methodology.

Media will report, for example, that Canberra house prices have increased 14% in the past year. Fact. Because CoreLogic has published a press release saying this is the case. And therefore the Canberra market is booming

But the latest figures from the ABS claim that Canberra house prices have increased around 6% over 12 months. Therefore, the Canberra market is showing solid growth but you wouldn’t classify that as a boom.

But, wait. The latest data from SQM Research suggests that Canberra house prices are up just 0.4% in the past year. According to those figures, the Canberra market is hardly moving at all.

So Canberra is either stagnating, rising moderately or booming, depending on which research source you use.

But mainstream media doesn’t reveal that to real estate consumers. It reports each data release from sources such as Domain, CoreLogic, the ABS and SQM Research as gospel. 

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

And then publishes commentary pieces making all kinds of assumptions and conclusions based on the premise that the published figures are fact. 

For example, “Canberra houses are growing beyond the reach of many buyers, with prices up 14% in the past 12 months”. That’s based on CoreLogic data. But other sources disagree, including one that says Canberra prices haven’t moved at all in the past year.

I’ve put together a compilation of the latest price growth figures from three different sources – SQM, the ABS and CoreLogic - which shows the annual percentage growth in house prices and apartment prices in each of the capital cities.

According to two sources, Sydney apartment prices overall have shown small growth in the past year, but the third source suggests prices are still down 5%.

Melbourne house prices, in annual terms, are recovering and starting to grow again, according to two sources, but are still down based on the data published by the third source.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3565]

According to CoreLogic, Darwin is leading the nation on growth in its house prices, up 16% in the past year. But the ABS and SQM Research record annual rises of 2-3%, well below the levels of other cities.

SQM claims Darwin apartment prices are up almost 20% in the past year, but CoreLogic says the growth is around 10% and the ABS says it’s just 1.1%.

Mainstream media never highlights these discrepancies, but simply reports each new set of figures as a fact.

There are many reasons why these anomalies in the price data occur. 

You might think that the question of whether prices are rising or not, or by how much, is a matter of fact.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29358]

But it isn’t. Each research entity has its own individual methodology and parameters. There are also different time frames involved: the latest data from the ABS is up to the end of 2020, while the CoreLogic figures are up to the end of March 2021 and the SQM figures extend into the current month.

But the biggest problem is that the research firms are attempting the impossible. They’re seeking to distil all the thousands of property transactions in a city as large of Sydney down to a single figure, which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% or 5.3% or 2.5%. 

What’s happening in Bondi is very different to Penrith, and Vaucluse sits in stark contrast to Blacktown. They’re putting sales in suburbs where typical houses cost $5 million into the same melting pot as locations where the average home is $650,000 and expecting it to deliver a meaningful figure for “Sydney houses”.

According to the latest CoreLogic data, the annual growth in median houses in specific suburbs is as follows:-

Manly up 2.5%

Burwood down 8.8%

Cronulla up 21.3%

Blacktown up 7.1%

Rose Bay down 7.2%

Kensington up 3%

Kellyville up 13.2%

Gordon up 9.2%

Mt Druitt up 5%

Vaucluse up 2.5%

Putting all those differences, and hundreds of others, into the algorithm delivers a result which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% in the past year.

Fact.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Terry Ryder

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Terry Ryder

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News