More regional Victoria areas seeing over five percent yearly gains: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder
EXPERT OBSERVER
It’s been fascinating watching the ripple effect spread real estate growth throughout regional Victoria.
While the Melbourne market has been in decline in the past 18 months or so (generally speaking - some sectors have strongly resisted price decreases), there’s been notable price growth happening in Victoria markets outside the state capital.
Over the past 12-18 months, I have nominated Regional Victoria as the strongest market in the nation. Regional Victoria has been – and still is - one of the nation’s outstanding jurisdictions on price performance.
The standout feature in my latest analysis of sales activity and price trends is that locations a greater distance from Melbourne are now enjoying significant growth in prices.
Initially, most of the growth markets were locations within commutable distance of the Melbourne metropolitan area. It started with Geelong (pictured above) and, just outside the south-eastern outskirts of the metro area, the key towns of Cardinia Shire, Pakenham (below) and Officer.
Pakenham from above.
Then we saw Ballarat and the hill change towns a little north of Melbourne start to grow, as well as the towns of Baw Baw Shire in the east (Warragul and Drouin).
More recently, Bendigo in the north and the towns of the Latrobe Valley in the east have got on board.
And now growth markets are being found in locations more distant from the state capital, including Wodonga, Wangaratta, Echuca and Mildura. Some of the towns of East Gippsland (where I was last week, speaking at two events in busy Bairnsdale) are showing signs of growth as well.
My analysis of price trends shows that 84% of Regional Victoria markets have recorded median price growth in the past 12 months. Price decline of any magnitude is rare: I can find only one regional location where the median house price has fallen more than 5%.
Six out of 10 Regional Victoria markets have recorded median price growth above 5% in the past year – a total of 96 strong growth markets in the state outside of Melbourne, of which 35 have had double-digit growth in their median house prices. Another 39 markets have recorded price growth under 5%.
Ballarat is the standout on price performance. Four suburbs have had annual growth in their median house prices of 20% or more – Mt Pleasant (29%), Brown Hill (22%), Golden Point (21%) and Wendouree (20%).
But the No.1 location for annual price growth is the town of Maldon (below) in the Mt Alexander LGA north of Melbourne, where the median has risen 30% to $525,000 in past 12 months.
Maldon high street.
Notable price growth is happening elsewhere around the state: locations with annual median price growth between 15% and 20% include Cowes and Wonthaggi in the Bass Coast LGA; Geelong suburbs Drysdale, Whittington and St Leonards; Woodend in the Macedon Ranges LGA; Venus Bay in South Gippsland; Loch Sport in the Wellington LGA; Koo Wee Rup in Cardinia Shire; and Daylesford in the Hepburn LGA.
Many of these markets, especially Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, are attracting buyers out of Melbourne, as both investors and home-buyers seek affordability and/or better rental yields.
And new growth markets are emerging further afield.
Wangaratta (median house price $315,000) has emerged as a market where sales demand has grown steadily over the past two years. Quarterly sales have risen from 80-85 two years ago to around 120 more recently. Its median price has risen 11% in the past 12 months.
Further north at the NSW border, Wodonga (median $340,000) presents as a solid market with growing strength.
In the western precinct of the state, Port Fairy has growing sales activity and its median house price has increased 7% to $615,000 in the past year.
Other precincts which show promise of joining the general growth trend in Regional Victoria include the LGAs of Wellington (where Sale has rising sales activity), Latrobe (including Traralgon and Morwell), and East Gippsland (where Bairnsdale, Paynesville and Lakes Entrance have steady activity, with signs of prices rising).
All those municipalities are east of Melbourne, where growth is gradually rippling out from previous up markets in the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin).
But the growth isn’t just a reaction to the ripple effect and markets following the lead of Melbourne’s recent boom. Markets don’t rise unless something is happening in the local environment – such as a busy local economy, new business ventures, improved transport links and/or new spending on infrastructure.
The background is strong. The state of Victoria is the No.1 ranked economy in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report, and continues to lead the nation on population growth.
The states leads Australia on a number of other key indicators, including income growth, improvement in the jobless rate, building approvals, uplift in housing affordability and the number of first-home buyers active in the market.
All of that is helping to create the environment in which locations across Victoria have rising property values.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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