If the market's so hot then where's the rental growth?
Can anyone explain the absence of rental growth in our major markets?
Are we not suffering from a housing shortage crisis, with an accumulated undersupply of hundreds of thousands of dwellings?
Can the economists who speak constantly of this dwelling shortage explain how three of our eight capital cities recorded declines in house rentals in the March quarter, while four others recorded no growth?
Can the Housing Industry Association, the great champion of the shortage theory, explain why four of the capital cities recorded marked declines in apartment rentals, while two others recorded no change?
Do the laws of supply and demand no longer apply to residential property, such that Perth, Canberra and Hobart now have house rentals lower than a year ago (6% lower, in the case of the national capital), Sydney and Darwin have recorded zero growth, and only one city has recorded annual growth of more than 3%.
The only capital city experiencing a boom worthy of the name is Sydney – which was overdue after a decade of under-performance.
Out of eight capital city house markets and eight apartment markets, there is only one instance of solid annual growth in median asking rents – a 7% rise in Darwin’s apartment market.
Otherwise, according to the March Quarter Rental Report from Australian Property Monitors, it’s a story of stagnation or decline in residential rents in the capital cities.
This result, which is similar to the outcomes with rental reports from previous quarters stretching back to 2012, runs counter to the notion of shortages.
It’s also inconsistent with the idea of a national property boom, with markets rising as “a blistering pace”, as the ABC’s News 24 morning program misinformed us recently.
And speaking of research evidence that makes nonsense of claims about market performance, I continue to disbelieve the notion of a booming Melbourne market and I note similar sentiments expressed by SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher this week.
Christopher’s research on the number of residential properties listed for sale in each of the capital cities shows there are exceptionally high levels of supply available in Melbourne.
Melbourne currently has about 44,500 residential properties listed for sale. To put that into perspective, Sydney has only 24,200 properties listed.
This can be explained, partly at least, by the extraordinarily high levels of inner city apartments being marketed.
Christopher writes, “There are no new trends that have come out of the data this month - other than we note that Melbourne still has an elevated amount of listings in the market and so this has made us sceptical of recently-reported large increases in dwelling prices for that city.
“There is also further evidence that Melbourne vendors overall have struggled to lift their asking prices.”
Notions that the Melbourne market is rising strongly have been created by rubbery figures from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria and the rude haste with which RP Data spits out statistics under the “publish and be damned” principle.
In my view, the only capital city experiencing a boom worthy of the name is Sydney – which was overdue after a decade of under-performance.
