RBA's increasing concerns about housing price boom exuberance: Paul Bloxham

RBA's increasing concerns about housing price boom exuberance: Paul Bloxham
Jonathan ChancellorFebruary 7, 2017

GUEST OBSERVER

 

At this low level of the cash rate it seems that the hurdle for cutting further is very high.

One aspect of this is that the exuberant housing market remains a concern.

Another aspect is that despite the recent surprising fall in Q3 GDP, the RBA still expect GDP growth to pick up to an above trend pace of ‘around 3 percent over the next couple of years’ and for inflation to pick up to above 2 percent in 2017.

We agree with these forecasts and see the RBA on hold through 2017 before lifting the cash rate in 2018.

The RBA kept its cash rate steady today at 1.50 percent, as expected by 27 of 28 economists in the Bloomberg survey.

Just prior to the decision the market was pricing a 4 percent chance of a 25bp cut and a 15 percent chance of a 25bp cut by May.

The RBA seemingly has very little appetite to even consider cutting the cash rate further, with today’s statement not even describing it as an option.

Part of the reasoning is that the current low cash rate is already delivering a housing price boom in Sydney and Melbourne and there are increasing concerns about the exuberance of these housing markets.

It is also worth keeping in mind that Governor Lowe had already told us in a speech in November 2016 that cutting rates further may not be in the ‘public interest’ if it further boosted household debt even if it got inflation back to target more quickly.

The hurdle for a rate cut at this point in the cycle is clearly very high.

While we see the financial stability concerns as a key factor that kept the RBA on hold today, we also note that the central bank’s own take on the global and local economies remains quite positive.

On the global economy, the statement noted that growth in China had been stronger over the second half of 2016, that global business and consumer confidence had generally picked up and that inflation rates had generally moved higher.

It also stated that the recent lift in commodity prices was boosting Australia’s national income.

On the local economy, the statement (which was the first public comment from the RBA on the Q3 GDP numbers) suggested that the fall in GDP in Q3 was due to ‘temporary factors’ and that ‘reasonable growth’ was expected in Q4.

More importantly, the central bank re-affirmed that the RBA is still forecasting growth to pick up to an above trend pace of ‘around 3 percent over the next couple years’.

At the same time, it still sees inflation lifting back to the target band.

Focus will now shift to a speech the Governor is scheduled to deliver on 9 February and the official statement, due to be published on 10 February.

PAUL BLOXHAM IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 

Jonathan Chancellor

Jonathan Chancellor is one of Australia's most respected property journalists, having been at the top of the game since the early 1980s. Jonathan co-founded the property industry website Property Observer and has written for national and international publications.

Editor's Picks

First look: MADE Property doubles down in Kirribilli new apartment market
Spyre Group brings successful Queensland blueprint to Melbourne with Hampton Ltd
Saxon Street by Milieu to bring new housing and urban design to Brunswick’s cultural core
Construction begins at Fishermans Bend Innovation Precinct
Gurner reveals new plans for final Jam Factory stage

Related Projects

16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
Price
Contact agent
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
Price
Contact agent
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
Price
Contact agent
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
Price
Contact agent
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
Price
Contact agent
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
Price
Contact agent
18 Ransley Street, Penrith NSW 2750
Perle, East Side Quarter, Penrith - 18 Ransley Street, Penrith
18 Ransley Street, Penrith NSW 2750
Price
Contact agent
Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912
Raya, Gungahlin - Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin
Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912
Price
Contact agent
39 Browning Street, South Brisbane QLD 4101
39-41 Browning Street, South Brisbane - 39 Browning Street, South Brisbane
39 Browning Street, South Brisbane QLD 4101
Price
Contact agent
675 Gardeners Road, Mascot NSW 2020
Kiara North, Mascot - 675 Gardeners Road, Mascot
675 Gardeners Road, Mascot NSW 2020
Price
Contact agent
187 Salvado Road, Jolimont WA 6014
Jolie, Jolimont - 187 Salvado Road, Jolimont
187 Salvado Road, Jolimont WA 6014
Price
Contact agent
47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay TAS 7005
Grace Residences - 47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay
47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay TAS 7005
Price
Contact agent
Cove Lane, Narooma NSW 2546
Cove, Narooma - Cove Lane, Narooma
Cove Lane, Narooma NSW 2546
Price
Contact agent
52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock NSW 2046
Ava, Five Dock - 52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock
52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock NSW 2046
Price
Contact agent
2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach QLD 4218
The Alfred - 2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach
2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point NSW 2219
ALLURE COLLECTION - 129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point
129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point NSW 2219
Price
Contact agent
62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes ACT 2600
The Eastbourne on Commonwealth Park - 62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes
62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes ACT 2600
Price
Contact agent
155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Sandpiper, Broadbeach - 155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach
155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
Price
Contact agent
19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie QLD 4172
Park Hill Village Collection, Murarrie - 19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie
19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie QLD 4172
Price
Contact agent
122 Marine Parade, Miami QLD 4220
Nalu, Miami - 122 Marine Parade, Miami
122 Marine Parade, Miami QLD 4220
Price
Contact agent
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
Price
Contact agent
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly QLD 4105
Yeerongpilly Green - 21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly
21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly QLD 4105
Price
Contact agent
445-449 River St, Ballina NSW 2478
Solhaven - 445-449 River St, Ballina
445-449 River St, Ballina NSW 2478
Price
Contact agent
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
Price
Contact agent
6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville NSW
Horizon Hurstville - 6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville
6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville NSW
Price
Contact agent
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
Price
Contact agent
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Price
Contact agent
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
Price
Contact agent
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
Price
Contact agent
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
Price
Contact agent
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
Price
Contact agent
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
Price
Contact agent
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
Price
Contact agent
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
Price
Contact agent
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
Price
Contact agent
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
Price
Contact agent
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
Price
Contact agent
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
Price
Contact agent
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
Price
Contact agent
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
Price
Contact agent
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Price
Contact agent
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
Price
Contact agent
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
Price
Contact agent
273A Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075
273 Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075 - 273A Gorge Road, Paradise
273A Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075
Price
Contact agent
270 The Esplanade, Miami QLD 4220
270 The Esplanade, Miami QLD 4220
270 The Esplanade, Miami QLD 4220
Price
Contact agent
2 & 6 Austral Parade, East Bunbury WA 6230
2 & 6 Austral Parade, East Bunbury WA 6230
2 & 6 Austral Parade, East Bunbury WA 6230
Price
Contact agent
5 Charles Street, Charlestown NSW 2290
5 Charles Street, Charlestown NSW 2290
5 Charles Street, Charlestown NSW 2290
Price
Contact agent
59 & 69 Merthyr Road, New Farm QLD 4005
59 & 69 Merthyr Road, New Farm QLD 4005
59 & 69 Merthyr Road, New Farm QLD 4005
Price
Contact agent