Most experts expect Reserve Bank will hold rates for April: Finder

Most experts expect Reserve Bank will hold rates for April: Finder
Jessie RichardsonApril 6, 2015

The majority of respondents in Finder's monthly rate prediction survey expect that the Reserve Bank will not change the official cash rate this month.

The cash rate currently sits at 2.25% after a 25 basis point cut in February.

Of the 42 experts surveyed by the mortgage comparison website, just 10 believe that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate today. Those predicting a cut include Bill Evans of Westpac and ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan, who said: "The Reserve Bank has signalled they're likely to ease policy further. We still haven't seen any evidence of a sustained pick-up in non-mining business investment and the Australian dollar has been a bit high in previous weeks."

ANZ expects the official cash rate to drop to 2.0%. In today's Morning Focus release, however, the bank's researchers did note that the Reserve Bank's decision "looks to be a close one", observing the results of a recent Bloomberg survey, where 13 of 30 economists predicted a rate cut.

"With iron ore prices continuing to fall and the non-mining economic recovery continuing to disappoint, the decision seems at face-value to be simple one. However, the booming Sydney housing market has policymakers nervous and there is concern that a rate cut won't spur activity as much as is needed at this late stage in the easing cycle," reads ANZ's note.

However, Commonwealth Bank's Michael Blyth and NAB's Alan Oster believe that rates will remain unchanged today.

Most of the survey respondents predict the Reserve Bank will drop the cash rate by June.

Scott Haslem of USB said: "While you couldn't rule out an April cut, we believe the Reserve Bank will wait to see late-April's Q1 Consumer Price Index print, which should be low enough for them."

 

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