Value declines on most expensive properties are slowing: Cameron Kusher

EXPERT OBSERVER

The CoreLogic Stratified Hedonic Index highlights the performance of the housing market across three segments. These three segments are: the 25% of most affordable dwellings, the 50% of dwellings representing the middle market and the 25% of most expensive dwellings. The analysis within this report is measuring the six month annualised change in dwelling values.

Nationally, from the market peak to the end of May 2019, the most affordable quarter has seen values fall by -1.4%, the middle of the market has seen values fall -6.6% and the top quarter has fallen by -11.6%. The -1.4% fall across the lower quartile is the largest since Sep-18, the -6.6% fall across the middle of the marketis slightly down on the previous month while the -11.6% fall across the top quartile is the second consecutive month in which falls have slowed and the smallest annual decline since Dec-18.

• Combined capital cities 

Low quartile values are -5.1% lower over the year, middle market values have fallen -8.3% and top quartile is -12.4% lower. The -5.1% fall is the largest since September 2008 and the -12.4% fall is the smallest since December 2018.

• Combined regional markets 

Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -1.2% lower compared to a -1.6% fall across the middle of the market and a 6.7% fall across the top quartile (the largest fall since January 2012).

• Sydney 

The low quartile has recorded a value fall of -2.0% (smallest fall since Oct-18) compared to -11.9% across the middle of the market (smallest fall since Jan-19) and -12.5% across the top quartile (smallest fall since Nov-18).

• Regional NSW 

Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are 0.6% lower (slowest growth since Nov-18), the middle of the market has recorded falls of -4.6% and the top quartile has recorded falls of -9.0%.

• Melbourne 

The -13.8% fall across the most expensive quarter of dwellings is the smallest since Nov-18 while the middle of the market has seen values fall -10.1% (smallest fall since Jan-19) and the most affordable quarter has recorded a value fall of -0.9% (smallest fall since Dec-18).

• Regional Vic 

The most affordable quarter of properties have increased in value by 0.8% while the middle of the market has increased by 1.2% (slowest rate of growth since Sep-16) and the top quartile has fallen by -6.4% (the largest fall since Feb-12).

• Brisbane 

Values have fallen by -0.7% across the most affordable quarter of dwellings compared to a -3.3% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall since Feb-12) and a -6.2% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties (largest fall since Jan-12).

• Regional Qld 

The most expensive quarter of dwellings fell -3.5% compared to a 0.7% fall across the middle of the market and a -0.3% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market.

• Adelaide 

The most affordable quarter of dwellings have recorded growth of 0.9% (strongest growth since May-18) while the middle of the market has recorded a 0.3% increase and the top quarter of properties have recorded a fall of -2.7%, their largest fall since Jan-13.

• Regional SA 

The most affordable quarter of properties have increased by 0.3% over the past year (the strongest growth since Aug-18) compared to a 3.7% increase across the middle of the market and a 0.6% increase across the most affordable quarter of properties.

• Perth 

Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -2.4% lower over the year compared to an -8.9% fall across the middle of the market and an -11.6% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties.

• Regional WA 

The most affordable quarter of the market recorded a decline in values of -1.8% compared to -7.5% across the middle of the market and a -13.1% fall across the most expensive quarter, the largest fall since Jan-15.

• Hobart 

The most affordable quarter of properties recorded a value increase of 4.6% over the year (the slowest rate of growth since Jun-16) compared to a 0.6% increase across the middle of the market (slowest growth since Jun-16) and a -0.5% fall across the most expensive properties (largest fall since Feb-15).

• Regional Tas 

The most affordable quarter of properties recorded an 8.8% annual increase (strongest growth since Nov-18) while the middle of the market recorded growth of 3.8% and the most expensive quarter recorded 3.0% growth over the year.

• Darwin 

The most expensive quarter of properties across the city have fallen in value by -16.8% over the past year (largest fall since May-16) compared to a -17.0% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall on record) and a -14.6% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market (largest fall since Nov-18).

• Regional NT 

The most affordable quarter of properties have recorded an increase of 11.3% over the past year, their largest increase since Apr-17 while the middle of the market has seen values rise 1.9% and the most expensive quarter of properties have fallen by -0.2%.

• Canberra 

The most expensive quarter of properties have recorded no change in value over the past year while the middle of the market has recorded growth of 0.7% (slowest growth since Aug-16) and the most affordable quarter has recorded value growth of 1.3% (slowest growth since Jun-16).

Over the past year, most capital cities and regional markets have been recording value declines. While values are broadly continuing to fall, the rate of these falls on a monthly basis has been slowing. After having seen much larger corrections than the other two segments (following a larger growth phase), the most expensive segment of the market is seeing its rate of decline slow.

This is a trend that has played out before whereby premium housing values fall the fastest initially but also sees the falls cease earlier than other market segments. It is still early days but with the housing market expected to trough in late 2019, the premium housing sector may find a floor first and start to show some level of recovery before the other segments.

CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic

Kusher regularly posts on the CoreLogic website.