Spring listings surge where housing is softening: CoreLogic's weekend auction preview

Research analyst Cameron Kusher noted that as housing market conditions transition, stock levels remain tight across the strongest markets but are rising in areas where housing market conditions are softening.

For this analysis, Mr Kusher measured the amount of advertised stock on 280,000 the market on a rolling 28 day basis. He said, “Advertised stock levels provide a unique count, meaning that listings are matched to properties and when a property is advertised in more than one place it is only counted once.”

“It’s important to note that typically these counts are more reflective of the 230,000 established housing market rather than off-the-plan where stock often isn’t 220,000 individually advertised.”

• Across the nation CoreLogic is currently tracking 226,007 properties advertised for sale which is 5.3% lower than a year ago and well down on 2012 levels at this time of the year for the past five years.

• Across the combined capital cities, total stock advertised for sale is 1.0% 40,000 higher than it was a year ago with 110,909 properties advertised over the past 28 days. Looking at stock at this time of year across the combined capital cities there is more stock currently for sale than there has been each year since 2013.

Mr Kusher said, “By comparing capital city and national data it indicates that the amount of stock for sale in the regional markets is substantially 20,000 lower than it has been over recent years.

The combined regional markets account for 50.9% of total listings, its lowest proportion of national listings 15,000 since December 2011.”

Across the individual capital cities the data varies quite substantially.

• Sydney – currently has 25,625 properties advertised for sale which is 19.5% higher than a year ago. In comparison to the same time over recent years, the amount of stock on the market is now higher than each of the past four years. 25,000

• Melbourne – with 30,570 properties advertised for sale stock levels are - 1.7% lower than a year ago. The volume of stock for sale is lower for this time of year than any of the past 5 years.

• Brisbane – the number of properties advertised for sale is 2.5% higher than a year ago with 20,611 properties currently on the market.

Compared to this time of year over the past five years, listings are at their highest level since 2012 however, they are - 15.2% lower than 2012 levels.

• Adelaide – with 8,794 properties for sale, listings are 8.0% higher than a year ago and at their highest levels for this time of year since 2013 although they are -7.7% lower than 2013 levels.

• Perth – the 20,309 properties for sale in Perth is -14.3% lower than a 24,000 year ago however, it is also 1.6% higher than volumes at this time of year two years ago.

• Hobart – with 1,157 properties for sale across the city the volume of stock for sale -33.6% lower than a year ago and at its lowest level over 18,000 each of the past five years. In fact Hobart stock for sale is -54.7% lower than it was two years ago.

• Darwin – the 1,581 properties advertised for sale is -1.9% lower than a year ago however, stock levels remain elevated. In fact stock for sale is 73.0% higher than it was in 2012.

• Canberra – the 2,262 properties advertised for sale currently is 14.4% more than there were a year ago. The number of properties for sale is up on 2015 and 2016 levels.

Mr Kusher found that listings trends vary significantly across the country.

As an example, Hobart, which is the housing market with the strongest value growth has seen a dramatic fall in listings over recent years.

Meanwhile, values have fallen over the year in Perth and Darwin and each of these cities is seeing heightened stock levels.

Sydney has seen a rapid slowdown in growth over recent months and at the same time the volume of stock for sale has increased relative to recent 600 years.

In Melbourne, value growth remains relatively strong (although it has slowed a little) and the volume of stock for sale remains lower than over recent years.

Mr Kusher’s findings highlight that the stock for sale (supply) does have a fairly significant impact on the change in dwelling values. He said, “As stock increases, growth slows and as stock falls growth has accelerated.”