How much discounting is taking place? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher
Discounting is measured by comparing the original list price of a property to its ultimate selling price. At CoreLogic, auction sales are excluded from the calculation of the discounting measure.
Nationally, over the three months to April 2019, 75.6% of properties sold for less than their original list price. Typically the majority of dwellings sold sell for less than their original list price. The 75.6% of properties selling at a discount was above the decade average of 69.3% of properties.
It is a little bit of a different story across the combined capital cities. Although the combined capital cities are recording larger declines than the national index, a lower 72.9% of properties sold over the past three months did so for less than the original list price. While this is a much higher share than the decade average (62.3%) it is interesting to note that despite the weak conditions there are still more than a quarter of properties selling for more than the original list price.
Across Sydney, 78.1% of all property sales were at a price below the original list price over the past three months. During the boom in Sydney housing (2013-15) a majority of properties were actually selling for more than their list price. That phenomenon has changed substantially since dwelling values began to fall over recent years. The decade average shows that 59.4% of properties sold at a discount to the original list price.
Over the past decade, an average of 49.2% of Melbourne properties have sold at a discount to the original list price. This highlights the strength of the Melbourne housing market over recent years with sales at a discount much less prevalent than elsewhere. The recent weakness in the Melbourne market has seen this trend shift with 76.3% of sales over the past three months at a discount to the original list price.
Over the 14 year period, Brisbane has never seen a greater share of properties selling above than below the original list price. Over the past decade, an average of 71.4% of properties sold at a discount from the original list price compared to 67.2% over the past three months.
For most of the past 14 years a majority of Adelaide properties have sold at a discount however, in 2007 when dwelling values were booming the share of properties selling at a discount was as low as 29.9%. Currently, 75.4% of properties are selling at a discount which is above the long-term average which is recorded at 68.2%.
The ongoing weak housing market conditions in Perth has seen an average of 73.6% of properties sold over the past decade selling at a discount. You have to go all the way to 2006-07 when Perth’s housing market was booming to see a majority of properties not selling at a discount. Over the past three months, 74.1% of properties sold at a discount.
The recent strength of the Hobart housing market has seen a significant reduction in the share of properties selling at a discount however, over recent months the share has started to rise again. Over the past three months, 32.5% of properties sold at a discount, compared to the decade average of 55.2%.
The ongoing weak housing market conditions in Darwin has seen a large share of properties selling for less than their original list price. On average over the past decade, 84.9% of properties sold at a discount with the figure slightly higher over the past three months at 85.4%.
Over the past decade an average of 54.1% of properties sold transacted at a price below the original list price. Although the share of sales at a discount has increased in Canberra over recent months, a majority (45.8%) sold for less than the original list price.
As dwelling value growth accelerates, vendors can find it difficult to price properties, in-turn strong housing conditions typically result in fewer sales at a discount. With the national housing market continuing to see value declines it is expected that over the coming period relatively few properties will be selling at a price above the original list price.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
