560 Flinders Street, Melbourne

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its updated regional population growth figures on Wednesday and at 14,114 people per square kilometre, the Melbourne CBD sits as the second most densely populated area of the country behind Pyrmont-Ultimo in Sydney (15,117 people per square kilometre) .

Based on development underway and in the pipeline - in the sheer number of projects and the size of them - the Melbourne CBD is likely to be in pole position within 12-24 months.

The density statistics are based on the ABS' <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/88F6A0EDEB8879C0CA257801000C64D9">"SA2</a>" regions and the Melbourne CBD SA2 area is bounded by the Yarra, Flinders Street, Spring Street, Victoria Street, Peel/William Street, La Trobe Street and Spencer Street (refer to the lead image above).

The merits of eventually being the most densely populated part of Australia - using the ABS methodology - are likely to be contested, however the oncoming ascension to the premier position is notable given the state of affairs in Melbourne's CBD 30 years ago.

I wonder if the City of Melbourne would have thought it possible in the 1980s that their heartland was to one day become the country's most densely populated?

We've come a long way since the early days of postcode 3000.

On June 30th 2015, the population of Melbourne's CBD stood at 33,433 according to the ABS data and the area bounded by the streets and river mentioned above measures 2.4 square kilometres.

Looking ahead over the next five to ten years it's not going to be a gradual ascension to the top of the ABS' SA2 density league tables, it's more likely to be akin to a violent, out-of-control steamroller driven by an angry mob that is going to set the bar incredibly high.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/collins_st_5pm_ngv.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="John Brack's &quot;Collins Street, 5pm&quot; painted in 1955. Image via NGV"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="408" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/collins_st_5pm_ngv.jpg?itok=EFu9Znqn" title="John Brack's &quot;Collins Street, 5pm&quot; painted in 1955. Image via NGV" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>John Brack's "Collins Street, 5pm" painted in 1955. Image via <a href="http://www.ngv.vic.gov.au/explore/collection/work/3161/">NGV</a></figcaption></figure>Consider the following.

We're tracking 68 residential, student accommodation or mixed-use projects on the Urban.com.au Project Database located within the Melbourne SA2 and they have a combined 27,000-30,000 dwellings.

18 of the projects are currently under construction which together will produce 6000-7000 dwellings. According to the <a href="http://melbournepopulation.geografia.com.au/areas/CLSA01">City of Melbourne</a>, the average household size in the CBD standas at 1.91 and is forecast to decrease to 1.44 over the longer term.

The number of dwellings under construction could equate to a further 8500 to 10,000 new residents when using the longer-term household size forecast, potentially boosting the total population to 42,000-43,500 and increasing the population density of 17,500-18,125.

11 projects have a sales campaign underway and that, in total, is another 5000 dwellings in the pipeline with the potential to provide space for 7,200 new residents.

The remaining 39 projects being assessed by council or the Minister and those that are already approved total 16,000-18,000 dwellings; creating enough living space for 23,000-26,000 new Melburnists.

Even if only half the projects in the pipeline - everything except what's currently under construction - were to eventually be built and tenanted, that's could equate to a further 15,000-17,000 new Melbourne CBD residents.

Doubling the population and therefore the population density of Melbourne's CBD over the next 5-10 years? It's very much realistic and the numbers above broadly correlate with the <a href="http://melbournepopulation.geografia.com.au/areas/CLSA01">City of Melbourne's own forecast</a>.

In ten years the population density of Melbourne's CBD is forecast to between 26,000 and 27,000 people per square kilometre, comparable with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10th_arrondissement_of_Paris">10th</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_arrondissement_of_Paris">14th</a> arrondissements of Paris, and similar to the projections for the 'half-sized' Fishermans Bend based on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/fishermans-bend-to-become-australias-most-densely-populated-area">public domain information from 2013</a>.

That's what I meant by it's going to be violent ascension above all other national peers. No wonder the Lord Mayor was keen to see 447 Collins and its new green space approved.
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Alastair Taylor

Melbourne CBD on course to be the most densely populated area in Australia

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A development site with a long and varied history is back in focus as an application for a substantial residential tower continues to go through the necessary planning channels. 9-27 Downie Street with the south west corner of Melbourne's CBD is the site in question, intermittently finding itself in and out of the news over the past decade.

Once a site held by Key Securities Investments Group Pty Ltd, 9-27 Downie Street was to be rebirthed during 2002 as The Archer with 200 apartments within an Edgard Pirrotta-designed 35 level tower. Key Securities Investments Group Pty Ltd's subsequent demise laid low any plans for redevelopment of the site in the medium term.

With the site changing hands once more during 2014, developer Einwood Pty Ltd wasted little time in advancing plans for a 52 storey building onsite, lodging documents with the then DTPLI during November 2014. After receiving feedback identifying various design issues with the initial proposal, a revised scheme of some 38 levels was put forward during April 2015.

With the revised application in hand, Melbourne City Council has recently had its say on the proposal, deeming certain aspects of it, and particularly the lack of setbacks to Downie Street, unacceptable.

<h2>9-27 Downie Street, Melbourne application summary</h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/image146.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Differing views of the proposal's lower levels. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="412" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/image146.jpg?itok=0J-rwQI2" title="Differing views of the proposal's lower levels. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Differing views of the proposal's lower levels. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp</figcaption></figure><ul>
<li>Demolition of the existing structure over the 1,188sqm site</li>
	<li>Construction of a 38 level apartment tower at 118.8 metres in height</li>
	<li>335 apartments split between 150 x 1BR and 185 x 2BR dwellings</li>
	<li>Four retail tenancies to Downie Street, each with an area of 40-42sqm</li>
	<li>Level 34 communal area of 137.9sqm</li>
	<li>Proposal GFA: 27,893sqm</li>
	<li>Podium capacity for 101 vehicles and 139 bicycle spaces</li>
	<li>Nominal project value: $50 million</li>
</ul>
<h2>Form and materials</h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/image149.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="East elevation. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="336" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/image149.jpg?itok=AAfFb-sH" title="East elevation. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>East elevation. Image courtesy Peddle Thorp</figcaption></figure>Given the tight nature of the site the proposal seeks to maximise its utilisation of available space. Over levels 2-7 the building extends as much as 950mm over Downie Street, constituting a podium of sorts with an overall height of 27 metres.

According to the Report to the Future Melbourne (Planning) Committee, setbacks to other boundaries include a minimum five metres over levels 9-33 from the south boundary, minimum five metres from the west boundary and zero to the northern site boundary.

Externally Peddle Thorp have employed a materials schedule that could be considered their signature of sorts. Tones of blue and black with white and precast horizontal elements are prevalent, with timber applied to the lower levels.

<h2>Melbourne City council have their say</h2>

As taken from the Report to the Future Melbourne (Planning) Committee, recommending that the proposal be rejected:

<blockquote>
The combination of podium level balconies overhanging Downie Street and minimal/zero setbacks from Downie Street at the tower levels will result in a building which will overwhelm the pedestrian, be visually intrusive and dominant from the public realm and create a canyon-like effect in Downie Street.

Tower setbacks from the south boundary represent an inadequate response to the potential for further development of the land to the south. The proposal also raises issues relating to the amenity of a number of bedrooms including west-facing saddle-back bedrooms which will experience relatively poor daylight and ventilation compared to that which would be provided by conventional windows.

The proposed building will overshadow Batman Park at 1 pm and 2 pm on 22 June, contrary to Clause 22.02 of the Melbourne Planning Scheme. 7. The changes to the development required to render it consistent with requirements of the Melbourne Planning Scheme are considered so significant that they cannot be addressed by conditions.
<cite>Report to the Future Melbourne (Planning) Committee, 7 July 2015</cite>
</blockquote>

The final decision will rest with DELWP and Planning Minister Richard Wynne. Interestingly enough Downie Street maintains two examples of towers sans podiums; the under construction <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/buildings/560-flinders-street-melbourne">560 Flinders Street</a> and the completed Eifel mixed-use tower at 8 Downie Street. Whether the precedence is maintained or broken with 9-27 Downie Street remains to be seen.

<h2>9-27 Downie Street, Melbourne development team</h2>

<ul>
<li>Developer: Einwood Pty Ltd</li>
	<li>Architect: Peddle Thorp</li>
	<li>Planning: proUrban</li>
</ul>
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Melbourne CBD on course to be the most densely populated area in Australia

What's in a podium? 9-27 Downie Street, Melbourne

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