Young Adults

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Young adults not only struggle to buy a home, many struggle to secure any kind of independent housing. This contributes to a cycle of living in precarious and informal housing and to a growing gap between their current situation and their short and longer-term housing aspirations.
A <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/318" target="_blank">report released today</a> by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (<a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/about-us/who-we-are-and-what-we-do" target="_blank">AHURI</a>) adds nuance to debates about generational change and housing by examining how housing aspirations differ among emerging adults (18-24 years) and in early adulthood (25-34 years). For example, emerging adults are more likely than the older cohort to prefer living in an apartment.
By early adulthood, the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector, particularly those on higher incomes, and narrowest for home owners. Home buyers on low to moderate incomes are most happy with their housing.
While long-held values around the ideal of home ownership prevail, these are not as persistent as for past generations. The ideal differs according to age, education and the quality and security of current living arrangements. But having somewhere safe and secure to call home was the top priority across all young adults.
Aspirations change with stage of life
An extended phase of dependence to semi-dependence shapes the housing aspirations of young adults. This involves either remaining in the family home or sharing with others.
In 2015-16, the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">ABS Survey of Income and Housing</a> revealed that only one in six (17%) young adults (18-24 years) lived independently. Two-thirds (66%) lived with parents. Around a third of young adults (25-34 years) are also opting to remain or move back with parents or live in shared housing.
While these living arrangements reflect concerns about housing affordability, they are also used as a strategy to pursue other aspirations, such as education.
What do young adults want in their housing?
The AHURI <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-in-progress/ahuri-inquiries/evidence-based-policy-inquiry-51170" target="_blank">research</a> includes a nationally representative survey of more than 2,400 Australians aged 18-34 years. It was supported by focus groups and in-depth interviews, including with Indigenous Australians, in Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.
Home ownership was the ideal tenure for 60% of emerging adults (18-24). By early adulthood (25-34) the proportion had climbed to 70%. The ideal of home ownership was lower (61%) for those still living in the family home by early adulthood compared with higher-income couples living independently (80%).
By early adulthood, educational status becomes a key marker of whether home ownership is considered possible. Nearly two-thirds (61%) of households with a tertiary-educated member believed they could buy a house within five years. This compares with just over a third of those with an education to year 12 (36%) and less than a quarter (23%) of those with an education to year 11 or below.
The preference for apartment living falls with age. About a third (34%) of emerging adults reported this as their ideal, compared with 21% of early adults.
Young adults also want more space. The largest share of both emerging (32%) and early adults (43%) indicated that a four-bedroom house is ideal. This compares to just 20% of those over 55 years of age who wanted four or more bedrooms.
How large is the housing aspirations gap?
For emerging adults (18-24), living in a group household typically met short-term (82%) but not longer-term (25%) aspirations. Similarly, living with parents mostly met short-term (76%) but not longer-term (30%) aspirations.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Australian Housing Aspirations Survey 2018, Author provided
By early adulthood (25-34) the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector, particularly those on higher incomes. For higher-income groups, their current private rental housing met the short-term aspirations of just over three-quarters (76%) but only 20% for longer-term aspirations.
The aspirations gap is narrowest for home owners. Home buyers on low to moderate incomes were most happy with their housing in the short-term (92%) and longer-term (60%).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Housing Aspirations Survey 2018, Author provided
What can be done to close the aspirations gap?
Very few people are actively planning for their housing futures. Affordability and the deposit gap, insufficient income, employment insecurity and “waiting for the market to settle down” all impact on achieving longer-term aspirations. In the short-term, not being in a preferred location, high mobility and insecurity matter most.
Housing policy needs to become more realistic about the housing futures of young Australians. Achieving both short- and longer-term aspirations requires new policy frameworks that can enable young people to move towards attaining “secure independence”.
Public debate about the housing aspirations of young adults gained prominence during the federal election with <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-but-well-formed-the-new-home-deposit-scheme-will-help-and-its-unlikely-to-push-up-prices-117073" target="_blank">promises of a targeted scheme</a> to help first home buyers. Proposed first home owner deposit schemes are an important step in meeting aspirations, particularly among private renters with higher and secure incomes.
But before young people even contemplate home ownership they need greater support in making key life transitions, such as from education to work, via more continuous and integrated packages of housing assistance.
We also need continued reforms to ensure a fairer and more secure private rental sector with short and longer-term leasing options close to employment and training, and with stable rents.
There needs to be diversity and real choice in dwelling types, size and locations and scaling up of more sustainable and niche models of co-housing.
As for young people locked out of home ownership in the long-term, they need a way to build an investment nest egg and to access quality social and public rental housing.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121431/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Sharon Parkinson, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
Amity James, Senior Lecturer, School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University
Steven Rowley, Head of School, Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University. Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University
Wendy Stone, Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions and Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Swinburne Research Centre, Swinburne University of Technology
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-home-buyer-schemes-arent-enough-to-meet-young-adults-housing-aspirations-121431" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

First home buyer schemes aren’t enough to meet young adults’ housing aspirations

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is well-established that recessions hit young people the hardest.
We saw it in our early 1980s recession, our early 1990s recession, and in the one we are now entering.
The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features4Week%20ending%202%20May%202020" target="_blank">payroll data</a> shows that for most age groups, employment fell 5% to 6% between mid-March and May. For workers in their 20s, it fell 10.7%
The most dramatic divergence in the fortunes of young and older Australians came in the mid 1970s recession when the unemployment rate for those aged 15-19 shot up from 4% to 10% in the space of one year. A year later it was 12%, and 15% a year after that.
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Unemployment rates 1971-1977
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336271/original/file-20200520-152288-16b5n6o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336271/original/file-20200520-152288-16b5n6o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6203.0">ABS 6203.0</a>
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At the time, 15 to 19 years of age was when young people got jobs. Only one third completed Year 12.
What is less well known is how long the effects lasted. They seem to be present more than 40 years later.
The Australians who were 15 to 19 years old at the time of the mid-1970s recession were born in the early 1960s.
In almost every recent <a href="http://positivepsychology.org.uk/subjective-well-being/" target="_blank">subjective well-being</a> survey they have performed worse that those born before or after that period.
Subjective well-being is determined by asking respondents how satisified they are with their lives on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is totally dissatisfied and 10 is totally satisfied.
Australia’s Household, Income and Labour Dynamics survey (<a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">HILDA</a>) has been asking the question since 2001.
In order to fairly compare the life satisfaction of different generations it is necessary to adjust the findings to compensate for other things known to affect satisfaction including income, gender, marital status, education and employment status.
Doing that and selecting the 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 surveys to examine how children born at the start of the 1960s have fared relative to those born earlier and later, shows that regardless of their age at the time of the survey, they are less satisfied than those born at other times.
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Subjective wellbeing by birth cohort over four HILDA surveys
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336287/original/file-20200520-152311-h03y48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336287/original/file-20200520-152311-h03y48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Subjective well-being on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is totally dissatisfied and 10 is totally satisfied. <a class="source" href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">Regressions available upon request</a>
The consistency of lower levels of subjective well-being reported by the 1961-1965 birth cohort suggests something has had a lasting effect.
An obvious candidate is the dramatic increase in the rate of youth unemployment in at the time many of this age group were trying to get a job.
Over time, labour markets can recover but the scars of entering the labour market during a time of sudden high unemployment can be permanent.
The impacts of the early 1980s and early 1990s recessions on young people were alleviated somewhat by the doubling of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4220.0" target="_blank">Year 12 retention rate</a> and later by the doubling of <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/student-data" target="_blank">university enrolments</a>.
But the education sector is maxed out and might not be able to perform the same trick for the third recession in a row.
Reinvigorating apprenticeships and providing cadetships for non-trade occupations might help. Otherwise the effects of the 2020 recession on an unlucky group of Australians might stay with us for a very long time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137236/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jenny-chesters-869325" target="_blank">Jenny Chesters</a>, Senior Lecturer/ Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/recessions-scar-young-people-their-entire-lives-even-into-retirement-137236" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Recessions scar young people their entire lives, even into retirement

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While early adulthood is traditionally seen as the period when young adults begin to live independently, new AHURI research reveals that many young Australians are putting their longer term housing aspirations on hold to meet other life goals such as completing education or gaining secure employment.
In 2015-16, only 17% of young adults aged 18-24 years lived independently, with most (66%) still living with their parents.
Furthermore, around a third of Australians aged 25–34 either remained or moved back with parents or lived in shared housing.
The research, Young Australians and the housing aspirations gap, undertaken for AHURI by researchers from Swinburne University and Curtin University, examined the short and longer term housing aspirations and the housing aspirations gap (i.e. where current housing is not meeting people’s requirements) among ‘emerging adults’ (aged 18–24 years) and ‘early adults’ (aged 25– 34 years).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%201.jpg" alt="">
"As house prices and rents have risen ahead of incomes, it is taking longer for young adults to create their own independent and secure households, and for some it is not attainable in the foreseeable future," says the report’s lead author, Dr Sharon Parkinson of Swinburne University.
"This has led many to staying or returning to the family home, or taking up informal living arrangements such as living in group households."
The ideal of home ownership is not as persistent as for past generations, varying with age, education and quality of current living arrangement. 60% of Australians aged 18–24 years and 70% of those aged 25–34 years identified owning and living in their own home as their ideal tenure. This compares to 80% of older Australians.
For emerging adults (18-24 years) sharing a house with a group typically met their short-term (82%) but not longer-term (25%) aspirations. While living with parents mostly met short-term (76%) but not longer-term (30%) aspirations.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%202.jpg" alt="">
For early adults (25–34 years) the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector. For interviewees renting privately, the requirement to move house was the one constant in their lives.
Short-term aspirations for this group were shaped around ‘horizontal’ moves or finding an arrangement slightly better than the previous move, but with no sense of moving upwards or being closer to achieving their longer term housing hopes.
Despite rising housing costs, most 18-24 year olds thought homeownership would be possible in the near future.
"We found that many emerging adults had a ‘blind optimism’ that they would be able to achieve their housing aspirations despite not actively planning for their housing future," says Dr Parkinson.
"Nearly a third of those we surveyed felt that they would be purchasing a home within the next five years with a further 36% believing they would buy in 5 to 10 years." 
By early adulthood there is a sharp divide in optimism influenced by education and income levels.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/emerging%20adults%203.jpg" alt="">
Nearly two-thirds (61%) with a tertiary education and a higher income believe they would buy a property within five years, compared to just over a third (36%) for those with an education to year 12 or below, and less than a quarter (23%) for those with an education to year 11 or below.
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<li>More young Australians are not only being priced out of home ownership, but independent rental housing too. Only 17% of Australians aged 18-24 lived independently in 2015-16, and most (66%) lived with parents. Meanwhile, around a third of Australians aged 25–34 remained or moved back with parents, or lived in shared housing.</li>
<li>The ideal of home ownership is not as persistent as for past generations, varying with age, education and quality of current living arrangement. 60% of Australians aged 18–24 years and 70% of those aged 25–34 years identified owning and living in their own home as their ideal tenure. This compares to 80% of older Australians.</li>
<li>Despite house prices and rents rising ahead of incomes, 18–24 year olds held a ‘blind optimism’ for home ownership. 32% felt that purchasing a dwelling would be attainable within the next five years; and 36% considered it attainable in 5–10 years. This optimism decreases by early adulthood (25–34 years), influenced by education and income levels.</li>
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The report <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/318" target="_blank">can be downloaded</a> from the AHURI website.
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Young Adults

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