Valiue Growth

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for October 2015 earlier today. 
Focusing just on dwelling approvals, although they were slightly lower than the recent record high levels, the overall number of dwellings approved for construction remain extremely high from a historical standpoint.
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
There were 19,652 dwelling approvals in October which was 3.9% higher over the month and 12.3% higher year-on-year.  If we look at approvals over the past 12 months there has been a record high 233,180 approvals which is 17.3% higher year on year.
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
In October 2015, there were 9,435 houses and 10,218 units approved for construction nationally.  House approvals are -2.1% lower over the month and -2.3% lower year-on-year.  The more ‘lumpy’ unit approvals have increased by 10.1% over the month and are 30.2% higher year-on-year.  The data highlights the rising prevalence of unit approvals and this is particularly reflected if we look at the annual approvals.  For the first time ever there have been more units approved (117,072) over the past year than houses (116,111).
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
With the rising prevalence of unit construction there has also been a record high proportion of high-rise approvals over the past year.  Looking at unit approvals over the past year, 25.5% of approvals were for townhouses, 9.1% were for low-rise (less than four storeys) and 65.4% were for high-rise (four storeys or more).  
To put the rise in high-rise into context, a year ago 56.5% of unit approvals were high-rise, five years ago the figure was 38.1% and a decade ago high-rise accounted for 36.9% of unit approvals.  Clearly densification and demand for inner city living is driving the rising demand for high-rise units.  
It’s also important to note that over recent years, Chinese and Indians have overtaken New Zealanders and those from the United Kingdom as our largest sources of migrants.  While New Zealanders and those from the United Kingdom often prefer houses like most Australians, Chinese and Indians are much more accustomed to living in smaller homes and in much higher density environments.  This is another driver of the growing prevalence of high-rise approvals.
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
Turning to approvals in the capital cities, there were 17,236 capital city dwelling approvals in October which was 15.9% higher over the month and 16.9% higher year-on-year. There were 6,691 houses and 10,545 units approved for construction over the month.  House approvals fell by -1.8% over the month to be -6.6% lower year-on-year while unit approvals increased 30.8% over the month and were 39.2% higher year-on-year.
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
Across the individual capital cities, house approvals generally fell over the month however, they have for the most part been trending higher of late but are lower relative to a year ago.  Over the month there were 1,373 approvals in Sydney, 2,244 in Melbourne, 945 in Brisbane, 1,410 in Perth, 540 in Adelaide, 77 in Hobart, 43 in Darwin and 59 in Canberra.  Year-on-year the changes in approvals have been recorded at -3.8% in Sydney, +2.4% in Melbourne, -6.8% in Brisbane, -23.9% in Perth, +24.4% in Adelaide, +6.9% in Hobart, -30.6% in Darwin and -45.9% in Canberra.
<a href="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/2/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
While housing approvals may be showing early signs of slowing across the capital cities, the same can’t be said for unit approvals which in most cities remain at or close to record highs.  Across the capital cities there were 3,630 approvals in Sydney, 3,640 in Melbourne, 1,671 in Brisbane, 677 in Perth, 561 in Adelaide, 6 in Hobart, 215 in Darwin and 145 in Canberra.  The year-on-year changes in approvals have been recorded at +73.7% in Sydney, +32.6% in Melbourne, +37.4% in Brisbane, -10.8% in Perth, +18.4% in Adelaide, -80.6% in Hobart, +83.8% in Darwin and +0.7% in Canberra.
Based on the data it seems that the demand from developers to seek approvals for units, particularly high rise approvals, is continuing to climb.  Countering this is the slowing in detached housing demand.  As mentioned earlier, the biggest sources of migration to Australia are more comfortable with high-rise development and this coupled with the fact it is relatively more affordable than detached houses seems to be driving the demand. 
The challenge from here with value growth now slowing is how many of these approvals will be delivered to the market.  We already have concerns surrounding potential settlement risk for projects already under construction given that banks have recently changed lending requirements to investor.  Keep in mind that unit stock is much more likely to be purchased by investors than detached houses.
Although there has been a slight easing of approvals over recent months they remain at near record highs.  Of course population growth is winding down, particularly overseas migration, which should result in an ongoing improvement in housing supply relative to housing demand.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Dwelling approvals remain at near record high levels thanks to high-rise approvals: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
Growth has been strong, but inflation is weak. This is an unusual combination.
Typically, strong growth sees a pick-up in domestic demand, which creates jobs and drives wages and inflation up.
Not this time.
Part of the reason has been that global inflation is low, but this is not the full story.
Australia's low inflation also reflects an unusual local cycle. The end of the mining boom has been long and drawn out, running for four years, so far.
Faced with falling commodity prices, which have weighed on national incomes, Australia's economy has adjusted with slower wages growth, down from 4% to 2% y-o-y. This has, in turn, delivered lower inflation.
In this way, we see low inflation as an element of Australia's rebalancing act, as growth shifts from being driven by the mining sector towards the housing and services sector.
Slower wages growth has helped to improve Australia's competitiveness, supporting the shift in growth.
The shift itself has also lowered wages growth, as higher paid mining jobs are being replaced by lower paid services jobs.
Low wages growth and inflation have also allowed the RBA to cut its cash rate, supporting the rebalancing of growth, and pushing the AUD lower, which has helped to improve local competitiveness.
Lower wages growth and inflation have helped to allow the economy to more smoothly absorb the impact of lower commodity prices.
We see inflation as likely to pick up when the rebalancing act is complete, which we forecast to be around mid-2017.
In our view, commodity prices have already passed the trough and mining investment should start to stabilise around mid-2017.
As a result, we see wages growth and underlying inflation stabilising soon and edging higher in 2017. It is for this reason that we do not expect the Australian cash rate to fall much further.
Our central case is for a 25bp cut in August, following the second quarter underlying CPI print (on 27 July) and for the RBA to hold its cash rate steady at 1.50% over subsequent quarters.
However, this view is conditioned on the Q2 underlying inflation print being below 0.5% q-o-q. If it is higher, the RBA may not cut.
</body></html>

Valiue Growth

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Valiue Growth

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News