Vacancy Rates

<p>The national residential rental vacancy rate fell to 1.7% June down from 1.8% in the month prior, reflecting the lowest vacancy rate at the national level since May 2011.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Vacancy rates continue to fall for Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart, while some regional locations recorded a moderate rise in vacancies.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The total number of vacancies Australia-wide now stands at 60,457 residential properties, down from 62,144 in May.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne&rsquo;s vacancy rate fell to 3.5% in June from 3.7% in May, while in Sydney vacancy rates dropped to 2.8% from 2.9%.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3459 project_image_fid=147569]</p>

<p>SQM calculated vacancy rates fell again within the Melbourne CBD to 5.8%.</p>

<p>It also fell in the Sydney CBD to 5.6%.</p>

<p>Just a month prior the CBD vacancy rates sat at 8% in Melbourne, and in the Sydney CBD at 6.8%.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=79424]</p>

<p>Both CBD were seeing &quot;a return towards more-longer term levels,&quot; according to SQM&#39;s Louis Christopher.</p>

<p>The &nbsp;Melbourne CBD vacancy rates was at 8.3% in April.</p>

<p>Other capital city results saw Brisbane at at 1.3%.</p>

<p>In Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart, the June vacancy rate remained below 1%, while Perth (0.9%) and Darwin (0.4%) remained constant.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Darwin has been positively affected by Covid-19, as low vacancy rates continue to boost rents.&nbsp;</p>


Melbourne’s June vacancy rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in May, while in Sydney vacancy rates dropped to 2.8% from 2.9%

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Vacancy rates in recovery for Melbourne CBD landlord investors: SQM

<p>Suburban vacancy rates continue to fall, according to new SQM Research data revealed Tuesday.</p>

<p>The Australian investment research house recorded a 0.2 per cent drop in the national residential rental vacancy rate over the month of April, falling to 1.9 per cent from 2.1 per cent in March.</p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/vacancy_rates.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Vacancy Rates - April 2021"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="263" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/vacancy_rates.png?itok=K3RQjn1f" title="Vacancy Rates - April 2021" width="580" /></a>

<figcaption>Vacancy Rates - April 2021</figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Melbourne&rsquo;s vacancy rate fell to 4.0 per cent in April from 4.4 per cent, while in Sydney it dropped to 3.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent.</p>

<p>In Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart, the vacancy rate remained below 1.0 per cent, while Brisbane&rsquo;s fell to 1.4 per cent.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Along with the smaller capitals, Brisbane&rsquo;s vacancy rate has become extremely tight and so we are expecting a surge in rents for the city this year&rdquo;, Christopher said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=26734 project_image_fid=153694]</p>

<p>Vacancy rates in Perth and Darwin saw the most significant drop over the year, with rates falling 1.3 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively.</p>

<p>Rents have also jumped in these smaller cities, a trend that SQM managing director Louis Christopher believes we could see continue given the recent commodities boom for iron ore and other base metals.</p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/asking_prices.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Weekly Rents Index - 11 May 2021"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="560" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/asking_prices.png?itok=xko1lk5t" title="Weekly Rents Index - 11 May 2021" width="580" /></a>

<figcaption>Weekly Rents Index - 11 May 2021</figcaption>
</figure>

<p>&ldquo;Demand for rental accommodations is still outstripping supply, which is having the effect of boosting rents in many locations and unaffordable to lower income tenants&rdquo;, Christopher said.</p>

<p>In some locations, including the Gold Coast and New South Wales&rsquo; North Coast, landlords are demanding huge rent hikes, with asking rents soaring 32 per cent for houses on the Gold Coast over the year.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=22057 project_image_fid=150842]</p>

<p>This surge has occurred as people migrate out of the big capital cities and move to regional and warmer locations, as well as the number of occupiers per dwelling fall, the research revealed.</p>

<p>&ldquo;People are also looking for larger properties as they work from home and not wishing to live together.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In contrast, rates for Melbourne and Sydney CBDs remain elevated with the loss of international student tenants combined with apartment oversupply.</p>

<p>These were among the only areas recording rises in vacancy rates, excluding Sydney&rsquo;s Liverpool.</p>


As a result of demand outstripping supply, some locations, including the Gold Coast, are seeing asking rents soaring 32 per cent over the year

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National residential vacancy rates continue to fall: SQM Research

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<div>
<em>SQM Research</em>'s released its latest news and views on vacancy rates and asking rents in Australia - with capital city vacancy rates nationally ticking down from 2.4 per cent to 2.3 per cent in August.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SQM found that vacancy rates have increased strongly in Darwin (+2.0 per cent to 3.5 per cent) and Perth (+1.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent) over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, SQM also found that vacancy rates ticked down slightly across most capital cities in August. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the strength of the dwelling supply response one would be forgiven for thinking that vacancy rates might have increased in Sydney and Melbourne over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet this has not played out in either case, with city-wide vacancy rates declining to just 1.7 per cent in Sydney and 2.2 per cent in Melbourne respectively (from 2.6 per cent one year ago in the case of Melbourne).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/16/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/16/SQM.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>SQM's data showed that while rents in the largest capitals had increased ahead of the headline rate of inflation over the past year, asking rents for houses in Darwin have crashed by -21.3 per cent, while asking rents for houses in Perth were also down by -8.1 per cent.</div>
<div>
<br>Asking rents for houses were up strongly in Hobart (+6.7 per cent) as the market tightens, with vacancy rates in the Tasmanian capital now at just 1.1 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Demographics</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite very strong levels of approvals and construction, vacancy rates have actually decreased in Sydney and Melbourne over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>How so? One of the clues might be found in the ABS Population by Age &amp; Sex data which I analysed recently. </div>
<br><div>And that is that population growth has become increasingly focussed on the inner and middle ring suburbs of the largest capital cities, both cause and effect of the natrure of the supply response through this cycle, as well as emerging employment trends. </div>
<br><span>For example, see the headline 2009-2014 data for Greater </span>Melbourne<span>...</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/16/Pop1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/16/Pop1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>...Greater </span>Sydney<span>...</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/16/Pop2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/16/Pop2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>...and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Greater </span>Brisbane<span>.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/16/Pop3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/16/Pop3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>There is, however, still a high volume of apartment approvals in the pipeline in all three of largest capitals.</div>
<br><div>As the above charts show over the long run the population growth to absorb the new supply has been evident, while much of the new high rise stock isn't that appealing to homebuyers in any case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, driven by a Sydney economic boom the New South Wales economy has added a thumping +118,800 jobs over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It should therefore be little surprise that interstate migration away from the Premier State had recently declined to its lowest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, not much sign of rising vacancy rates in the two largest capitals in this release, but SQM's Louis Christopher does see vacancies rising over the year ahead.</div>
<div>
<br>And I agree, With the strength of the dwelling construction cycle underway this must surely be the case.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a related note, dwelling construction surprisingly detracted from GDP growth in the second quarter, which would appear to be an anomalous result given the veritable forest of cranes on the city skylines.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While I'm not in the business of issuing flash forecasts for GDP - a fool's errand if ever there was one - it wouldn't be a surprise to me to see dwelling construction and a positive reversal in net exports (and possibly, inventories) leading to a +0.5 per cent result for Q3, before quarterly growth of +0.7 per cent returning for the next few quarters thereafter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, whether or not household consumption and public/government investment can continue to produce the positive contributions that they did in Q2 is another question.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Vacancy rates tighten a little: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national residential vacancy rate was stable at 2 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents a slight decline from a year earlier, when the vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only Melbourne and Hobart had higher vacancy rates than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that properties need to be advertised for 3 weeks before being classified as vacant, there's more likely to be a jump in April as Airbnb operators and other short-term accommodation providers are forced to try more conventional routes for leasing their properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 6-month moving average by capital city is plotted below, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zJdu7a0K0QU/XpT_eswSm-I/AAAAAAAA1Og/-dMPxJ-RFect1lCV6nMdBke9TtLGEwfkwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1414"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more short-term units hitting the market the median asking rental price was down in March.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Residential vacancy rates down to 2 percent: Pete Wargent

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<p>Vacancy rates declined in January, after December's seasonal spike, according to SQM Research.</p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">All of the capital cities recorded a drop in January, not unusually for the time of year. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/17/SQM.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/17/SQM.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Nationally the vacancy rate of 2.4 percent was the same as one year previously.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">The tightest market was Hobart at 0.7 percent, the Tasmanian capital recording strong gains in median asking rents, while the highest vacancy rate was in Perth at 4.8 percent. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Although the figures aren't seasonally adjusted, below I've smoothed them on a 4mMA basis to give some kind of feel for the trend. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/17/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/17/SQM2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Perth and Darwin have continued to record declining rents, while SQM noted that inner city apartments in Brisbane have seen declines of 2.5 to 5 per cent in asking rents, something I can confirm from having witnessed it first-hand. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">To date the Sydney and Melbourne apartment markets appear to be holding up better, with the reported vacancy rate in Melbourne actually lower than a year ago, and median asking rents higher in both of the most populous capital cities. </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">After some truly diabolical declines in dwelling prices ranging anywhere from 50 to 90 per cent in some cases, SQM notes that the bust in some mining towns may now finally be bottoming out. </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Vacancy rates are down in a range of resources towns from a year previously.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/17/SQM-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/17/SQM-1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><em>Source: SQM Research</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">No, still not a buy, before you ask! </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>. </em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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Vacancy rates ease after seasonal spike: Pete Wargent

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<p>If online listings are any guide, the rental market in Sydney has been tightening lately, with fewer rentals being advertised across a high number of suburbs.</p>
<p>According to the REINSW inner Sydney vacancy rates were unchanged in August at 1.9 per cent, but middle ring Sydney tightened by 0.3 per cent to 1.6 percent, while outer Sydney's vacancy rate of 1.7 per cent was the lowest since November 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/23/B1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="x_post-body-4479739622962738159" class="x_post-body x_entry-content">
<div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/23/B1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Smoothing the figures on a 4mMA basis to nip out a bit of the noise shows that Sydney vacancy rates have been fairly flat over the past year in the middle and outer ring, but are some way tighter in the inner suburbs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/09/23/B2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/23/B2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The vacancy rate in Newcastle has sneaked back up to 3 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Tenants' Union (TU) Rent Tracker found that Sydney unit rents moved 5 percent higher over the past year, while house rents were 3 percent higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/09/23/Rents1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/23/Rents1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Rents have moved sharply higher in Randwick and Woollahra over the past year according to the TU, but regional areas have been found to be "much more stable".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The TU believes that the CPI measures understate Sydney's rental price growth. Their long run data also shows Sydney rents rising much faster than inflation.</div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/23/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/23/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="x_separator"> </div>
<div class="x_separator"><span>According to the TU over the last 20 years new rents have generally increased at an average of around 8 per cent across Sydney and 5 per cent across the rest of New South Wales.</span></div>
<div class="x_separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="x_separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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