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Housing prices could fall 10 percent as banks crimp riskier lending and the ALP plans to limit negative gearing tax breaks, warns UBS.
The global financial services firm has suggested the number of home loans could drop 30 percent due to credit tightening.
They said the economy could be set for a record long house price downturn.
"We expect further credit tightening, and the RBA’s lack of willingness to cut rates this time, to see the longest house price downturn in decades," the bank advised.
UBS have suggested the risks are now "tilted to the downside", having previously predicted the value of home loans written could drop 20 percent and housing prices could fall 5 percent.
They now expect home loan falls of up to 30 per cent and price drops of up to 10 per cent.
“Positively, the economy and labour market remain solid for now,” UBS noted.
They said borrowing capacity could reduce by around $100,000 for many households with new comprehensive credit reporting rules from mid next year.
Credit card limits and other debts could be taken into account.
National dwelling price to income ratio is near a record high of about 6.5 times. It's around nine times in Sydney and eight in Melbourne. 
Researchers George Tharenou, Carlos Cacho and Jim Xu said the federal opposition’s plan to limit negative gearing tax concessions for future purchases to new housing and halve the capital gains tax concession to 25 per cent.
Moody's recently suggested more borrowers will <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/89837-australian-rmbs-home-loan-delinquencies-to-rise-moderately-over-2018-moody-s" target="_blank">fall behind on their home loans</a> in 2019.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Housing prices could fall 10 percent warns UBS

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The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index score for New York remains relatively unchanged at 0.13, which is in the fairly-valued territory.
The rebound in price growth rates has largely run out of steam, particularly at the high end, the latest update noted.
Growth rates in the second quarter halved compared to the previous year and remain below the countrywide average.
Supply expansion and the prospect of higher mortgage rates should dampen any overly optimistic price expectations in the short run, says UBS.
 <img src="/images/2016/09/28/Downside.jpg" alt="">
Real house prices in the New York metropolitan area are almost 25% lower than they were 10 years ago. In the second quarter of 2016, residential prices increased by less than 2% in inflation-adjusted terms, about half the previous year’s rise. It was the fourth consecutive year that real price growth in New York lagged the US average.
The city remains one of the most expensive and unaffordable cities in the world. A skilled-service worker from the New York area would need to work for about 11 years to buy a 60 square metre unit near the city center.
Most notably, rents are more than 50% higher in real terms than they were in 2006, making New York rents one of the highest worldwide. Consequently, the price-to-rent in Manhattan is below average compared to most other financial centres.
In Manhattan, house prices dynamics were stronger in the last couple of years than in the overall New York region, propelled by demand from global investors and a series of new luxury developments. The tide has turned, however, as the luxury market looks increasingly oversupplied.
A historically fair valuation, wage growth and low interest rates are supportive and should limit downside risk for the broader housing market, the UBS report predicts.
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Residential price uptrend stalls in New York: UBS bubble index

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The amount of home loans that have been extended based on "factually inaccurate" information is estimated to have reached $500 billion, according to an updated study by investment bank UBS.
The broker said that its latest survey of over 900 mortgage applications originated over the last 12 months revealed that about one third of home loans contained information that was not accurate.
Given the "rising level of misstatement" of many years, UBS said it estimated $500 billion of home loans were "liar loans", the researchers, Jonathan Mott, Rachel Bentzvelen and George Tharenou wrote.
"While household debt levels, elevated house prices and subdued income growth are well known, these finding suggest mortgagors are more stretched than the banks believe, implying losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate.
The UBS report suggested more borrowers were lying by under-representing their expenses and living costs.
Borrowers were also over-stating income and assets and understating loans.
Mortgage &amp; Finance Association of Australia chief executive Mike Fenton said the findings were "wrong" and were based on an incorrect calculation.
 
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"Liar loans" risk rises for Australian mortgage lenders: UBS

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Investment bank UBS’s latest report saying ‘liar loans’ have reached $500 billion has met with strong opposition from a brokers body.
The Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) said in a media release that UBS was being reckless with its analysis of so-called ‘liar loans’ because it is based on implied presumptions.
UBS said that its latest survey of over 900 mortgage applications originated over the last 12 months revealed that about <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/75738-liar-loans-risk-rises-for-australian-mortgage-lenders-ubs" target="_blank">one third of home loans</a> contained information that was not accurate.
Meanwhile, Australian Securities and Investments Commission chairman Greg Medcraft has said that a broken mortgage broker remuneration model and loose lending could trigger a <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/75810-liar-loans-could-spark-mortgage-crisis-says-asic-chief-greg-medcraft" target="_blank">subprime mortgage crisis</a>.
Medcraft irresponsible lending is facilitated because of the mortgage broker remuneration model which rewards brokers for securing larger loans for their clients.
Referring to the UBS report, FBAA executive director Peter White said the figure was based on interpretation of their own research and asked the data be justified.
“I want to see their data analysis,” said White. “We need to see the questions they asked participants and we need to know how much and under what conditions they were paid.”
“UBS must prove there is no steering of answers or influences to produce outcomes which are not factual or fair or commercially sound,” he added.
White also questioned the validity of the data, saying UBS is not a lender in the home loan space, so there “needs to be clear transparency of their supposed results”.
“This is not their data and not data from a bank/lender, so the question must be asked as to the accuracy and integrity of the research, which is fundamentally divorced of market broker and lender marketplace data.”
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Brokers association questions validity of UBS analysis on ‘liar loans’

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UBS has secured the mandate to advise the Victorian government on the sale of its land titles unit. 
The state has been seeking an adviser likely to recommend a sale in line with other states including New South Wales and South Australia. 
The unit is expected to be worth $2 billion plus.
Sources told the Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column that Victoria's Treasurer Tim Pallas wanted a sale finalised by the end of August 2018. 
Meanwhile after more than 15 years at 570 Bourke Street, Land Use Victoria is moving to 2 Lonsdale Street Melbourne.
Land Registry Services’ and Plan Acceptance’s offices at 570 Bourke Street closed to the public at noon on Friday 25 August and opened in the new location at 8.30 am on Tuesday 29 August.
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UBS to advise Victorian Government on land title sale

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A third of customers with interest-only home loans may not properly understand the product and could end up in stress once they start paying back the principal, according to investment bank UBS.
Typically, a borrower has to pay only the interest component of a loan when he takes out an interest-only loan for the first five years. After that, monthly payments go up as the borrower also starts paying back the principal.
The new analysis by UBS concluded that borrowers would be exposed to financial stress once their monthly payment jumps. 
The findings are based on a survey the bank conducted between July 7 and August 4 this year seeking responses from borrowers who took out a home loan within the previous 12 months.
UBS found only 23.9 per cent of 907 respondents had an interest-only loan, compared with economy-wide figures that show 35.3 per cent of loans are interest-only, Fairfax Media reported.
Lead analyst Jonathan Mott noted that he initially suspected the survey sample had an error, but now believed a "more plausible" reason was that interest-only customers did not properly understand their loan.
We are concerned that it is likely that approximately one third of borrowers who have taken out an interest-only mortgage have little understanding of the product or that their repayments will jump by between 30 and 60 per cent at the end of the interest-only period (depending on the residual term)," he was quoted by Fairfax Media as saying.
UBS quoted surveys by ME Bank to show many Australians have an apparent lack of financial literacy and understanding of home loan products, with 38 per cent admitting they had "no understanding of interest-only repayments".
He also cited a 2014 Standard &amp; Poor's report that said 64 per cent of Australian adults were financially literate, implying 36 per cent were not.
The survey follows another one by UBS which revealed that there were <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/75738-liar-loans-risk-rises-for-australian-mortgage-lenders-ubs" target="_blank">$500 billion of “liar loans”</a>, meaning they were written based on inaccurate information provided by borrowers in their application.
UBS said that over 70 per cent of survey respondents that took out an interest-only loan said they were "under moderate to high levels of financial stress".
"While these loans are well secured, we believe many borrowers may face substantial stress as interest rates rise or when they revert to principal and interest," UBS wrote.
UBS pointed out that mortgage misselling and irresponsible lending could have contributed to the problem.
The survey also suggested that borrowers would cut their spending (50 per cent) or begin paying down principal (24 per cent), once the higher payments start.
It also noted that the moves by the banks to increase interest rates on interest-only mortgages provided a "substantial" boost to their margins.
Interest-only loan rates have increased by an average of 74 basis points for investors, to 6.26 per cent and 49 basis points for owner occupied borrowers over the last 12 months to 5.78 per cent.
It comes as banks have responded to regulators asking to restrict interest-only loans to 30 percent as the property sector is increasingly being seen as a risk to the economy.
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One in three interest-only borrowers don't understand their loans: UBS

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Australia's national house price growth is likely to be flat - or possibly in low single digits - for the several years, according to UBS.
The latest UBS report, 'Get rich or borrow trying', warns that even small changes to credit conditions, such as a drop in availability of investor-only loans which have been targeted by the bank regulator, will "materially impact" house price growth.
According to UBS households are much more sensitive to tightening financial conditions from higher mortgage rates and the lagged impact of macroprudential measures than many realise.
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">House price growth should moderate to around 7 per cent in 2017 and to between 0 per cent to 3 per cent in 2018, according to UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">But the “forever boom” is ending, UBS clients were told, according to The Australian.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="related-quotes section">"We would still characterise our outlook as a 'soft landing', given we still don't expect a sudden collapse in prices," they wrote in a report on Fairfax Media.</div>
"But it does seem likely that Australia faces a prolonged multi-year period of flat or low single digit nominal price growth." 
Signs of a slowdown in house price are fast-emerging. House prices in Sydney fell 0.1 per cent over September, the first fall since late 2015, on Corelogic figures and 1.9 per cent, on Domain figures.
Veteran analyst Louis Christopher is predicting <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/77159-no-sydney-housing-crash-in-2018-but-we-will-see-a-slowdown-sqm-s-louis-christopher" target="_blank">sedate house price growth</a> in Sydney of between 4 per cent to 8 per cent in 2018 if the cash rate and economy remains unchanged. 
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Australian property prices headed for "prolonged" flat period: UBS 

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The Brisbane apartment market is seeing one in five foreign buyers fail to settle, according to investment bank UBS.
It comes as tighter capital controls are imposed in China.
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UBS said default rates for top east coast developers remained low in light of residential price growth being strong for many of the buyers who purchased off the plan two to three years ago.
These buyers had a strong incentive to settle.
But the research highlighted the Brisbane market as where foreign buyers were not necessarily in the money.
The Brisbane apartment market has been the subject of recent warnings from the Reserve Bank after strong supply concentrated in inner city areas.
“The Brisbane apartment market is overbuilt in our view [with] residential prices largely tracking sideways for the last two years,” UBS analysts led by Kim Wright wrote.
“Resale prices are 10 per cent or more below purchase price and bank valuations are frequently below the initial purchase price.
“Poor quality projects are under significant pressure and we understand one in five foreign buyers aren’t settling, citing tightened capital controls.”
Listed developers Mirvac and Lendlease only had a small exposure to Brisbane apartment completions, UBS said, but flagged continued focus on the issue.
“We will be watching the market closely and also to provide an understanding of how foreign buyers will react if prices in Sydney and Melbourne also softened.”
More broadly, UBS said most Chinese consumers around the world had been financing their global property purchasers with cash or mortgages from Chinese banks, reducing concerns about settlement risk.
About a third of buyers paid cash using their savings and nearly three in 10 paid cash with help from family and friends.
Of the one-third of buyers who borrowed, 85 per cent used a Chinese bank rather than a local bank.
The research comes from a survey of 3,060 Chinese consumers that found an increasing trend in mainland Chinese ownership of global residential property.
The survey found around 14 per cent of properties purchased by Chinese consumers were bought for investment and left vacant, a figure that had fallen over the past six months.
Another 26 per cent of properties were used by their owners only part of the time, perhaps for holidays, business or to visit family.
“As much as 40 per cent of the overseas property owned by mainland Chinese may not be fully utilised,” UBS said.
“This may have ramifications for the vibrancy of the surrounding retail space and amenity of the area.”
Roughly a quarter of the purchasers live in their property full-time, while more than 40 per cent bought investment properties and rented them out.
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Brisbane foreigner OTP apartment defaults at one in five: UBS

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Just months after UBS called the top of Australia’s property market, the investment bank has now declared the housing boom is “officially” over.
In the wake of the latest home price figures for October, its economists forecast a “persistent and sharp slowdown” unfolding in response to lending restrictions and out-of-cycle mortgage rate hikes.
The weakness in auction clearance rates, and the near flat month-on-month growth in prices in the last five months, "suggest the cooling may be happening a bit more quickly than even we expected.”
UBS expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the official cash rate on hold until the second half of 2018.
CoreLogic’s latest monthly read on home values found <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/77644-sydney-prices-slip-again-with-hobart-overtaking-melbourne-as-hottest-capital-corelogic" target="_blank">price growth was flat nationally</a> during October and up just 6.6 per cent annually — the weakest pace of growth since 2016.
Values fell half a per cent in the nation’s biggest housing market, Sydney.
“This is broadly consistent with our housing deep dive ‘calling the top’, which forecast a moderation to 7% year-on-year by end-2017, before dropping further to 0-3% year-on-year in 2018,” UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho said.
Now the duo have downgraded their growth forecasts for this year to just 5 percent.
“Australia’s world record housing boom is ‘officially’ over after a large ‘upswing’ of 6556% price growth in 55 years,” he says.
<div id="taboola-mid-article-stream-thumbnails" class=" trc_related_container trc_spotlight_widget">“After dwelling price growth was resilient at a booming 10% [plus annual] pace earlier this year, there is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding."</div>
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UBS calls property boom over and lowers national price growth forecast from 7 to 5 percent

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The ailing food franchisor Retail Food Group may close more than 400 stores over the next three years, according to a report by UBS.
The investment bank slashed its earnings forecasts for Retail Food Group after factoring in shrinking sales from store closures.
UBS analyst Jordan Rogers believes RFG may need to close as many as 456 stores in Australia between 2018 and 2020, mainly in its bakery division, which includes Donut King, Michel's Patisseries and Brumby's Bakery, and its quick service restaurants divisions, which owns the Crust and Pizza Capers brands. 
This doesn't include about 200 outlets forecast to close in 2018, the Australian Financial Review article noted.
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Store closures in Australia would be partially offset by about 145 new stores and outlets overseas, taking total stores to 1984 by 2020. However, RFG is unlikely to reach its long term target for 3500 stores.
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RFG shares have fallen 44 per cent since Friday, when the franchise systems business announced plans to close between 160 and 200 outlets over the next 15 months.
UBS believes more closures will be necessary before RFG reaches a sustainable base.
​"We expect the closures to accelerate and go beyond those initially identified by RFG given the deterioration in underlying performance and pressure with the Michel's structure, in particular,"  Mr Rogers said.
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"A successful repositioning of Michel's and deceleration of closures would be the most likely potential change to our view, but it is difficult to have confidence in this scenario after network sales fell 22 per cent in (the December-half)," he said,</div>
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"We now forecast about 460 net outlet closures over the next 2.5 years (36 per cent closure of current domestic portfolio partially offset by about 100 net openings in the international division) and have lowered margins in each division to account for an expected change in the value split between RFG and franchisees."
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