Tim Lawless

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The vast majority of properties sold nationwide to September 2015 did so at a profit, with 91.6% of sales over the quarter selling at a profit, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.
The report found the total value of this profit was recorded at $17.3 billion, with the average gross profit $265,605. 
According to the report some 8.4% of all homes resold recorded a gross loss when compared to their previous purchase price; the lowest proportion of loss-making resales since December 2014.
"This figure was lower than the 9.2% over the June 2015 quarter and also lower than the 8.9% recorded a year ago. Across those dwellings which resold at a loss over the quarter, the total value of loss was $376.2 million with an average loss of $63,221," it noted.
"Nationally there was $376.2 million in realised losses over the quarter at an average of $63,221 and $17.3 billion in realised profit at an average of $265,605.
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"Across the capital cities, there were $193.5 million in losses with an average of $71,996 per loss-making resale compared to $14.4 billion in profit at an average of $324,887. The combined regional areas recorded $182.7 million in losses at an average of $55,996 compared to $2.9 billion in profit at an average of $139,798. The average losses were greater in the capital cities, however they also generally experienced much greater profits, more than double those in regional areas."
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The proportion of loss making resales is lower than the financial crisis peak nationwide with the exception of Darwin to September 2015, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.
The report found loss-making resales lower in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Hobart, higher in Perth and Darwin and flat in Adelaide and Canberra and said values growing sharply in Sydney and Melbourne over the year with moderate value growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and values falling in Perth and Darwin. 
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Proportion of loss-making resales lower than the financial crisis peak: Tim Lawless CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain national

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December 2016 saw capital city dwelling values rise by 1.4%, taking the annual capital gain for 2016 to 10.9%; the highest growth rate for a calendar year since 2009.
Factoring in gross rental yields and capital gains, housing as an asset class, earned a total annual return of 14.7% based on the combined capital cities index results.
Across Australia’s capital cities, the annual change in dwelling values for 2016 ranged from -4.3% in Perth to 15.5% in Sydney, with Melbourne and Hobart also showing annual capital gains higher than 10%.
Capital city growth rates have also shown a growing divergence between the broad housing product types.
Over the past twelve months we have seen capital city house values rise by 11.6%, while unit values have increased by roughly half the pace at 5.9%.
The divergence in growth rates is the most distinct in Melbourne and Brisbane, where concerns around unit oversupply have eroded buyer confidence.
Melbourne house values are up 15.1% over the year compared with a 1.7% rise in unit values, while Brisbane house values are 4.0% higher over the year, with unit values falling by -0.2%.
Australia’s regional housing markets generally did not experience the same growth conditions as the capital cities, with annual growth to November recorded at 2.8% across the combined regional markets. Regional New South Wales showed the strongest growth conditions, with non-capital city house values rising 7.3% over the 12 month period to November 2016.
The remaining rest-of-state regions showed relatively sedate conditions, with values rising by half a per cent across regional Victoria, 1% across regional Queensland and 1.1% across regional South Australia. Regional Western Australia recorded a 7% fall in house values over the year. Those regional areas with intrinsic ties to the mining and resources sector have continued to record weaker housing market conditions since the end of the mining infrastructure boom, with Perth and Darwin recording the weakest housing market conditions across the capital cities.
Since values peaked in these markets during 2014, values have fallen by a cumulative 7.9% in Perth and 5.9% in Darwin.
More recently both these markets have shown signs of moving through the low point of their respective downturns, with values rising by 2.8% and 5.9% respectively over the final quarter of 2016.
Based on the annual housing market results, it is clear that housing markets across Australia have responded to regional differences in economic and demographic trends; strong population growth and economic activity have driven value growth in Sydney and Melbourne, however, more recently strong growth trends have spread to Hobart and Canberra, as well as many of the coastal and lifestyle markets where values are now also rising swiftly.
Post Global Financial Crisis, the CoreLogic index results show that Sydney’s dwelling values have almost doubled, rising by 97.5% since January 2009, whilst Melbourne dwelling values have increased by 83.5% over the same time frame.
Every other capital city has seen dwelling values rise at substantially lower rates over this period, highlighting just how strong the Sydney and Melbourne housing market conditions have been over the past eight years.
Sydney-siders saw dwelling values increase by approximately $10,000 per month over the past year, creating a significant boost in wealth for home owners; at the same time we’ve seen mounting affordability challenges for aspiring home owners.
The recent CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report shows Sydney dwelling prices were 8.3 times higher than annual household incomes and households were dedicating an average of 44.5% of their income to service a mortgage (based on an 80% loan to valuation ratio and the average discounted variable mortgage rate).
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia.
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2016 dwelling value growth rates divergent even within the same capital city: Corelogic's Tim Lawless

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Melbourne’s housing market is more resilient to a slowdown compared to Sydney, according to CoreLogic’s latest update report.
The property data firm says that price growth conditions are starting to ease.
For more information see the video below:
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Melbourne housing update: Tim Lawless sees price growth conditions ease

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Adelaide dwelling values held over June quarter, according to CoreLogic’s latest update report.
The property data firm says that however the unit sector’s performance fell over the quarter.
For more information see the video below:
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Adelaide housing market update: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
CoreLogic’s recently released Pain and Gain report highlighted a growing divergence between houses and units for loss making resales. 
Unit markets recorded a higher proportion of loss making resales relative to houses across every broad region of Australia over the June quarter.  
The latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report provides a summary of gross profit and loss making resales across the country. The results show a consistent and long underperformance across the unit sector, and more recently, a growing divergence between the proportion of houses and units reselling at a gross loss. The June quarter report revealed that 14.3% of units that resold across the capital cities transacted at a gross loss; roughly double the rate of loss making house resales. Across the combined regional areas of Australia, loss making unit resales comprised 16.1% of transactions while a lower 10.3% of houses resold at a gross loss.
Every capital city and rest of state region across the country has seen the unit sector record a larger proportion of loss making sales across the unit sector compared with detached housing, however the differential is substantial in those cities where unit values have fallen more materially.
Across the capital cities, Darwin stands out as showing the highest proportion of loss making unit resales, with 71% of units reselling at a loss over the June quarter. Considering Darwin unit values have fallen 44% since peaking in May 2010, the high rate of loss on resales should come as no surprise; in fact Darwin unit values are back to the same level they were in February 2005. Darwin house values haven’t fall any where near as much, down 11% since peaking.  
Regional Western Australia has recorded the second highest level of loss making resales for units (56.7%) followed by Perth at 47.8%. Both regions have seen unit values fall substantially more than house values. Since peaking in January 2008, regional WA unit values are down 47.5% and are now back to levels seen in 1988. In Perth, unit values are 18.2% lower after peaking in July 2013 and are now worth the same value as they were in May 2006.
Amongst the capital cities, Brisbane also stood out for a high rate of loss making unit resales, with 29.2% transacting at a gross loss over the quarter compared with only 4.1% of houses selling at a gross loss. Brisbane unit values are back to where they were in August 2007 after declining by 10.8% from their 2008 peak.  
The lowest rates of loss making unit resales were in those regions where unit values have shown more buoyant conditions. Hobart recorded the lowest portion of loss making unit resales, with only 2.9% reselling at a gross loss over the June quarter. Hobart unit values are at a record high after recording solid capital gains over the past few years. It was only five years ago, after a long period of weak housing market conditions, when 25% of Hobart units were reselling at a gross loss.  
The Sydney unit market was showing the second lowest proportion of loss making unit resales over the June quarter. Despite rising levels of unit supply, only 3.5% of Sydney units resold at a gross loss over the quarter. Unit values are down 2.6% since peaking in November last year, and values remain 43% higher relative to five years ago. With a recent history of such strong capital gains, the vast majority of Sydney unit owners are still in a positive value position relative to their purchase price, however as values continue to slip lower and supply levels rise, we are likely to see loss making resales rise.
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There are a variety of factors that could be contributing to the higher proportion of loss making sales across the unit market. 
For starters, units are more likely to be owned by investors. Around 68% of units are investor owned, 51% of townhouses are owned by investors and only 22% of houses.  CoreLogic Pain and Gain data shows investor owned dwellings have a higher propensity to resell at a loss which is probably attributable to the fact that investors can take advantage of taxation benefits such as offsetting their losses against future capital gains.  
Unit markets can be more prone to oversupply. This trend has been evident across the Brisbane and Melbourne inner city markets to different extents.  Focusing on some of the key inner city unit markets, Brisbane’s inner city recorded 32% of unit resales at a loss over the quarter and Melbourne’s inner city recorded 22% at a loss. Unit construction has been winding down across Queensland since late 2016, but remains at record levels across Victoria and close to record highs in New South Wales. With unit values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne and the pipeline at, or close to record highs, its likely that loss making resales will diverge further in these markets.
There is also the factor of the underlying land value. Even though dwelling values are sliding in some markets, land prices have generally held firm or continued to trend higher.  Detached houses have a stronger relationship with land values which is likely contributing to the long run trend of higher capital gains for houses relative to units.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%202.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
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Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team
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Unit owners are more likely to record a loss at sale: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The seasonal surge in listing numbers is well underway, with fresh listings being added to the market up 16% relative to the end of winter, however, despite the upswing in new listings, fresh stock additions are tracking almost 4% lower than the at the same time a year ago to be at their lowest seasonal level since 2012. 
The low level of new listing numbers can be attributed to weak vendor confidence; no surprise given housing market conditions have weakened and selling conditions have become more challenging.
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Although freshly advertised stock is low, total advertised listing numbers have been trending higher as the rate of absorption slows. In fact, if the current trend continues, we will see the number of properties available for sale exceed the recent 2012 peak in total advertised stock levels. Total listing numbers are 10.2% higher than year ago and at their highest level for this time of the year since 2012.
The rise in total listing numbers isn’t due to a panicked surge in new listings. This is more about less demand which is causing a rise in relisting’s along with longer selling times and fewer successful sales at auction.
 
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The typical capital city dwelling sold by private treaty is now taking 53 days to sell compared with 42 days a year ago and discounting rates have risen to an average of 6.5%, up from 6.0% a year ago.
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More stock means more choice for buyers and harder selling condition for vendors – essentially abuyers’ market. Buyers have little sense of urgency under these conditions; they can negotiate hard, take their time to make a purchase decision, and if they feel a property price doesn’t reflect fairvalue, they can easily move onto the next property option.
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With so much competing stock on the market, vendors will need to be reasonable with their pricing expectations and ensure their marketing campaign is as effective as possible in order to stand out from other stock for sale.
Tim Lawless is the national research director of CoreLogic RP Data and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
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Buyers back in the driver's seat as stock levels surge to highest levels since 2012

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Overall, it’s hard to see a scenario where Australian housing values could fall off a cliff.
For this to happen we would need to see a material about face in labour market conditions, a global shock or a material rise in interest rates– none of which seems to be a likely outcome at the moment.
Without a doubt, housing risks are heighted relative to a year ago. Dwelling values are slipping lower nationally (down 2% since peaking in September last year), mortgage rates are edging higher (up by around 15 basis points from three of the four major banks announcing a rate rise in September) and mortgage arrears have moved off their record lows (but still only around 0.6% of all mortgages are 90+ days in arrears). All this against a backdrop of record high levels of household debt (the ratio of disposable income to household debt reached 190% in March this year), increasing levels of housing supply and rising domestic and global uncertainty.
It should come as no surprise that some commentators are forecasting a substantial reduction in dwelling values. We saw similar forecasts during previous downturns from the likes of Steven Keen, Harry Dent and Jeremey Grantham as well as many others. The most recent dire prediction to get mainstream airplay was from Martin North predicting a 40-45% fall in dwelling values; albeit with only a 20% chance of this occurring. Since airing on 60Minutes, the segment titled ‘Bricks and Slaughter’ has seen the two primary experts featured, Martin North and Louie Christopher, clarifying their televised comments which were apparently presented in an unbalanced context: a presentation of the worst case scenario with no regard for the most likely outcome.
If we look at the current downturn in Australian housing, the trajectory of decline is actually quite unremarkable.
Australia’s largest housing market, Sydney, has seen values fall by 5.6% sincepeaking in July last year; a trajectory that is straight down the middle of previous downturns. During the GFC, Sydney dwelling values fell by 7.0% in the space of twelve months, and the downturn before that (2003-2006) saw values fall 7.1% over the same number of months.
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Australia’s second largest city, Melbourne, has seen values falling since November last year. Since that time the market is down a cumulative 3.5% and the descent has generally been milder relative to previous downturns.
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Even in markets where values have been falling consistently for more than four years on the back of a material weakening in economic and demographicconditions, we haven’t seen values fall by anywhere near 40%. Perth dwellingvalues peaked in 2014 and have fallen by 12.6% and in Darwin where conditions have been even tougher, dwelling values are down 21.8%.
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Recently released housing value forecasts from Moody’s Analytics certainly paints a less gloomy picture of housing markets over the coming years. While, growth is forecast to be subdued relative to previous years, the forecast is for a relatively mild downturn, with national house and unit values returning to mild positive annual growth by the middle of 2019.
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The Moody’s Analytics forecasts are based on an econometric model whichuses CoreLogic’s Hedonic Index data as a base to forecast from. Their upbeat assessment of dwelling values is based on rising business investment, particularly in the non-mining sector, a rise in infrastructure spending, above trend jobs growth, and ongoing low interest rates.
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Of course the outlook for housing conditions is varied across the regions. Bythe end of 2019, Moody’s is expecting every capital city except Hobart (-2.4%) to record a positive annual change in house values, with year on year rises ranging from 4.5% in Canberra and Adelaide to a 0.9% rise in Perth dwelling values.
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Forecasting the movement in asset values is challenging at the best of times. With so much uncertainty at the moment it’s even harder. Several wildcards remain that could have a negative impact on the direction of housing values.
Households are more sensitive than ever to interest rate movements due to the record level of household debt. Roughly, 70% of household debt is housing related, which implies small changes to mortgage rates could have an amplified impact on household balance sheets. Further out of cycle movements in mortgage interest rates could have a negative impact on the market. On the flipside, if the RBA decides to cut the cash rate further (a possible scenario of economic conditions weakened and housing price falls accelerated), this would likely see a rise in housing activity and help to place a floor under housing prices.
There is also the potential for changes to property taxation policies that could have a further dampening effect on investment demand. Based on the value of new housing finance commitments, investors still comprise around 41% of mortgage demand, down from 55% in mid-2015. Investor concentrations remain well above their long term averages across New South Wales (49% of housing finance commitments) and Victoria (41% of housing finance commitments), implying Sydney and Melbourne would have more to lose if investor activity were to drop more substantially. Investors are already being disincentivised by falling prices, mortgage rate premiums and low rental yields; additional disincentives from tax reform could see demand reduce further, creating some slack in the overall demand composition for Australian housing.
In balance, even with mortgage rates edging higher, we are still in the lowestmortgage rate environment since the 1960’s. Population growth remainsstrong and maintaining a consistent migration policy seems to have support from both sides of politics which will continue to support demand for housing. Labour markets are reasonably healthy with unemployment holding at 5.3% and likely to trend lower, underemployment at the lowest rate since May 2014 and jobs growth above the long term trend.
Overall, it’s hard to see a scenario where Australian housing values could fall off a cliff. For this to happen we would need to see a material about face in labour market conditions, a global shock or a material rise in interest rates –none of which seems to be a likely outcome at the moment.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
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Is the property market really all that bad? CoreLogic's Tim Lawless

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Higher priced properties in Sydney and Melbourne is not the only obstacle stopping people from entering these markets.
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Varying from state to state, another factor contributing to the high entry cost to housing is Stamp Duty, particularly in Australia’s largest two capital cities.
Levied by each state and territory and payable by the receiver when a property is transferred, stamp duty varies remarkably across the states and territories based on the price of the property, the type of buyer (owner occupier / first home buyer / investor) and the type of property. 
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “Calculating how much stamp duty is applicable on a property purchase can be confusing due to the significant differences regionally, but also due to the complexity of rules, concessions and limits that are applied to the calculation of stamp duty.” 
Based on the median dwelling value across each capital city, stamp duty estimates can range from a whopping $32,680 in Melbourne to a modest $9,000 in Brisbane.
<h3>Median dwelling value</h3>
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Mr Lawless said, “Even though the median dwelling value is $200,000 higher in Sydney compared with Melbourne, the cost of stamp duty on the median valued home is actually slightly lower in Sydney, at $31,763, due to higher stamp duty rates in Victoria.”
<h3>Estimated stamp duty payable on median value dwelling</h3>
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In some states, first-time home buyers can be offered substantial concessions on stamp duty; however there is generally an upper limit. 
For example, first home buyer property transactions in Victoria with a price tag of $600,000 or less will enjoy a 50% reduction on their rate of stamp duty. 
In Queensland, first home buyers purchasing a property priced less than $550,000 can realise a discount of more than $8,000.
Stamp duty rates can also be higher for investors. 
Surprisingly, Mr Lawless observed that New South Wales, which is the state with the largest proportion of investors, does not charge a premium rate of stamp duty on this segment of the market.
The three largest states also charge a stamp duty premium on property purchasers by foreign buyers.
He said, “Because stamp duty costs are percentage based, as dwelling values move higher, stamp duty costs can rise disproportionately faster due to bracket creep. 
Over the past five years dwelling values in these two cities have increased by 62% and 38% respectively which implies at least a commensurate rise in stamp duty costs in these cities.
The high transactional costs associated with housing are likely to be one factor that is contributing to a slowdown in the number of sales across the country.” 
While stamp duty is generally the largest transactional cost associated with buying, there are other costs such as building and pest inspections, conveyancing, removalists and more that also need to be factored in and are likely to be dampening participation in the housing market. 
Mr Lawless said, “Add to this the fact that most lenders will be seeking a 20% deposit and the barriers to entry become even more substantial.”
For state governments, stamp duty is one of the largest revenue sources. 
In the 2014-15 financial year, state and local government taxation revenue was recorded at $89.278 billion having increased by 7.0% over the year. 
The taxation revenue was comprised of $45.203 billion or 50.6% from property related taxes (mostly stamp duty and municipal rates). 
While total tax revenue increased 7.0% over the year, property tax revenue increased by 10.5% highlighting that property taxes are the largest source of taxation revenue for state and local governments and are rising at a rapid pace.
Mr Lawless said, “If transaction numbers across the housing market continue to trend lower, state governments are likely to encounter a budget hole as stamp duty revenue falls.   
For this and associated reasons, we may find state governments become more serious about considering a broader based land tax that is applicable to all property owners rather than a stamp duty that is payable only across the small percentage of properties that transact each year.”
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Stamp duty an obstacle for first home buyers entering the market

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Sydney’s housing market is showing signs of a controlled slowdown, according to CoreLogic’s latest July update.
The property data firm says that clearance rates are trending lower and time on market is starting to edge upwards.
For more information see the video below:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p3ABSDStcnc" frameborder="0" width="450" height="253"></iframe>
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Sydney housing market's controlled slowdown update: Tim Lawless

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Brisbane’s housing market capital gains is subdued, but sustainable, according to CoreLogic’s latest update report.
The property data firm says that rise in house values compensating a fall in unit values takes Brisbane’s annual growth rate into 2%.
For more information see the video below:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o2xJhQxU5uc" frameborder="0" width="450" height="253"></iframe>
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Tim Lawless

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