Tax Reform

EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

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An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

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Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

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Shelter WA recommends the Australian Government to appoint a Minister for Housing and Urban Development with the responsibility of coordinating decision-making across government. In their submission for the Inquiry into Home Ownership, Shelter WA recommended this coordination to be mirrored at the state level.
"Affordable housing is a structural issue, which needs to be addressed at a structural level through tax reform, employment growth and urban and regional development.
"While the affordability crisis in WA is less extreme than in some other areas of the country, housing remains unaffordable for many Western Australians. In WA, six times the median annual income is required to purchase a home at the median price (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, 2014). 
"This is up from 3.6 times the annual income which was required to purchase a dwelling in WA in 2001. Between 2006 and 2011, mortgage repayments in Perth increased by 54% and rents increased by 78%, while incomes only increased by 34% (Australians for Affordable Housing, 2012). 
"The household debt to income ratio has tripled over the past two decades (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, 2015). This includes mortgage debt as well as personal loans, credit cards and student loans."
In the submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Shelter WA also suggested that a study should be conducted on the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on home purchase affordability and on the rental market. 
Also, utilising the revenue obtained from potential reforms negative gearing and capital gains discounts to improve tax incentives for investment in new affordable rentals.
"Owners are entitled to a fair return on their investment, however government policies should only provide incentives to investors that contribute to affordable rental accommodation. 
"The ACT Government is phasing out stamp duties over the next twenty years, noting that this would support their agenda of making taxes ‘fairer, simpler and more efficient’ (ACT Government Treasury, 2014). 
"Shelter WA strongly supports the recommendations made in the Henry Review and the final report of the Senate Inquiry into Affordable Housing to abolish stamp duty and introduce a broad-based land tax over a transitional period. 
Another recommendation from Shelter WA is that State Governments continually review and reform planning processes to achieve a planning system that facilitates affordable housing. 
"Planning laws can encourage or inhibit the supply of new housing, including affordable home ownership. Initiatives to increase affordability include removing zoning and planning regulations, which prohibit smaller dwellings, and providing incentives to developers to provide affordable housing in new developments.
Shelter WA is concerned that the current system is not focused on the delivery of affordable housing.
"Recent changes to Development Assessment Panels (DAPs) made it easy for developers to bypass local government planning, through new opt-in thresholds. While this may streamline approval times, this process may actually be detrimental to achieving better affordable housing outcomes. 
"For instance, developers could use DAPs to side step a more stringent local government planning approvals process with affordable housing requirements. 
"Shelter WA is encouraged by the WA Department of Housing’s programs, which are aimed at making home ownership more accessible for low and moderate income households. These programs include shared equity schemes and Keystart loans, which report lower default rates than commercial lenders. 
"Since its inception, Keystart has assisted 85,000 Western Australians transition into home ownership. Since 2011, 1,029 families purchased a home through the SharedStart program, via co-ownership with the Housing Authority and Keystart home loans. 
"[Shelter WA] Support the continued development of shared equity programs, such as those administered by Keystart in WA, and other alternative home loan mechanisms. 
After conducting a joined survey with Aboriginal Legal Service of WA (ALSWA) in 2010, Shelter WA was able to identify 92% of respondents agreeing that 'stability and security, being settled' was a benefit of home ownership. The second most popular response was, 'freedom to make decisions about my home and who I live with'. 
"Respondents identified several risks to home ownership, with 87% selecting the primary drawback as 'interest rate rises lead to higher mortgage payments that people might not be able to afford'. 
"Additional comments included, 'restriction to lifestyle and stress about mortgage', 'Indigenous Business Australia (IBA) loans do not allow for refurbishment or additional loans to do the house up'and 'Process too long and restrictive'. 
"Qualitative research indicates that for some Indigenous Australians the positive social attributes of home ownership, such as being able to pass the house down in the family, are more important than the potential short-term financial benefits. 
"Intergenerational asset building for future generations and housing security are the primary motivators driving these aspirations. 
"For the benefits of home ownership to be fully realised, it is imperative that programs exist to educate Aboriginal peoples about home ownership and the obligations it entails. It is also essential that culturally appropriate support is available to assist Aboriginal peoples meet these obligations where necessary. 
"We cautioned against extending credit to people who do not have the means to make the necessary payments. Extending credit to low income people who cannot afford to service a loan of the size necessary to secure appropriate housing, without providing them with the tools and resources they need to repay the loan, sets them up for failure. 
"One of the major barriers to private home ownership in remote communities is the legal nature of community-title land. In our submission, Shelter WA and ALSWA did not support transferring community-title land to individual free hold land in order to promote individual home ownership. 
"Such transfers would dilute community-title, native title interests and communities’ rights to self- determination, and would remove the strength of land held in perpetuity for the benefit of the local peoples. 
"The recent announcement of the cessation of Federal and State funding to some remote communities in WA may have a significant impact on housing outcomes in those communities and surrounding areas. 
Shelter WA's final recommendation is that the Commonwealth and State and Territory Governments share joint responsibility for Aboriginal housing. 
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National housing call for new government housing development minister

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Prosper Australia does not believe in the home ownership problem being due to lack of housing supply, rather data has been wrongly analysed and a tax reform should be put in place.
"A good way to examine whether an adequate supply of housing exists is to compare the flow of new dwellings to new net population. Many analyses simply look at the relative or absolute change in dwelling stock, which is pointless without first considering changes in population."
Prosper Australia understands several factors have not been taken into consideration. For example, the total population measure is used, when only adults should be considered.
"An increase in the natural population through births doesn’t automatically necessitate new dwellings be built, though it may result in families upgrading to larger dwellings. 
"Renovations and extensions of existing dwellings are overlooked, but generate additional housing capacity. Many immigrants arrive in groups, initially requiring only one dwelling per family/shared household. 
"Building completions do not take into consideration dwellings that are demolished, condemned or held off the market. The slow rise in sole occupant households, divorce and/or childless couples (demographic change) may drive a long-run trend toward lower occupancy rates in general.
"The inadequacy of the housing shortage argument is apparent for the trend in the NSW ratio. Sydney, which dominates the state’s housing market, experienced a massive price boom between 1996 and 2004, yet over this period, one new dwelling was built for every 1.4 new people.  
"At the peak in 2004, the ratio decreased to an insane 0.2. In other states and territories, the ratio turned negative, indicating negative population growth in the face of positive dwelling construction, even while prices remained steady or even rising.
"Australia would be much better served if investor attention was refocussed onto genuine investment that added to our national capacity and strength rather than idle ticket-clipping. 
"In conclusion, there is no housing shortage as is commonly claimed, though a temporary shortage did emerge during the GFC. Australia is a mirror of other countries where high housing prices were also blamed on a shortage, always revealed, in hindsight, to be a chimera."
In the submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Prosper Australia recommended the Government to introduce a one per cent Federal Land Tax, fully rebatable on State Land Tax paid. 
"State governments could adjust their tax rules and keep every dollar the Federal Land Tax raises, to the great benefit of all Australians. The Commonwealth would be entitled to argue this intervention is for sound economic reasons and dissipate the political fallout.  
"Few state taxes have such economically useful and dynamic properties, except State Land Tax, which rises and retreats with land price changes. This rare and valuable quality is masked by biennial land valuations. 
"Prosper recommends government revalue all land annually, by interpolation. This is quite straightforward with computer-assisted mass appraisal. The economic benefit of this automatic stabiliser function is profound in eras of rapidly rising or falling land prices. 
"Reducing wage and business taxation and increasing land tax would not necessarily lower land prices, given the offset of increased final wages, profits, and real and imputed rents. This macro reform – urged on government by every independent tax review in living memory – would solidly correct the price/income and price/rent ratios. 
"Transitional arrangements would need to be considered. A logical solution is to credit all landowners with the amount of stamp duty paid and then deduct the hypothetical land tax they would have paid since the date of purchase. This would address much of the fairness question."
Prosper Australia claims that stamp duty deters property transactions and innovation.
"It inhibits the transfer of property to higher value uses, resulting in an inefficient allocation of resources. 
"This transaction tax falls on both land and buildings, whereas land tax falls solely on the underlying land. Thus, stamp duty lifts the cost of and constrains construction and construction employment. 
"Stamp duty inhibits transactions. If removed, we would see more and better construction, lower rents, better matching of households to housing stock, a greater propensity to buy (on ease of exit), less traffic congestion, and a deeper, more active land market.
"Prosper commends the Henry Review recommendation to tax on a per square meter basis, rather than aggregating holdings. The flatter the rate schedule, the less significance this question holds. 
"The proposed property tax should fall solely and utterly on the underlying land. Taxing structures discourages construction; land cannot be discouraged, it simply is."
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Home ownership data wrongly analysed: Prosper Australia

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We would all love a dollar every time the words “tax reform” have been mentioned over the past decade with countless inquiries and white papers presented where no reform ever eventuated.
So it was most interesting to see Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and freshly appointed Treasurer Scott Morrison flagging tax reform, income tax cuts and housing affordability again, much like that broken record of their many predecessors.
Yes the Australian economy has its fair share of problems much like the rest of the developed countries across the planet where the common problem is that they are their own worst enemies. The last major tax reform in Australia was the introduction of the GST back in 2000 where 15 years on the taxes and duties that were promised to be removed still remain in place. So it should come as no surprise that the NSW Premier Mike Baird is leading the debate on the GST being increased to 15 per cent.
Back in February 2015 I wrote about abolishing payroll tax to kick start the economy, so high on Malcolm Turnbull’s to – do list should be the abolition of payroll tax on the basis that each business then injects into their business over the next financial year the amount previously paid in payroll tax.
At last month’s Australian Financial Review Tax Reform Summit Malcolm Turnbull effectively put superannuation tax, negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions back on the discussion table. Respected economist Saul Eslake referred to Australia’s tax system as being a “giant Swiss cheese” riddled with holes that allow the wealthy to pay less tax through minimisation strategies. Based on those observations we can expect an intense debate in coming months where previous governments chose to side – step these issues as they were too contentious. We also need to bear in mind that we are approximately twelve months out from a federal election – so how will such a debate go down with voters?
Current Australian Bureau of Statistics projections have the Australian population growing at approximately 4 million people per decade, which places Australia with the fastest rate of population growth in the developed world. Sydney and Melbourne can expect an additional 100,000 new arrivals annually for the next 40 years which in itself requires massive planning although this may further explain the recent Federal portfolio announcement creating the Cities and Built Environment portfolio.
So now Australia’s tax reform discussion has begun in earnest although given the sheer magnitude that explains why this debate has been deferred for decades. Prior to the next Federal Election we can expect to be inundated with discussion groups and scare campaigns although nothing will really happen (if we do get tax reform) until the 2019 Federal Election given such reforms take years to plan then execute.
In the meantime if we are looking for clues we should note with interest that Scott Morrison has just appointed Phil Gaetjens as his chief of staff which should not be too much of a challenge as he was Peter Costello’s chief of staff from 1997 to 2007. Yes one of the key architects for the GST introduction 15 years ago so it really doesn’t require much joining of the dots to see what picture will appear on the canvas.
Although this time around if there is to be any reform the Australian voters will demand that the states and territories commit to honoring their word when it comes to removing taxes and duties in lieu of increasing the GST to 15 per cent. Somehow many are of the opinion that the states and territories will never agree to take payroll tax and stamp duties from their respective cash registers.
‘ The tax reform debate really needs to start at Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting and wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall when the Prime Minister and Treasurer outline their bold tax reform agendas.
In NSW we are witnessing the amalgamation of councils because the state government is not happy with them, believing amalgamation will lead to more developments (land tax and stamp duties) – which it certainly will. So with Australia’s biggest ever tax reform finally now plated up on the table they might as well look at the three – tier – governments too.
Make that two as the council amalgamations have already been decided – just not announced.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 61
• Number of houses on the market last week – 51
• Number of houses on the market this week – 48
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 52
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 5
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 21
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 23
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
•Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 43
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 28
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 21
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Times change, sadly politicians haven’t: Robert Simeon

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When I keep thinking about the possible ramifications with Bill Shorten’s tax reform announcements I shake my head with utter disbelief – this is just plain dumb policy. Since the mining boom collapsed property has been a major shining light for the Australian economy.
By announcing that from July 1, 2017 negative gearing will only apply to new properties, the argument that 93 per cent of negative gearing goes to existing properties is a flawed one. Many suburbs see very few new developments each year so it’s those existing properties that add equilibrium to keeping rents competitive.
It should also be noted that it was not mentioned that with the new properties that there would be no adjustments to the previous Labor policy in 2008 that permits 100 per cent of off – the – plan purchases to foreign owners. What we are seeing today is new developments being offered off shore and many properties never hit the local market with many of these properties being land banked. It should also be legislated that all off – the – plan foreign purchases must be rented out with all properties that are currently land banked to be issued with a divestment order unless they are rented out.
What I believe will happen with negative gearing is that we will see a cap put on the number of properties that are allowed to be claimed as well as a limit to annual tax deductions that can be claimed. In the meantime one could expect property investors to be front and centre in the markets prior to the upcoming Budget announcements.
It is becoming pretty obvious that it will be some time before the Australian budget gets itself back in the black – more particularly now that an increase to the GST has been formally pooh – poohed.
Instead of looking at increasing taxes maybe the federal Government would be better suited to looking at what it can do with its massive property portfolio to pay down more debt. The Australian Government is the largest property landlord in Australia with property holdings across the country.
HMAS Penguin for example which occupies some prime Middle Harbour front land is just one of thousands of examples of land that could be put to much better economic use. Now before you start yelling and screaming all I am saying is that the federal Government should be taking a closer look at its property portfolio with a view to possibly cashing – in. The NSW Government has been active over the past few years selling off Housing Commission properties that has eventuated in quadrupling budget expectations on the likely market values.
Australia’s population hit 24,000,000 this week so it makes plenty of sense to start a conversation on how our cities are going to cope with this rapid expansion. Public golf courses will come under huge pressure to remain with their respective land values going through the roof. Although before we see those being developed the federal Government has thousands and thousands of hectares of vacant land sitting idle.
No doubt some will say it’s time to put Australia’s land resources to better and more practical use and many will say it should remain as it is. One would have to admit that it would be an interesting debate. The Australian population clock now adds one extra person to our population every one minute and 31 seconds. On top of that we also have record net overseas migration. Our population growth is now higher than that of Indonesia.
The reality is that we need to start developing more land, so that conversation should start with Australia’s biggest landlord.
No time like the present to start this long overdue conversation.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 79
• Number of houses on the market last week – 53
• Number of houses on the market this week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 52
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 46 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 44
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 17
• Number of houses on the market this week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 17
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 22
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
•Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 38
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 27
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 28
 
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property is the gift that keeps on giving: Robert Simeon

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Get ready Australia. The Prime Minister announced this week his road map for tax reforms that he proposes to take to the next election.
No need to guess what the centrepiece will be – look no further than a 5% increase to the GST. This will be very hard to achieve given when the GST was introduced in 2000 the states and territories immediately reneged on their agreement to abolish duty taxes, so we can rightly expect that they will never renege again.
The problem facing Malcolm Turnbull is that the states and territories want more money and the federal government can’t fund this through their tax receipts. For years I have argued that (in the case of NSW for example) the state government is the biggest dead weight on the NSW economy.
Stamp duties, insurance duties, pay roll tax... the list goes on. For well over the past decade we have read tax paper after tax paper recommending the removal of these taxes although (until now) this has been ignored by federal politicians.
A report released this week by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling identified that the current 10% GST consumes 13.4% of disposable income for those in the bottom fifth of households, so a further rise in the GST would see this figure jump to 20%. Households in the top 20% would experience a much softer impact where this currently sits at 5.9% and after an increase the new figure would come in at around 8.8%.
For obvious reasons this analysis is going to make the sales pitch for an increase in GST all the much harder when Australians go to the polls around this time next year. Banking economist Saul Eslake announced this week that “Australia’s home ownership rate is actually the lowest it’s been since 1954.” So to fix this, negative gearing will come under much greater scrutiny as established home prices continue to rise. Let’s face it – Australia’s entire tax system is a mess, broken and in urgent need of major surgery.
The Turnbull government will need to also look at the benefits of allowing 100% of new developments to be sold off shore – up until December 2008, the previous restriction was 50%. Two of the big ticket items in the “rivers of gold” are Stamp Duty on residential housing and payroll tax – where we are now seeing clear evidence of what impact these duty/taxes are having on the economy.
If you look at the Mosman house market in 2011/12/13 there were on a weekly basis 75 occasions where there were more than 100 houses on the market. In 2014 the 100 barrier was broken on 14 occasions and in 2015 the market is yet to break 100 where we can all but guarantee Mosman will not break 100 in 2015.
NSW is currently drowning in wage stagnation which highlights why voters will be hard pressed to approve a 5 per cent increase to the GST. Pay roll tax for decades has been referred to as the most insidious tax – so by abolishing pay roll tax employers can then pay their respective staff more which then improves wage stagnation.
No doubt there will be many other opinions as to what is required to finally correct Australia’s taxing imbalances. We can rest assured that over the next twelve months we will be thrown many fascinating and troublesome alternatives for deliberation.
The Turnbull government should also be looking at the overall effect of simply removing the middle – tier of government given the duplication of departments that exist in both state and territories and Canberra. Maybe the time has arrived to simply remove the state and territory governments and thus broaden the responsibilities of the local governments.
Maybe the NSW government has identified that it’s vulnerable so it is moving quickly to amalgamate the councils and then alleviate any such scrutiny?
Whatever happens the next twelve months will unveil debates that we Australians have never before witnessed given the magnitude of this long overdue assignment.
Australia’s Prime Minister is more than capable of handling the task ahead – the people aren’t the problem it’s the politicians who have created this. The time has arrived to set an example once and for all – Australia’s road map for tax reforms has finally been given a new engine and a set of wheels.
Just don’t crash it PM.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 105
• Number of houses on the market last week – 64
• Number of houses on the market this week – 75
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 76
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 17
• Number of houses on the market last week – 14
• Number of houses on the market this week – 12
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 17
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
•Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 31
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 30
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Australia’s greatest ever sales pitch? Robert Simeon

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A large proportion of any cut in personal income tax - especially if the cuts were skewed towards lower and middle-income households with a higher propensity to spend - would likely provide a greater direct stimulus to the Australian economy than an equivalent cut in company tax.
Cutting personal income taxes seems likely to provide much more of a boost to the Australian economy than cutting company income tax. <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/analysis-of-the-long-term-effects-of-a-company-tax-cut/" target="_blank">As the government’s own published modelling</a> shows, the benefits of its proposed cuts to the company income tax rate are small relative to their cost.
<h2>Do we need income tax cuts to provide relief from financial hardship?</h2>
<blockquote>
The treasurer and I have been working on how we can provide more tax relief for hard-working middle income Australian families.
</blockquote>
- Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Over the last five years, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5206.0Main+Features1Dec%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">household spending has grown</a> by just 2.6% per annum in real terms, on average - of which more than half has been the result of population growth - compared with an average of 3.6% per annum over the preceding 12 years. Even with that lower growth rate in their spending, households have reduced their saving rate, from around 7% of disposable income five years ago to around 2.5% in 2017. That’s the lowest saving rate since before the financial crisis.
The key reason for this “squeeze” on household spending and saving is of course the ongoing weakness in the growth rate of household disposable income. Over the past five years, real per capita household disposable income has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.4%, compared with an average of 2.6% per annum over the preceding 12 years.
One reason for this is that Australian households have been paying an increasing proportion of their income in taxes. In the years prior to the onset of the financial crisis, almost every budget included personal income tax cuts in some form or other.
By contrast, there have been no changes to Australia’s <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Rates/Individual-income-tax-rates/" target="_blank">personal income tax scale</a> since 2008 - apart from the increase in the tax-free threshold (paid for by an increase in the bottom rate) in 2012, the temporary surcharge on top-rate taxpayers which applied between 2014-15 and 2016-17, and the increase in the threshold for the second-top rate (from A$80,000 to A$87,000) which took effect in the 2016-17 financial year.
As a result, in 2017, Australian households in aggregate paid 19.5% of their taxable incomes in income and other direct taxes - the highest proportion since 2005, and continuing a steady rise since 2011.
Households are also spending almost two and a quarter percentage points more of their after-tax disposable incomes on education, health, insurance and other financial services, and utilities than they did five years ago.
Given all this, it’s little wonder that household spending in more “discretionary” areas has been so weak in recent years.
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Well-targeted personal income tax cuts could thus help to ameliorate this multi-faceted “squeeze” on household incomes, and provide a direct boost to the economy.
<h2>Do we need income tax cuts to make up for the fact that we haven’t had a pay rise in a while?</h2>
<blockquote>
It’s been a long time since any Australians had a decent pay rise…this is a real pressure on Australians…we can give them some relief when it comes to their personal income tax.
</blockquote>
- Treasurer Scott Morrison
The other major reason for the very slow growth in real household disposable income over the past few years has been the unprecedented slowdown in wages growth. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6345.0Main+Features1Dec%202017?OpenDocument">Wages have risen</a> at an average annual rate of just 2.2% over the past five years (only 0.3 of a percentage point above the inflation rate), down from 3.7% per annum over the preceding 12 years.
Although, as RBA Governor Phillip Lowe noted in <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-04-11" target="_blank">a speech</a> that “the latest data suggest that the rate of wages growth has now troughed”, he went on to warn that the pickup which the RBA expects “is likely to be only gradual”.
Recent experience in other advanced economies clearly suggests that the unemployment rate needs to be lower for longer than in previous business cycles before wages growth starts to pick up. So even assuming that Governor Lowe is right, it may be one or two years before Australian households can expect any meaningful improvement in their financial position from faster growth in their wages or salaries.
Well targeted personal income tax cuts could help provide at least some offset to this likely continuing stagnation in wages growth over the next year or so.
<h2>What’s the verdict?</h2>
Targeted personal income tax cuts could reduce the squeeze on households and make up for persistent low wages.
Of course, it remains crucial that any cuts in personal income tax be sustainable - that is, that they are not funded by bigger deficits, and do not materially detract from the task of putting the nation’s public finances on a sounder footing. This is so we are better placed to withstand any unforeseen economic shocks.
And it’s important to remember that government spending has moved to what appears to be a permanently higher level as a proportion of GDP since the financial crisis. The government’s underlying cash payments averaged 25% of GDP from 2011-12 through 2017-18, up from 24% from 2001-02 through 2007-08. That also represents a constraint on the scope for tax cuts.
However, the apparently greater improvement in the budget <a href="https://www.finance.gov.au/sites/default/files/feb-mfs-2018.pdf" target="_blank">so far this financial year</a>, compared with what was forecast as recently as last December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, could give the government a little more latitude for financially sustainable personal income tax cuts in the upcoming budget.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94500/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Perhaps the most sustainable way of providing the “relief” which the treasurer says many Australian households need, would be to abandon the tax cut for companies turning over more than A$50 million a year. The government hasn’t been able to get these through the Senate. These cuts would do far less to boost the Australian economy than well-targeted personal income tax cuts of a similar order of magnitude.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-policy-check-does-australia-need-personal-income-tax-cuts-94500" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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