Supply

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When researching the market, it is important to understand what demand drivers can push up property prices in the long term. But an often underestimated factor is the supply side of the equation.  
An oversupplied market can jeopardise that important growth you are looking for when investing in property for the long-term. But how do you factor in future supply? 
A first good indicator of a future supply issue can be uncovered by asking yourself how easily your investment can be replicated by others. In other words, how much competition will your property have in the future? This is important to know, as high supply signals more competition in the market, therefore your ability to command a premium price is reduced. 
Take for example the areas on the fringe of suburbia, with large tracts of undeveloped land nearby. Achieving a high price for a property in these areas may prove difficult, because similar properties are readily available in new land subdivisions nearby. 
If you are looking for capital growth, it is often a better choice to go for a property in an established area with high demand and little room for expansion. Similarly, high-demand areas that are “land-locked” by hills or bodies of water can limit future supply and put upwards pressure on prices. 
It is also a good idea to check the zoning regulations of any area you believe is of interest. 
Local councils use residential zoning to regulate housing density. An area that is zoned to allow high-density apartments or townhouses could raise some red flags, because development could bring an oversupply of these dwelling types to the area which could negatively impact your own investment plans. It is very easy for others to build properties much the same as yours nearby. 
At Momentum Wealth, we carefully consider supply factors when assessing potential properties for clients. We identify localities in which there is likely to be little competition and we focus on properties with unique and highly valued features. We also tend to avoid areas in which there is a lot of free land for expansion while keeping an eye on zoning and development issues. 
If you would like to learn more about professional research strategies, <a href="https://wvw.momentumwealth.com.au/ResearchEbook?utm_source=Property+Observer&amp;utm_medium=Ebook&amp;utm_campaign=Ebooks" target="_blank">check out our new ebook ” How to find investment-grade properties using professional research principles”.</a> 
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Supply: the forgotten part of the property investment equation

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The gap between housing demand and supply is narrowing according to figures released by CoreLogic RP Data.
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The CoreLogic RP Data Housing Market and Economic Update for August 2015 has tracked total quarterly dwelling approvals against the quarterly change in population growth.
 
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<a href="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2010.04.53%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Gap between housing demand and supply narrowing: CoreLogic RP Data

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Potential property investors are warned to be wary of apartment purchases in sub-markets where supply levels are heightened or where there is a strong pipeline of apartment supply.
According to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index Results for August, apartment supply has ramped up substantially more than detached housing supply.
CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said it has generally been the case throughout this cycle, and previous cycles, that house values have risen at a faster rate than unit values.
“However, over the past three months across every capital city except Melbourne and Brisbane, it has been the apartment sector that has shown the stronger growth result,” he said. 
"Unit values have recently shown a higher rate of growth than detached houses, with values rising 0.8% over the month compared with a 0.3% rise in house values. The rolling quarterly rate of growth was also higher for units at 6.7% compared with 5.1% across the detached sector.
“Sub-markets where supply levels are heightened, or the pipeline of apartment supply is substantial, should still be viewed with some caution.
“This result comes at a time when apartment supply has ramped up substantially more than detached housing supply. To see such a broad-based over performance of units relative to houses, provides some comfort for developers and purchasers that higher density stock values are appreciating."
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Warning on sub-market apartment purchases: Tim Lawless

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The Australian government is developing a <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/national-strategy.aspx" target="_blank">national freight and supply chain strategy</a>. As part of that effort, we created a set of scenarios describing what Australia’s future might look like 20 years from now. In evaluations by a large number of experts of all the future drivers of change we identified, two emerged as the most powerful and uncertain: widespread use of automation, and increased pressure to become environmentally sustainable.
We also explored what Australia should do to remain successful in each of these possible futures. Each scenario was crafted as a rich description of the future, full of elements relevant to supply chains and freight.
To illustrate what the world might look like in each of these futures, several “news articles” accompany the scenarios. They tell us of a fleet of robots that deliver parcels by air and ground directly to Australian homes. They describe a container of Australian wines travelling from Victoria to Shanghai without human intervention, using <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/technology/autonomous-ghost-ships-are-coming-to-revolutionise-freight-20170905-gyatcs" target="_blank">autonomous ships</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/autonomous-vehicles-1007" target="_blank">vehicles</a>.
In one scenario, China has become the sole dominant power in its half of the planet. In another, the world economy has fragmented into blocks, with barely any trade between them. Cyber-attacks, terrorism and slander are used as weapons to disrupt supply chains in one scenario. In another, a whole new generation of consumers, the Alphas, demands high levels of service and fast delivery in everything they buy.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/223700/original/file-20180619-38819-18mkm61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/223700/original/file-20180619-38819-18mkm61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Container terminals have long used autonomous vehicles and machinery, and autonomous ships are on the way.<a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:9-028_Rotterdam_ECT.jpg"> </a>
<h2>How did we create these scenarios?</h2>
We started by asking 52 experts in freight and supply chains about things they expect will be different two decades from now. These interviews revealed more than 200 future drivers of change. We validated these in a survey with an even larger group of experts.
We then used 32 families of these drivers as the building blocks to create <a href="http://cscl.space/scenarios" target="_blank">four scenarios</a>:
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<a href="http://cscl.space/scenarios/s1.pdf" target="_blank">The Rise of the Machines</a> – a world where technology dominates everything we do</li>
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<a href="http://cscl.space/scenarios/s2.pdf" target="_blank">Enter the Dragon</a> – China is the dominant force in an increasingly fragmented world</li>
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<a href="http://cscl.space/scenarios/s3.pdf" target="_blank">Flat, Crowded and Divided</a> – Australia’s population has soared, to the point that easy access to cheap labour has nullified any hopes of a technological revolution</li>
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<a href="http://cscl.space/scenarios/s4.pdf" target="_blank">Big Brother Goes Green</a> – the effects of climate change are increasingly real, and both governments and savvy consumers demand that companies meet high environmental standards.</li>
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We made sure that each scenario was plausible and internally consistent. The scenarios were designed to be very different from the present and from each other, and to complement each other as a group.
While these scenarios are fun to read and thoroughly grounded in data, they are not predictions. Their purpose is not to forecast what the world will look like in 20 years.
Instead, the scenarios present us with several versions of what the world might look like. Their purpose is to help us prepare for what the future could bring. I like to think of scenario planning as a vaccine against future surprises.
The four scenarios served as the stage for a series of workshops conducted across Australia with a total of 90 experts. In these workshops, the experts discussed the challenges and opportunities each scenario presents for Australia’s freight and supply chains. They proposed ways for Australia to be successful in each scenario, and compared notes on suggestions that worked well across multiple scenarios.
We collected more than 15,000 words’ worth of handwritten expert recommendations in our four workshops. We transcribed and analysed all of them, and prepared a complete summary of the most frequent and robust ideas. These are included in our project’s <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/freight-supply-chain-priorities/research-papers/files/Scenario_planning_report.pdf" target="_blank">final report</a>.
<h2>So what do the experts recommend?</h2>
In the experts’ recommendations, it is easy to identify three major themes that are common to all four scenarios.
The first is the ever-growing importance of data. For Australia to be successful in any of the futures we envisioned, large amounts of relevant, timely and reliable data must be gathered and shared. This will require open and common data standards to be developed. The need to protect confidentiality will have to be balanced with the need to share data.
The second major theme is the need to educate for the future. Training in robotics, automation, artificial intelligence (AI) and data analysis should be widely available. A focus on science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) should start in Year 1. Workers who are displaced by new technologies should be retrained, so they can re-enter the workforce.
The third major theme is the need to rethink regulation. For Australia to be successful in any of the futures we explored, it is necessary to simplify, standardise and harmonise regulations across levels of government and geographies. Regulations, and the process to create them, must become more flexible and agile, so as to promote innovation.
There are other robust recommendations that, according to the experts, are necessary in all four scenarios.
One is to make exports a strategic priority of national importance. Making exports faster and easier was recommended.
Another is the need for cities to include logistics in their plans from the start, not as an afterthought.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98249/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The many insights obtained in our project are informing the freight and supply chain strategy that the Australian government is creating. These will help those making long-term decisions to avoid future surprises that might not have been anticipated without a systematic examination of the many possible futures before us.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roberto-perez-franco-497942" target="_blank">Roberto Perez-Franco</a>, Senior Research Fellow – Supply Chain Strategy, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757" target="_blank">Deakin University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-freight-and-supply-chains-look-like-20-years-from-now-experts-ponder-the-scenarios-98249" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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