Stock Market

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It’s been a shaky start to 2016 for global stock markets, with substantial falls across all international markets, followed by some weak rallies.</p>
<p>The overall decline has been partly blamed on the price of crude oil, which is hovering around US $30 a barrel down from $100 over a year ago, along with market fears on the overall health of the Chinese economy.</p>
<p>The headlines tell us markets are sinking in the sea of oil. A measure of fear in the stock market, the widely quoted Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, is also closely tracking the oil price, adding to the gloomy picture.</p>
<p>However the most likely driver of further market deterioration is not a further decline in oil prices, but the negative sentiment itself. This is due to a flaw in the way analysts ascribe value in markets that <a href="">behavioural economists</a> call “anchoring bias”.</p>
<p>This is the idea that people tend to start from what they know and then attempt to make appropriate adjustments based on this. Over 40 years of research has found that these adjustments tend to be insufficient.</p>
<p>Everyone can be prone to this bias, there are a few studies that demonstrate this. For example, when people were asked which year George Washington became the first US President, most would start from the year the US became a country (in 1776). They would reason that it might have taken a few years after that to elect the first president so they add a few years to 1776 to work it out, coming to an answer of 1778 or 1779. George Washington actually became president in 1789.</p>
<p>Similarly, most people would know the freezing point of water (0 degrees celcius) as compared to vodka. So if they were asked what the freezing temperature of vodka is, they would tend to start from 0 and adjust downwards. The freezing temperature of vodka is around -24 degrees celcius, much lower than what people usually answer.</p>
<p>Both these examples demonstrate how the reasoning associated with anchoring bias leads to people falling significantly short of the right answer.</p>
<p>In the case of the stock market, analysts look to the performance of blue-chip stocks linked to commodities like oil because they are associated with large, well established companies with time-tested business models. There are large data sets available with which to analyse these stocks.</p>
<p>However less than 4% of companies are classified as blue-chips globally. What about the remaining 96%? To value them, analysts may start from the payoffs of blue-chips and then attempt to make appropriate adjustments for size and other differences.</p>
<p>The overreaction of the market in relation to oil prices is further exposed by the fact that lower oil prices aren’t all bad news. Low oil prices can be good for countries that import oil as well as their consumers, retailers and industry. Higher production of goods drives cheaper prices leaving more money in the pockets of consumers to spend.</p>
<p>Other economic indicators also tell a very different story to the oil price. Job numbers are good both in the European region and US, and growth seems to be picking up.</p>
<p>In fact, based on encouraging data, Fed has recently raised interest rates for the first time after nine years. The slowdown in China is not the giant collapse that some were fearing.</p>
<p>If analysts and investors continue to display anchoring bias and the oil price drops, it could become a self fulfilling prophecy where a prolonged market slump cuts off investment, reduces consumption, and pushes the global economy into a recession. Central banks will do what they can to prevent this from happening by talking of quantitative easing. However, the interest rates are already near zero so they do not have much room to move.</p>
<p class="x_author"><span class="fn author-name">Hammad Siddiqi is r</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">esearch fellow in Financial Economics, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hammad-siddiqi-156874" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
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Property 101: Behavioural economics: How hidden bias is sinking global stock markets

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div>The Crestmont P/E is still levitating 119 per cent above its arithmetic mean, and remains close to the highest level in history at 33. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the tech bubble/bust the Crestmont P/E rose above 25 (denoting 'irrational exuberance') and momentarily touched the current record high of 33.7 before promptly crashing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In 1929 ahead of the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression the Crestmont P/E peaked at 26.4.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And before the subprime financial crisis it peaked at 24.7.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Here's the chart update until today:</em></div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3OpG8WGx6R8/XwAw2raZRTI/AAAAAAAA2ss/6lECqCwqzYIqVsn2irGMCfU5I2iE47ZcwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CRESTMONT.jpg" width="640" height="464" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910"></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Advisor Perspectives</em></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em> </em></span></div>
<div>Earnings reports will be interesting to follow this year given that there's been a severe disruption to global economic activity in 2020. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back in Australia earnings expectations have been revised dramatically lower, for five sectors in particular:<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hA2yfrVmGiQ/XwAzRldfhYI/AAAAAAAA2tA/L69X-IeDMckAKMoKCDByQfFqgkdgotd4wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/MS.jpg" width="572" height="640" data-original-height="1395" data-original-width="1248"></div>
<div>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><br></em></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Morgan Stanley</em></span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Markets are forward-looking of course, but this puts PE valuations for the ASX 200 at extremely lofty levels. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7P8zzlWlhkU/XwAzb7cvj8I/AAAAAAAA2tE/jVLQ1ildzGk5tgTdxfgwdp5Qu4w8fG22gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/MS2.jpg" width="640" height="400" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Morgan Stanley</em></span></div>
<p id="post-body-7807194319875705440" class="post-body entry-content">This would not be a good time to disappoint markets with an earnings miss, you'd think.</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><strong>Pete Wargent</strong><span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger</span><strong> </strong></p>
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Where are markets heading with nosebleed valuations: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Golly. My word there's some crappy economic data doing the rounds globally at the moment - the commodity markets smash-up continuing to take front and centre stage, while China's manufacturing activity gauge slumping to a 77 month low for good measure.</span></p>
<p><span>The commodity price exuberance was in part an echo of China's own property market largesse. Or if bubbles are your thing - and they seem to be all the rage these days - an echo-bubble of China's property bubble.</span></p>
<p><span>With stock markets in the business of tanking anywhere and everywhere from the US to the UK, Australia, China, Japan and...well, pretty much all over the show to be honest...perhaps it's no surprise that real estate is sifting back in favour togiven record low borrowing rates around the developed world.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Aussie stocks are well on track for their worst month since the global financial crisis having wiped close to 9 per cent off their value already in the month of August alone, while UK stocks have already meandered into correction territory.</span></p>
<p><span>On the flip side for British investment markets, the UK Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that UK mortgage lending has bolted to its highest level in seven years - since before the financial crisis fallout - at an estimated £22 billion for the month (where is the pound symbol on keyboards these days, by the way?).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>This is particularly noteworthy for Australian investors since the United Kingdom introduced macro-prudential measures of its own to its housing market back in 2014 in the form of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the impacts of the MMR are already receding into the rear view mirror - and with interest rates still stuck at rock bottom at the effective "zero lower bound" - mortgage lending appears to be ripping higher again.<br><br>The key point here being that while macro-prudential markets may be designed to effectively slow the market, they don't take away the demand for property completely or permanently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Hometrack</em> noted that Cambridge, Oxford and the English capital city of London are continuing to lead the way in terms of capital growth over the past year, which will come to no surprise to readers of my book <em>Get a Financial Grip</em> from some years ago, of course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>What's more, the boom could be only just be </span><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/11815503/House-prices-soar-in-major-UK-cities-and-this-is-just-the-beginning" target="_blank">in its infancy</a><span>.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Australia - 3 positives for property in 2016?</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the implementation of macro-prudential measures in Australia whereby APRA will aim to cap investor lending credit growth at around 10 per cent per annum, there are three other forces which may conspire to see 2016 being a strong year for property.</div>
<br><div>Firstly, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/josh-frydenberg-flags-no-ban-on-smsf-property-borrowing-20150820-gj4amh" target="_blank">reportedly</a> flagged that there will no banning of SMSF property borrowing, which could come as something of an upside surprise for capital city property markets, although those without substantial deposits may find real estate investment via their SMSF a tough proposition.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, does anyone else think that interest rates are on the "<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/the-long-slow-march-to-zero" target="_blank">long, slow march to zero</a>"? I can't predict the future, of course, but put it this way - I wouldn't be betting against it! </div>
<div>
<br>The cash rate futures implied yield curve suggests that markets area already looking for another interest rate cut to 1.75 per cent by the second half of 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to know where to start with commodity prices crash. The iron ore and coal correction, of course, has been one for the ages. Crude futures have hit upon a deadly slick.<br><br>"Dr. Copper" is testing 6 year lows and toying with financial crisis depths while lurking below US$2.30/lb. Precious metals are miles below their peaks...and on the list goes.<br><br>Ordinarily one might say that this will be bad news for property markets and investor sentiment, yet realistically with mortgage rates falling towards record lows and cash in the bank paying essentially nothing worthwhile after inflation, where else are Aussies going to invest their money?<br><br>Into our tanking and resources-heavy stock market? Hmm, not so sure about that.</div>
<br><div>Thirdly, with APRA targeting investor loans banks and lenders are likely to go all in on targeting owner-occupier lending.<br><br>HSBC are already now <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/owneroccupiers-targeted-with-interest-rate-deals-20150820-gj42mv" target="_blank">offering</a> variable rate mortgages from 3.99 per cent, with is just unbelievably cheap. We might expect to see other banks to follow suit. </div>
<br><div>
<em><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/" target="_blank">CoreLogic-RP Data</a></em>'s index shows that Sydney home values are up by 1 per cent in first three weeks of August alone and a stonking 18.2 per cent over the past year. It's turning into a monster property boom, with Sydney dwelling values now up by more than 50 per cent since 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>With Sydney inching closer to its market peak, investors are increasingly shaping up to scope out Brisbane for better value, with investor lending on a 12mMA basis now tracking at its highest level since April 2008.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Sure, APRA's investor lending crackdown will jam a stick in the spokes for a while, but meanwhile Queensland owner-occupier lending has also ghosted past five year highs on a 12mMA basis, after a subdued half decade. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>And remember the Queensland figures are being dragged down by any number of mining towns and regions which are experiencing negative demand i.e. recessionary conditions.</span><br><br><span>Brisbane could be the one to watch in 2016.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Three positives for property in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Capital city property prices fell -1.8 per cent in Q2 as the economy was locked down, but remained 6.2 per cent higher than a year earlier.</p>
<div id="post-body-3176455207556079318" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wt_bnMoxINA/X2EfhwjIJiI/AAAAAAAA4PI/AIayQsg6q6U7klZAewxh6aCnj9s2DBAUACNcBGAsYHQ/s1394/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wt_bnMoxINA/X2EfhwjIJiI/AAAAAAAA4PI/AIayQsg6q6U7klZAewxh6aCnj9s2DBAUACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h374/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1394"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The decline was driven, according to the ABS, thus:</div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em><span><strong>"The falls in residential property prices were led by the Sydney (-2.2 per cent) and Melbourne (-2.3 per cent) property markets. </strong></span></em></div>
<div><em><span><strong> </strong></span></em></div>
<div><em><span><strong>House prices fell 2.6 per cent in Sydney and 2.8 per cent in Melbourne, while attached dwelling prices fell 1.4 per cent in Sydney and 1.0 per cent in Melbourne."</strong></span></em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GVOjUcN-Z3w/X2Efh_eb1zI/AAAAAAAA4PE/o3KD9pl1Ed4ULLuM86avp4GK29IBZ6tIQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1433/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GVOjUcN-Z3w/X2Efh_eb1zI/AAAAAAAA4PE/o3KD9pl1Ed4ULLuM86avp4GK29IBZ6tIQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h364/A2.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1433"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The mean dwelling prices by state and territory followed the same pattern. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ioBluOFeDT8/X2EfhxY0ajI/AAAAAAAA4PA/_Q6G9nFJoGAUyVNO0DbR_BlxwQueh81dgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1415/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ioBluOFeDT8/X2EfhxY0ajI/AAAAAAAA4PA/_Q6G9nFJoGAUyVNO0DbR_BlxwQueh81dgCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h374/A3.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1415"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Transaction levels were very low, but as far as could be estimated the value of the dwelling stock of 10.52 million dwellings declined in value by about $100 billion to $7.14 trillion.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1r6Ovttu7Ss/X2Efis2Nc-I/AAAAAAAA4PM/RvGOxtIynywaXSnDvFk9VhS7hQCymefRgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1421/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1r6Ovttu7Ss/X2Efis2Nc-I/AAAAAAAA4PM/RvGOxtIynywaXSnDvFk9VhS7hQCymefRgCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h366/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1421"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>More timely data from CoreLogic suggests that prices have essentially now stopped declining, except in Melbourne where falls have continued due to the ongoing lockdown.</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><span> </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Property prices dip 1.8% in Q2: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Interesting move from the birthday boy Warren Buffett, swinging hard into Japanese stocks.</p>
<p>Japan's stock market was arguably the biggest bubble in history, accounting for nearly half the global market cap at one stage.</p>
<p>Even the US only hit half of Japan's lofty peaks as measured by CAPE during the tech exuberance.</p>
<p>Japan took 30 years to reach fair value, after land values fell the country sank into deflation with its ageing and declining population.</p>
<p>The US market now looks very expensive again, while the UK looks relatively cheap by comparison.</p>
<p>Australia lies in the middle, with quite a bit (as ever) resting on your views on the outlook for banks.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U4PeFvbZUCo/X0w_k08hi5I/AAAAAAAA33k/WHn2YfsV7q8PmF4F532STWkVhNDyFp9SwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Japan%2BCAPE.jpg" width="640" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1382"></p>
<p>Buffett has bought shares in Japan's five largest trading companies, including Mitsubishi and Sumitomo, perhaps in part a foreign currency play.</p>
<p>This equates to an investment of about $6.25 billion per CNBC, and Buffett may increase holdings up to 9.9 per cent stakes, to be held for the long term.</p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><span> </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Warren Buffet swings billions into Japanese stocks: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The recent collapse in the Chinese share market was preceded by a boom – a boom that was, in turn, fuelled by relaxed restrictions on margin lending, and a growth in the shadow banking sector<a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21601872/">.</a> Both served as inducements for Chinese retail investors to borrow in order to invest in a rising stock market.</p>
<p>The central bank urged people to buy local stocks, cut interest rates, and reduced the required reserve ratio for banks to free up more funds for lending. What could go wrong!</p>
<p>Since late 2013, Chinese authorities have pursued a policy of further opening up the capital markets. The aim has been to “internationalise” the local currency, the yuan (renminbi or “people’s money”), and to link the local stock exchanges to international markets. A major milestone was reached when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (also known as the “Through Train”) was launched in November 2014. This scheme now allows Hong Kong investors to trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and provides a channel for mainland capital into the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx) - further increasing the internationalisation of Chinese outbound investment.</p>
<p>The Chinese share markets (China has two national bourses, one in Shanghai and one in Shenzhen) are dominated by retail investment, and its 90 million retail investors have fuelled much of the growth.</p>
<p>Given the youth of the Chinese markets (born in 1990), Chinese retail investors are, by definition, inexperienced and prone, like any adolescent, to bouts of exuberance. Along with the <a href="https://www.kpmg.com/cn/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/China-Capital-Markets-FTSE-201106.pdf" target="_blank">stock market boom</a>, even more rapid rises in the value of the two exchanges have been driven by government measures aimed at encouraging money out of the over-heated property markets and into corporate equity<a href="https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/chinas-stock-market-valuation-grew-by-6-5-trillion-in-just-12-months-cw/2015/06/09/">.</a></p>
<p>The property bubble which has hit many Chinese cities has been worrying the authorities since at least 2010, and efforts have been made to crack down on property speculation and investment-driven demand. Home purchase restrictions where first put into place in 2010, and in March 2013 Beijing called for stricter enforcement of a 20% capital gains tax on home sale profits. It also asked cities with fast property price increases to raise the down payment requiremen<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.cnbc.com/id/100516350">t</a> and mortgage rate on second homes.</p>
<p>Damping down the property market is one part of China’s longer-term strategy to move away from its old model of high and increasing levels of investment, especially in industrial activity and urban infrastructure. The new model is based on lower investment, more subdued (more sustainable) growth and higher domestic consumption more in line with shifting national priorities towards improving the quality of air, water and living standards for more Chinese people.</p>
<p>By June last year analysts were warning that investor confidence in the domestic Chinese A-share market (A-shares are denominated in renminbi, B-shares in foreign currency) had been “weak for quite some time”. So when the Chinese banking authorities cracked down on margin lending in June, and the banks began to call in their margin loans, already fragile investor confidence collapsed quickly - and the market fell with it. Those falls continued this week, despite moves by Chinese authorities to restore confidence.</p>
<p>The Chinese authorities have reacted instinctively – the same way that authoritarian regimes everywhere react. They sought to rectify. Rectification in this case has been very restrained by Chinese standards, but even restrained intervention has meant the introduction of a slew of measures aimed at halting the free fall and stabilising the market. These have included temporary halts on trading on over half of all China-listed stocks, a six-month ban on major shareholders selling listed stocks, postponement of approved new listings (IPOs - initial public offerings) and suspension of new IPO approvals.</p>
<p>The Ministry of Public Security began investigations into <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1838247/chinese-police-find-signs-illegal-share-trading">“</a>malicious short selling” and some “suspicious foreign banks” (even the global market index provider MSCI was blame<a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1838214/msci-joins-list-reasons-china-market-crash">d</a> for the market crash).</p>
<p>The authorities also ordered major brokerages to increase their investments and further cut interest rates. The People’s Bank of China even announced it would provide liquidity support to the China Security Finance Corporation, which oversees the margin financing of brokers.</p>
<h2>Irrational exuberance</h2>
<p>As Robert Shiller explained in 2000, well before the global financial crisis, all markets experience periods of irrational exuberance. Nor should it surprise anyone that a market as young and uneducated as the Chinese market should be more volatile that most.</p>
<p>The real question now is what effect recent stock market volatility will have on the “real” Chinese economy. The first point here is that the Chinese stock index is not closely linked with the macro economy and is not an indicator for economic trends. Second, most financing does not come from the stock market, but from bank loans. Of <a href="https://cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-research-and-information/research-publications/Documents/Research-2015/Chinas_capital_markets.pdf" target="_blank">total social financing</a> in 2014, only 2.6% came from the stock market, while bank loans accounted for 59%.</p>
<p>As the Chinese share markets stabilise around a new lower level, if the money lost from the market goes into real consumption, that could potentially even be good for the economy.</p>
<p>If money lost from the markets simply vaporises in the form of bad loans, gambling losses and corrupt payments, then that will be a significant loss, but one which an economy the size of China’s can bear. The net result, as often occurs with such events, will probably be a transfer of wealth from ordinary Chinese to the wealthy, including many major shareholders who have cashed out.</p>
<p>Ambitious plans for full yuan convertibility under the capital account will probably be delayed as the Chinese authorities become more cautious in their approach. In the longer term, the Chinese authorities, at the very least, will need to establish clearer measures for risk evaluation and responsibility, and begin to educate retail investors.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">Alice de Jonge is senior lecturer, International Law; Asian Business Law at Monash University and an author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alice-de-jonge-118840" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p class="role"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </strong></p>
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China’s market lesson will be one of wealth transfer

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<p><span>Juwai.com, China's biggest international real estate portal, is seeking an initial public offering as early as this year, according to Bloomberg.</span></p>
<p><span>The firm was raising funds from institutional investors and strategic partners before selling shares in a public offering at the end of the year or in early 2017, Juwai chief executive Charles Pittar said in Tokyo on Friday. </span></p>
<p><span>Juwai, which is based in Hong Kong and Shanghai, has two million unique visitors per month and means "Living Abroad".</span></p>
<p><span>It connects Chinese buyers with brokers overseas through 2.5 million listings on its website.</span></p>
<p><span>The company was founded by Australians Andrew Taylor and Simon Henry. <em>The Australian</em> reported its investors have included Simon Clausen.</span></p>
<p><span>Last year, Juwai reported unique users were up nearly 70 percent to 2.5 million a month.</span></p>
<p><span>Its property listings more than doubled to 4.5 million across 60 countries. </span></p>
<p><span>Juwai's users have a budget of $US2.6 million ($3.4 million) on average, the company's presentation materials say, though typically looking for homes ranging in price from $US500,000 to $US1.5 million.</span></p>
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Juwai.com to float

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<p>Queensland's biggest builder, Impact Homes, has taken a 4.9 percent stake in its rival, the Simonds Group.</p>
<p>McDonald Jones, the biggest builder in NSW, also holds just over 5 per cent of the ASX-listed stock. </p>
<p>Last month Gary Simonds reached an agreement with Melbourne's wealthy Roche family to take the home builder private with shareholders to vote on the plan in early November.</p>
<p>The Simonds family who own 39 percent of the stock are unable to vote on the scheme.</p>
<p>Simonds posted a $14.9 million annual loss for fiscal 2016.</p>
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